The Coming Drone Blowback

In ji John Feffer, Counterpunch

Wannan kisan da aka yi wa shugaban kungiyar Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour a karshen makon da ya gabata ba wani yajin aiki ba ne.

Da farko dai, ya kasance Sojojin Amurka ne suka gudanar da shi, ba CIA ba, wacce ta jagoranci kusan duk wata jirage marassa matuka a Pakistan.

Na biyu, ba ya faruwa a Afghanistan ko a yankin da ake kira yanki mara bin doka da oda wanda aka fi sani da Yankunan Tarayya da Aka Gudanar da shi, ko FATA. Makami mai linzami ya juya a fararen Toyota da fasinjojinsa guda biyu cikin babbar hanyar titi da ke Balochistan, kudu maso yammacin Pakistan.

Kafin wannan harin na musamman, Pakistan ta baiwa Amurka damar yin sintiri a sararin samaniya a yankin arewa maso yamma na FATA, wani yanki mai karfi na kungiyar Taliban. Amma Shugaba Obama ya yanke shawarar ƙetare wannan 'jan layi' don fitar da Mansour (da direban taxi, Muhammad Azam, wanda yake da masifa ya kasance tare da fasinja ba daidai ba a lokacin da bai dace ba).

Shugabannin Pakistan din sun yi rijista da rashin yardarsu. A cewar tsohon jakadan Amurka Sherry Rehman, "Yajin aikin drone ya banbanta da sauran baki daya saboda ba wai kawai ya sake dawo da wani nau'in ayyukan jin kai ne kawai ba, har ma da doka da kuma fadada a fannin wasan kwaikwayon da aka yi niyya."

A takaice dai, idan Amurka ta aika da jiragen leken asiri bayan kai hari a Balochistan, me zai hana ta fitar da wanda ake zargi da ta’addanci a kan titunan cike cunkoson Karachi ko Islamabad?

Gwamnatin Obama tana taya kanta murnar cire wani mummunan mutum da ya yi niyya ga sojojin Amurka a Afghanistan. Amma yajin aikin da kansa ba zai iya samar da wani babban yarda a bangaren Taliban na shiga tattaunawa da gwamnatin Afghanistan ba. Mansour, a cewar gwamnatin, ya yi adawa da irin wannan tattaunawar, kuma hakika kungiyar Taliban tana da ya ki shiga tattaunawa a Pakistan tare da kungiyar Kwantar da Adadin Yanayi - Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Amurka - sai dai idan an cire sojojin kasashen waje daga Afghanistan.

Wannan “kisan don zaman lafiya” dabarun gwamnatin Obama na iya yin tasiri.

A cewar manyan shugabannin kungiyar Taliban, Mutuwar Mansour zai taimaka wa rukunin mai rikice-rikicen haɗin kan sabon shugaban. Bugu da kari, duk da irin wannan tsinkayen mai hangen nesa, kungiyar ta Taliban za ta iya rarrabuwar kawuna da baiwa kungiyoyin kungiyoyi masu tsattsauran ra'ayi kamar Al-Qaeda da kuma Islamic State don cike gatanan. A yanayi na uku, yajin aikin ba zai yi tasiri a ƙasa a Afghanistan ko kaɗan ba, tunda lokacin fada yanzu tuni aka fara tattaunawa kuma kungiyar Taliban na son karfafa matsayinsu na sasantawa kafin shiga tattaunawa.

A takaice dai, Amurka ba ta iya sanin ko mutuwar Massoud za ta ci gaba ko kuma ta kawo cikas ga manufofin dabarun Amurka a yankin. Yajin aiki na drone shi ne, m, aiki ne.

Yajin aikin ya kuma zo ne a daidai lokacin da manufofin matukan Amurka ke zuwa karkashin sanya ido sosai a cikin Amurka. Bayan kimantawa daban-daban na wadanda suka rasa rayukansu, gwamnatin Obama ba da jimawa ba za ta sake shi nasa kimanta adadin waɗanda aka kashe don masu gwagwarmaya da wadanda ba na yaƙi da su a waje da wuraren yaƙi ba. Wani sabon bincike mai zaman kansa game da yajin aikin drone a cikin FATA ya bayar da hujjar cewa "bugowar" da aka dade ana jira ba ta gudana ba. Kuma gwamnatin Obama tana matukar bakin kokarin ta don ganin ta kawar da wata manufa a Afghanistan wacce ta gaza samar da matakan sojan Amurka kamar yadda aka yi alkawarinta, da cikakken daukar nauyin ayyukan soji ga gwamnatin Afghanistan, ko kuma dakatar da kungiyar Taliban daga samun nasarorin filin daga.

Mutuwar Massoud ita ce mafi kyawun misalin Amurka da ke nuna mutuwa a wani nesa a wani yunƙuri na rage tashe-tashen hankula da ke daɗewa tun lokacin da aka daina kulawa da ita. Tabbatar da yajin aikin ya hana karkatar da manufar Amurka da kuma rashin yiwuwar cimma burin Amurka kamar yadda aka fada a halin yanzu.

Tambayar Blowback

Kalmar "busawa" asali asali kalmar CIA ce don wanda ba a tsammani ba - kuma mara kyau - sakamakon ayyukan ɓarna. Ofaya daga cikin shahararrun misalai shine ɓarkewar makamai Amurka da kayan taimako ga mujahedeen da ke yaƙar Soviets a Afghanistan. Wasu daga cikin wadannan mayaka, ciki har da Osama bin Laden, daga karshe zasu juya makamansu a kan manufofin Amurka da zarar Sojojin sun fice daga kasar.

Yakin jirgin saman Amurka ba daidai bane aiki, kodayake CIA ta ki amincewa da rawar da ta taka a hare-haren (Pentagon ta kasance a bayyane game da amfani da jirage marasa matuka wajen kai hari kan wasu manyan sojoji). Amma masu sukar harin na drone - ni kaina sun hada da - sun dade suna jayayya cewa duk fararen hula da ke fama da hare-haren jiragen sama ba su haifar da matsala ba. Yajin aikin Drone da fushin da suke haifar da inganci suna daukar mutane zuwa cikin kungiyar Taliban da sauran kungiyoyin masu tsattsauran ra'ayi.

Hatta wadanda ke da hannu a shirin sun zo daidai da mahangar.

Misali, la’akari da wannan roko na rashin tausayi ga Shugaba Obama daga tsoffin mayaƙan Sojin Sama huɗu waɗanda suka yi jigilar jirage marasa matuka. "Rashin fararen hula da muke kashewa suna kara ruruta wutar kiyayya wacce ta sanya ta'addanci da kungiyoyi kamar ISIS, yayin da kuma suke a matsayin kayan aikin daukar ma'aikata," suka yi jayayya a wata wasika da ta gabata a watan Nuwamban da ya gabata. "Gwamnati da magabatanta sun kirkiro da wani shirin jirage marasa matuka wanda shine daya daga cikin sojojin da ke lalata ta'addanci da fatattaka a duniya."

Amma yanzu haka akwai Aqil Shah, malami a Jami'ar Oklahoma, wanda ke da adalci ya buga wani rahoto yunƙurin yin watsi da wannan da'awar.

Dangane da jerin tambayoyin 147 da ya yi a Arewacin Waziristan, wani yanki a cikin FATA na Pakistan wanda ya ci gaba da yawan adadin drone, kashi 79 na masu amsa sun goyi bayan yakin. Akasarinsu sun yi imanin cewa yajin aikin ba zai kashe wadanda ba na yaƙi ba. Bugu da kari, a cewar kwararrun da Shah ya ambata, “mafi yawancin mazauna yankin sun fi son jiragen sama ne a sansanonin sojin Pakistan da ayyukan iska da ke haifar da mummunan illa ga rayuwar farar hula da dukiyoyinsu.”

Ba na shakkar wannan binciken. Yawancin mutane a Pakistan ba su da tausayin Taliban. A cewar wani zaben Pew na kwanan nan, Kashi 72 na masu ba da amsa a Pakistan suna da mummunan ra'ayi game da Taliban (tare da zaben farko yana mai nuni da cewa wannan rashin tallafin ya wuce zuwa FATA). Babu shakka, jiragen sama marasa kyau sun fi na ayyukan sojan Pakistan, kamar dai suna wakiltar ci gaba ne kan manufofin dunkulewar da Amurka ta yi amfani da su a yakin Vietnam da su lalata manyan bangarorin kudu maso gabashin Asiya.

Binciken Shah ba ainihin kimiyya bane. Ya yarda cewa tambayoyin nasa "ba wakilai ne na lissafi ba" - sannan ya ci gaba da yanke game da yawan mutanen FATA. Hakanan gaskiya ne wasu zabuka da dama bayar da shawarar cewa 'yan Pakistan a duk faɗin ƙasar sun yi adawa da shirin drone kuma sun yi imani da cewa hakan yana ƙarfafa ƙarfin soja, amma waɗannan zaɓe gabaɗaya ba su haɗa da FATA ba.

Amma mafi kyawun mahawara na Shah shine cewa babban matakin goyon baya ga shirin na drone yana nufin cewa ba a sami wani bugi ba. Ko da tambayoyin sa na ilimin kididdiga ne, ban fahimci wannan tsalle ba.

Blowback baya buƙatar adawar duniya. Kadan daga cikin mujahedeen din suka ci gaba da yaki tare da Osama bin Laden. Wasu 'yan' 'Contras' ne kawai ke da hannu a ayyukan da suka tura magunguna zuwa Amurka.

Ba kamar yadda duk yawan mutanen FATA za su shiga cikin kungiyar Taliban ba. Idan samari dubu biyu ne kawai suka shiga cikin kungiyar Taliban saboda fushin su game da hare-haren jiragen sama, wannan yana a matsayin wani koma baya ne. Akwai mutane miliyan 4 da ke zaune a FATA. Fightingarfin gwagwarmaya na mutanen 4,000 shine kashi 1 na yawan jama'a - kuma hakan yana iya sauƙi a cikin kashi 21 na masu amsawa waɗanda ba su yarda da drones ba a cikin binciken Shah.

Kuma yaya game da ɗan kunar bakin waken da ya hau kan hanyar ta'addanci saboda yajin aiki da jirgin sama ya kai ɗan'uwansa? Wani dan jaridar Times Square, Faisal Shahzad, ya kasance motsa aƙalla a wani ɓangaren ta hanyar faɗo marasa amfani a cikin Pakistan, duk da cewa ba su kashe kowa ba a cikin danginsa.

Aƙarshe, busawa na iya zama mutum ɗaya mai fushi da ƙaddara wanda ya ba da alama a tarihin ba tare da fara nuna a cikin binciken ba.

Sauran Matsalar Drone

Batun busawa shi ne kawai ɗaya daga cikin matsalolin da yawa game da manufar jirgin sama ta Amurka.

Masu rajin jirage marasa matuka a ko da yaushe suna jayayya cewa yajin aikin ne ke da alhakin rayukan fararen hula da yawa fiye da fashewar jirgin sama. Shugaba Abin da zan iya fada da tabbaci shi ne, yawan fararen hula da ke aukuwa a duk wani aiki da jiragen sama ya yi ya yi kasa da adadin rayukan fararen hula da ke faruwa a cikin yaƙin na gargajiya. ya ce a watan Afrilu.

Kodayake hakan na iya zama gaskiya ga tayar da bam a cikin kabari, amma ba gaskiya ba ne ga irin yakin da Amurka ta yi a Syria da Afghanistan.

"Tun lokacin da Obama ya shiga ofis, hare-haren jiragen sama na 462 a Pakistan, Yemen, da Somalia sun kashe kimanin fararen hula 289, ko kuma farar hula guda a cikin yajin 1.6," rubuta Mikaiya Zenko da Amelia Mae Wolf a kwanan nan Foreign Policy yanki. A kwatankwacin, yawan fararen hula a Afghanistan tun lokacin da Obama ya hau karagar mulki ya kasance farar hula daya a cikin fashewar bama-bamai na 21. A cikin yaƙin da aka yi da Daular Islama, rarar ta kasance farar hula guda ɗaya bayan fashewar bama-bamai na 72.

To akwai batun dokar kasa da kasa. Kasar Amurka tana gudanar da atisayen ta a waje da wuraren fama. Har ana kashe USan Amurkawa. Kuma ana yin hakan ba tare da bin wani tsari na doka. Shugaban kasan ya rattaba hannu kan umarnin kisan, sannan CIA ta aiwatar da wannan kisan gilla.

Ba abin mamaki bane, Gwamnatin Amurka ta bayar da hujjar cewa yajin aikin na doka ne saboda sun kera maharan a yakin kasa da kasa da 'yan ta'adda. Karkashin wannan ma’anar, Amurka na iya kashe duk wanda ta dauki dan ta’adda a ko ina a duniya. Rahotanni da yawa na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya suna da ya kira yajin aikin ba bisa doka ba. Aƙalla, drones wakiltar a babban kalubale ga dokar kasa da kasa.

To akwai batun rigima game da yajin aiki. Wadannan hare-hare ba su kebe takamaiman mutane ba, amma duk wanda ya yi daidai da bayanan 'yan ta'adda a cikin yankin da ake daukar yankin da ke da arzikin' yan ta'adda. Basu bukatar amincewar shugaban kasa. Wadannan yajin aikin sun haifar da wasu manyan kura-kurai, da suka hada da kisan fararen hula 12 na Yemen a watan Disamba 2013 wanda ya bukaci dala miliyan cikin “kudaden kwantar da tarzoma.” Gwamnatin Obama ba ta nuna alamar ritaya wannan takamaiman dabara.

A ƙarshe, akwai batun yaduwar drone. Amurka ta kasance mallakin sabuwar fasahar ne kawai. Amma ranakun sun shuɗe.

"Kasashe tamanin da shida suna da ikon amfani da drone, tare da 19 ko dai mallaki jiragen sama masu amfani da makamai ko samun fasahar," ya rubuta James Badium. "Aƙalla kasashe shida ban da Amurka sun yi amfani da jirage marasa matuka a yakin, kuma a shekarar 2015, kamfanin ba da shawara kan tsaro Teal Group ya kiyasta cewa samar da jirage zai kai dala biliyan 93 a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa - ya kai sama da sau uku na darajar kasuwar yanzu."

Yanzu haka, Amurka tana gudanar da atisaye ba zato ba tsammani a duk duniya cikin rashin tsaro. Amma idan aka gudanar da yajin aiki na farko a kan Amurka - ko kuma ta kungiyoyin ta'addanci a kan 'yan Amurka a wasu kasashe - to hakika za a fara kai harin.