Khotso ea Lefatše ka Molao: Ho Etsa Ntoa ka Molao oa Lefatše Lohle

ka James Taylor Ranney

Sengoliloeng sena ke kakaretso ea buka e ncha ea James Ranney, Khotso ea Lefatše ka Molao. Reka buka mona¹

Re tlameha ho felisa ntoa. Ebang rea elelloa kapa che, mokhoa oa ho qoba ntoa ea nuclear ke taba ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa eo batho ba tobaneng le eona. Joalokaha HG Wells a boletse: “Haeba re sa felise ntoa, ntoa e tla re felisa.” Kapa, ​​joalokaha Mopresidente John F. Kennedy a boletse: “Moloko oa batho o tlameha ho felisa ntoa pele ntoa e felisa moloko oa batho.”    

Ho bonahala re sa nahane ka se boleloang ke lipolelo tse ka holimo. Bakeng sa haeba tlhahiso e ka holimo is 'nete, ho latela hore re hloka ho ntlafatsa mekhoa e meng ea ntoa. 'Me moo ho itšetlehileng ka ntlha e bonolo ea tlhahiso ea rona: mekhoa e meng ea lefats'e ea ho rarolla liqabang - tsamaiso ea mekhahlelo e mene ea lipuisano tse tlamang, ho kena lipakeng, ho ahlola, le ho ahlola.

Histori ea khopolo. Ena hase khopolo e ncha, leha e le hore ke khopolo e feteletseng. Tšimoloho ea eona e khutlela ho (1) rafilosofi ea tummeng oa molao oa Lebrithani Jeremy Bentham, eo ka 1789 Etsa moralo oa Khotso ea Bohle le e sa feleng, e ile ea etsa tlhahiso ea “Lekhotla le Tloaelehileng la Boahloli bakeng sa qeto ea liphapang pakeng tsa lichaba tse ’maloa.” Babuelli ba bang ba hlahelletseng ba akarelletsa: (2) Mopresidente Theodore Roosevelt, eo puong ea hae ea nako e telele ea ho amohela Moputso oa Khotso oa Nobel oa 1910 eo e neng e le khale a hlokomolohile a ile a fana ka tlhahiso ea hore ho be le lipuisano tsa machaba, lekhotla la lefatše, le “mofuta o mong oa matla a machaba a sepolesa” bakeng sa ho phethahatsa litaelo tsa lekhotla; (3) Mopresidente William Howard Taft, ea neng a tšehetsa "lekhotla la bo-ralitaba" le sepolesa sa machaba ho qobella ho sebelisana le ho ahlola; le (4) Mopresidente Dwight David Eisenhower, ea khothalelitseng hore ho thehoe “Lekhotla la Machaba la Toka” le nang le matla a tlamang le mofuta o itseng oa “matla a machaba a sepolesa a amoheloang hohle le a matla ka ho lekaneng ho fumana tlhompho ea lefatše lohle.” Qetellong, tabeng ena, tlas’a tsamaiso ea Eisenhower le Kennedy, “Polelo e Kopanetsoeng ea Melao-motheo e Tumellanoang bakeng sa Lipuisano tsa Theko ea Lihlomo” e ile ea buisanoa ka likhoeli tse ’maloa ke moemeli oa United States John J. McCloy le moemeli oa Soviet Valerian Zorin. Tumellano ena ea McCloy-Zorin, e fetisitsoeng ke Seboka se Akaretsang sa Machaba a Kopaneng ka la 20 Tšitoe, 1961 empa ha ea ka ea amoheloa qetellong, e nahanne ka ho theoa “mekhoa e tšepahalang ea ho rarolla likhohlano ka khotso” le sepolesa sa machaba se ka beng se bile le taolo ho bohle machabeng- sesole se sebetsang.  

Khotso ea Lefatše ka Molao (WPTL) e akaretsitse. Khopolo ea mantlha, e seng matla ho feta Tumellano ea McCloy-Zorin, e na le likarolo tse tharo: 1) ho felisoa ha libetsa tsa nyutlelie (ka phokotso e tsamaeang le matla a tloaelehileng); 2) mekhoa ea ho rarolla liqabang lefatšeng ka bophara; le 3) mekhoa e fapaneng ea ts'ebetso, ho tloha ho matla a maikutlo a sechaba ho isa lebothong la machaba la khotso.

1. Ho felisoa: hoa hlokahala ebile hoa khoneha: Ke nako ea Tumellano ea Pheliso ea Libetsa tsa Nyutlelie. Ho tloha ka Pherekhong 4, 2007 Wall Street Journal mohlophisi ke bao e kileng ea e-ba "li-realists tsa nyutlelie" Henry Kissinger (eo e kileng ea e-ba Mongoli oa Naha), Senator Sam Nunn, William Perry (Mongoli oa mehleng oa Tšireletso), le George Shultz (eo e kileng ea e-ba Mongoli oa Naha), Maikutlo a phahameng lefatšeng ka bophara a fihletse tumellano e akaretsang ea hore libetsa tsa nyutlelie ke kotsi e hlakileng le e atametseng ho bohle ba nang le tsona le lefats'e lohle.² Joalokaha Ronald Reagan a ne a tloaetse ho re ho George Shultz: “Ke’ng ​​e monate hakaale ka lefatše le ka phatlohang ka metsotso e 30?”³ Ka hona, sohle seo re se hlokang hona joale ke tlhōlo ea ho qetela ea ho fetola tšehetso ea sechaba e se e pharaletse bakeng sa ho felisoa⁴ mehatong e ka etsoang. Le hoja United States e le bothata, hang ha United States le Russia le Chaena li lumellana ho felisa, ba bang kaofela (esita le Iseraele le Fora) ba tla latela.
2. Mekhoa ea Lefatše ea ho Rarolla Likhohlano: WPTL e ne e tla theha tsamaiso ea likarolo tse ’nè ea ho rarolla liqabang lefatšeng ka bophara—puisano e tlamang, ho kena lipakeng ho tlamang, ho tlama ho ahlola, le ho ahlola ho tlamang—likhohlanong leha e le life pakeng tsa linaha. Ho ipapisitsoe le phihlelo ea makhotla a lehae, hoo e ka bang 90% ea "linyeoe" tsohle li ne li tla rarolloa ka lipuisano le ho kena lipakeng, 'me e' ngoe ea 90% e ile ea rarolloa ka mor'a ho qabana, ho siea karolo e nyenyane bakeng sa kahlolo e tlamang. Khanyetso e kholo e hlahisitsoeng ho theosa le lilemo (haholo-holo ke li-neo-cons) ho matla a tlamang Lekhotleng la Machaba la Toka e bile hore Masoviet a ke ke a lumellana le eona. Ha e le hantle, 'nete ke hore Masoviet tlas'a Mikhail Gorbachev o ile a lumellana le eona, ho qala ka 1987.
3. Mekhoa ea ts'ebetso ea machaba: Litsebi tse ngata tsa molao tsa machaba li bontšitse hore ho feta 95% ea linyeoe, matla a maikutlo a sechaba a atlehile ho tiisa hore liqeto tsa makhotla a machaba li lumellana. Taba eo ho lumeloang hore e boima e bile karolo eo sesole sa machaba sa khotso se ka e bapalang ho phethahatsa ts'ebetsong, bothata ba ts'ebetso leha e le efe e joalo e le matla a veto ho Lekhotla la Tšireletso la Machaba a Kopaneng. Empa litharollo tse fapaneng tse ka bang teng bothateng bona li ka rarolloa (mohlala, tsamaiso e kopaneng ea ho vouta/ba bangata haholo), ka mokhoa o tšoanang le oo Molao oa Tumellano ea Leoatle o neng o qapa makhotla a ahlolang a seng tlas'a veto ea P-5.  

Qetello. WPTL ke tlhahiso e bohareng ba tsela e seng "e nyenyane haholo" (leano la rona la hona joale la "ho se sireletsehe ha sehlopha") kapa "haholo" ('muso oa lefatše kapa muso oa lefatše kapa puso ea lefatše). Ke khopolo e hlokomolohiloeng ka mokhoa o makatsang lilemong tse mashome a mahlano tse fetileng⁵ e lokelang ho hlahlojoa hape ke ba boholong pusong, lithuto tsa sechaba le sechaba.  

o re:

1. Ka kopo, ngolla sengoli ho jamestranney@post.harvard.edu bakeng sa PDF 20% theolelo flyer. Ho tsoa litlhahlobong: "ho kenya letsoho, ho phela, le ho ithabisa," "ho hlakile ka mokhoa o hlakileng, ho fumaneha habonolo ebile ho bonolo," le "e tla khothaletsa ba bonang lipono le ho sokolla babelaeli").
2. Har'a makholo a masole le bo-ralipolotiki ba 'nileng ba tšehetsa ho felisoa: Admiral Noel Gaylor, Admiral Eugene Carroll, General Lee Butler, General Andrew Goodpaster, General Charles Horner, George Kennan, Melvin Laird, Robert McNamara, Colin Powell le George HW Bush. Cf. Philip Taubman, Balekane: Bahlabani ba Bahlano ba Cold le Takatso ea Bona ea ho Thibela Bomo, ho 12 (2012). Joalo ka ha Joseph Cirincione a sa tsoa qapa, ho felisoa ke maikutlo a ratoang "kae kapa kae ... ntle le ho DC" kopanong ea rona.
3. Puisano le Susan Schendel, mothusi ho George Shultz (May 8, 2011) (ho khutlisetsa seo George Shultz a se boletseng).
4. Likhetho li bonts'a hoo e ka bang 80% ea sechaba sa Amerika se ratang ho felisoa. Sheba http://www.icanw.org/polls.
5. Sheba John E. Noyes, “William Howard Taft le Taft Arbitration Treaties,” 56 Vill. L. Rev. 535, 552 (2011)(“maikutlo a hore lipuisano tsa machaba kapa lekhotla la machaba le ka tiisetsa ho rarolloa ka khotso ha likhohlano pakeng tsa linaha tse loantšanang li nyametse haholo.”) le Mark Mazower, Busang Lefatše: The History of an Idea. , ho 83-93 (2012) (tlhahiso ea machaba ea phehisano "e lutse moriting" ka mor'a ts'ebetso e ngata ho elella bofelong ba 19th Le 20 ea peleth makholo a lilemo).