Kwenzekani Uma Inkinga Yesimo Sezulu Nezemvelo Ihlelwa Njengosongo Lukazwelonke?

Isithombe: iStock

Ibhalwe nguLiz Boulton, Amaparele nokuCasulwa, Okthoba 11, 2022

Iminyaka engama-30, ubungozi bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu esiyingozi, obungenza umhlaba ungahlali ezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, bekubhekwa njengodaba lokubusa kwesayensi nomnotho. Ngokwengxenye ngenxa yezinkambiso zomlando, kodwa futhi ngenxa yokukhathazeka okusemthethweni mayelana isitifiketi, lezi bekuyizindaba zomphakathi ngokuphelele.

Nakuba ososayensi betadisha amathuba okubhidlika kokuphila kwamaplanethi; umkhakha wezokuvikela, obhekene nokuvikela izifundazwe, abantu kanye nezindawo zabo, (futhi uxhaswe ukwenza kanjalo) ugxile kwezinye izindawo. Amazwe aseNtshonalanga ahlela inkinga enkulu yezokuphepha manje njengombukiso phakathi kwezinhlobo zokubusa zentando yeningi nezabantu. Izizwe ezingezona ezentshonalanga zifuna ukusuka ku-unipolar ziye emhlabeni onama-polar amaningi.

Kulo mbuso wezwe, njengenhloko Yesikhungo Sesimo Sezulu Nezokuphepha sase-US u-John Conger Uchaza, ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kubhekwa njengesithako esisodwa sezici eziningi eziyingozi. Kuyo 2022 Umqondo Wamasu I-NATO ilandela okufanayo, ichaza ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu njengenselelo ebala okokugcina kweziyi-14 ezikhathazayo zokuphepha. Lezi zinhlaka ziyaphinda Lena indawo ka-Sherri Goodman Uhlaka lwangempela "lokufudumala komhlaba njengokuphindaphinda izinsongo", olwethulwa ngo-2007 Umbiko we-CNA.

Ngo-2022, lokhu kuyinkambiso yokuthi ukuphepha kufinyelelwa kanjani. Abantu bahlala ezinqolobaneni zabo zemisebenzi futhi basebenzisa uhlaka oluvelele kanye nezakhiwo zesikhungo kusukela esikhathini sangaphambi kwe-Anthropocene kanye nenkathi yangemva kwe-WW2. Leli lungiselelo lingase likhululeke emphakathini nangokwengqondo, kodwa inkinga iwukuthi, alisasebenzi.

Indlela entsha ebizwa ngokuthi 'Uhlelo E' ibeka izindaba zesimo sezulu nezemvelo hhayi 'njengethonya' endaweni esongelayo, noma 'isiphindaphinda sosongo' kodwa kunalokho, 'njengethonya'usongo olukhulu'kuzobanjwa. Ucwaningo lubandakanya ukwakha umqondo omusha wosongo - the i-hyperthreat umbono - bese ubeka 'i-hyperthreat' ekuhlaziyeni okuguquliwe kwesitayela sezempi kanye nenqubo yokuhlela impendulo. Isizathu sale ndlela engajwayelekile, kanye nezindlela ezisetshenzisiwe zivezwe eNtwasahlobo ka-2022 Ijenali Yezifundo Ezithuthukile Zezempi. Ukuze unikeze umbono obanzi wokuthi isimo esisha sosongo singabukeka kanjani, umboniso ohambisana nawo, noma i-prototype entsha isu elihle, PLAN E, nayo yakhiwe.

Nakuba kuyingozi futhi kungathandeki, le lensi entsha yokuhlaziya ivumele imininingwane emisha.

1. 1. Okokuqala, yembula lelo khono lokubona isimo esiphelele sosongo se-21^st I-Century ikhinyabezwa yizakhiwo zefilosofi eziphelelwe yisikhathi kanye nemibono yomhlaba.
   2. Okwesibili, yagqamisa umqondo wokuthi isimo sobudlova, ukubulala nokucekela phansi sesishintshile kakhulu; kanjalo futhi kunemvelo kanye nesimo senhloso enobutha.
   3. Okwesithathu, kwaba sobala ukuthi ukufika kwe-hyperthreat kuphakamisa izindlela zesimanje zokuphepha. 20^th Isu lokuvikela lekhulu leminyaka lalizungeza ekusekeleni izinhlobo zamandla enkathi yezimboni, ezazincike ekukhishweni kwezinsiza kanye nokunikezwa 'kawoyela owinayo'. empini. Njengoba uDoug Stokes Uchaza, ikakhulukazi ngemva kweminyaka yawo-1970, njengoba amaketanga okunikezwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke eba sengozini yokuphazamiseka, kwaba nempikiswano eyandayo yomhlaba wonke yokusebenzisa amathuluzi anamandla, njengeCentral Intelligence Agency (CIA) kanye namasosha ase-US ukuze "agcine uhlelo."

Ngokunjalo, ngokwenza umsebenzi “wokulungisa uhlelo”, ngokungaqondile umkhakha wezokuphepha ungagcina ususebenzela i-hyperthreat (okwandisa ukukhishwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa kanye nezinhlelo ezilimazayo zemvelo). Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nini ajahe ngesihluku, “ukugcinwa kwesistimu” kudala ukucasuka futhi kungaholela ekubeni “intshonalanga” ibhekwe njengosongo olusebenzayo kwezinye izizwe. Uma kuhlanganiswe, imithelela enjalo ingasho ukuthi ibutho lezokuphepha lamazwe aseNtshonalanga libukela phansi ngokungaqondile ukuphepha kwalo nokwabanye. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuma kwethu kokusongela akusahlangene.

4. 4. Okwesine, ukugcina inqubomgomo yesimo sezulu kanye nemvelo endaweni eyodwa, nesu lezokuphepha kwelinye, kwakusho ukuthi, nakuba izingxoxo zesimo sezulu saseParis Agreement zifana nempi yase-Iraq, lezi zingqinamba ezimbili zazingavamile ukuxhunyaniswa ekuhlaziyeni ukuphepha kwesimo sezulu. Njengoba UJeff Colgan uthola, uwoyela wawungumshayeli omkhulu wale ngxabano, futhi ngokufanele, ngaleyo ndlela, ngokungavamile, usebenzisa i-lens entsha, iMpi yase-Iraq ingabhekwa njengempi eyalwelwa isitha sethu esisha - i-hyperthreat. Leli gebe lokuhlaziya elididayo alikwazi ukuqhubeka ekuhlaziyweni kokuphepha okuzayo.
   5. Okwesihlanu, akusona isizwe esiqeqeshelwa umsebenzi - isayensi yezemvelo noma ukuphepha akubonile ukungahambisani kwesintu esilungiselela 'ukulwa' kokubili ukwesaba okukhulu kanye nezinsongo zezempi ezikhulayo ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ngezidingo zayo ezingaba khona ezintweni zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi; amakhono obunjiniyela babantu; izinsiza zobuchwepheshe kanye nezezimali, amalungiselelo ashisekayo esimo seMpi Yezwe Yesithathu (WW3), (noma impi enkulu yangempela phakathi nonyaka ka-2022 kuya kowezi-2030), kungase kuphazamise umsebenzi onzima wokuguqula umphakathi wesintu ungene ezindleleni ezingakhiphi, futhi kuboshwe abantu. umcimbi wokushabalala wesithupha.
   6. Okwesithupha, ukwehluleka ukucabangela isimo sosongo njengengxenye yempendulo ephumelelayo yomphakathi ku-hyperthreat phika isintu amakhono amaningi okuhlaziya, endlela yokusebenza, kanye nezenhlalo abantu abawathuthukisile ezinkulungwaneni zeminyaka ukuze bazivikele ekusongeleni okuyingozi nokumangalisayo. Iphinde yaqeda ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi umkhakha wezokuvikela nokuvikela uzulazule, uhlele kabusha, futhi uguqule ukunaka kwawo namandla abalulekile ehhashi ekuphenduleni okukhulu.

Nakuba ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuyingozi kuvame ukukhulunywa ngakho “njengosongo olukhulu kakhulu;” Isimo sosongo sobuntu asikaze sishintshe ngokuyisisekelo.

UHLELO E inikeza enye indlela: umkhakha wezokuvikela ngokuphazima kweso ususa ukunaka kwawo kanye nokwesekwa “kokugcina amasistimu” kususe umkhakha wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi kanye nezinsiza ezisetshenziswayo. Isekela umsebenzi ohlukile "wokugcinwa kwezinhlelo": ukuvikelwa kwesistimu yempilo yeplanethi. Ngokwenza kanjalo, iphinde ihambisane nesisekelo sayo se-rais d'être sokuvikela abantu bayo nezindawo zayo - empini ebaluleke kakhulu eyake yabonwa isintu.