Ngaba sikhubeka kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi III eUkraine?

 Imikhosi yase-US kunye ne-Ukraine iya kumsitho wokuvula "i-RAPID TRIDENT-2021" yokuzivocavoca emkhosini.

NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Matshi 13, 2024

Umongameli uBiden waqala intetho yakhe yobume beManyano ngochuku isilumkiso ukuba ukusilela ukudlulisa izixhobo zakhe ezixabisa iidola ezingama-61 ezigidi zeedola eUkraine “kuya kubeka iUkraine emngciphekweni, iYurophu ibe semngciphekweni, ihlabathi elikhululekileyo libe semngciphekweni.” Kodwa nokuba isicelo sikamongameli besinokuwiswa ngequbuliso, bekuya kuyenza inde, kwaye inyuke ngokuyingozi imfazwe ekhohlakeleyo etshabalalisa iUkraine.

Ingcinga yeqela lezopolitiko lase-US lokuba iBiden yayinesicwangciso esisebenzayo sokoyisa iRussia kwaye ibuyisele imida yaseUkraine yangaphambi kuka-2014 ibonakalise ukuba liphupha elinye loloyiso laseMelika elijike laba liphupha elibi. I-Ukraine ijoyine iNorth Korea, iVietnam, iSomalia, iKosovo, i-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, iHaiti, iLibya, iSyria, iYemen, kwaye ngoku iGaza, njengesinye isikhumbuzo esaphukileyo saseMelika. impambano yomkhosi.

Le yayinokuba yenye yeemfazwe ezimfutshane kwimbali, ukuba uMongameli uBiden wayesandula ukuxhasa isivumelwano soxolo nokungathathi hlangothi eTurkey ngoMatshi nango-Epreli ka-2022 esele sinabo. iicorks ze-champagne ephuma eKyiv, ngokutsho kwe-Ukraine u-Oleksiy Arestovych. Endaweni yoko, i-US kunye ne-NATO bakhetha ukwandisa kunye nokunyusa imfazwe njengendlela yokuzama ukoyisa kunye nokwenza buthathaka iRashiya.

Kwiintsuku ezimbini phambi kwentetho ka-Biden yeNyunyana, unobhala welizwe uBlinken wabhengeza umhlala-phantsi obambeleyo weSekela likaNobhala welizwe uVictoria Nuland, elinye lawona magosa anoxanduva lweshumi leminyaka yomgaqo-nkqubo oyintlekele wase-US ukuya eUkraine.

Kwiiveki ezimbini ngaphambi kokubhengezwa kokuthatha umhlalaphantsi kukaNuland eneminyaka engama-62 ubudala, wavuma kwintetho kwiZiko leSifundo seSicwangciso kunye neSifundo saMazwe ngaMazwe (CSIS) ukuba imfazwe yaseUkraine iye yajika yaba yimfazwe yokuqhatha awayithelekisa neMfazwe yeHlabathi yokuQala. , kwaye yena avunywa ukuba ulawulo lwe-Biden alunaPlan B ye-Ukraine ukuba iCongress ayikhohlisi i-61 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zezixhobo ezininzi.

Asazi nokuba uNuland wagxothwa na, okanye wayeka uqhanqalazo ngenxa yomgaqo-nkqubo awawulwelayo waze waphulukana nawo. Nokuba yeyiphi na indlela, ukukhwela kwakhe ekutshoneni kwelanga kuvulela abanye ucango ukwenza iPlani B efuneka kakhulu yaseUkraine.

Okunyanzelekileyo kufuneka kube kukutshatisa indlela ebuyayo kule mfazwe ingenathemba kodwa isoloko isiya isiya kwitafile yothethathethwano eyathi yaphakanyiswa yi-US neBritane ngo-Epreli ka-2022 - okanye ubuncinci ukuya kuthethathethwano olutsha ngesiseko sokuba uMongameli Zelenskyy. ichazwe ngoMatshi 27, 2022, xa wathi kubantu bakhe, “Usukelo lwethu lucacile: uxolo nokubuyisela ubomi obuqhelekileyo kwilizwe lethu ngokukhawuleza kangangoko kunokwenzeka.”

Endaweni yoko, ngoFebruwari 26, ngophawu olukhathazayo kakhulu apho umgaqo-nkqubo we-NATO ukhokelela khona, uMongameli waseFransi u-Emmanuel Macron wabonisa ukuba iinkokeli zaseYurophu ezihlangeneyo eParis zixubushe ngokuthumela inani elikhulu lamajoni asemhlabeni aseNtshona e-Ukraine.

UMacron uveze ukuba amalungu e-NATO anyuse ngokuthe ngcembe inkxaso yawo ukuya kumanqanaba angenakucingelwa xa kwaqala imfazwe. Wabalaselisa umzekelo waseJamani, owanika i-Ukraine kuphela izigcina-ntloko kunye neengxowa zokulala ekuqaleni kwengxabano kwaye ngoku ithi i-Ukraine idinga imijukujelwa kunye namatanki. “Abantu abathi “azange” namhlanje yayingabantu abafanayo abathi zange baphinde bakhwele iinqwelo-moya, bangaze baphinde babe nemijukujelwa yomgama omde, bangaze babe neelori. Batsho yonke loo nto kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ”uMacron khumbula. "Kufuneka sithobeke kwaye siqonde ukuba (besisoloko) sisemva kweenyanga ezintandathu ukuya kwezisibhozo."

UMacron uthe, njengoko imfazwe isiya isanda, amazwe e-NATO anokufuneka athumele eyawo imikhosi e-Ukraine, kwaye wathi mabakwenze oko kwakamsinya kunokuba bafune ukuphinda bathathe inyathelo emfazweni.

Ingcebiso nje yemikhosi yaseNtshona elwayo eUkraine ibangele isikhalo ngaphakathi kweFransi-ukusuka kwiRally yeSizwe yasekunene ukuya kwicala lasekhohlo laseLa France Insoumise-kunye nakwamanye amazwe e-NATO. Ingqonyela yaseJamani uOlaf Scholz wa gxi ninisa ukuba abo babenenxaxheba kuloo ntlanganiso “babemxhelo mnye” ekuchaseni ukuthunyelwa komkhosi. Amagosa aseRashiya lumkisa ukuba inyathelo elinjalo liya kuthetha imfazwe phakathi kweRashiya ne-NATO.

Kodwa njengoko umongameli wasePoland kunye nenkulumbuso besiya eWashington kwintlanganiso ye-White House ngoFebruwari 12, uMphathiswa Wezangaphandle wasePoland. Radek Sikorski uxelele ipalamente yasePoland ukuba ukuthumela imikhosi ye-NATO eUkraine "ayiyonto ingenakwenzeka."

Iinjongo zikaMacron zisenokuba ngokuchanekileyo ukuzisa le ngxoxo ekuhleni kwaye kupheliswe imfihlo ejikeleze umgaqo-nkqubo ongachazwanga wokunyuka kancinci ukuya kwimfazwe epheleleyo kunye neRussia elandelwa yiNtshona iminyaka emibini.

UMacron usilele ukukhankanya esidlangalaleni ukuba, phantsi komgaqo-nkqubo wangoku, imikhosi ye-NATO sele ibandakanyeka ngokunzulu emfazweni. Phakathi ubuxoki obuninzi ukuba uMongameli uBiden wayixelela kwintetho yakhe yeManyano yeManyano, wagxininisa ukuba "akukho majoni aseMelika emfazweni eUkraine."

Nangona kunjalo, i-trove yePentagon amaxwebhu yavuza ngoMatshi ka-2023 ibandakanya uvavanyo lokuba sele kukho imikhosi ye-97 ye-NATO ekhethekileyo esebenza e-Ukraine, kuquka i-50 yaseBritani, i-14 yaseMelika kunye ne-15 yaseFransi. U-Admiral John Kirby, isithethi seBhunga loKhuseleko lweSizwe, uye wavuma "ubukho obuncinane base-US" obusekelwe kwi-Embassy yase-US e-Kyiv ukuzama ukugcina amawaka eetoni zezixhobo zase-US njengoko zifika e-Ukraine.

Kodwa imikhosi emininzi yase-US, nokuba ingaphakathi okanye ngaphandle kweUkraine, ibandakanyeka ekucwangciseni umkhosi waseUkraine Imisebenzi; ukubonelela ngolwazi lwesathelayithi; kunye nokudlala kubalulekile iindima ekujoliseni izixhobo zase-US. Igosa lase-Ukraine lixelele iWashington Post ukuba imikhosi yase-Ukraine ayinakuze itshise iirokethi ze-HIMARS ngaphandle kwedatha echanekileyo enikezelwe yimikhosi yase-US eYurophu.

Yonke le mikhosi yase-US kunye ne-NATO ngokuqinisekileyo "imfazwe e-Ukraine." Ukuba semfazweni kwilizwe elinamanani amancinci kuphela "eebhutsi emhlabeni" ibe luphawu lwe-21st Century US yokwenza imfazwe, njengoko nawuphi na umqhubi weNavy ophethe inqwelomoya okanye umqhubi wedrone eNevada unokungqina. Yiyo kanye le mfundiso "yomda" kunye nemfazwe yeproxy esemngciphekweni wokuphuma kulawulo eUkraine, ikhupha iMfazwe yeHlabathi yesiThathu ukuba uMongameli uBiden abe nayo. wafunga ukuba uza kukuphepha.

I-United States kunye ne-NATO zizamile ukugcina ukunyuka kwemfazwe phantsi kolawulo ngokwenza ngabom, ukunyuka okunyukayo kweentlobo zezixhobo abazinikezelayo kunye nokuqaphela, ukwanda okufihlakeleyo kokubandakanyeka kwabo. Oku kufaniswa ne “ukubilisa isele,” ukunyusa ubushushu ngokuthe ngcembe ukuphepha nayiphi na intshukumo yequbuliso enokuwela “umgca obomvu” waseRashiya ize ibangele a imfazwe epheleleyo phakathi kwe-NATO neRashiya. Kodwa njengoko uNobhala-Jikelele we-NATO uJens Stoltenberg walumkisa ngoDisemba ka-2022, "Ukuba izinto zingahambi kakuhle, zinokuhamba kakubi."

Kudala sixakwa koku kuphikisana kucacileyo entliziyweni ye-US kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo we-NATO. Kwelinye icala, siyakholelwa ukuba uMongameli uBiden xa esithi akafuni ukuqala IMfazwe Yehlabathi III. Kwelinye icala, yiloo nto umgaqo-nkqubo wakhe wokwenyuka okhokelela kuyo ngokungenakuphikiswa.

Amalungiselelo e-US emfazwe neRussia sele ephikisana nemfuneko ekhoyo yokuqulatha impixano. NgoNovemba ka-2022, isiHlomelo seReed-Inhofe kuMthetho we-FY2023 woGunyaziso lweSizwe loKhuselo (NDAA) kufunwe ngexesha lemfazwe amandla kaxakeka ukugunyazisa uluhlu olungaqhelekanga lokuthenga izixhobo ezifana nezo zithunyelwe eUkraine, kunye nemvumelwano yeebhiliyoni zeedola, iminyaka emininzi yezivumelwano zokungabhidi kunye nabavelisi bezixhobo zokuthenga i-10 kumaxesha angama-20 ubuninzi bezixhobo eUnited States enazo. ngokwenene ithunyelwe eUkraine.

UColonel Mark odla umhlala-phantsi Cancian, owayesakuba yintloko yeCandelo loLwakhiwo loMkhosi noTyalo-mali kwiOfisi yoLawulo noHlahlo-lwabiwo-mali, wacacisa wathi, “Oku akuthathi ndawo oko sikunike [eUkraine]. Kukwakha iimfumba zemfazwe enkulu yasemhlabeni [neRashiya] kwixesha elizayo.”

Ke iUnited States ilungiselela ukulwa imfazwe enkulu yomhlaba kunye neRussia, kodwa izixhobo zokulwa loo mfazwe ziya kuthatha iminyaka ukuvelisa, kwaye, kunye okanye ngaphandle kwazo, ezinokukhula ngokukhawuleza zibe yimfazwe. imfazwe yenyukliya. Ukuthatha umhlala phantsi kukaNuland kwangethuba kunokuba sisiphumo sikaBiden kunye neqela lakhe lomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle ekugqibeleni baqala ukuqonda ubungozi obukhoyo bemigaqo-nkqubo enobundlongondlongo awayeyilwele.

Ngeli xesha, ukunyuka kweRussia ukusuka kwindawo yayo yokuqala "kuMsebenzi oKhethekileyo woMkhosi" ukuya kuthi ga ngoku. ukuzibophelela ye-7% ye-GDP yayo ukuya kwimfazwe kunye nemveliso yezixhobo iye yadlula ukunyuka kweNtshona, kungekhona nje kwimveliso yezixhobo kodwa kubasebenzi kunye namandla okwenene asemkhosini.

Omnye unokuthi iRashiya iphumelele imfazwe, kodwa oko kuxhomekeke ukuba zeziphi iinjongo zayo zemfazwe. Kukho umsantsa wokuzamla phakathi kweentetho ezivela kwiBiden kunye nezinye iinkokeli zaseNtshona malunga namabhongo aseRussia okuhlasela amanye amazwe aseYurophu kunye noko iRussia yayikulungele ukuzinza kwiingxoxo zaseTurkey ngo-2022, xa yavuma ukurhoxa kwizikhundla zayo zangaphambi kwemfazwe. njengembuyekezo yokuzibophelela okulula kokungathathi hlangothi kwe-Ukraine.

Ngaphandle kwemeko ebuthathaka kakhulu yaseUkraine emva kokungaphumeleli kokuhlasela kuka-2023 kunye nokukhusela kwayo okunexabiso eliphezulu kunye nelahleko ye-Avdiivka, imikhosi yaseRashiya ayibalekisi ngaseKyiv, okanye naseKharkiv, eOdesa okanye kumda wendalo woMlambo iDnipro.

Reuters eMoscow Bureau umbiko ukuba iRussia yachitha iinyanga izama ukuvula uthethathethwano olutsha kunye ne-United States ngasekupheleni kuka-2023, kodwa ukuba, ngoJanuwari 2024, uMcebisi wezoKhuseleko lweSizwe uJake Sullivan waluvala olocango ngokwala ukuxoxa nge-Ukraine.

Ekuphela kwendlela yokufumanisa ukuba iRussia ifuna ntoni na, okanye iya kuzinza ngantoni na, kukubuyela kwitafile yothethathethwano. Onke amacala aneedemon omnye komnye kwaye abeka izikhundla eziphezulu, kodwa yiloo nto amazwe asemfazweni ayenzayo ukuze athethelele imibingelelo eziyifunayo kubantu bazo kunye nokugatya kwabo ezinye iindlela zozakuzo.

Uthethathethwano olunzima lwezozakuzo ngoku lubalulekile ukuze ufikelele kwi-nitty-gritty yento eza kuthatha ukuzisa uxolo eUkraine. Siqinisekile ukuba kukho iintloko ezilumkileyo ngaphakathi kwe-US, isiFrentshi kunye nabanye oorhulumente be-NATO abathetha oku nabo, emva kweengcango ezivaliweyo, kwaye mhlawumbi kungenxa yokuba i-Nuland iphumile kwaye kutheni uMacron ethetha ngokuphandle malunga nokuba umgaqo-nkqubo wangoku uyaphi. Sinethemba elikhulu lokuba kunjalo, kwaye iSicwangciso sikaBiden B siyakukhokelela umva kwitafile yothethathethwano, emva koko siqhubele phambili eluxolweni eUkraine.

UMedea Benjamin kunye noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Imfazwe e-Ukraine: Ukwenza ingqiqo yongquzulwano olungenangqiqo, epapashwe ngabakwa-OR Books ngoNovemba wama-2022.

UMedea uBenjamin ngumseki we CODEPINK yoxolo, kunye nombhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanya Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran.

UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi weCODEPINK kunye nombhali Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.

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