By Ramesh Thakur
'Mulungu adalenga nkhondo kotero kuti Achimerika angaphunzire geography' (1)
Pa 3 Oktoba, atatenga njira ina panjira yopita ku nkhondo yatsopano yozizira, Russia inakayikira mgwirizano wamagwirizano wa mgwirizanowu wa 16 ndi US. Kodi mayiko awiriwa akugona pankhondo yomwe ingathe kudutsa zida za nyukiliya - kukumbukira kuti ogonawo sakudziwa nthawi imeneyo?
Njira imodzi yokha yopita kulowerera mu nkhondo Zingakhale zochitika pamakoma akukulira mumzinda wa Washington chifukwa cha malo osamukira ku Syria. Mwachidziwitso nthawi zambiri zomwe zimaperekedwa ku Mark Twain zomwe ziri zoyenera kuyenera kukhala zoona, Mulungu amanenedwa kuti apanga nkhondo kotero kuti Achimerika angaphunzire geography. Ulamuliro wa Russia-US ukukwera kachiwiri ndipo ukhoza kuwira ngati Hillary Clinton atakhala Pulezidenti, zomwe zikuwoneka ngati zonse.
Kuopseza nkhondo sikungachepetsedwe ndi zida za Russia kapena zofuna za mfumu komanso zambiri kuchokera ku US kuti palibe mphamvu ina iliyonse yomwe imayenera kukhala ndi mphamvu zachuma komanso zankhondo kukana chifuniro cha Washington, kulikonse. Chifukwa chogonjetsa ulamuliro wa US ku Cold War unipolar moment, izi ndi zosasimbika komanso zoopsa kwambiri pamene US primacy ikutsutsana ndi kuwonjezereka kwa chuma, nkhondo ndi diplomatic mphamvu China ndi Russia kubwezeretsa. Kukaniza kwakukulu kwa dziko la United States kwa mafunde osalephereka a mbiriyakale kumatanthauzanso ngozi ku Australia.
Mbiri ya US yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu ndi kufalikira kwa zida za nkhondo
Dziko la US lakhala dziko lofala kwambiri ndi nkhondo. Malingana ndi a Lipoti la Congressional Research Service ya 7 October, US idagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kunja kwa 215 nthawi kuchokera 1798 mpaka 1989, kapena nthawi 1.1 pachaka. Kuchokera ku 1991 kufika ku 2015 - kuyambira nthawi ya kutha kwa Cold War - yakhala ikuyendetsa ntchito kunja kwa maiko a 160, pafupipafupi chaka chilichonse cha 6.4. Izi zikhoza kufotokoza chifukwa chake 2013 Chisankho cha WIN / Gallup Malingaliro m'mayiko a 65 adapeza kuti dziko lapansi liwopseza kwambiri mtendere padziko lonse lapansi, amakhulupirira kuti ndi US (24%), kenako ndi Pakistan, China, North Korea, Israel ndi Iran (pakati pa 5-8% iliyonse).
Ndiyetu ndikuyang'ana mapu a dziko lapansi ndikuganizira za chiwerengero cha mabungwe achimuna a US ndi maiko ena kunja kwa dziko lawo, poyerekeza ndi kayendetsedwe ka asilikali a ku Russia ndi ku China (kuphatikizapo ntchito za mtendere za UN). Gulu la nkhondo la US linakhazikitsidwa mwakhama m'mabwalo apadziko lonse a mabungwe ambiri omwe amafalikira kudutsa mayiko makumi anayi. Nambala yeniyeni sivuta kuti mudziwe. Mu 2010 the Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo inanena chiwerengero cha mabungwe a asilikali a US 662 m'mayiko a 38. Malinga ndi wolemba nkhani wofufuza Nick Turse, chiwerengerochi chimasiyanasiyana ndi 460 mpaka 1,000.
Ukraine
Ziwonetsero A ndi B pa mlandu wa Russia ndizovutitsa ku Ukraine ndi mabomba ku Syria. Pa nkhani ya nkhondo ya 1982 ya Argentina kuzilumba za Falkland, yemwe anali mlembi wa boma la United States Henry Kissinger anachenjezedwa kuti palibe mphamvu yayikulu yobwerera kwamuyaya. Ndondomeko zankhanza zaku US ku Russia kuyambira zaka za m'ma 1990 zanyalanyaza mndandanda wofunikira kwambiri wamaubale.
Zokambirana za zomwe Graham Alison amazitcha Thucydides msampha yakhala yodabwitsa mu ndondomeko yachilendo yachilendo. Ichi ndi chikumbutso chodziletsa kuti pazifukwa khumi ndi zisanu ndi chimodzi za mphamvu zamasinthidwe m'zaka zapitazo za 500, khumi ndi ziwiri zinayambitsa nkhondo. Nkhaniyi yokhudza China.
Akatswiri ambiri amaiwala kuti momwe Cold War inatha mu 1989-90. Soviet Union, yomwe idakalibe mphamvu zothetsera nyukiliya koma ikanaleka kukhalapo mu December 1991, sinavomereze kuti yapambana, ndipo Pulezidenti George HW Bush anali osamala kuti asanene kuti apambana. Ena sanalekerere.
Monga dziko lolowa m'malo, dziko la Russia linagwirizana ndi dongosolo latsopano la dziko lapansi ndipo linagwirizana kuti ligwirizane ndi West kuti athandize kukhazikitsa Cold War Europe. Kuyambira nthawi imeneyo kumadzulo kwa dziko lapansi kudana ndi Russia kunyozedwa ndi kudzikuza. Kuwonjezeka kwakummawa kwa NATO kumadera ena omwe kale anali Soviet Union Anaphwanya malonjezo a US zomwe zinapangidwa ku Malta mothandizidwa ndi asilikali a Soviet ochokera kum'mawa kwa Ulaya, ku Moscow, analola kuti dziko la Germany ligwirizanenso ndipo analandira mgwirizanowu ku Germany kuti akhale membala wa NATO.
Kumadzulo kwa Africa kunadula mphuno ya Russia mobwerezabwereza mu dothi la kuwonongedwa kwake kwa Cold War, kudana ndi zofuna zake ndi madandaulo. Russia inalandidwa ndi oligarchs yomwe inadalitsidwa ndi a US crony capitalists, mamiliyoni a anthu a mitundu ya Russia adasiyidwa ndi kukhala m'gulu lachiwiri m'mayiko omwe kale anali Soviet, ndipo mau a Russian, voti ndi zofunikirako zinasokonezedwa mobwerezabwereza.
Ku Ukraine ku 2014 kumadzulo kumadzulo kumadzulo kumadzulo kumadzulo, kumadzulo kumadzulo kwa dziko la West, anthu ambiri adagonjetsa mtsogoleri wa dziko la Russia ndipo adakhazikitsa boma la Western. Komabe a Kumadzulo adawoneka akudabwa kuti dziko la Russia lodandaula linanyamula chidandaulo ndikuchita ngati mphamvu yayikulu pamene panagwirizanitsidwa m'munda wake wam'mbuyo. Zinali kubwezera nthawi. Mzinda wa Moscow unayankha mizere yomwe idakalipo yomwe inapereka mbiri ndi geopolitics m'deralo ndikukambanso Crimea, Kumadzulo, pokhala mpira wautete ndikutaya, idaponyera.
Pulezidenti onse Vladimir Putin ndi Mtumiki Wachilendo Sergei Lavrov anafulumira kukumbukira zochita za NATO pothandiza Kosovo ku Serbia ku 1999. Sizovuta kuti tiganizire zomwe zimachitika ku United States kuti zikhale zofanana ndi China - kapena ku Russia, zomwe zinayambitsanso kusagwirizana, ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa ma anti-American regimes, ku Canada ndi Mexico. Mphamvu zonse zazikuluzikulu, zomwe zikuphatikizidwa ku US, zimakhala ndi zofuna zapamwamba ndikutsatira ndondomeko zadziko lachikhalidwe osati zachikhalidwe.
Syria
Asilikali a azungu adalowerera mu nkhondo ya Syria, popanda chilolezo cha boma lake, ndi zida zotsutsana ndi boma komanso zigawenga zotsutsana ndi Islamic State (IS) zomwe zikuyimira mkati mwa Syria. Maimelo a Clinton othamangitsidwa amatsimikizira zimenezo Ogwirizana a US ku Saudi Arabia ndi Turkey adalandira ndalama za IS ndipo Obama akuyang'anira izi. Kupita kwa Russia ku Syria komwe anapempha ndi kuthandizira boma la Assad - nkhondo yake yoyamba kuchokera ku 1989 kunja kwa malire a dziko lomwe kale linali Soviet Union - linasonyeza kuti dziko la Moscow linachoka ku Russia kuchokera ku mayiko a West Cold nkhondo omwe anapangidwa ndi West Russia. Moscow siinakonzedwenso, akumaliza Dmitri Trenin, 'kugonjera zikhalidwe ndi machitidwe omwe akhazikitsidwa, apolisi, ndikuweruzidwa ndi West'. Kazembe waku Russia ku UK wayankha pazodzudzulidwa ndi azungu ponena kuti kulowererapo kwa Moscow kunali 'anapulumutsa Siriya ku chigawenga'pamene Washington adalephera kulekanitsa anthu osiyana ndi a Assad opanduka kuchokera ku jihadist.
'Mulungu adalenga nkhondo kotero kuti Achimerika angaphunzire geography' (2)
China
Kuzunzidwa kwa Russia kuyambira kumapeto kwa Cold War ku Ulaya kunachokera ku US osakonzekeretsa kuthana ndi kuwonjezeka kwa China ku Pacific. Zakale, Washington sinachitire dziko lina mofanana kapena lakumana ndi mphamvu zamitundu yambiri, yopambana komanso yowonjezereka monga China. Pamene China ikudza monga mphamvu yayikulu, chiyeso chosagonjetsedwa cha US sichikhalitsa. China wakhala mphamvu yamakono koma tsopano zokhumba ndi zochitika za m'nyanja zikukula. Kuwongolera kwake kwa nthawi yayitali ndi mpweya ndi mphamvu zowonetsera mphamvu zam'madzi zimakhala zoopsya ku nthawi ya kukhazikika kwa dera lomwe lalembedwa ndi US primacy. Mphepete mwa nyanja yamadzi ya buluu komanso maulendo aatali angapangenso Australia ku asilikali a China.
Maso a ku China Australia akuwoneka kuti akugwirizana nawo ku US mu njira yowonjezera, monga momwe ziwonetsedwera ndi mafotokozedwe a anthu onse m'mipingo ikuluikulu, US pivot ku Asia, chigamulo chokhazikitsa amphepete mwa amadzi a ku US ku Darwin ndi kumanga za zida zankhondo. Zomwe Achimereka amasonyeza kuti 'kugwirizanitsa' zingathe kuwerengedwa ngati 'kusamvana' ndi Chitchaina omwe adzayankhe molondola.
Utsogoleri wa Clinton ndi bukhu la Washington
Malingana ndi otsutsa, motsogoleredwa ndi magulu a zankhondo a US ku malo ambiri kuposa momwe ayenera kukhalira, dziko limapanga zida zambiri kuposa momwe likufunira, ndipo limagulitsa zida zambiri kuposa nzeru. Wakhala akuchita nkhondo yowoneka yosatha kuyambira 2001 ndi nthawi zonse mabomba ambiri mayiko nthawi imodzi. Mlembi wa ku United States amene wapuma pantchito akugwirizanitsa chiwerengero pakati pa kuchuluka kwa chiwawa kunyumba komanso nthawi zambiri kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kunja kwa dziko: 'ndife mtundu wakupha, kunyumba ndi kunja'.
Pamene Achimereka akuwona kuti chikhalidwe chawo chimachokera ku chikhalidwe chonse, ena ambiri amazindikira kuti ndizochokera m'madzi odzikuza. Monga momwe dziko lonse lapansi likuyendera, anthu a ku America agwera mumsampha wododometsa kulikonse ndi kulikonse osati chifukwa chotsatira kapena cholinga chogwirizanitsa, koma chifukwa choti angathe, osasamala komanso osayang'ana kuti akuwopsyeza kapena kukhumudwitsa ena .
Ngakhale Pulezidenti Barack Obama adadandaula kuti malamulo osokonekera a Washington kunja kwa dziko lapansi 'playbook'ndi mayankho amtundu wankhanza ku mavuto amitundu yachilendo. Clinton ndi gawo lalikulu la mgwirizanowu wa bungwe la Washington. Monga mlembi wa boma, iye anali wokhomphana kwambiri ndi Obama kuposa Obama kotero n'zosadabwitsa kuti mndandanda wautali wa a neocons apamwamba adalonjeza kumuvotera osati Donald Trump. Pakhala pali nkhawa zina malingaliro Wofunsira yekha wa National Security Adviser kapena Mlembi wa boma ku Clinton administration adzakhala Victoria Nuland, munthu yemwe akuyang'anira Ukraine malamulo mu Dipatimenti ya boma la United States amene adanena mwadzidzidzi kwa ambassador wa ku Kiev ku Kiev 'F..k EU'mukulankhulana kwa foni mu February 2014. Anali mtsogoleri wa chipani cha a Pulezidenti wa Dick Cheney ku Bush Bush ndipo anakwatiwa ndi Robert Kagan, yemwe anali katswiri wodziwa zachangu.
Chodabwitsa, Clinton wapanga chisokonezo pa ntchitoyi podzudzula nkhaŵa chifukwa cha chala cha Trump chosasinthasintha komanso chosasinthasintha pa chombo cha nyukiliya. Mmene Clinton adayankhira pa maulendo a maimelo omwe adawonongedwa ndi WikiLeaks akhala akulepheretsa chidwi ku machimo ake kuti asamveke kuti Russia salowerera mu chisankho cha ku America (chimene Washington sichikanatha kulikonse) komanso kuti awononge Putin, motero kukulitsa US -Kuda nkhawa kwa Russia kulibe. Lingaliro labwino ndiloti atapatsidwa ndondomeko yake ndi zochitika zambiri, pomwe Clinton atakwaniritsa udindo wake wa pulezidenti iye adzakweza pamwamba pa zolephera zake ndikuwonetsa wanzeru wadziko lonse wanzeru.
Zotsatira za Australia
Mgwirizanowu wa Australia ndi US ukupitiriza kukhazikitsa lamulo la China ndipo mzere wake wovuta womwe wapangika motsutsana ndi Russia wapangidwa ndi vuto la ndege. Malaysian Airlines ndege MH17 anawombera pansi pa 17 July 2014 pafupi ndi Donetsk ku Ukraine, akupha anthu onse a 298 ndi anthu ogwira ntchito, kuphatikizapo australia angapo. Zomwe boma linanena motsutsana ndi Moscow chifukwa cha chigamulochi chinkachitika bwino mu ndale zaku Australia. Koma kutayika kwa MH17 sikunali koyamba kwa ndege ya asilikali yomwe ikuwomberedwa. Chinthu chodziwika bwino chimene asilikali a US anali nacho makamaka (mosiyana ndi MH17, kumene asilikali a ku Russia akunenedwa kuti ndi operewera kuti apereke opandukawo omwe anali kuwombera ndi zida zakupha) ndi kuwombera ndi USS Vincennes ya Iran Air ndege 655 pa 3 July 1988 pamene idakwera ulendo wamtunda tsiku ndi tsiku kuchokera ku Tehran kupita ku Dubai. Woyendetsa sitimayo anali kapena kudzudzula kapena kulangidwa koma adapereka ndondomeko.
Mbiri ya amnesia ingathe kufotokozeranso ndondomeko ya malamulo a US ku Russia. Amereka apatsidwa utsogoleri wadziko lonse kwazaka makumi angapo pambuyo pa nkhondo yachiwiri yapadziko lonse ndipo adakhazikitsa ufulu wadziko lonse womwe tikukhala lero. Dziko liri bwino chifukwa cha momwe Cold War inamenyedwera ndipo mbali ina inapambana; Dziko la lero likanakhala nkhalango yovuta kwambiri ku mayiko onse. Izi zidati, kupambana kunabweretsa chigonjetso ndi chikhulupiliro cha mdziko la America komwe malamulo a mayiko ndi mayiko onse amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwa ena okha. US miyezo iwiri ikulumikiza kudutsa patsogolo mu zochitika za mdziko.
Potsutsana ndi zikuluzikuluzikuluzikulu za dzikoli, azandale komanso akuluakulu apamwamba a ku America adakula kuti awononge Russia ngati wogonjetsedwa, ndiye kuti mphamvu zake zatha. Otsutsa ambiri amatsutsana ndi zomwe akudziwa ndikudziwa mmene maiko a Moscow anagonjetsera mwamtendere kupyolera mu mavuto a Cold War ndi mavuto omwe adawonetsa chisoni chifukwa cha kutaya makalata koma sakuwoneka kuti alibe pakati pa otsogolera pankhaniyi.
Atayendetsedwa ndi a US, West adadzudzula ufulu wokhala ndi chilolezo chovomerezeka kwa iwo eni komanso kwa ena. Pamene dzikoli likumka kumadzulo kwa dzuwa kumadzulo kumataya kulemba ndi kulemba malamulo apadziko lonse, komabe nthawi zina zimakhala ngati kukana kutayika kwa mphamvu zopanda malire. Kuopsa kwa nkhondo yosafuna ndi yoonongeka ikuphatikizapo kulimbikira kwa kupitirizabe kwa US kupambana ndi kudzikhulupilira mu mphamvu za Kumadzulo, ndi kumenyana ndi Russia ndi China.
Pa chitukuko chofanana, kumene kale mgwirizano wa US Australia unatitsimikizira chitetezo chathu, lero zikhoza kuchulukitsa mantha ku chitetezo chathu. Izi sizikutanthauza kuti Australia iyenera kuthetsa mgwirizano wake. Izi zikutanthawuza kuti Australiya iyenera kukhala kunja kwa psychology ya kudalira kasitomala ndikusankha pa nkhani za nkhondo ndi mtendere kumadera osiyanasiyana kudzera muzochita zozizwitsa. Chitsanzo cha Canada chakumenyana ndi nkhondo ya Iraq chikusonyeza kuti chilichonse chimene chimayambitsa chiyanjano ndi Washington chidzakhala chochepa komanso chaching'ono.
Nkhani yopezeka pa: http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?p=8138
