使不可能变为可能：决定性十年中的联合运动政治

理查德·桑布鲁克（Richard Sandbrook），6年2020月XNUMX日

从 渐进式期货博客

The challenges appear overwhelming.挑战似乎势不可挡。 Getting nuclear weapons under control before they destroy us, preventing a climate meltdown and untold species extinction, defanging right-wing authoritarian nationalism, reconstructing a social contract attaining racial and class justice, and channeling the automation revolution into socially supportive channels: these interrelated problems are confounding in their complexity and in the political obstacles to the needed systemic changes.在核武器毁灭我们之前对其进行控制，防止气候变暖和不灭物种灭绝，破坏右翼专制民族主义，重建实现种族和阶级正义的社会契约，并将自动化革命引入社会支持渠道：这些相互关联的问题是混淆了它们的复杂性以及需要进行系统变革的政治障碍。

How can progressive activists respond effectively and quickly?积极的激进主义者如何有效而迅速地做出反应？ To make matters more difficult, people are understandably preoccupied with the day-to-day challenges of living with the pandemic.使事情变得更加困难的是，人们被困扰于大流行病的日常挑战，这是可以理解的。 What is the most promising strategy in these dire circumstances?在这些严峻的形势下，最有前途的策略是什么？ Can we make the impossible possible?我们能使不可能变为可能吗？

常规的政治不足

Relying on electoral politics and the submission of impressive briefs to elected officials and popular media are necessary activities, but insufficient as an effective strategy.依靠选举政治以及向当选官员和大众媒体提交令人印象深刻的简介是必要的活动，但不足以作为一项有效的战略。 The extent of the needed changes is just too far-reaching for the gradualism of politics as usual.对于通常的政治渐进主义而言，所需改变的程度太深远了。 Radical proposals meet with condemnation by the privately owned mass media and conservative parties, are watered down by lobbyists and public-opinion campaigns, and challenge the modus operandi of even progressive parties (such as the British Labour Party, the Democratic Party in the US), whose establishments demand moderation to appeal to the political middle.激进的提议遭到私有大众媒体和保守党的谴责，被游说者和公众舆论运动所淹没，甚至挑战进步党（例如英国工党，美国民主党）的作风。 ，其机构要求节制以吸引政治中间派。 Meanwhile, the voices of right-wing populism grow stronger.同时，右翼民粹主义的声音越来越强烈。 Politics as usual is not enough.像往常一样，政治还不够。

“灭绝叛乱”的口号“叛乱还是灭绝”向我们指出了更有效的政治-只要叛乱被理解为仅限于符合民主规范的非暴力政治行动。 Unity只能建立在结合了单发运动目标的程序上。 We need to replace the cacophony of voices with a single melody.我们需要用单一的旋律代替声音的刺耳声。

需要：统一的愿景

建立这样一个统一的运动是一项艰巨的任务。 “进步主义者”包括各种各样的人，包括左派自由主义者，社会民主主义者，各种说服力的社会主义者，种族，人权和经济正义的拥护者，一些工会，许多女权主义者，许多土著运动，大多数（但不是全部）气候活动家，以及大多数和平主义者。 进步主义者有很多不同意见。 他们在以下方面有所不同 基本问题的性质 （是资本主义，新自由主义，帝国主义，父权制，系统种族主义，专制民粹主义，运转不正常的民主制度，不平等还是某种组合？），因此它们在等价的解决方案。 最近出现的 进步国际 尽管存在分歧，但决心在全球进步人士中团结起来，是一个可喜的迹象。 “国际主义还是灭绝”2020年XNUMX月首届峰会的挑衅性标题证明了其雄心壮志。

哪种程序最能统一单发渐进运动的顾虑？ 绿色新政（GND）越来越被视为共同点。 该 飞跃宣言，是该计划在加拿大的前身，包含了大多数要素。 They included a transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050, the building of a more just society in the process, the enactment of higher, and new forms of, taxes, and a grassroots movement to back the needed changes and to deepen democracy.其中包括到XNUMX年过渡到XNUMX％可再生能源，在此过程中建立更公正的社会，颁布更高的税种和新形式的税，以及开展基层运动以支持必要的变革并加深民主。 Green New Deals, or programs with similar names, have been adopted widely, from the European Green Deal, to those of some national governments and many progressive parties and social movements.从欧洲绿色协议到一些国家政府，许多进步党和社会运动，已经广泛采用了绿色新政或类似名称的计划。 The degree of ambition varies, however.但是，野心的程度会有所不同。

GND不仅需要调整经济结构以在十到两年内实现净零碳排放，而且还涉及向可持续性的公正过渡，在此过程中，大多数人口都将从经济转变中受益。 Good jobs for those lost in the transition, free education and retraining at all levels, universal health care, free public transit and justice for indigenous and racialized groups are some of the proposals encompassed by this integrated program.这项综合方案包括了一些建议，使那些在过渡时期失去的人获得好工作，在各级接受免费教育和再培训，实现全民保健，免费公共交通以及为土著和种族群体提供司法救助。

例如，亚历山大·奥卡西奥·科尔特斯和埃德·马基赞助的GND以 分辨率 2019年美国众议院的选举遵循了这一逻辑。 Denounced as a socialist plot, the plan is closer to a被指责为社会主义阴谋，该计划更接近于 罗斯福新政 for the 21st century.面向10世纪。 It calls for a '100-year national mobilization' to achieve XNUMX% renewable energy, giant investments in infrastructure and a carbon-free economy, and jobs for all who want to work.它呼吁“十年全国动员”，以实现XNUMX％可再生能源，对基础设施和无碳经济的巨额投资以及为所有想工作的人提供工作。 Accompanying the transition are measures that are mainstream in Western welfare states: universal healthcare, free higher education, affordable housing, enhanced labour rights, a job guarantee, and remedies for racism.过渡时期伴随着西方福利国家的主流措施：全民医疗保健，免费高等教育，负担得起的住房，增强的劳动权利，工作保障和种族主义补救措施。 Enforcement of anti-trust laws would, if successful, weaken the economic and political power of oligopolies.如果成功执行反托拉斯法，将削弱寡头的经济和政治权力。 We can argue about the degree of systemic change that is needed.我们可以争论所需的系统性变化的程度。 Any effective plan, however, must garner support through a vision of a better life, not just fear.但是，任何有效的计划都必须通过改善生活的愿景获得支持，而不仅仅是恐惧。

GND是一个进步的项目，他们当然是对的，但是是否必须进行社会主义项目则有待商.。 It depends partly on one's definition of socialism.这部分取决于一个人对社会主义的定义。 For the sake of unity in a diverse movement, that debate is one we should avoid.为了在一个多元化的运动中团结一致，这一辩论是我们应避免的。

We need, in sum, to provide a hopeful message that a better world is not only possible but also winnable.总之，我们需要提供一个希望的信息，那就是，不仅有可能而且有可能赢得更美好的世界。 It is useless, even counter-productive, just to dwell on how dire the human prospect is.仅仅停留在人类前景的可怕上是没有用的，甚至适得其反。 To focus on the negative is to risk paralysis of the will.专注于消极情绪有使意志麻痹的风险。 And preaching to the converted may make us feel good;向the依者传道也许会使我们感到愉悦。 however, it serves only to build solidarity among a small and largely uninfluential group.但是，这仅是为了建立一个很小且基本上没有影响力的团体之间的团结。 We must learn to engage ordinary people (especially the young) in this, the decisive, decade.在这个决定性的十年中，我们必须学会让普通人（尤其是年轻人）参与进来。 It will not be easy because people are bombarded with information from all sides and remain fixated on the coronavirus threat.这不是一件容易的事，因为人们受到了来自四面八方的信息的轰炸，并始终盯着冠状病毒的威胁。 Attention spans are short.注意跨度很短。

我们需要一个 梦想, like Martin Luther King, and again like King, that dream must be simply stated, reasonable and realizable.就像马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King），再像金一样，那个梦想必须简单地陈述，合理且可实现。 Of course, we do not have a detailed road map for a just transition.当然，我们没有详细的路线图来进行公正的过渡。 But we cam agree on the direction we must head, and the social forces and agency that will carry us forward to that better world.但是我们同意我们必须前进的方向，以及将使我们迈向更美好世界的社会力量和代理。 We must appeal to the hearts as well as minds of people.我们必须呼吁人们的心灵。 Success will depend on a broad coalition of movements.成功将取决于广泛的运动联合。

联盟运动政治

What would such a coalition look like?这样的联盟会是什么样？ Is it conceivable that a progressive movement of movements might develop, within and across countries, to push an agenda like a Global Green New Deal?可以想象，在国家内部和国家之间可能会出现渐进式的运动，以推动诸如全球绿色新政这样的议程？ The challenge is massive, but within the realm of the possible.挑战是巨大的，但在可能的范围内。

This era is, after all, one of rebellion and grassroots action worldwide.毕竟，这个时代是全世界叛乱和基层行动之一。 The multi-dimensional socio-economic and ecological crisis is spurring political dissent.多维的社会经济和生态危机正在激起政治异议。 自1968年以来爆发的最广泛抗议浪潮于2019年爆发，尽管发生了大流行，但这一浪潮在2020年仍在继续。 Protests engulfed six continents and 114 countries, affecting liberal democracies as well as dictatorships.抗议席卷了六大洲和XNUMX个国家，影响了自由民主国家和独裁政权。 As如 罗宾·莱特· 观察 “纽约客” in December 2019, 'Movements have emerged overnight, out of nowhere, unleashing public fury on a global scale – from Paris and La Paz to Prague and Port-au-Prince, Beirut, to Bogota and Berlin, Catalonia to Cairo, and in Hong Kong, Harare, Santiago, Sydney, Seoul, Quito, Jakarta, Tehran, Algiers, Baghdad, Budapest, London, New Delhi, Manila and even Moscow.在1960年2020月，“行动在一夜之间无处不在，在全球范围内释放了公众的愤怒-从巴黎和拉巴斯到布拉格和太子港，贝鲁特，波哥大和柏林，加泰罗尼亚到开罗，以及香港香港，哈拉雷，圣地亚哥，悉尼，首尔，基多，雅加达，德黑兰，阿尔及尔，巴格达，布达佩斯，伦敦，新德里，马尼拉甚至莫斯科。 Taken together, the protests reflect unprecedented political mobilization.'.总之，抗议反映了前所未有的政治动员。 The United States, for instance, is undergoing the most extensive civil unrest since the XNUMXs' civil rights and anti-war protests, precipitated by the police killing of African-American George Floyd in May XNUMX. The protests not only sparked extensive protests worldwide, but also mobilized substantial support outside the black community.以美国为例，这是自XNUMX年代的民权和反战抗议以来最广泛的内乱，其原因是警察在XNUMX年XNUMX月杀害了非裔美国人乔治·弗洛伊德（George Floyd）。而且还动员了黑人社区以外的大量支持。

Although local irritants (such as a hike in transit fees) ignited the largely non-violent protests throughout the world, the protests vented virulent anger.尽管当地的刺激物（例如运输费的上涨）点燃了全世界范围内大部分非暴力的抗议活动，但抗议活动激起了强烈的愤怒。 A common theme was that self-serving elites had seized too much power and directed policy to self-aggrandizement.一个共同的主题是，自私自利的精英们夺取了太多权力，将政策导向了自我强化。 Popular rebellions signified, above all, the need to reconstruct broken social contracts and restore legitimacy.民众的叛乱首先意味着需要重建破碎的社会契约并恢复合法性。

We can just discern the stirrings of a movement of movements whose elements are moving beyond critiques towards an increasingly integrated program of structural change.我们只能辨别运动的动静，这些运动的要素已经从批判转向了日益一体化的结构变化计划。 Major strands include climate/environmental organizations, Black Lives Matter and the larger movement for racial/indigenous justice, movements for economic justice, including trade unions, and the peace movement.主要机构包括气候/环境组织，黑人生活问题和更大范围的种族/土著司法运动，包括工会在内的经济正义运动以及和平运动。 I have already alluded to the我已经提到过 气候运动。 尽管环保主义者跨意识形态， 失控的气候变化和采取迅速，根本行动的需要已使许多人转向更激进的政策立场。 如 抗议活动在世界范围内扩展，绿色新政显然具有吸引力。  

对结构变革的要求也以 黑色物质生活。 “拒绝警察”的重点不仅在于淘汰一些种族主义警察，而且还要求建立新的体制以结束系统性种族主义。 “取消租金”演变为一种要求，将住房视为一项社会权利，而不仅仅是一种商品。 The response to the crisis is intersectional, with support for Black Lives Matter from any disparate groups and with protests including large numbers of white people.应对危机的方式是相互交叉的，任何不同群体对“黑色生活问题”的支持，以及包括大量白人在内的抗议活动。 But is the racial justice movement likely to form part of a larger movement for a just transition?但是种族正义运动是否有可能成为正义运动中更大运动的一部分？ The的 种族主义的系统根源包括市场力量在种族分割和隔离中所扮演的角色，表明利益的融合。 马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King）在1960年代后期解释了黑人叛乱的含义时就对此观点表示信任。 at that time: The rebellion, he said, is 'much more than a struggle for the rights of Negroes….当时：他说，叛乱不只是为争取黑人权利而奋斗……。 It is exposing evils that are rooted deeply in the whole structure of our society.它暴露出深深植根于我们社会整体结构的邪恶。 It reveals systemic rather than superficial flaws and suggests that radical reconstruction of society itself is the real issue to be faced.它揭示了系统性的缺陷，而不是表面的缺陷，并且表明社会本身的彻底重建是要面对的真正问题。 It is … forcing America to face all its interrelated flaws – racism, poverty, militarism, and materialism'.它正在……迫使美国面对所有相互关联的缺陷-种族主义，贫困，军国主义和唯物主义。 Intersectional alliances build solidarity on this insight for potential systemic change.部门联盟基于这种见识建立了团结，以进行潜在的系统性变革。

气候活动家和种族正义团体的目标与许多需求重叠 经济和社会正义运动。 GND与工人，土著人民和种族少数群体的需求和权利联系在一起。 Green jobs, job guarantees, housing as a public good, high-quality and universal health care are just some of the non-reformist reforms that have emerged.绿色工作，工作保障，作为公共物品的住房，高质量和全民医疗保健只是刚刚出现的一些非改革性改革。 As a recent article in the作为最近的文章 “纽约时报” 指出，在基层的左派正在重塑全世界的政治。

 和平运动 构成潜在的基层联盟的另一个组成部分。 2019年，意外或蓄意进行核交换的风险攀升至1962年以来的最高点。 原子科学家通讯 moved its famous Doomsday Clock forward to 100 seconds before midnight, citing nuclear proliferation and the retreat from arms control as accentuating the danger of nuclear war.将其著名的世界末日时钟向前移动至午夜前XNUMX秒，理由是核扩散和军备控制撤退加剧了核战争的危险。 Arms-control and disarmament treaties, negotiated painstakingly in past decades, are falling apart, owing largely to US intransigence.在过去几十年中艰苦谈判的军备控制和裁军条约正在瓦解，主要是由于美国的顽固态度。 All the major nuclear powers – United States, Russia and China – are modernizing their nuclear arsenals.所有主要的核大国-美国，俄罗斯和中国-都在实现其核武库的现代化。 In this atmosphere, the US under Trump is seeking to spur allies into joining it in a new Cold War aimed at China.在这种气氛下，特朗普领导下的美国正在寻求促使盟国加入针对中国的新冷战。 Threatening actions and rhetoric aimed at Venezuela, Iran and Cuba and the widespread recourse to cyber-warfare compound international tensions and have galvanized peace organizations widely.针对委内瑞拉，伊朗和古巴的威胁性行动和言论，以及对网络战的广泛利用，加剧了国际紧张局势，使和平组织广泛受到鼓舞。

和平运动的目标及其在北美联盟主持下作为北美运动的融合 World Beyond War，使它更接近新兴联盟的其他三个方面。 Its goal of cutting defense budgets, canceling new arms procurements, and channeling released funds to human security reflects a concern for social rights and decommodification.其削减国防预算，取消新武器采购以及将释放的资金用于人的安全的目标反映了对社会权利和非商品化的关注。 Human security is defined as the expansion of social and ecological rights.人的安全被定义为社会和生态权利的扩大。 Hence the connection with economic and social justice initiatives.因此与经济和社会正义倡议的联系。 In addition, links between climate change and security concerns have brought the climate and peace movements into dialogue.此外，气候变化与安全关切之间的联系使气候与和平运动进入了对话。 Even a small nuclear exchange would initiate a nuclear winter, with untold consequences for drought, starvation and generalized misery.即使是很小的核交换也将启动核冬天，对干旱，饥饿和普遍的苦难产生不可估量的后果。 Conversely, climate change, by destroying livelihoods and rendering tropical regions uninhabitable, undermines fragile states and exacerbate existing ethnic and other conflicts.相反，气候变化通过破坏生计和使热带地区无法居住而破坏了脆弱的国家，加剧了现有的种族冲突和其他冲突。 和平，正义与可持续性越来越被视为密不可分的联系。 这是联盟结盟和每个运动的抗议活动相互支持的基础。

让不可能成为可能

We live in the decisive decade, facing serious challenges that endanger the future of all species.我们生活在决定性的十年中，面临着危及所有物种未来的严峻挑战。 Politics as usual in liberal democracies seem incapable of grasping the enormity of the challenges or acting decisively to manage them.自由民主制国家的政治通常无法抓住挑战的巨大力量或采取果断行动来应对这些挑战。 The rising chorus of authoritarian populist-nationalists, with their racially tinged conspiracy theories, erect a major obstacle to rational and equitable solutions to the multi-dimensional crisis.威权主义的民粹主义民族主义者不断上升的合唱，以及带有种族色彩的阴谋论，为合理，公正地解决多维危机提供了主要障碍。 In this context, progressive movements of civil society are playing an increasingly central role in pushing for the needed systemic changes.在这种情况下，民间社会的进步运动在推动必要的系统性变革中发挥着越来越重要的作用。 The question is: can unity of single-issue movements be built around a common program that avoids both Utopianism and mere reformism?问题是：能否围绕避免乌托邦主义和单纯的改良主义的共同纲领建立统一的单一运动？ Also, will the movement of movements muster enough discipline to remain non-violent, oriented steadfastly to civil disobedience?而且，运动是否会集结足够的纪律以保持非暴力，坚定地面向公民抗命？ The answers to both questions must be yes – if we are to make the impossible, possible.这两个问题的答案都必须是–如果我们要使不可能变为可能。

Richard Sandbrook是多伦多大学政治学名誉教授。 Recent books include Reinventing the Left in the Global South: The Politics of the Possible (2014), a revised and expanded edition of Civilizing Globalization: A Survival Guide (co-editor and co-author, 2014), and Social Democracy in the Global Periphery: Origins, Challenges, Prospects (co-author, 2007).最近的著作包括《重塑全球南方的左翼：可能的政治》（XNUMX年），《文明的全球化：生存指南》的修订和扩展版（共同编辑和合著者，XNUMX年）以及《全球社会民主》。外围：起源，挑战，前景（合著者，XNUMX年）。