A Ceasefire and Armistice in the Russia-Ukraine War Will Take Much Longer Than We Want

Tamara Lorenz, Ann Wright, Krista Bluesmith

By Colonel (Ret) Ann Wright, World BEYOND War, June 13, 2023

Negotiations, ceasefires, armistices and peace agreements are as old as wars themselves.

Every war ends with some version of one of them.

The wars have been studied endlessly, but lessons learned on how to end the wars have generally been ignored by those conducting the world’s latest wars.

To stop the killing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, people of conscience must do everything we can to make negotiations for a ceasefire become a reality—and that was the purpose of the International Summit for Peace in Ukraine held in Vienna, Austria, June 10-11, 2023.  Over 300 persons from 32 countries attended the conference and participated in the robust program to discuss how to create conditions for a ceasefire and ultimately an agreement to stop the killing.   The websites for the International Peace Bureau and the Peace in Ukraine summit were hacked the day after the conference but should be up and running soon.

History Reveals That Negotiations for a Ceasefire, Armistice and Peace take a long time

If history is our guide, negotiations for peace will take weeks, months, or perhaps years, to get Ukraine and its allies to agree on a negotiating strategy—and even longer to come to an agreement with Russia after negotiations begin.

Even if all parties, Ukraine, Russia, U.S./NATO, would agree to negotiations tomorrow, and if the talks would ultimately succeed, it could possibly be months or years before the killing would end. That’s why negotiations must begin NOW!

History gives us an important insight into negotiations during a war and what we might expect to end today’s extremely dangerous international violence.

Negotiations for Peace on the Korea Peninsula and in Viet Nam

In the case of the Korean armistice finally signed 70 years ago on July 27, 1953, 575 meetings between North Korea, China, the US and South Korea were required over two years from 1951 to 1953 to finalize the nearly 40 pages of the agreement. During those two years, millions of Koreans, 500,000 Chinese and 35,000 U.S. and tens of thousands of UN Command soldiers were killed.

Fifteen years later, U.S. and North Vietnamese representatives met in Paris on May 10, 1968 to begin peace negotiations, the first time negotiators from both nations met face-to-face. Formal negotiations opened three days later, but immediately came to a standstill.

Five years after the 1968 meeting, on January 27, 1973, the “Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam,” otherwise known the Paris Peace Accords, was signed by the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, the Republic of Vietnam, the Provisional Revolutionary Government (Viet Cong), and the United States.

The Paris Peace Accords officially ended U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War, although the majority of U.S. troops would not leave until August 1973 and the fighting between North and South Vietnam continued until April 30, 1975, when North Vietnamese Army (NVA) tanks rolled through the gate of the Presidential Palace in Saigon, South Vietnam effectively ending the war.  Millions of Vietnamese and tens of thousands of U.S. military were killed during the years of negotiations.

We know much about the lead-up to negotiations to end the U.S. war on Viet Nam.

In a nationally televised speech on March 31,1968 President Johnson announced that he was “taking the first step to de-escalate the conflict” by halting the bombing of North Vietnam (except in the areas near the DMZ) and that the United States was prepared to send representatives to any forum to seek a negotiated end to the war.

Johnson followed this declaration with surprising news that he did not intend to seek reelection that year.

Three days later Hanoi announced that it was prepared to talk to the Americans. Discussions began in Paris on May 13 but led nowhere. Hanoi insisted that, before serious negotiations could begin, the United States would have to halt its bombing of the rest of Vietnam.

However, fierce fighting continued. The North Vietnamese high command followed the Tet attacks with two more waves in May and August 1968. At the same time, U.S. General Westmoreland ordered his commanders to “keep maximum pressure” on the communist forces in the South, which he believed had been seriously weakened by their losses at Tet. The result was the fiercest fighting of the war.

In the eight weeks following Johnson’s speech, 3,700 Americans were killed in Vietnam and 18,000 wounded.  Westmoreland’s headquarters, which was notorious for inflated body counts, reported 43,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong killed. The South Vietnamese military’s (ARVN) losses were not recorded, but they were usually twice that of the U.S. forces.

After winning the 1968 election, President Nixon, with his National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, decided to follow the Tet offensive with a “maximum pressure” campaign with increased U.S. bombing of North Viet Nam and Cambodia which ended up with large death counts of North Vietnamese, South Vietnamese and Cambodians, as well as U.S. military.

“Maximum pressure” is already a part of the U.S./NATO approach to Russia with its extensive sanctions regime and its provision of a massive number of weapons to Ukraine.

48 Ceasefires between 1946 and 1997

We can look to many more examples of how negotiations ultimately have brought killing to an end in other conflicts .

Using data from 48 conflicts between 1946 and 1997, political scientist Virginia Page Fortna has shown that strong agreements that arrange for demilitarized zones, third-party guarantees, peacekeeping, or joint commissions for dispute resolution and contain specific (versus vague) language produced more lasting cease-fires that provide conditions for dialogue for an armistice or agreement.

Figuring out how to make the cease-fire be effective will be the key task.  Despite its less than stellar track record, the U.S. as a co-belligerent should work with the Ukrainian government figure out effective cease-fire measures.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has already described any new negotiations as “Minsk 3,” a reference to the two cease-fire deals that were brokered with Russia in the Belarusian capital in 2014 and 2015, after its annexation of Crimea and fighting in the Donbass region. The Minsk 1 and 2 agreements included no effective mechanisms for ensuring the parties’ compliance and failed to end the violence. Minsk 1 and 2 were later acknowledged by NATO and the European Union as a ploy for “buying time” for the West’s buildup of Ukrainian forces and equipment.

Studies of wars and Lessons Learned have been IGNORED by those Conducting Wars

Having been in the U.S. Army/Army Reserves for 29 years and working as a U.S. diplomat for 16 years, I can testify to the results of endless studies of the consequences of war, for example the year-long U.S. Department of State Iraq Study Group, being ignored by U.S. politicians and policy makers, and lessons learned on how to end deadly conflicts being ignored by U.S. military and national security experts.

Guide to Do’s and Don’ts of Ceasefire Agreements

I suspect that few Ukrainian, Russian, U.S. and NATO policy makers know of the United Nations’  18 page guide to the Do’s and Don’ts of Ceasefire Agreements, based on their experience in conflicts.

Therefore, for the record, I want to mention the main points of the “Do’s and Don’ts of Ceasefire Agreements,” so no one can say, “We Didn’t Know” such work has been done already and the pitfalls of ceasefire agreements well identified.

Each of the following elements has an entire section written about it in the 18-page guide.

PART A Who, When and Where

1. No room for ‘creative’ ambiguity;
2. The need for precision in regard to the geography of the ceasefire;
3. The need for a precise specification of the dates and times on which the obligations imposed by the ceasefire fall due;
4. Designating or qualifying permitted activities;
5. Application of the provisions of the agreement to all members of all armed forces.

PART B Monitoring and Enforcement

6. Provision for monitoring;
7. Verification;
8. Complaints mechanism;
9. Enforcement;
10. Providing for the political resolution of disputes by the parties.

PART C Organization and Conduct of Armed Forces

11. Military Mission and Mandate;
12. Codes of Conduct;
13. Confidence building measures;
14. Long term treatment of combatants and casualties;
15. Command & Control;
16. Liaison & Information Exchange;
17. Integration;
18. Disarmament, Demobilization and Downsizing.

PART D Humanitarian matters

19. Demining & Civilian Protection Generally;
20. POW’s and other Political Prisoners;
21. Free movement of goods, people and aid;
22. Dealing with the past.

PART E Implementation

23. Funding
24. Information to rank & file & to civilians
25. Verification of size of forces
26. Amendment of the agreement
27. Anticipating lead times
28. Avoiding Media Warfare
29. Collateral Agreements/Legislation
30. Civil Security
31. Buy-in by Regional Powers

What Else Can Be Done?  U.S. appoint a Conflict Diplomacy Special Presidential Envoy

To show how militarized is the U.S. government’s thinking, while an entire new U.S. military command element, the Security Assistance Group–Ukraine, led by a three-star general with a staff of 300, has been set up by the U.S. government, currently, there is not a single official in the U.S. government whose full-time job is conflict diplomacy to end the killing in the Russia-Ukraine war.

If the U.S. becomes serious about the loss of life in Ukraine, which it currently appears not to be, President Biden should appoint a special presidential envoy who can begin informal discussions with Ukraine and among its allies in the G-7 and NATO about the endgame of negotiations.

Additionally, the United States must establish a regular channel of communication regarding the war that includes Ukraine, U.S. allies, and Russia to allow participants to interact continually, instead of in one-off encounters.

This would be similar to the contact group model used during the Balkan wars, when an informal grouping of representatives from key states and international institutions met regularly and privately.

Will All Parties to a Ceasefire, Armistice, Peace Agreement Be Pleased?  NO is the Answer !

We must acknowledge that even if negotiations did produce a ceasefire and then an agreement of some sort, neither Ukraine, Russia, the U.S./NATO would be fully satisfied.

In spite of its recent history in Afghanistan and Iraq, many politicians, especially in the U.S. and now in Ukraine and Russia, want absolute victories, not long wars without a clear resolution.

But if we look to the Korean armistice, which was not viewed as the best U.S. foreign policy at the time it was signed, in the nearly 70 years after, the armistice has held and there has not been another war on the peninsula.  However, converting the armistice to a peace treaty has been one step to far for the U.S. while the North Koreans continue to ask for a peace declaration from the U.S/South Korea before they abandon their nuclear and missile programs.

In the case of the U.S. war on Viet Nam, 60 years later, after the 1973 peace agreement, the country has now become a trading partner of the U.S. and the West.

How the negotiations for a ceasefire would work out is anyone’s guess.

But a ceasefire followed by an armistice would give Ukraine the opportunity to end the destruction of more of its infrastructure, to begin recovering economically, and most importantly to end the death of more Ukrainians and the return of millions of Ukrainians to their homes.

An armistice would give the Russian Federation an opportunity to possibly come out from some of the sanctions the West has imposed, to work within the international community on common issues and end its military mobilization and the death of more Russians.

For the entire world, a Russian-Ukrainian armistice would reduce the risks of a direct military clash with the U.S./NATO that could include use of nuclear weapons with its terrible global consequences for all of us on this planet.

Campaign for a Global Ban on Weaponized Drones

At the International Summit on Peace in Ukraine, the “Campaign for a Global Ban on Weaponized Drones” was launched.  This campaign reflects the opinion of many in the world that the use of this weapons system should be ended by all countries.

We know it is an uphill battle to call for an end of types of military weapons and even if there are treaties enacted by the United Nations, such as on cluster munitions, land mines and nuclear weapons, some countries, lead by the United States, will not abide by the treaties.  But, as people of conscience, we must continue to act on what our conscience tells us is wrong.

People of Conscience must Work for Peace and Non-Violent Resolution of International Issues

Likewise, for people of conscience in this world, we must continue to work for peace and non-violent resolution of international issues despite our politicians seemingly thirst for continuation of violence in the name of peace.

About the Author:  Ann Wright retired as a Colonel after 29 years in the U.S. Army/Army Reserves.  She also was a U.S. diplomat and served in U.S. Embassies in Nicaragua, Grenada, Somalia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Micronesia, Afghanistan and Mongolia.  She resigned from the U.S. government in March 2003 in opposition to the U.S. war on Iraq.  She is the co-author of “Dissent: Voices of Conscience.”  She was a speaker in the plenary session on “Ceasefires and Negotiations” in the International Summit on Peace in Ukraine held in Vienna, Austria June 10-11, 2023.