By URamesh Thakur
'UNkulunkulu wadala impi ukuze abantu baseMelika bakwazi ukufunda i-geography' (1)
Ngo-3 ngo-Okthoba, ethatha elinye igxathu endleleni eya empini entsha ebandayo, iRussia yamisa isivumelwano seminyaka emibili se-16 seminyaka ephakathi nendawo ne-US. Ngabe la mazwe womabili alala ezimpini ezingawela umkhawulo wenyukliya - ukhumbula ukuthi labo abahamba ngezinyawo abalazi ngaleso sikhathi?
Enye indlela engenzeka yokuya shayela impi kuzoba ukuzilandela izingoma ezikhulayo zezingcingo ku-Washingtonway ongashayi indiza phezu kweSyria. Ebhokisini elenziwa kaningi kuMark Twain okulungile ukuthi kufanele kube yiqiniso, kuthiwa uNkulunkulu udale impi ukuze abantu baseMelika bakwazi ukufunda ubuzwe. Izwe laseRussia ne-US libuye likhuphuke futhi lingabhoka uma uHillary Clinton eba ngumongameli, okubonakala sengathi nakanjani.
Usongo lwempi lufika lincane kusukela ekuvuseleleni kwaseRussia noma ezifisweni zombuso kanye nokuningi okuvela ekugcizeleleni kwe-US ukuthi awekho amanye amandla okumelana namandla ezomnotho namandla ezempi okumelana nentando yaseWashington, noma kuphi. Umiswe ekunqobeni kokuphakama kwe-US esikhathini se-Cold War unipolar mzuzu, lokhu kungagcineki futhi kuyingozi enkulu njengoba amandla e-US efuna ukubambana namandla okuqinisa ezomnotho, ezempi kanye nezomthetho owenziwe yiChina neRussia kabusha. Ukuphikiswa okunamandla kwaseMelika kohlu olungenakuqhathaniswa lomlando nakho kubeka izingozi e-Australia.
Umlando wokusetshenziswa kwamandla e-US nokwanda kwezisekelo zamasosha
I-US isiphenduke izwe elithanda ukulwa nezimpi. Ngokusho a Umbiko Wensizakalo Yocwaningo Nge-DRM ye-7 Okthoba, i-US isebenzise amandla phesheya kwezikhathi i-215 isuka ku-1798 iye kwi-1989, noma izikhathi ze-1.1 ngonyaka ngokwesilinganiso. Ukusuka ku-1991 kuya ku-2015 - isikhathi esisekupheleni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi - kuthumele amandla phesheya ngezikhathi ze-160, ngokwesilinganiso se-6.4 sonyaka. Lokhu kungachaza ukuthi kungani i-2013 I-WIN / iGallup ngemibono emazweni we-65 athola usongo olukhulu emhlabeni lokuthula komhlaba bekukholelwa ukuthi yi-US (24%), kulandele iPakistan, China, North Korea, Israel ne-Iran (phakathi kwe5-8% lilinye).
Kuyafaneleka ukubheka imephu yomhlaba futhi ucabange ngenani lezisekelo zamasosha ase-US nobukhona bamasosha aphesheya ezindaweni ezikude kakhulu nezwe, kuqhathaniswa nokuthunyelwa kwamasosha angaphandle kwaseRussia naseChina (ngaphandle kwemisebenzi yokugcina ukuthula ye-UN). Umkhosi wamasosha wase-US ugxile kakhulu esiqhingini somhlaba wonke sezisekelo eziningi ezisatshalaliswa cishe emazweni angamashumi amane. Inani eliqondile akulula ukuthola. Ku-2010 i Kubikwa uMnyango Wezokuvikela ingqikithi yezisekelo zamasosha e-662 zase-US emazweni we-38. Ngokuvumelana ne Intatheli ephenyayo uNick Turse, inombolo iyahlukahluka kusuka ku-460 kuya kwe-1,000.
Ukraine
I-A ne-B ecaleni elimelene neRussia kungukulwa kwayo e-Ukraine namabhomu eSyria. Ngokwesimo sokuhlasela kwe-1982 i-Argentina e-Falkland Islands, owayenguNobhala Wezwe wase-US uHenry Kissinger waxwayiswa ukuthi awekho amandla amakhulu ahlehlela ingunaphakade. Inqubomgomo enobudlova yase-US ebheke eRussia kusukela ngeminyaka yama-1990 ayiyinakanga le canon ebalulekile yobudlelwano bamandla amakhulu.
Ingxoxo yalokho uGraham Alison akubiza ngokuthi Isicupho seThucydides usephenduke imfashini kwimibuthano yenqubomgomo yezangaphandle. Lesi yisikhumbuzo esishubile sokuthi ngamacala alishumi nesithupha wokushintshwa kwamandla eminyakeni eyi-500 edlule, eyishumi nambili kwaholela empini. Le ngxoxo igxile kakhulu eChina.
Abahlaziyi abaningi bakhohliwe ukuthi i-Cold War yaphela kanjani e-1989-90. ISoviet Union, ebisayigcina imikhosi yokuvimbela amandla enuzi kodwa izovuma ukuba khona ngoDisemba 1991, ayikaze ivume ukuthi yahlulwa, futhi uMongameli uGeorge HW Bush wayeqikelela ukuthi akayinqobanga ukunqoba. Abanye bebenganqandwa kangako.
Njengombuso olandelanayo, iRussia yavuma ngokwemigomo yokuhleleka komhlaba omusha futhi yavuma ukusebenzisana neNtshonalanga ukusiza ekuqiniseni iMpi Yasemuva Yomhlaba ese-Cold. Kusukela lapho iWest iphathe iRussia ngokwedelela okuzalwa ukuzikhukhumeza. Ukwanda okungapheli ngasempumalanga kwe-NATO ezingxenyeni zombuso waseSoviet wangaphambili wephule izithembiso zase-US esenziwe eMalta ngesisekelo lapho iMoscow yayikhiphe ngokuthula amabutho eSoviet e-Eastern Europe, yavumela ukuhlangana kweJalimane futhi yamukela iJalimane ebumbene njengelungu le-NATO - izibazi ezijulile zomlando wokuhlasela kweFrance neJalimane ngaphandle kwalokho.
INtshonalanga igcobhoze ikhala laseRussia kaninginingi ekungcoleni kokunqotshwa kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, idelela izintshisekelo zayo nezikhalazo zayo. I-Russia yaphucwa ama-oligarchs athunjwa ngabongxowankulu base-US, izigidi zamaRussia ezezizwe zashiywa futhi zabuyiselwa esimweni sesigaba sesibili kulawo ayengabadalali baseSoviet, kanye nezwi laseRussia, amavoti kanye nezintshisekelo zaphindaphindeka zaphindaphindeka.
E-Ukraine e-2014 iNtshonalanga yeseka izixuku zemigwaqo ezixosha umongameli we-pro-Russian okhethiwe futhi yafaka uhulumeni wase-Western. Kepha amaNtshonalanga abukeka emangele ukuthi iRussia enolaka ithwele isikhalazo futhi yaphenduka amandla amakhulu lapho i-coupling isungulwa engadini yayo engaphambili. Bekuyi ukukhokha isikhathi. Ngenkathi uMoscow ephendula ngemigqa ebikezelwayo enikezwe umlando kanye ne-geopolitics yesifunda futhi yathatha kabusha iCrimea, iNtshonalanga, ngemuva kokudlala i-hardball futhi yalahleka, yajikijela phezulu.
Bobabili uMongameli UVladimir Putin kanye noNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle USergei Lavrov basheshe bakhumbula ngezenzo ze-NATO ekusizeni ukukhipha uKosovo waseSerbia e1999. Akunzima konke ukucabanga ukusabela okuqinile kwe-US ekulinganeni okukhona okulingana neChina- noma neRussia, kulandele ukufakwa kombuso olwa namaMelika, eCanada naseMexico. Onke amandla amakhulu, i-US ifakiwe, anezinhloso zamasu futhi aphishekela izinqubomgomo zamazwe zangaphandle ezingekho emthethweni.
Syria
Amabutho aseNtshonalanga angenelele engxabanweni yaseSyria, ngaphandle kwemvume kahulumeni wawo wezomthetho, izingalo zabavukeli bakahulumeni ezilwa neziteleka zomoya ngokumelene nemigomo ye-Islamic State (IS) ngaphakathi kweSyria. Ama-imeyili avuthiwe kaClinton aqinisekisa lokho Izimbangi zaseMelika iSaudi Arabia neTurkey zixhasile i-IS futhi abaphathi baka-Obama bakwazile lokhu. Ukungenelela komoya eRussia eSyria okucelwe futhi kusekelwa umbuso we-Assad - ukungenelela kwakhe kokuqala kwamasosha kusukela i-1989 ngaphandle kwemingcele yezwe elaliyiSoviet Union - kwaphawula ukuqhekeka kweMoscow kusuka kumyalo wamazwe omhlaba owakhiwa yi-West owabekwa eNtshonalanga. IRussia. IMoscow yayingasalungiswa, kuphetha uDmitri Trenin, 'ukuthobela imikhuba nemikhuba ebekwe phansi, yamaphoyisa, futhi yaxazululwa yiNtshonalanga'. Inxusa laseRussia lase-UK liphendule ekugxekweni kwaseNtshonalanga ngokuthi ukungenelela kweMoscow kwakune 'wasindisa iSyria ekuthatheni kwamaphekula'ngenkathi uWashington ehlulekile ukuhlukanisa amavukelambuso alwa nama-Assad kuma-jihadists aqinile.
'UNkulunkulu wadala impi ukuze abantu baseMelika bakwazi ukufunda i-geography' (2)
China
Ukuxoshwa okwenziwa yiRussia selokhu kwaphela iMpi Yomshoshaphansi eYurophu kwashiya i-US ingalungisiwe ukubhekana nokukhuphuka kweChina ePacific. Ngokomlando, iWashington ayikaze iphathe elinye izwe njengelingana noma ibhekane nombuso wezwe onobubanzi obuningi, obusezingeni eliphezulu futhi obugcwele njenge China. Njengoba iChina igcwalisa njengamandla amakhulu, ubungqabavu baseMelika abuvumelekile. I-China bekulamandla ezwekazi lonke kepha manje izintshisakalo zalo zasolwandle nemisebenzi iyakhula. Ukwanda kwaso ngokuganga kobude obude kanye namandla omkhumbi wamandla we-navas kungabeka engcupheni inkathi yokuqina kwesifunda okwabhalwa ngayo ngabokuqala base-US. Amakhumbi alo asemanzini akhulayo aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka nemicibisholo emide ebangeni elingabeka futhi i-Australia phakathi kwamasosha aseChina.
Emehlweni aseChina i-Australia ibonakala iphendule ngokuthi ijoyine i-US kuhlelo lokuthwala izinto, njengoba kuboniswa yizitatimende zomphakathi kuzo zombili izihloko, ipivot yase-US eya e-Asia, isinqumo sokumisa impikiswano yezempi yase-US eDarwin kanye nokwakha. kwezixhumanisi zamasosha. Lokho amaMelika akuvezayo njengokuthi 'ukuphindisela kabusha' kungaba (mis) kufundwa ngokuthi 'ukuphikisana' nabaseShayina abazophendula ngokufanele.
Ukuphathwa kukaClinton kanye nencwadi yokudlala yaseWashington
Ngokusho kwabagxeki, ngaphansi kwethonya lezakhiwo zamasosha nezimboni amasosha aseMelika asezindaweni eziningi kunokuba kufanele, izwe lenza izikhali eziningi kunalezo elizidingayo, futhi lithengisa izikhali eziningi kunaleyo enobuhlakani. Ibilwelwa empini ebonakala ingapheli kusukela ku-2001 kanye uqhubeka nokuqhumisa amazwe amaningi ngasikhathi sinye. Inxusa laseMelika elathatha umhlalaphansi lidonsa ukuxhumana phakathi kokudlanga kobudlova ekhaya kanye nezindlela ezivame ukusetshenziswa ekusetshenzisweni kwamabutho phesheya kwezilwandle: 'siyisizwe sokubulala, ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe'.
Ngenkathi abantu baseMelika bebona inqubomgomo yabo ivela emcabangweni wendawo yonke, abanye abaningi bayibheka njengento egxile ekuzikhukhumaleni okuyisisekelo. Njengokubhekwa kwezwe lonke kanye nomhlaba wonke, abantu baseMelika bawele ogibeni lokuphazamisa noma kuphi futhi yonke indawo hhayi ngoba ilungile emthethweni noma isebenza ngenhloso ehambisanayo, kepha ngoba bayakwazi, abanandaba futhi abanandaba nokuthi izenzo zabo zisongela noma zenze kabi kangakanani abanye .
Ngisho noMongameli Barack Obama ukhale ngokuthi ukusungulwa kwenqubomgomo okungaphandle kwe-Washingtonincwadi yokudlala'izimpendulo ngokwezifiso zezinkinga zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle. UClinton uyingxenye enkulu yokuvumelana kweqembu laseWashington elite. NjengoNobhala Wezwe, wayehlala enobuntu obukhulu kakhulu kuno-Obama ngakho-ke akumangazi ukuthi uhla olude lwabaphephabhuku abaphezulu bamthembise ukuthi bazomvotela yena kunoDonald Trump. Kuke kwaba nokukhathazeka ukucabangela ukuthi umuntu ozongenela uMeluleki Wezokuphepha Kazwelonke noma uNobhala Wezwe ekuphathweni kukaClinton uzoba uVictoria Nuland, umuntu ophethe inqubomgomo yase-Ukraine eMnyangweni Wezwe lase-US owasho ngokusobala kwinxusa laseMelika eKiev 'F..k i-EU'engxoxweni yocingo ngoFebhuwari 2014. Uke waba yiphini lomeluleki wezokuphepha kuzwelonke kwiPhini likaMongameli uDick Cheney kwezokuphatha iBush futhi ushade nomculi ophambili we-neoconservative Robert.
Kuyamangaza ukuthi uClinton uzitholele umkhankaso ngokufaka izinkathazo ngomunwe kaTrump obengekho emhlolweni nasenkingeni yezikhali zenuzi. Impendulo kaClinton kulesi sikhathi sokudonswa kwama-imeyili kwama-imeyli adalulwe yi-WikiLeaks ibilokhu iphazamisa ukunakwa kwakhe ezonweni zakhe nasezinsolweni ezingaphendulwanga zaseRussia zokuphazamisa okhethweni lwasekhaya e-US (okuyinto i-Washington eyayingasoze yalwenza noma kuphi) futhi ihlasele ubukhosi bukaTrump noPutin, ngaleyo ndlela kukhulisa u-US. -Russian tension namanje more. Umcabango onika ithemba wokuthi uma enikezwe inqubomgomo yakhe ngobuchule nolwazi olunzulu, uma uClinton esezuze isifiso sakhe sokuba ngumongameli uzophakama ngaphezu kokulinganiselwa kwakhe kwangaphambilini futhi akhombise ukumemezela ukuhlakanipha komhlaba jikelele.
Imiphumela ye-Australia
Ubumbano lwe-Australia ne-US luyaqhubeka nokubumba inqubomgomo yayo yaseChina kanye nomugqa wayo oshubile oshubile neRussia wenziwe inhlekelele yendiza. Indiza yaseMalawi Airlines indiza iMH17 yadutshulwa yabulawa ngo-17 ngoJulayi 2014 eduzane naseDonetsk, e-Ukraine, yabulala bonke abagibeli beqembu le-298, kubandakanya nabase-Australia abaningana. Inkulumo kahulumeni eqine ngokumelene neMoscow ngalesi senzo sobulelesi esidalwe kahle yadlala kahle kwezepolitiki yasekhaya yase-Australia. Kepha ukulahleka kwe-MH17 bekungeyona okokuqala icala lokudubula kwezindiza umphakathi. Usizi olungaqhathaniswa nolwaziwa kakhulu lapho amabutho ase-US ayenzakaliswa ngokuqondile (ngokungafani neMH17, lapho amasosha aseRussia kusolwa ukuthi angahambisana ngokuqondile nokunikeza izihlubuki ezenze ukudubula ngezingalo ezibulalayo) ukudubula okwenziwa yi-USS I-Vincennes ye-Iran Air indiza i-655 kwi-3 Julayi 1988 njengoba indiza nendlela ehleliwe yansuku zonke ukusuka eTehran iya eDubai. Umphathi womkhumbi kwakungu kabakhuzwa noma bajeziswe kodwa uthole indondo.
I-amnesia yomlando ingahle ichaze iphazili yenqubomgomo yase-US elibhekise eRussia. I-America ihlinzeke ngobukhazikhazi ubuholi bomhlaba wonke amashumishumi eminyaka emva kweMpi Yezwe Yesibili futhi yakha ukuhleleka okuhlelwa komhlaba wonke esiphila kukho namuhla. Umhlaba ungcono ngendlela iMpi Yomshoshaphansi eyalwelwa ngayo nokuthi yiluphi uhlangothi olwaphumelela; izwe lanamuhla bekungaba ihlathi elinzima kakhulu kuwo wonke amazwe ngenye indlela. Lokho kusho ukuthi, ukunqoba kukhiqize ukunqoba kanye nenkolelo yokuhlukile kweMelika lapho umthetho wamazwe omhlaba kanye nezinkambiso zomhlaba wonke kusebenza kuphela kwabanye. I-US izindinganiso eziphindwe kabili zanda ngaphesheya kobubanzi obubanzi ezindabeni zomhlaba.
Ngokuphikisana nalokhu kwengemuva okukhulu kwezwe, isizukulwane sonke sezepolitiki saseMelika nezikhulu sezikhulile ziphatha iRussia njengonqobayo, obekungulowo amandla izinhloso zakhe ezingabekelwa eceleni. Baningi abaphethwe ngamakhanda abanesipiliyoni futhi abanolwazi kanye nokuthi ubudlelwano neMoscow baphathwa kanjani ngokuthula ngenxa yokuxineka kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi futhi izingxabano zizwakalise ukungakhululeki ngokulahleka kwenkumbulo yesikhungo kodwa kubukeka sengathi zingenalo ubumbano ngaphakathi kwabenzi bamigomo abakhona kunoma yiliphi iqembu elikhulu.
Beholwa yi-US, iWest yahlomela ilungelo lokuba ngumgcini wokuziphatha ovumelekile wedwa kanye nabanye. Njengombana umhlaba lo usungena ekushoneni kwelanga i-West ilahlekelwe ngabodwa ekubhaleni nasephoyiseni lemithetho yomhlaba, nokho iziphatha ngezikhathi ezithile kungathi kuyaphika ukulahleka kwamandla angenakulawuleka. Ingozi yempi engafuneki neyonakalisayo ilele kokubili kulokhu kugcizelela kokuqhubeka okuhlukile kwe-US nokukholelwa kumandla aseNtshonalanga, nasezenzweni zokulwa neRussia neChina.
Kuthuthukiso olufanayo, lapho umfelandawonye wase-Australia wakuqala uqinisekise ukuphepha kwethu, namuhla futhi kungandisa usongo ekuphepha kwethu. Lokhu akusho ukuthi i-Australia kufanele ichithe umfelandawonye wayo. Kusho ukuthi i-Australia kumele idlule emiqondweni yokuncika kwamakhasimende bese ithatha isinqumo ngezinkinga zempi nokuthula ezinkundleni zemidlalo ezahlukene ngokusebenzisa ukwahlulela okuzimele. Isibonelo seCanada vis-à-vis impi yase-Iraq sibonisa ukuthi noma isiphi isiphithiphithi esiphumela ebudlelwaneni neWashington sizoba sincane futhi sibe sesikhashana.
I-athikili itholakele ku: http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?p=8138
