Wolemba Chas Freeman Jr., UnHerd, January 4, 2024
Momwe atolankhani aku America adachitira ndi Nkhondo ya ku Ukraine ikutikumbutsa mawu omwe adanenedwa kwa Mark Twain: "Kafukufuku wa othirira ndemanga ambiri adayika kale mdima wambiri pankhaniyi, ndipo mwina, ngati apitiliza, tidzadziwa posachedwa. palibe konse za izo.”
Ndi mawu omveka bwino a mawu odziwika bwino akuti: pankhondo, chowonadi ndicho imfa yoyamba. Nthawi zambiri amatsagana ndi chifunga chabodza. Ndipo palibe chifunga choterechi chomwe chidakhalapo ngati pankhondo ya ku Ukraine. Ngakhale kuti anthu masauzande ambiri amenya nkhondo ndi kufa ku Ukraine, makina ofalitsa nkhani ku Brussels, Kyiv, London, Moscow ndi Washington agwira ntchito mowonjezereka kuti atsimikizire kuti titenga mbali zokhutiritsa, kukhulupirira zomwe tikufuna kukhulupirira, ndikudzudzula aliyense amene amafunsa mafunso. nkhani yomwe takambirana. Zotsatira zake kwa onse zakhala zowopsa. Kwa Ukraine, zakhala zoopsa. Pamene tikulowa m'chaka chatsopano, kuganiziranso mozama za ndondomeko ndi onse okhudzidwa ndi nthawi yayitali.
Izi ndi zotsatira zakuti nkhondoyo idabadwiramo ndipo yapitilizidwa chifukwa cha zolakwika mbali zonse. United States idawerengera kuti ziwopsezo zaku Russia zopita kunkhondo chifukwa cha kusalowerera ndale ku Ukraine zinali zolakwika zomwe zingalepheretse kufotokoza ndi kunyoza mapulani aku Russia. Russia idaganiza kuti United States ingakonde zokambirana pankhondo ndipo ikufuna kupewa kugawanikanso kwa Europe kukhala ma blocs odana. Anthu aku Ukraine adawerengera Kumadzulo kuteteza dziko lawo. Pamene machitidwe a Russia m'miyezi yoyamba ya nkhondoyo adawonetsa kuti alibe mphamvu, akumadzulo adatsimikiza kuti Ukraine ikhoza kuigonjetsa. Palibe kuwerengera kumeneku komwe kwatsimikizira.
Komabe, zofalitsa zaboma, zokulitsidwa ndi anthu odziwika bwino komanso ochezera a pa Intaneti, zatsimikizira ambiri akumadzulo kuti kukana mgwirizano wamtendere usanachitike komanso kulimbikitsa Ukraine kuti imenyane ndi Russia mwanjira ina ndi "pro-Ukraine". Chisoni cha nkhondo ya ku Ukraine ndizomveka, koma, monga momwe nkhondo ya Vietnam iyenera kutiphunzitsira, ma demokarasi amataya pamene cheerleading imalowa m'malo mwachidziwitso popereka lipoti ndipo maboma amakonda mabodza awo kuchowonadi cha zomwe zikuchitika pabwalo lankhondo. Ndiye chikuchitika ndi chiyani pabwalo lankhondo? Nanga otenga nawo mbali pankhondo ya ku Ukraine akuyenda bwanji kuti akwaniritse zolinga zawo?
Tiyeni tiyambe ndi Ukraine. Kuyambira 2014 mpaka 2022, nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Donbas anapha anthu pafupifupi 15,000. Ndi angati omwe aphedwa akuchitapo kanthu kuyambira pomwe nkhondo yaku US / NATO-Russia idayamba mu February 2022 sizikudziwika, koma zili bwino. mazana angapo a zikwi. Ziwerengero za anthu ovulala zabisika chifukwa cha nkhondo zamphamvu zomwe sizinachitikepo m'mbuyomu. Zomwe Kumadzulo za Kumadzulo za akufa ndi ovulala zakhala zabodza zochokera ku Kyiv zonena kuti anthu ambiri aku Russia amwalira pomwe akuwulula zochepa za ovulala aku Ukraine. Komabe ngakhale pofika chilimwe chathachi, zinali kudziwika kuti 10% ya anthu aku Ukraine adakhudzidwa ndi asilikali, pamene 78% anali ndi achibale kapena abwenzi amene anaphedwa kapena kuvulazidwa. Akuti pakati 20,000 ndi 50,000 aku Ukraine tsopano ndi odulidwa ziwalo. (Kwa nkhani, Anthu 41,000 aku Britain adadulidwa ziwalo m’Nkhondo Yadziko Lonse Yoyamba, pamene kachitidwe kaŵirikaŵiri kanali kokha kamene kalipo kutetezera imfa. Asitikali ochepera 2,000 aku US omwe adawukira ku Afghanistan ndi Iraq adadulidwa ziwalo.)
Pamene nkhondo inayamba, Ukraine inali ndi anthu pafupifupi 31 miliyoni. Dzikoli lataya ndithu gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a anthu ake. Oposa 6 miliyoni athaŵira Kumadzulo. Miliyoni iwiri inanso anapita ku Russia. Wina Anthu mamiliyoni asanu ndi atatu aku Ukraine athamangitsidwa achoke m’nyumba zawo koma akhale m’dziko. Zomangamanga za ku Ukraine, mafakitale, ndi mizinda zawonongeka ndipo chuma chake chawonongeka. Monga momwe zimakhalira pankhondo, ziphuphu - zomwe zadziwika kwa nthawi yayitali mu ndale za ku Ukraine - zafala. Demokalase yatsopano ya Ukraine kulibenso, ndi zipani zotsutsa, osalamulirika malo ogulitsira, ndipo kusagwirizana kuletsedwa. Kumbali ina, ziwawa za ku Russia zagwirizanitsa anthu a ku Ukraine, kuphatikizapo ambiri olankhula Chirasha, kumlingo umene sunawonepo n’kale lonse. Mosazindikira, Moscow yalimbitsa chizindikiritso cha Chiyukireniya chomwe nthano zaku Russia komanso Purezidenti Putin adafuna kukana. Zomwe Ukraine idataya m'gawo lomwe idapeza mu mgwirizano wokonda dziko lawo kutengera kutsutsa kwakukulu kwa Moscow.
Chochititsa chidwi cha izi ndikuti odzipatula ku Ukraine olankhula Chirasha nawonso adalimbikitsidwanso kuti ndi ndani. Tsopano palibe kuthekera kwenikweni kwa olankhula Chirasha kuvomera udindo mu Ukraine wogwirizana, monga momwe zikanakhalira pansi pa Minsk Accords. Ndipo, ndi kulephera kwa "kutsutsa" kwa Ukraine, ndizokayikitsa kuti Donbas kapena Crimea adzabwereranso ku ulamuliro wa Ukraine. Pamene nkhondo ikupitirira, dziko la Ukraine likhoza kutaya gawo linanso, kuphatikizapo mwayi wopita ku Black Sea. Zomwe zatayika pabwalo lankhondo komanso m'mitima ya anthu sizingabwezedwenso pagome lokambirana. Ukraine idzatuluka m'nkhondoyi yolumala, yopunduka, komanso yochepetsedwa kwambiri m'madera onse ndi chiwerengero cha anthu.
Komanso, palibe chiyembekezo chenicheni cha umembala waku Ukraine wa Nato. Monga Mlangizi wa NSC Jake Sullivan wanena, aliyense "akuyenera kuyang'ana zenizeni zenizeni” zomwe zimalola Ukraine kulowa nawo ku Nato panthawiyi “zikutanthauza nkhondo ndi Russia”. Kumbali yake, mlembi wamkulu wa Nato Jens Stoltenberg wanena kuti chofunikira kuti munthu wa ku Ukraine akhale membala wa Nato ndi mgwirizano wamtendere pakati pa Russia ndi Russia. Koma palibe pangano loterolo limene likuoneka. Popitiliza kunena kuti Ukraine idzakhala membala wa Nato nkhondo ikadzatha, azungu alimbikitsa Russia kuti asavomereze kuthetsa nkhondoyo. Pamapeto pake, Ukraine iyenera kupanga mtendere ndi Russia, makamaka makamaka pa mawu achi Russia.
Chilichonse chomwe nkhondo ingakhale ikukwaniritsa, ndiye kuti sizinali zabwino ku Ukraine. Malo ake a bargaining kuyang'ana Russia yafooka kwambiri. Koma ndiye, tsogolo la Kyiv nthawi zonse lakhala likuganiziridwa m'malamulo aku US. Washington yayesetsa kugwiritsa ntchito kulimba mtima kwa Chiyukireniya kuti igonjetse Russia, kulimbikitsanso Nato, ndikulimbitsa ukulu wa US ku Europe. Ndipo silinatenge nthawi konse kuganizira za momwe angabwezeretse mtendere ku Ulaya.
Komabe, ngakhale dziko la Russia, malinga ndi zolinga zake zankhondo, silinachite bwino kuchotsa chikoka cha America ku Ukraine, kukakamiza Kyiv kulengeza kuti salowerera ndale, kapena kubwezeretsanso ufulu wa olankhula Chirasha ku Ukraine. Zowonadi, mosasamala kanthu za chotulukapo cha nkhondoyo, kudana kwa onse kwachotsa nthanthi ya Chirasha ya ubale wa Chirasha ndi Chiyukireniya wozikidwa pa chiyambi chimodzi ku Kyivan Rus. Russia idasiya kuyesayesa kwazaka mazana atatu kuti igwirizane ndi Europe ndikupita ku China, India, dziko lachi Islam ndi Africa. Kuyanjanitsa ndi European Union yotalikirana kwambiri sikungabwere mosavuta, ngati kuli kotheka. Russia mwina sinataye pabwalo lankhondo kapena kufooketsedwa kapena kudzipatula mwanzeru, koma idawononga mwayi waukulu.
Koma ngakhale nkhondoyo itasokoneza Russia, sizikuwonekeratu kuti yapindulitsa United States. Mu 2022 yokha, US adavomereza $ 113 biliyoni zothandizira ku Ukraine. Bajeti yachitetezo yaku Russia pamenepo inali pafupi theka la izo, ndipo kuyambira pamenepo chawonjezeka pafupifupi kawiri. Mafakitale achitetezo aku Russia adatsitsimutsidwa, kuthandiza dzikolo posachedwapa kupita ku Germany kukhala chuma chachisanu padziko lonse lapansi komanso chachikulu kwambiri ku Europe ponena za kugula mphamvu parity. Ngakhale kuti mayiko akumadzulo amanena mobwerezabwereza kuti dziko la Russia likutha zipolopolo komanso kutaya nkhondo ku Ukraine, sizinatero. Pakadali pano, kuwopseza kwa Russia ku West, komwe kunali mkangano wamphamvu wa mgwirizano wa Nato, wataya chikhulupiriro. Asitikali ankhondo aku Russia atsimikizira kuti sangathe kugonjetsa Ukraine, kucheperanso ku Europe konse.
Nkhondoyi yawonetsanso mikangano pakati pa mamembala a Nato. Monga momwe msonkhano wachigawo wa chaka chatha ku Vilnius unasonyezera, maiko omwe ali mamembala amasiyana pakufuna kuvomereza Ukraine. Mgwirizano womwe ukusokonekerawu ukuwoneka kuti sungathe kupitilira nkhondo. Zowona izi zimathandizanso kufotokozera chifukwa chake ambiri a ku America a ku Ulaya akufuna kuthetsa nkhondo mwamsanga. Nkhondo ya ku Ukraine yapereka malipiro ku nthawi ya pambuyo pa Soviet ku Ulaya, koma sikunapangitse kuti Ulaya akhale otetezeka kwambiri. Sizinakweze mbiri yaku America padziko lonse lapansi kapena kuphatikiza ukulu wa US. Nkhondoyo m'malo mwake yafulumizitsa kutuluka kwa dongosolo la dziko la post-American multipolar. Chimodzi mwa izi ndi mgwirizano wotsutsana ndi America pakati pa Russia ndi China.
Pofuna kufooketsa Russia, United States yakhala ikuletsa malonda pakati pa mayiko omwe alibe chochita ndi Ukraine kapena nkhondo kumeneko chifukwa sangalumphire ku US bandwagon. Kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa ndale ndi zachuma kukakamiza mayiko ena kuti agwirizane ndi ndondomeko zake zotsutsana ndi Russia ndi China zabwereranso kumbuyo. Yalimbikitsa ngakhale mayiko omwe kale anali makasitomala aku US kuti afufuze njira zopewera mikangano yamtsogolo yaku America ndi nkhondo zomwe sagwirizana nazo, monga ku Ukraine. M'malo molekanitsa Russia kapena China, kukambirana mokakamiza kwa America kwathandiza Moscow ndi Beijing kupititsa patsogolo ubale ku Africa, Asia, ndi Latin America zomwe zimachepetsa chikoka cha US m'malo awo.
Mwachidule, ndondomeko ya US yadzetsa kuvutika kwakukulu ku Ukraine ndi kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama zotetezera kuno ndi ku Ulaya, koma zalephera kufooketsa kapena kudzipatula Russia. Zinanso zomwezo sizingakwaniritse chimodzi mwazolinga zaku America zomwe zimanenedwa nthawi zambiri. Russia, pakadali pano, yaphunzitsidwa momwe angathanirane ndi zida zankhondo zaku America ndipo yapanga zowerengera zogwira mtima kwa iwo. Yalimbikitsidwa pankhondo, osati kufooketsedwa.
Ngati cholinga cha nkhondo ndicho kukhazikitsa mtendere wabwinoko, nkhondo imeneyi sikuchita zimenezo. Ukraine ikuthamangitsidwa paguwa la Russophobia. Panthawiyi, palibe amene anganene molimba mtima kuchuluka kwa dziko la Ukraine kapena kuti ndi anthu angati a ku Ukraine amene adzatsale pamene kumenyanako kudzatha kapena kuti ndi liti komanso momwe angayimitsire. Kyiv akulimbana kale kukwaniritsa zolinga zake zolembera anthu ntchito. Kulimbana ndi Russia mpaka ku Ukraine yomaliza inali njira yonyansa nthawi zonse. Koma pamene Nato yatsala pang'ono kutha kwa anthu aku Ukraine, sikuti amangonyoza chabe; sikulinso njira yotheka.
Chaka chino, ndi nthawi yoti tiike patsogolo kupulumutsa momwe tingathere ku Ukraine, omwe nkhondoyi yakhalapo. Ukraine ikufunika thandizo laukazembe kuti ipange mtendere ndi Russia ngati kudzipereka kwake kwankhondo sikunakhale kopanda phindu. Ikuwonongedwa. Iyenera kumangidwanso. Chinsinsi choteteza zomwe zatsala ndikupatsa mphamvu ndi kubwezeretsa Kyiv kuti athetse nkhondoyo motsatira njira zabwino zomwe angapeze, kuthandizira kubwerera kwa othawa kwawo, komanso kugwiritsa ntchito njira yolowa m'malo mwa EU kupititsa patsogolo kusintha kwaufulu ndikukhazikitsa boma loyera mosalowerera ndale. Ukraine.
Tsoka ilo, momwe zinthu zikuyimilira, onse a Moscow ndi Washington akuwoneka kuti atsimikiza mtima kulimbikira kuwononga kosalekeza kwa Ukraine. Koma mosasamala kanthu za zotsatira za nkhondoyo, Kyiv ndi Moscow potsirizira pake adzafunikira kupeza maziko okhalira limodzi. Washington ikuyenera kuthandizira Kyiv potsutsa Russia kuti izindikire nzeru komanso kufunikira kolemekeza kusalowerera ndale ku Ukraine komanso kukhulupirika kwawo.
Pomaliza, nkhondoyi iyenera kudzutsa kuganiza mozama ku Washington ndi Moscow za zotsatira za mfundo zakunja zopanda zokambirana, zankhondo. Dziko la United States likadavomera kukambirana ndi Moscow, ngakhale likadapitiriza kukana zambiri zomwe Moscow inkafuna, dziko la Russia silikanalanda dziko la Ukraine monga linachitira. Ngati mayiko a Kumadzulo sanalowererepo kuti aletse Ukraine kuti ivomereze mgwirizano womwe ena adathandizira kuti agwirizane ndi Russia kumayambiriro kwa nkhondo, Ukraine ikanakhala yokhazikika komanso yamtendere. Nkhondo imeneyi sinafunikire kuchitika. Ndipo gulu lililonse lomwe likuchita nawo lidataya zambiri kuposa lomwe lapeza.
Ichi ndi cholembedwa chosinthidwa cha zomwe Chas Freeman adapereka kwa East Bay Citizens for Peace.
