Ingxenye yesigidi samathani e-methane akhuphuka epayipini elicekeleke phansi le-Nord Stream. Isithombe: Swedish Coast Guard
NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Februwari 22, i-2023
Njengoba impi yase-Ukraine manje isifinyelele umnyaka owodwa ngo-February 24, abaseRussia abakafinyeleli ekunqobeni kwezempi kodwa namazwe aseNtshonalanga awazange afinyelele imigomo yawo emkhakheni wezomnotho. Ngesikhathi iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine, i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo base-Europe bafunga ukuthi bazoyishaya unswinyo oluzoyenza iguqe iRussia futhi iyiphoqe ukuthi ihoxe.
Izijeziso zaseNtshonalanga zizokwakha Ikhethini Lensimbi elisha, elingamakhulu amakhilomitha ukuya empumalanga yaleli elidala, lihlukanise iRussia engayodwa, ehluliwe, ebhuqiwe neNtshonalanga ehlangene, enqobayo nephumelelayo. Akukona nje kuphela ukuthi iRussia imelane nokuhlaselwa komnotho, kodwa unswinyo seluthuthukile—lushaya wona kanye amazwe abawubekile.
Izijeziso zaseNtshonalanga eRussia zinciphise ukunikezwa kukawoyela negesi yemvelo emhlabeni wonke, kodwa futhi zenyusa amanani. Ngakho iRussia yazuza ngezintengo eziphakeme, ngisho nalapho umthamo wayo wokuthekelisa wehla. I-International Monetary Fund (IMF) kubika ukuthi Umnotho waseRussia wehle ngo-2.2% kuphela ngo-2022, uma uqhathaniswa nokuncipha okungama-8.5% owawunakho. isibikezelo, futhi ibikezela ukuthi umnotho waseRussia empeleni uzokhula ngo-0.3% ngo-2023.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umnotho wase-Ukraine wehle ngo-35% noma ngaphezulu, naphezu kosizo lwezomnotho lwama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-46 oluvela kubakhokhi bentela abaphanayo baseMelika, ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 67 zosizo lwezempi.
Iminotho yaseYurophu nayo iyathuthuka. Ngemuva kokukhula ngo-3.5% ngo-2022, umnotho wendawo ye-Euro unjalo kulindelwe ukuntengantenga futhi kukhule ngo-0.7% kuphela ngo-2023, kuyilapho umnotho waseBrithani kulindeleke ukuthi ube nenkontileka ngo-0.6%. IJalimane ibithembele kakhulu emandleni aseRussia angenisiwe kunamanye amazwe amakhulu aseYurophu ngakho-ke, ngemuva kokukhula kancane ngo-1.9% ngo-2022, kubikezelwa ukuthi izokhula ngo-0.1% ngo-2023. ukukhokha cishe ngama-40% ngaphezulu kwamandla ngo-2023 kunangowezi-2021.
I-United States ayithinteki ngokuqondile kune-Europe, kodwa ukukhula kwayo kwehle kusuka ku-5.9% ngo-2021 kuya ku-2% ngo-2022, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke ukuncipha, kuya ku-1.4% ngo-2023 kanye no-1% ngo-2024. Khonamanjalo i-India, elokhu ingathathi hlangothi. ngenkathi ithenga uwoyela eRussia ngenani elehlisiwe, kulindeleke ukuthi igcine izinga layo lokukhula lika-2022 lingaphezu kuka-6% ngonyaka phakathi kuka-2023 no-2024. I-China iphinde yazuza ngokuthenga uwoyela waseRussia owehlisiwe kanye nasekunyukeni okuphelele kokuhwebelana neRussia ngama-30%. ngo-2022. Umnotho waseChina u kulindelwe ukukhula ngo-5% kulo nyaka.
Abanye abakhiqizi bakawoyela negesi bathole inzuzo engapheli emiphumeleni yenswinyo. I-GDP yaseSaudi Arabia ikhule ngo-8.7%, eshesha kakhulu kuwo wonke umnotho omkhulu, kuyilapho izinkampani zikawoyela zaseNtshonalanga zihleka zaze zaya ebhange ukuyofaka imali. $ 200 billion ngenzuzo: I-ExxonMobil yenza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-56, irekhodi lesikhathi sonke lenkampani kawoyela, kuyilapho iShell yenza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-40 kanti iChevron neTotal yazuza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-36 ngayinye. I-BP yenza “kuphela” amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-28, njengoba ivale ukusebenza kwayo eRussia, kodwa isaphinda kabili inzuzo yayo ka-2021.
Ngokuqondene negesi yemvelo, abahlinzeki begesi yemvelo yase-US LNG (i-liquefied natural gas) njenge-Cheniere nezinkampani ezifana ne-Total ezisabalalisa igesi eYurophu Faka esikhundleni Ukunikezwa kweYurophu ngegesi yemvelo yaseRussia enegesi eqhekekile evela e-United States, cishe amanani aphindwe kane kunalawo akhokhelwa ngamakhasimende ase-US, kanye eyesabekayo umthelela wesimo sezulu we-fracking. Ubusika obupholile eYurophu kanye nenani elikhulu lamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-850 Izibonelelo zikahulumeni waseYurophu ezindlini nasezinkampanini zehlise amanani entengo kagesi abuyele emazingeni ka-2021, kodwa ngemva kwalokho i-spiked ukuphakama okuphindwe kahlanu ehlobo lika-2022.
Ngenkathi impi ibuyisele ukuzithoba kweYurophu ku-US hegemony esikhathini esifushane, le mithelela yomhlaba wangempela yempi ingaba nemiphumela ehluke kakhulu esikhathini eside. UMongameli waseFrance u-Emmanuel Macron kusho, “Esimeni sanamuhla sezombangazwe, phakathi kwamazwe asekela i-Ukraine, kunezigaba ezimbili ezidalekayo emakethe yegesi: lawo akhokha kakhulu nalawo athengisa ngamanani aphakeme kakhulu… I-United States ingumkhiqizi wegesi eshibhile zidayisa ngenani eliphezulu… angicabangi ukuthi kuwubungane lokho.”
Isenzo esingenabungane nakakhulu kwaba ukucekelwa phansi kwamapayipi egesi angaphansi kolwandle i-Nord Stream elethe igesi yaseRussia eJalimane. Seymour Hersh kubika ukuthi amapayipi aqhunyiswa yi-United States, ngosizo lweNorway—amazwe amabili asuse iRussia njengamazwe amabili aseYurophu. ngobukhulu abahlinzeki begesi yemvelo. Ngokuhambisana nenani eliphezulu likaphethiloli oqhekekile wase-US, lokhu kuye kwaba njalo sithunyiwe ukuthukuthela phakathi komphakathi waseYurophu. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, abaholi baseYurophu bangase baphethe ngokuthi ikusasa lalesi sifunda lisemandleni ezombusazwe nakwezomnotho ngaphandle kwamazwe aqala ukuhlasela amasosha kuso, futhi lokho kungahlanganisa i-United States neRussia.
Abanye abaphumelele kakhulu empini yase-Ukraine bazoba abenzi bezikhali, ababuswa umhlaba wonke yi-US "big five": u-Lockheed Martin, u-Boeing, u-Northrop Grumman, u-Raytheon kanye ne-General Dynamics. Iningi lezikhali ezithunyelwe e-Ukraine kuze kube manje zivela ezinqolobaneni ezikhona e-United States nasemazweni e-NATO. Ukugunyazwa kokwakha inqwaba yesitoko enkudlwana nakakhulu kwafika kuKhongolose ngoDisemba, kodwa izinkontileka eziwumphumela azikavela ezibalweni zokuthengisa zezinkampani zezikhali noma ezitatimendeni zenzuzo.
Obambele Reed-Inhofe Ukuchitshiyelwa ku-FY2023 National Defence Authorization Act egunyazwe "isikhathi sempi" inkontileka yeminyaka eminingi, engekho-bhidi "yokugcwalisa" amasheya ezikhali athunyelwe e-Ukraine, kodwa inani lezikhali ezizothengwa lidlula amanani athunyelwa e-Ukraine kuze kufike ku-500 kuya kweyodwa. . Owayeyisikhulu esiphezulu se-OMB uMarc Cancian uphawule wathi, “Lokhu akuthathi indawo esikunikeze yona [i-Ukraine]. Yakha izinqolobane zempi enkulu yaphansi [neRussia] esikhathini esizayo.”
Njengoba izikhali zisanda kuqala ukukhipha imigqa yokukhiqiza ukuze kwakhiwe lezi zinqolobane, isilinganiso senzuzo yempi elindelwe imboni yezikhali sibonakala kahle kakhulu, okwamanje, ngo-2022 ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo yazo: I-Lockheed Martin, ikhuphuke ngama-37%; I-Northrop Grumman, ikhuphuke ngo-41%; I-Raytheon, ikhuphuke ngo-17%; kanye ne-General Dynamics, ikhuphuke ngo-19%.
Nakuba amazwe nezinkampani ezimbalwa zithole inzuzo ngale mpi, amazwe akude nendawo yombango abelokhu ekhungathekile ngenxa yokuwa komnotho. I-Russia ne-Ukraine bebengabahlinzeki ababalulekile bakakolweni, ummbila, uwoyela wokupheka nomanyolo ezindaweni eziningi zomhlaba. Impi lezijeziso sezibangele ukuswelakala kwazo zonke lezi zimpahla, kanye lamafutha okuzithwala, okwenza intengo yokudla inyuke kakhulu emhlabeni.
Ngakho-ke abanye abakhulu abahluliwe kule mpi ngabantu baseGlobal South abathembele kubo ukungeniswa zokudla kanye nomanyolo ovela eRussia nase-Ukraine ukuze nje ondle imikhaya yawo. I-Egypt kanye neTurkey yizona ezihamba phambili zikakolweni wase-Russian nase-Ukraine, kuyilapho ishumi nambili lamanye amazwe asengozini kakhulu ancike cishe ngokuphelele eRussia nase-Ukraine ukuze athole ukolweni wawo, kusukela eBangladesh, ePakistan naseLaos kuya eBenin, eRwanda naseSomalia. Ishumi nanhlanu Amazwe ase-Afrika angenisa ngaphezu kwengxenye kakolweni eRussia nase-Ukraine ngo-2020.
I-Black Sea Grain Initiative edidiyelwe yi-UN kanye neTurkey idambise inkinga yokudla kwamanye amazwe, kodwa isivumelwano sisalokhu singaqiniseki. Kufanele ivuselelwe uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ngaphambi kokuthi iphelelwe yisikhathi ngoMashi 18, 2023, kepha unswinyo lwaseNtshonalanga lusavimba ukuthunyelwa kukamanyolo waseRussia, okufanele kukhishwe unswinyo ngaphansi kohlelo lokusanhlamvu. Isikhulu se-UN sosizo lwabantu uMartin Griffiths utshele i-Agence France-Presse ngoFebhuwari 15 ukuthi ukukhulula ukuthunyelwa kukamanyolo waseRussia "kuyinto ebaluleke kakhulu."
Ngemva konyaka wokuhlatshwa nokucekelwa phansi e-Ukraine, singamemezela ukuthi abaphumelele kwezomnotho kule mpi yilaba: iSaudi Arabia; I-ExxonMobil kanye nezinye iziqhwaga zikawoyela; U-Lockheed Martin; kanye noNorthrop Grumman.
Abahluliwe, okokuqala, abantu abazidelayo base-Ukraine, ezinhlangothini zombili zemigqa yangaphambili, wonke amasosha alahlekelwe izimpilo zawo kanye nemindeni elahlekelwe abathandekayo babo. Kodwa futhi kukholomu elahlekelwayo kuyasebenza futhi abantu abampofu yonke indawo, ikakhulukazi emazweni aseGlobal South athembele kakhulu ekudleni namandla avela kwamanye amazwe. Okokugcina uMhlaba, umkhathi wawo nesimo sezulu—konke kuhlatshelwe uNkulunkulu Wempi.
Yingakho-ke njengoba impi isingena onyakeni wesibili wayo, kuqubuka isikhalo emhlabeni wonke sokuthi abathintekayo kulo mbango bathole izixazululo. Amazwi kaMongameli waseBrazil uLula abonisa lowo muzwa okhulayo. Lapho ecindezelwa uMongameli uBiden ukuthi athumele izikhali e-Ukraine, yena wathi, “Angifuni ukujoyina le mpi, ngifuna ukuyiqeda.”
UMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Impi e-Ukraine: Ukwenza Umuzwa Wengxabano Engenangqondo, etholakala ku-OR Books ngoNovemba 2022.
UMedea Benjamin ungumsunguli we CODEPINK for Ukuthula, kanye nombhali wezincwadi eziningana, kuhlanganise Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Umlando Weqiniso Nezombangazwe YeRiphabhulikhi Yase-Islamic yase-Iran.
UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimele, umcwaningi we-CODEPINK kanye nomlobi we Igazi ezandleni Zethu: I-American Invasion kanye nokubhujiswa kwe-Iraq.
