Daga Jonathan Marshall, consortiumnews.com.
Kasa da makonni biyu kan karagar mulki, Shugaba Trump na fuskantar daya daga cikin manyan gwaje-gwaje na farko na manufofinsa na rashin jituwa da Rasha. Yayin da wani sabon fada ya barke a Gabashin Ukraine, ana hasashen gwamnatin Kiev da magoya bayanta na Amurka na neman yin fito na fito da Vladimir Putin.
Shugaban kasar Ukraine Petro Poroshenko ya gana da sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka John Kerry yayin da ya isa birnin Kiev na kasar Ukraine a ranar 7 ga watan Yuli, 2016. (Hoton Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka)
Bayanan farko sun nuna, duk da haka, cewa sabon tashin hankali a cikin wannan rikici na kusan shekaru uku ya haifar da Kiev, mai yiwuwa a cikin bege na tilasta irin wannan arangama tsakanin Washington da Moscow. Hakan dai na neman sake komawa wani mummunan yanayi da gwamnatin Jojiya ta ja a shekara ta 2008, wanda ya janyo arangama da Rasha tare da fatan gwamnatin George W. Bush ta kawo daukin gaggawar shigar da Jojiya cikin kawancen NATO.
Bayan da aka shafe watanni ana shiru, fada a Ukraine ya barke ranar 28 ga watan Janairu a kusa da birnin Avdiivka, cibiyar masana'antu da ta lalace. takwasmayaka masu goyon bayan gwamnati da biyar Ga dukkan alamu dai 'yan awaren sun mutu a cikin kwanaki biyun farko na tashin hankalin. A halin da ake ciki, mazauna birnin na kokawa kan yadda za su tsira daga munanan hare-hare da kuma yanayin da ba su da zafi.
Masu sukar Rasha na shekara da shekaru sun yi gaggawar zargin Moscow da sake zubar da jini. "Muna kira ga Rasha da ta dakatar da tashin hankalin (kuma), mutunta yarjejeniyar tsagaita bude wuta," ayyana wani jami'in ma'aikatar harkokin waje.
The Washington Post's amintacce neo-conservative shafin edita shawara cewa Rasha ta ji 'yanci ta harba makaman roka da manyan bindigogi bayan da Putin ya tattauna da Trump ta wayar tarho, da nufin lalata ganawar da shugaban Ukraine Petro Poroshenko ya yi da shugabar gwamnatin Jamus Angela Merkel.
Rikicin na Rasha “ya yi kama da gwajin ko sabon shugaban zai jure wa matsin lamba daga Moscow,” in ji Post, kamar dai wannan shine Czechoslovakia, 1938, gabaɗaya.
Poroshenko ya yi sauri ya ci moriyar karawar ta tambayar, rhetorically, "Wa zai yi magana game da ɗage takunkumi a irin wannan yanayi?" A watan da ya gabata ne ministan harkokin wajen Austria kira don sassauta takunkumin da aka sanyawa Rasha a matsayin "duk wani ci gaba mai kyau" a Ukraine. Shugaba Trump ya kasance rashin biyayya game da takunkuman da aka kakaba mata ta fuskar bukatu mai cike da bukatu na 'yan majalisar wakilai a bangarorin biyu na su ci gaba da kasancewa a wurin.
Wa ke da laifi?
Har yanzu dai alkalan kotun sun ce su waye suka tayar da tashin hankali na baya-bayan nan, amma Rediyon Free Europe/Radio Liberty, wanda gwamnatin Amurka ta kafa don yada farfaganda a lokacin yakin cacar baka. ruwaito Litinin:
Alamun Nazi a kan bindigogi da 'yan kungiyar Azov ta Ukraine ke dauka. (Kamar yadda fim din 'yan wasan kwaikwayo na Norwegian ya kaddamar da shi kuma ya nuna a talabijin Jamus)
"A cikin takaici da takun saka a cikin wannan yakin na tsawon watanni 33, na nuna damuwa cewa goyon bayan kasashen yamma na raguwa, da kuma fahimtar cewa shugaban Amurka Donald Trump na iya yanke Kyiv daga duk wata tattaunawar zaman lafiya yayin da yake ƙoƙarin inganta dangantakar da ke tsakaninta da Moscow, sojojin Ukraine sun damu da su. nuna sabon ƙarfin da suka samu ya ci gaba a kan abin da mutane da yawa a nan suke kira da 'mai ratsa jiki.'
“Masu lura da al’amura sun ce da alama mutanen Ukrain suna ƙoƙarin ƙirƙirar sabbin abubuwa a ƙasa . . . A yin haka, sojojin da ke goyon bayan Kyiv sun haifar da kazamin fada da abokan gabansu, wanda aka bayar da rahoton cewa sun ci gaba da kansu - ko kuma suka yi kokarin - a cikin 'yan makonnin nan."
Wani babban mamba a tawagar sa ido na musamman na Turai a Ukraine ya yi gargadin, "Sakamakon ci gaba kai tsaye yana tabarbarewa cikin tashin hankali, wanda galibi yakan koma tashin hankali." Yaya daidai yake.
Yana da wuya a ga abin da Putin ke samu daga sabon fada, a daidai lokacin da Trump ke fuskantar dakaru masu shakku a gida kan dabarunsa na tafiya cikin sauki kan Rasha. A daya hannun kuma, Poroshenko yana da duk abin da zai samu, ta hanyar matsawa Amurkawa da yammacin Turai lamba don jaddada goyon bayansu ga gwamnatinsa, wacce ta karbi mulki bayan juyin mulki a shekara ta 2014, wanda ya hambarar da zababben shugaban kasar Viktor Yanukovych, wanda ke samun goyon baya sosai a gabashin Ukraine da Crimea.
Jojiya Playbook
Lamarin dai ya yi kama da rikicin da aka yi a watan Agustan 2008 tsakanin Rasha da makwabciyarta a kan tekun Black Sea, Georgia. Rikicin da ya yi sanadiyar zubar da jini tsakanin sojojin kasashen biyu a karamar hukumar Kudancin Ossetia ya haifar da fashewar kalaman tsageru daga barayin Amurka.
Mataimakin shugaban kasa Dick Cheney yana magana a gaban Tsohon Sojoji na Yakin Kasashen Waje a ranar 26 ga Agusta, 2002. [Madogararsa: Fadar White House]
Mataimakin shugaban kasar Richard Cheney ya ce, "Ba dole ba ne a mayar da martani ga cin zarafi na Rasha." Richard Holbrooke, wanda zai zama babban mai ba da shawara ga Shugaba Obama na gaba, ya ce, "Halayyar Moscow na haifar da kalubale kai tsaye ga tsarin Turai da na duniya."
Watakila yana da mahimmanci cewa mai ba da shawara ga shugaban kasar Amurka mai karbar albashin shugaban kasar Jojiya, shi ma dan takarar shugaban kasa John McCain ne mai ba da shawara kan harkokin kasashen waje. A matsayin manazarci daya sharhi A lokacin, "Marsawar McCain da sauri da kuma tashin hankali game da ayyukan Soviet a Jojiya ya ƙarfafa matsayinsa mai ban tsoro tare da hannun dama na Jam'iyyar Republican. . . . Tun lokacin da rikicin ya barke, McCain ya mai da hankali kamar Laser akan Georgia, don yin tasiri sosai. A cewar wata kuri’ar jin ra’ayin jama’a ta jami’ar Quinnipiac da aka fitar a ranar 19 ga watan Agusta ya samu maki hudu akan Obama tun bayan zabensu na karshe a tsakiyar watan Yuli kuma ya jagoranci abokin hamayyarsa da tazara biyu zuwa daya a matsayin dan takarar da ya fi cancanta da Rasha.”
Amma duk da haka lokacin da hayaƙin ya lafa, sai ya zamana cewa Jojiya, ba Rasha ba ce ta fara yaƙin ta hanyar harba makami mai linzami kan babban birnin Ossetia ta Kudu. Wata dabara ce da shugaban kasar Jojiya Mikheil Saakashvili ya yi na jawo kasashen Yamma su goyi bayan yakin neman zabensa na karbe yankin.
Kungiyar Crisis International mai zaman kanta ta yi gargadi a cikin 2007 cewa dabarun haɗari na Jojiya na tsokanar "abubuwan tsaro akai-akai na iya rikidewa zuwa tashin hankali."
Bayan shekara guda, bayan ɗan gajeren yaƙin da Rasha, binciken ICG ruwaito bisa ga ikon cewa ya fara ne da “mummunan kuskure daga shugabancin Jojiya,” wanda “ya kaddamar da wani gagarumin farmaki na soji” a cikin yankin da Rasha ta mamaye, inda ya kashe fararen hula da dama tare da haddasa mummunar barna ga babban birnin Kudancin Ossetia daga barasa.
Rahoton ya kuma soki "Harin da Rasha ta kai ba daidai ba," wanda ya dauki matakin mayar da martani ga "tsawon shekaru goma na fadada gabas na kawancen NATO" da kuma wasu korafe-korafe.
A ajiye zargi a gefe, rahoton ICG ya lura cewa "Rikicin Rasha da Georgia ya canza yanayin yanayin siyasa na zamani, tare da babban sakamako ga zaman lafiya da tsaro a Turai da ma bayanta." Tabbas, ya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan koma baya a dangantakar da ke tsakanin Moscow da Yammacin Turai har zuwa rikicin 2014 na Ukraine.
Idan rikicin 2017 na Ukraine ya fita daga hannun, sakamakon zaman lafiya da tsaro na iya zama babba ko babba. Zai zama mai ba da labari don ganin ko Shugaba Trump da tawagarsa ta tsaron kasar sun sami sahihin gaskiya kafin su bayyana wa masu shiga tsakani da ke son ganin dangantakar Amurka da Rasha ta kasance cikin tsamin gaske da kuma rashin jituwa.
Jonathan Marshall shine marubucin labarai da yawa na baya-bayan nan kan batutuwan makamai, gami da "Yadda Yaƙin Duniya Na Uku Zai Fara," "Tashin hankali na NATO Anti-Rasha Motsa jiki," "Haɓaka a cikin Sabon Yaƙin Yakin," "Ticking Kusa da Tsakar dare," da "Makaman Nukiliya na Turkiyya: Jimlar Duk Tsoro. "
