Forever Partnership, Forever War

Isithombe: Amafu namabhomu nguJuan Hein

Ibhalwe ngu-Alison Broinowski Arena Ngekota No. 8, Disemba 2, 2021

I-AUKUS iqinisekise ukuthi ikusasa lase-Australia lizohambisana nokufudumala kwe-US

I-AUKUS inzima ukuyigwinya njengoba isifinyezo sayo esisabekayo kunzima ukusiphimisela. Kulula ngokufanayo ukuhlekisa. Kuphendula abangani bakudala babe izitha. Kwenze umbukwane omubi nge-Australia njengezwe elingathenjwa, elingavumelani, nelinobudlova. Nokho Ucwaningo Olubalulekile luthola ukuthi amaphesenti angama-81 abantu base-Australia bacabanga ukuthi kuhle ekuvikelekeni kwethu.¹  Ngokusobala, uScott Morrison akanandaba noma lesi sivumelwano sibeka engcupheni futhi sisiphuca futhi siholela empini eyingozi, inqobo nje uma uhulumeni wakhe eqokwa kabusha.

Ngokushesha nje lapho kumenyezelwe i-Anglo-autarky entsha maphakathi no-September kwaba nokukhala kwentukuthelo kwazwakala emhlabeni wonke. Hhayi nje eFrance, izwe elashaqeka kakhulu futhi elihlukunyezwe yilo, kodwa livela eJalimane, okwakuzohlinzeka ngezingxenye ngaphansi kwenkontileka yemikhumbi-ngwenya yaseFrance elahliwe. Ukuziphindiselela okuvela kwi-EU yonkana, enokuzuza okuningi ngokusebenzisana kwamazwe ngamazwe neChina, kulimaza izingxoxo zohwebo lwamahhala ne-Australia. UMongameli Macron unxusa i-EU ukuthi ithuthukise amandla ayo ezempi azimele.

I-Australia, ngokusho kweChina I-Global Times, 'isiphenduke isitha seShayina'. Umkhulumeli woMnyango Wezangaphandle waseBeijing uxwayisa ngemiphumela emithathu engaba khona evela ku-AUKUS: Impi Yomshoshaphansi entsha, umjaho wezikhali wesifunda kanye nokwanda kwezikhali zenuzi.² I-India, efuna eyayo imikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi, ithola ubandlululo lwama-Anglo amhlophe, njengoba ijoyina i-Quad; I-Japan ihlongoza ukuthola izinsiza zenuzi, yephule izimiso zayo zokulwa ne-nuclear; INingizimu Korea ikhathazekile; futhi iNew Zealand, njengenjwayelo, inezizathu ezinhle zokwahlulela.

I-Kiribati, eyayisetshenziselwa izivivinyo zenuzi zaseBrithani ngeminyaka yawo-1950 kanye nama-60s, nayo iyayinyanya i-AUKUS. Amazwe ase-ASEAN, ebumbene ekufuneni ukukhipha umbango wamandla amakhulu aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, awahlabeki umxhwele ngokubekwa kwe-AUKUS kuwo. Ngaphandle kwePhilippines, ungqongqoshe wayo wezangaphandle ufuna ukuphindiselwa emuva ngokumelene neChina. Akekho kubo othanda ukungaxoxisana nabo kusenesikhathi.

Kodwa yini eyayizokutshela? Izitatimende zabezindaba ezimbalwa zongqongqoshe zimemezele ubudlelwano obuthuthukisiwe bezokuphepha, isivumelwano phakathi kwamazwe 'ayizihlobo'.³ Umlayezo ohlanganyelwe ovela ezingxoxweni ze-AUSMIN wawumude kumanani okwabelwana ngawo, ukuhleleka okusekelwe emithethweni yamazwe ngamazwe.⁴ kanye 'nefa lokuthula nempumelelo ubudlelwano bethu obunikele khona' esifundeni, kodwa kafushane ngenjongo emaphakathi ye-AUKUS kanye ne-Quad: equkethe i-China.⁵

Ngokungasho lutho kwembulwa enkulumweni mayelana nokuthi iqembu ngalinye lizotholani ekuhlelweni, noma ukuthi yiliphi iqembu elizofaka isandla kulo. Kunalokho, bathembisa ngokungananazi 'ubambiswano lwaphakade', 'ukuqondanisa eduze kwezinqubomgomo nezenzo zesifunda' kanye 'nokuhlanganiswa okukhulu kwezimboni zezempi nezokuvikela'. Umkhandlu wendawo ungalindela ukukhuluma okuncane kokuphatha kanye nokucaciswa okwengeziwe esicelweni sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokudla kwezilwane ezifuywayo.

Njengoba ingcwatshwe ngemininingwane ehlukanisiwe, ukudeveli kuhlanganisa Isitatimende Senhloso Yokubambisana Kwamakhono Eqhinga Nokusetshenziswa. Lokho kuvumela ukubambisana 'okuthuthukisiwe' komoya nolwandle, isho ngehlazo 'ukuthunyelwa okujikelezayo kwezindiza zase-US yazo zonke izinhlobo e-Australia kanye nokuqeqeshwa okufanele nokuzivocavoca kwezindiza' [ukugcizelela kwami], kanye nokukhulisa 'impahla kanye namakhono okugcina emikhumbi yase-US nangaphansi komhlaba e-Australia'. Kuhunyushwe, lokhu kusho amabhomu enuzi ase-US, imicibisholo, imikhumbi yempi nemikhumbi-ngwenya esebenzisa amachweba ase-Australia nezisekelo zomhlaba ngokuthanda kwakhe. Abasebenzi abaningi base-US e-Darwin kusho ukuziphatha okungenasisekelo kwabantu bendawo e-Okinawa nase-Philippines amashumi eminyaka bakubekezelela. Uphethiloli weNuclear uzongeniswa usuka e-United States nase-United Kingdom, ngaphandle uma inhloso ethule kuwukucebisa i-uranium yase-Australia ibe sezingeni lezikhali futhi kusungulwe imboni yenuzi e-Australia, kokubili okungekho emthethweni okwamanje.

Emangaza abezindaba ngezithombe eziningi, uMorrison wenza ingxenye enkulu ye-Australia yathola imikhumbi-ngwenya yase-US enamandla enyukliya engu-100 esikhundleni sezingu-XNUMX ezivamile zesiFulentshi, nakuba inani eliqondile, intengo ephezulu kanye nosuku lokulethwa lwakamuva lwalungacacile. Isilinganiso singaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-XNUMX zamaRandi, eminyakeni engamashumi amathathu.⁶ Akukho okwashiwo mayelana nezigidi ezizobiza ukukhansela iphrojekthi yaseFrance. Futhi kube nesitatimende esihlanganyelwe esisabekayo esimayelana 'Nokubambisana Ekulwisaneni Nolwazi Lokuchithwa Kwezinto', okusho ukugadwa nokuhlolwa okwengeziwe kokuxhumana kwethu kunalokho okuvunyelwe yimithetho engamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye nanye ephasiswe ephalamende lase-Australia kusukela ngo-2001.

Njengenjwayelo, ezinye izikhali zabiwa kuzo zonke izinkonzo ezintathu zase-Australia, njengokungathi ngayinye ithumele uhlu lwezifiso zomjaho wezikhali okhuphukayo. Konke lokhu akuqinisekisiwe, akunasikhathi futhi akunamininingwane. Ngenkathi i-Australian Navy ilinde amashumi eminyaka imikhumbi-ngwenya engenamuntu, engakhiwanga, izokwamukela imicibisholo ye-Tomahawk cruise. I-Australian Air Force ithola imicibisholo ecitshwayo esuka emoyeni uye phezulu nebanga elide, kanye nemicibisholo ye-hypersonic yesikhathi esizayo. Okwamasosha kuzoba nemicibisholo eqondiswayo 'eqondile'. I-Adelaide izoba nezimboni eziningi zokukhiqiza izikhali ezixhaswe nguhulumeni, kanye nemikhumbi yenuzi ethekwini layo.

Kulezi zindlela ezintsha zokubulala omakhelwane bethu, umthengi yi-Australia, kanti abathengisi ababili yi-United States ne-United Kingdom. Akumangalisi ukuthi uMongameli uBiden kanye noNdunankulu uJohnson bathanda lolu hlelo. Izilinganiso ziyahlukahluka mayelana nenzuzo iBrithani engayilindela, kodwa manje sesiyaqonda ukuthi kungani uJohnson gate-ephule isikhathi sokuqokwa kukaMorrison no-Biden ngoJuni emhlanganweni we-Cornwall G7. I-Australia yakhokha iphathi yabo, futhi kumelwe ukuba bagoduke behleka, bedlula ebhange.

Uma ngabe abantu base-Australia kudlalwe ngabo amasuckers ngu-'USUKA', ngabe uhulumeni wethu udlalwe ngokumunca futhi? Noma ingabe lokhu kuyisisekelo se-arch i-Coalition osekuyiminyaka iyakha?

Okuholela phezulu

Ubufushane bemininingwane akusho ukuthi yayingekho, noma ukuthi i-AUKUS yahlanganiswa ngokushesha—okuphambene impela. Imfundiso yesu lase-US Pacific esanda kuchithwa ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngonyaka wezi-2018 umbono wamasu wase-United States bekuwukuhlela amandla ayo olwandle ngokumelene neChina emqhudelwaneni wokulawula amanzi aseShayina nezindawo zomnotho. Izingxoxo ne-Australia zaqala ngo-2019, lapho uBiden ecacisa ngokushintsha kwakhe ubutha kusuka eMiddle East kuya eChina. Isikhungo senqubomgomo yezokuphepha yase-Australia esixhaswe ngezimali yi-US cishe sasikhona ngesikhathi sokukhulelwa. Umvuzo wesikhungo uwukuthola indawo eWashington, efanele ihhovisi legatsha lase-United States.

Ngaphambi nje kwesimemezelo sikaSepthemba 2021 se-AUKUS, kwabekwa isisekelo. Ngo-2018, i-Australia yabophezela i-United States ngokuvuma ukuvala i-Huawei futhi yenqabe i-China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), kokubili okuyihlazo eWashington. Nokho bobabili banikeza amathuba uma iCanberra ikhetha ngokwentando ye-Australia ukuthi idingani eShayina: izitimela zesimanjemanje, i-inthanethi esheshayo, kanye nemboni yezemithi ezinze e-Australia, isibonelo. Esikhundleni salokho, abezindaba bakwa-Murdoch badwebe ngokungapheli undunankulu we-Victorian uDaniel Andrews, owayebhalisele i-BRI, njengesitobha samaKhomanisi esigqoke inkanyezi ebomvu. Uhulumeni ukopishe umthetho we-United States' McCarthyist 'abenzeli bethonya langaphandle' futhi wafaka amademoni abantu base-Australia ababengahlangene neChina, ngisho nezigidigidi zaseShayina zase-Australia iminikelo yazo yomusa kuze kube u-2017 yamukelwe.⁷

Ekuvakasheni okubalulekile eSydney ngo-Agasti 2019, uSolwazi John Mearsheimer waphawula ukuthi 'i-Australia ivumelana nayo yonke into kalula kangakanani'.⁸ Isikhulu sezempi esiphenduke isifundiswa saxwayisa ngokuthi i-United States ayinakho ukubekezelela ukuncintisana kontanga. Abanye kwabalaleli bakhe bahleke ngokwesaba, kungathi uyadlala uma ethi i-Australia ayikho enye indlela ngaphandle kokuchema ne-United States, futhi izojeziswa uma yenze iphutha lokuqoka iChina.

Njengoba i-COVID-19 ibhebhetheka, uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle uMarise Payne ngo-Ephreli 2020 wabophezela ababungazi bakhe baseMelika ngokukhipha ikhwelo lokuthi 'uphenyo oluzimele lwamazwe ngamazwe' mayelana nomsuka walo bhubhane, lapho iChina yaphendula khona ngokuvimba kancane kancane ukungenisa okuvela e-Australia. Imikhiqizo yaseMelika ngokushesha yathatha indawo yase-Australia emakethe yaseShayina enenzuzo. Uma abaphathi beBiden befuna ukwenza iChina idemoni ngenkathi i-Australia ithatha ukushisa futhi i-United States yenza umoya, kusebenze impela.

I-Anglo-autarky ikleliswe ukubhekana nomhlaba. Okokuqala, uMongameli uBiden wafaka esakhe isiqubulo esithi, 'IMelika Ibuyile' esikhundleni sikaTrump 'Make America Great Again'. Eqinisweni, ngaphandle kokuthuthuka ekuguqukeni kwesimo sezulu, ubuyisele iMelika emuva, evuselela isifiso saseMelika sangemva kweMpi Yezwe Yesibili yokuqukatha umthelela 'weShayina yamaKhomanisi'. I-United States ka-Biden ngeke ivume ukunqotshwa, ilahle izimpi zayo zokuphuma noma yabelane ngobuholi bomhlaba neChina. Okwesibili, iBrithani, njengoba ihlukanisile ne-EU, futhi ifuna ukubuyisela isabelo sayo sobukhulu obudlule, izoshintshanisa amasu ezobuchwepheshe, ubuhlakani kanye nenkulumo-ze ngaphesheya kwe-Atlantic futhi ithumele imikhumbi yasolwandle emanzini aseMpumalanga Asia okokuqala ngqa kusukela ekuhoxisweni eMpumalanga yeSuez. Futhi ingxenye yesithathu ekude, i-Australia izobabophezela bobabili ngokuhambisana nakho konke lokhu, yenze isitha somlingani wayo omkhulu wezohwebo, ikhohlwe ngamasiko amaningi kanye nokusebenzelana ne-Asia, nokulungiselela impi engekho emthethweni ngokumelene neChina. Uma leyo mpi yenzeka, i-Australia izoba yindawo eyisibonelo yaseChina, futhi noma ngabe abalingani base-Atlantic bayangenelela noma cha, umphumela uzoba ukunqotshwa noma ukubhujiswa.

Imicimbi emnyama

I-AUKUS iwumkhiqizo wokugcina wochungechunge olude kakhulu lwemicimbi. Abaphathi abalandelanayo base-US badale izitha ezintsha ngokuphindaphindiwe, basebenzisa izinto ezingelona iqiniso (njengesigameko sase-Gulf of Tonkin kanye 'Nezikhali Zokubhujiswa Okuningi' yase-Iraq) ukuze benze imvume ezimpini abazikhethele bona. Uma ikhulu leminyaka laseMelika, njengoba uHenry Luce amemezela, laqala ngeMpi Yezwe Yesibili, laqhubeka nesiko lempi lapho i-United States yasungulwa khona. I-US hegemony kanye nokuqedwa kokumelana nayo kwakhuthazwa yi-War and Peace Studies Project,⁹ iMarshall Plan yaseJalimane, nezinye izikhungo ezifanayo.

Behlale bedinga isitha, abantu baseMelika baye bathuthuka kancane kancane ekudaluleni amademoni kanye ne-disinformation, imvume yokukhiqiza kanye noxhaso lwezimali zezimpi eziqhubekayo, ezishisayo noma ezibandayo, nokudala ubuchwepheshe bezokuxhumana obuletha inkulumo-ze yabo. Ngaphakathi, izimpi zamenyezelwa ngokulandelana ngokuhlukana, izidakamizwa, ubumpofu nokuhushula isisu, kodwa hhayi ngezibhamu. Ngaphandle, ngemva kuka-1945 isitha esisha sabantu baseMelika sasiwubuKhomanisi; kwase kuba ukuncintisana kwenuzi okuvela eSoviet Union; ngemva kokuwa kwe-USSR kwafika ubuphekula; bese kuba yi-Iran. Okulandelayo yiShayina.

'Inhlekelele kuphela-eyangempela noma ecatshangwayo-ekhiqiza ushintsho lwangempela', uMilton Friedman wabhala encwadini yakhe ka-1962. Ubunxiwankulu kanye Nenkululeko. Bafunda kulowo mthetho, ngoSepthemba 2000 amalungu e-neo-conservative eProject for a New American Century (PNAC) akhiqiza. Ukwakha Kabusha Izivikelo ZaseMelika: Amasu, Amabutho, Nezinsiza Zekhulu Leminyaka Elisha. Kuyo bahlongoze isidingo 'soguquko oluguquguqukayo', oluzodinga 'isehlakalo esidala inhlekelele—njengePearl Harbor entsha'. Ukuhlasela kwe-9/11 kweWorld Trade Center kanye nePentagon kwakuwumcimbi onjalo nje, okuholele ekutheni iCongress iphasise umthetho wePatriot Act kanye nokugunyazwa kokusetshenziswa kwebutho lezempi elimelene namaphekula, okwenza izimpi ezazisaliwa emashumini amabili eminyaka kamuva, ezinde kakhulu. emlandweni wase-US. Impi yobushokobezi yadala i-blowback.¹⁰

AmaSulumane afuna ukuziphindiselela emhlabeni wonke ngokuhlaselwa kwamazwe abo kanye namaSulumane akanye nawo. Ababaleki abavela eMpumalanga Ephakathi babaleke banqamula iYurophu, bashintsha ichweba laseCalais laba 'ihlathi'. IBrithani yakhetha ukungahambisani nokucwaswa kwabokufika kanye nesehlukaniso eYurophu. Abaholi be-Conservative ababenethemba lokuthi i-United Kingdom izoba nkulu futhi bazihlanganise ne-United States, kuhlanganise ne-neo-conservatives yayo, futhi bafaka amademoni eRussia. Izikhungo ezifanayo zasungulwa e-United Kingdom nase-United States ukuze kuqhutshekwe nenqubo. Bahlanganisa i-Gatestone Institute, eholwa nguJohn Bolton, kanye ne-pro-Israel Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), eyayifuna ngokusobala ukuthonya inqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US eMpumalanga Ephakathi. I-FPI yasungulwa ngo-2009, ngawo lowo nyaka njengoba i-Institute for Statecraft (IfS) yaqala eBrithani 'njengenhlangano esiza abantulayo', elandelwa ihlumela layo, Integrity Initiative (II), ngo-2015. New Knowledge, eyasungulwa njenge-IfS ngo-2015, ivumile ukuthi iqhube umsebenzi 'wefulegi lamanga' okhethweni lweSenethi yase-Alabama lwango-2018.¹¹ I-FPI yahlakazwa ngo-2017, kwathi i-IfS ne-II yathula ngemuva kokuputshuzwa kobukhona bazo ngasekupheleni kuka-2018.

Ngo-Okthoba 2016 umsunguli we-II, owayeyisikhulu sezobunhloli uChristopher Donnelly, wahlangana nojenene osewathatha umhlalaphansi uSir Richard Barrons futhi bavumelana ngokuthi i-United Kingdom kufanele ichithe u-£7 billion ngaphezulu ngonyaka kwezempi 'ukuze ibhekane neRussia neChina'.¹² Baphakamise isidingo 'sesehlakalo esiyinhlekelele' esizodala isivumelwano somphakathi, benanela isimemezelo sika-Robert Kagan ku-PNAC ngoSepthemba 2000 sokuba kube nenhlekelele esungulwe ukuze ibangele uguquko. Ngokuqondisa i-Russia kanye nemiphakathi ekhuluma isi-Russian ngemilayezo yayo ye-pro-US, i-IfS exhaswe ngezimali yaseMelika neBrithani 'izoqinisa umthelela we-UK eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu ngemva kweBrexit'. Wabhala kanjalo uJames Ball, a Guardian intatheli ehlotshaniswa no-II.¹³ UDonnelly wabiza ucingo

uhlobo olusha lwempi, uhlobo olusha lwengxabano, uhlobo olusha lokuncintisana, lapho yonke into iba yisikhali: ulwazi, izinsiza zamandla, ukuhlasela kwe-cyber-attack wonke umuntu azi ngakho, inkohlakalo ngokwayo, ukutshalwa kwezimali - zonke lezi zinto sezikhona manje. izikhali ezingxabanweni zanamuhla phakathi kwezifundazwe, naphakathi kwezifundazwe nabalingisi bezifundazwe ezingaphansi njenge-Daesh [IS]. Futhi i-disinformation yindaba ehlanganisa zonke ezinye izikhali zalolu dweshu futhi ezinikeza isici sesithathu.¹⁴

II yaphindwaphindwa ngo-2019 yiBellingcat's Open Information Partnership, eyayithi yenza imibiko 'esekelwe ebufakazini', kuyilapho isekela ama-psy-ops ase-US nase-UK ngokumelene neRussia, Iran nabanye.¹⁵ Isungulwe umphenyi oyimfundamakhwela waseBrithani u-Eliot Higgins, iBellingcat inikeza isiteshi somphakathi sezinkampani zezokuphepha zaseBrithani ezifuna ukusakaza izinguqulo zazo zezenzakalo zakamuva, isibonelo, e-Ukraine, Syria nase-Salisbury.

Zisebenza 'endaweni empunga', lezi nezinye izinhlangano ezingabazisayo zinenkolelo eyodwa: impi kufanele iqhubeke. Imvume yomphakathi kulokho uDonald Rumsfeld akubiza ngokuthi 'impi engapheli yokuthula okungapheli' kuncike ekudaleni ukwesaba. Yini okwakumelwe yesatshwe ngaphezu kobuphekula? Ngakho-ke 'impi yobuphekula' yomhlaba wonke yaba ukusungulwa kobuhlakani yilabo abathanda impi. Bekungeke kuthiwe unqotshiwe noma wehluliwe. Noma yimuphi umcimbi wamaphekula wafakazela ukuthi kwakusamele kuliwe, futhi lapho amasosha eqhubeka ehlasela amaphekula futhi amaphekula efuna ukuziphindiselela, kuyanda ukubuthwa kanye nezinsiza kugeleza nhlangothi zombili. Kwakuyimpi yaphakade 'ephelele', yingakho yasabalala isuka e-Afghanistan yaya e-Iraq, isuka eLibya iya eSyria, eNyakatho Afrika naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Kwaqhubeka e-Afghanistan isikhathi eside kunanoma iyiphi enye impi yase-US-emva kwezinhloso zayo zokuqala, ukuthola u-Osama bin Laden nokujezisa i-al-Qaeda ngokuhlaselwa kwe-United States ngo-9/11, zakhohlwa.

Impi yobushokobezi yavula 'ugibe lwamaphekula', lapho i-United States namadlelandawonye ayo bawela khona ngokuzibophezela. Nakuba amaphekula angama-Islamist ayembalwa futhi engenazo izinsizakusebenza, nakuba ayebulale futhi elimaza izinkulungwane ezimbalwa, izitha zawo zaseNtshonalanga ezazihlome kahle zachitha izigidigidi, zaqeda futhi zalimaza izigidi zezimpilo, zadala inzondo eyengeziwe kanye nobuphekula obengeziwe, futhi azizuzanga lutho. Bahlanganisa i-Australia, futhi basakwenza.

Hlehla e-Afghanistan, kodwa hhayi ngenxa yokwesaba

Ukuthunyelwa kwezempi okukhulu akuqali noma kuphele ngobusuku obubodwa, nakuba kuvame ukubikwa kanjalo. UMongameli uTrump wahlangana nobuholi beTaliban ngoFebhuwari 2020 futhi wanikeza i-US 'ukuhoxa' ngoMeyi 2021, okwenza amaTaliban abhale imigomo yokunqoba kwawo. Kungekudala ngemuva kokugcotshwa kwakhe, uMongameli Biden wathembisa ukuthi kuzophela wonke amabutho aseMelika, kanye nehhovisi lenxusa, ekupheleni kuka-Agasti. Unikeze amaTaliban isikhathi esiningi sokuzilungiselela.

Ukuhlehla okunesiphithiphithi okuvela e-Afghanistan kukhumbule okuhlangenwe nakho kwe-USSR ngo-1989 kanye neBrithani ngo-1842 no-1919. Abantu base-Afghan babekwazi njalo ukudlula abahlaseli babo. Futhi, kwakuyifeksi yokuhlangenwe nakho kwase-US eVietnam ngo-1975, ngaphandle kokuthi amaVietnam aseNingizimu amelana isikhathi eside kunozakwabo ababesekelwa yi-US eKabul. ENingizimu Vietnam, i-United States yabulala abaholi ababengasebenzi kahle; e-Afghanistan, amakhasimende aseMelika abaleke nezikhwama zemali.

Ukuqhuma kwamabhomu ngokuzibulala eSangweni le-Abbott lesikhumulo sezindiza sase-Kabul kanye nokuhlasela okwalandela kwe-ISIS-K kwanweba impi yobushokobezi. UBiden waze wananela nolimi lukaBush oluqaphile, exwayisa amaphekula, 'Sizonizingela, sizonenza nikhokhe'. Kanjalo noGeneral Frank McKenzie, inhloko yeCentral Command, owayala iPentagon ukuthi ihlele iziteleka ezimpahleni ze-ISIS-K 'ngesikhathi nasendaweni esiyikhethayo'. Ngesikhathi umhlaba ulindile, uLeon Panetta, owayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela ngaphansi kuka-Obama eminyakeni lapho i-ISIS-K iqala, wamemezela ukuthi i-United States 'ingashiya inkundla yempi kodwa ngeke siyishiye impi yobuphekula, usongo ezweni lethu'. Futhi umkhulumeli wezindaba wePentagon, uJohn Kirby, ukhombe 'izinsongo zobuphekula ezithembekile' eKabul, ethi i-United States izilungiselele ukuhlasela okwengeziwe.¹⁶ Akazange asho ukuthi bazokwenzenjani ngabo.

AmaRiphabhulikhi nawo ashesha ngokufanayo ukuvuselela ulimi oludala. KuCongress banxuse uMongameli Biden ukuthi aqhubeke nokulwa 'nempi yobushokobezi', ngokusobala ekhohlwe ukuthi u-Obama wenqabile ukusebenzisa le nkulumo, futhi uTrump wayizonda njengempi yomehluli. Umholi weqembu elincane leNdlu uMitch McConnell, ovalelwe ogibeni lwabashokobezi, ucele i-United States ukuthi iqinise imizamo yayo yokulwa nobushokobezi. Uthe ngenxa yokuthi iMelika iyekile ukulwa nabashokobezi, ngeke bayeke ukulwa ne-US.¹⁷

E-Australia, ukuhoxa okuvela eKabul kuvuselele izexwayiso ezijwayelekile mayelana nobuphekula. Owayengundunankulu uKevin Rudd wabikezela ukuthi i-Afghanistan ingase futhi ibe yindawo ephephile yamaphekula.¹⁸ Ngokuka-Rodger Shanahan we-Lowy Institute, 'intshisekelo enkulu eyinsalela' yamazwe aseNtshonalanga e-Afghanistan ubuphekula, njengoba kwakunjalo eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule.¹⁹ Undunankulu wayizolo uJohn Howard uxwayise abantu base-Australia, njengoba ayenzile ngo-2001, ukuthi baqaphe kodwa bangethuki 'ngosongo olucashile lobuphekula', okuhlanganisa nesifunda sakithi. Akekho owasho ukuthi i-Australia kufanele yenzeni ngakho. Akekho oshilo ukuthi uma ubuphekula busewusongo olunjalo ngemva kweminyaka engamashumi amabili, singase sidinge indlela ehlukile kule ebesilokhu siyithatha kusukela ngo-2001.

Abanduleli bakaBiden babefuna kodwa behluleka ukuqeda 'impi yaphakade' yaseMelika. Ngenkathi uBiden efuna udumo ngokwenza lokho, ubevele ehlela lokho okuzolandela ukuhoxa kweMelika. Isitha sakhe esisha esinguNombolo 2019 kuzoba 'yiShayina yamaKhomanisi'. UBiden wathumela abaphathi bemikhumbi emikhulu eSouth China Sea, bahlanganisa i-Quad ukuze baqukathe iChina e-Indo-Pacific, futhi wajuba ithimba laseMelika ukuthi libuze ngemvelaphi yamaShayina ye-coronavirus, okuhlanganisa nokuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi abantu baseMelika batheleleke eWuhan ngo-Okthoba. 9. Ngokucasulayo, lowo mbiko waphuma ngoSepthemba, uhambisana neminyaka engamashumi amabili yokuhlasela 'kobuphekula' ngomhla ka-11/19. Kepha akushintshile lutho obekwaziwa kakade nge-COVID-XNUMX, futhi akuvumanga iqhaza laseMelika kuyo, yize ucwaningo lukaSharri Markson lukhombisa ukuthi yayikhona. ²⁰

Akekho oshilo ukuthi i-China ayihlangene nhlobo no-9/11, noma ukuthi i-China igxile ezinkingeni zayo, okuhlanganisa 'ubuphekula' obugqugquzelwa kwamanye amazwe phakathi kwababhikishi base-Uighur nabase-Hong Kong. I-Beijing iheha ohulumeni ukuthi bajoyine izinhlelo zabo zokubambisana kulo lonke elangaphambili eliphakathi kweMpumalanga Ephakathi, manje elibizwa ngokuthi 'i-West Asia'. I-China ibe umngane we-Taliban's Afghanistan kanye ne-Ayatollahs' Iran, futhi i-Afghanistan ihlinzeka ngezinto zokuhamba zikawoyela negesi ukusuka e-Tajikistan kudlule ePakistan kuya oLwandle lwase-Arabia. Ngakho-ke, ngisho nangaphandle kweTaiwan kanye noLwandle LwaseNingizimu China, iChina iyisitha saseMelika: imbangi ye-US hegemony kanye nomxhasi wempi engapheli yobushokobezi. Kusho Zanele.

Abantu baseMelika balwe 'impi yobushokobezi' e-Afghanistan, e-Iraq, ePakistan, eLibya, eSomalia, eSyria, eYemen nasePhilippines, ngokusekelwa yi-Australia okungenani kwamane kulawa mazwe. Izenzo zezempi ezihlobene ne-US zenzeke eGeorgia, Cuba, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Turkey, Niger, Cameroon, Jordan, Lebanon, Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, I-Mauritania, iNigeria neTunisia, kanye nasezilwandle eziningana.²¹ Ubuphekula bungase bube ibhaxa lezinye izimpi.

Impi elandelayo

Ngaphandle kokumbalwa kakhulu, wonke umongameli wase-US uye wabhekana nempi. Impi yindlela i-United States ehlala ibhekana ngayo nezingxabano futhi iphishekela izintshisekelo zayo zezomnotho. Zonke izifundazwe zase-US zinezakhiwo eziyinkimbinkimbi zokuphepha kwezempi nezimboni abantu bendawo abathembele kuzo ukuze baqashwe. I-United States ayikaze iwine impi ebalulekile kusukela ngo-1945, kodwa lokho akuvimbeli imboni yezempi ekutholeni amanye amathuba. Kunezisekelo ezingaba ngu-750 zase-US kwamanye amazwe angamashumi ayisishiyagalombili, lapho abantu baseMelika beqapha futhi becindezela ohulumeni abaphethe. Abaholi abamelana nezimfuno zase-US kungenzeka basuswe ukuzinza, basuswe noma babulawe. Cabanga ngentukuthelo uma iChina noma iRussia yenze lokhu!

Ngaphambi nje kwe-AUKUS, ochwepheshe base-Australia badelela ukusebenzisana kwethu ne-United States, kanye nokuzimisela kwethu okungangabazeki—ukulangazelela, ngisho—ukulwa ezimpini zaseMelika ezazingahlangene nokuvikela i-Australia. URichard Tanter, uHugh White, uMax Suich nabanye babona i-Australia njengengenayo inkululeko esele kunqubomgomo yangaphandle noma yezokuvikela.²² Lokho kusho ukuthi uma impi elandelayo imelene neChina, phezu kweTaiwan, iSouth noma i-East China Sea, noma umcimbi othile oqanjiwe, i-Australia izobandakanyeka, izoba yisisulu esiyinhloko, futhi izolahlekelwa yimpi. I-China ayiyona iTaliban.

Kodwa i-United States ihlale ifuna umfelandawonye, ​​njenge-AUKUS. Okuwukuphela kwendlela yase-Australia, uma uMorrison ebeka izwe phambilini ngaphambi kwezifiso zakhe zokhetho, ukutshela i-United States kusenesikhathi ukuthi i-Australia ngeke ijoyine ababambisene nayo kule ngxabano.

¹ U-Katharine Murphy, 'I-Essential Poll: Iningi Labase-Australia Babuyela I-Aukus Submarine Pact, Kodwa Besaba Kuzobhebhethekisa Ukungezwani neChina', The Guardian, 28 Septhemba 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/28/essential-poll-majority-of-australians-back-aukus-submarine-pact-but-fear-it-will -shisa-ukungezwani-nge-china

² http://www.news.cn/English/2021-09/29/c_1310215827.htm

³ UScott Morrison no-Boris Johnson, abacashunwe ku-Anthony Galloway, 'I-Australia Inxuswa Ukujulisa I-South-East Asia Engagement', I-Sydney Morning Herald, 8 Okthoba 2021, ikhasi 15.

⁴ Bheka uClinton Fernandes, 'I-International Rules-based Order', Arena cha. 7, 2021.

⁵ Isitatimende Esihlanganyelwe I-Australia-US Ministerial Consultions (AUSMIN) 2021, Umnyango Wezangaphandle Nohwebo,

https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/united-states-of-america/ausmin/joint-statement-australia-us-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2021, Umnyango Wezwe wase-US, https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-australia-u-s-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2021/; UMalcolm Fraser, 'Australia–US Relations in the “Asian Century”', Akabusha Umagazini cha. 120, 2012.

⁶ U-Richard Tanter, ukuhanjiswa ku-Independent and Peaceful Australia Network People's Enquiry into the Costs of War, 2021.

⁷ Bona uchungechunge lwezindatshana ze-'War Dance: Reversal' ka-Max Suich ku Ukubuyekezwa Kwezezimali zase-Australia: 'I-Australia Yaphuma Kanjani Kabi Ngaphambili eChina', , 17 Meyi 2021; 'Ukungqubuzana kweChina: Besicabangani?', 18 May 2021; 'I-US-Australia Alliance ku-China Ibonisa Ukuthi Kungcono Ukusheshe Uhambe, Hamba Kanzima', 19 May 2021.

⁸ U-Alison Broinowski, 'I-Australia Ivuma Konke', Amaparele nokuCasulwa, 14 Agasti 2019, https://johnmenadue.com/alison-broinowski-australia-agrees-to-everything/

⁹ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_and_Peace_Studies

¹⁰ Chalmers Johnson, Blowback: Izindleko Nemiphumela Yombuso waseMelika, New York: Owl Books, 2001.

¹¹ https://www.newknowledge.com/about-us/; UDavid McIlwain, 'The Two Eyes Phase Two', AmericanI-Herald Tribune, 11 January 2019,

¹² U-Robert Stevens, 'I-UK Integrity Initiative Ehileleke Kakhulu Endabeni Ye-Skripal', Isizindalwazi Somhlaba Wonke Somphakathi, 7 January 2019,

¹³ James Ball, 'Lapho Imiphakathi Yamahhala Ikopisha Amaqhinga Emidiya YaseRussia, Kukhona Owinile Oyedwa Kuphela', The Guardian, 10 January 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/09/free-societies-russia-misinformation-integrity-initiative#comment-124442900

¹⁴ I-YouTube, 'Chris Donnelly Speaks on Disinformation, for the Institute for Statecraft', Tony Kevin transcript, 4 January 2019.

¹⁵ Kit Klarenberg, 'Isinyathelo Sobuqotho Ekufihleni? I-Whitehall Yethula I-Secret European “Disinformation Factory”', ISputnik International, 4 kuNtulikazi 2019, https://sputniknews.com/20190704/open-information-partnership-integrity-initiative-1076147867.html; UMax Blumenthal, 'i-Reuters, i-BBC, kanye ne-Bellingcat Babambe iqhaza Ezinhlelweni Ezixhaswe Ngehhovisi Lezangaphandle lase-UK le-Covert ukuze "Yenze buthaka i-Russia," Amadokhumenti Aputshuziwe Embula', IGreyzone, 20 February 2021, https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/20/reuters-bbc-uk-foreign-office-russian-media/.

Bheka u-Eliot Higgins, We are Bellingcat: Inhlangano Yezobunhloli Yabantu, ELondon: I-Bloomsbury Publishing, 2021.

¹⁶ UJoan E. Greve, '"Okunye Ukuhlasela Kwamaphekula eKabul Kungenzeka," I-White House ithi-Njengoba Kwenzeka', The Guardian, 28 Agasti 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/aug/27/us-politics-live-joe-biden-afghanistan-democrats-republicans-latest-news?page=with:block-6128fad88f08b30431f83e80

¹⁷ Greve, '“Okunye Ukuhlasela Kwamaphekula”'.

¹⁸ U-Kevin Rudd, ku-David Crowe, 'Isizwe "Esilungiselelwe Kangcono" Ukuhlasela', I-Sydney Morning Herald, 4–5 Septhemba 2021, amakhasi 1, 6.

¹⁹ Rodger Shanahan, 'Imithelela Ekuvikelekeni KwaseNtshonalanga Kukude Nokuxazululwa', I-Australia, 3 Septhemba 2021, ikhasi 9.

²⁰ Sharri Markson, Kwenzekeni Ngempela eWuhan?, UMelbourne: HarperCollins, 2021.

²¹ UDavid Swanson, 'Yini Impi Yokwesaba Esisibize Ngayo Kuze kube manje', Ake sizame ngentando yeningi, 30 Agasti 2021, https://davidswanson.org/what-the-war-of-terror-has-cost-us-so-far/

²² Richard Tanter, isethulo kuKomidi Elincane Lezokuvikela, IKomidi Elimisiwe Elihlangene Lezindaba Zangaphandle, Ezokuvikela Nokuhweba, uphenyo ngezinzuzo nobungozi beSivumelwano Sokuvikela sase-Australia se-Bipartisan, njengesisekelo sokuhlela, nokuxhaswa ngezimali, amandla e-Australian Defense, 2 Novemba 2017; U-Richard Tanter, 'Okubi, Kubi, i-BADA (eyaziwa nangokuthi i-Bipartisan Australian Defense Agreement)', Amapharele & Ukucasuka, 1 Mashi 2018, https://johnmenadue.com/richard-tanter-bad-bad-bada-aka-bipartisan-australian-defence-agreement/.