NguJohn Horgan, USte, Ngo-Ephreli 30, i-2022
Ngisanda kubuza amakilasi ami onyaka wokuqala wesintu: Ingabe impi iyoke iphele? Ngacacisa ukuthi ngangicabanga ngokuphela kwempi ngisho nempi usongo lempi phakathi kwezizwe. Nganikeza abafundi bami amandla ngokubanikeza “Impi Iwukusungulwa Kuphela” ngu-anthropologist uMargaret Mead kanye “Umlando Wodlame” nguSteven Pinker oyisazi sokusebenza kwengqondo.
Abanye abafundi basola, njengo-Pinker, ukuthi impi isuka emifuleni ejulile yokuziphendukela kwemvelo. Abanye bavumelana noMead ukuthi impi “iwukusungulwa” kwamasiko hhayi “isidingo sezinto eziphilayo.” Kodwa kungakhathaliseki ukuthi babona impi ngokuyinhloko ivela emvelweni noma ekukhuliseni, cishe bonke abafundi bami baphendula: Cha, impi ayisoze yaphela.
Bathi impi ayinakugwenywa, ngoba abantu ngokwemvelo banomhobholo futhi bathanda ukulwa. Noma ngenxa yokuthi impi, njengonxiwankulu, isiyingxenye yaphakade yesiko lethu. Noma ngenxa yokuthi, ngisho noma iningi lethu lizonda impi, abashisekeli abafana noHitler noPutin bayohlale bevuka, bephoqa abantu abathanda ukuthula ukuba balwe ngokuzivikela.
Ukusabela kwabafundi bami akungimangazi. Ngaqala ukubuza ukuthi impi izoke iphele yini cishe eminyakeni engu-20 edlule, ngesikhathi i-US ihlasela i-Iraq. Kusukela lapho ngivotele izinkulungwane zabantu bayo yonke iminyaka kanye nemibono yezepolitiki e-US nakwezinye izindawo. Cishe abantu abayisishiyagalolunye kwabayishumi bathi impi ayinakugwenywa.
Lokhu kufatalism kuyaqondakala. I-US ibilokhu isempini ingami kusukela ngomhlaka-9/11. Nakuba amasosha aseMelika asuka e-Afghanistan ngonyaka odlule ngemva kweminyaka engu-20 yokusebenza ngobudlova, i-US isawugcina umbuso wezempi womhlaba wonke ehlanganisa amazwe nezindawo ezingama-80. Ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine kuqinisa umqondo wethu wokuthi lapho impi eyodwa iphela, enye iqala.
Ukufa kwempi kugcwele isiko lethu. Ku I-Expanse, uchungechunge lwe-sci-fi engilufundayo, umlingisi uchaza impi “njengomsangano” ofika udlule kodwa ongashabalali. Uthi: “Nginovalo lokuthi uma nje singabantu, impi izoba nathi.
Lokhu kufatalism akulungile ngezindlela ezimbili. Okokuqala, akulungile ngokomthetho. Ucwaningo luqinisekisa isimangalo sikaMead sokuthi impi, kude nokuba nezimpande ezijulile zokuziphendukela kwemvelo okusungulwe kwakamuva kwamasiko. Futhi njengoba u-Pinker ebonisile, impi iye yehla kakhulu kusukela ngeMpi Yezwe II, naphezu kwezingxabano zamuva. Impi phakathi kweFrance neJalimane, izitha ezibuhlungu amakhulu eminyaka, isiyinto engaqondakali njengempi phakathi kwe-US neCanada.
I-fatalism nayo ayilungile ngokuziphatha ngoba isiza ukuqhubeza impi. Uma sicabanga ukuthi impi ayisoze yaphela, mancane amathuba okuthi sizame ukuyiqeda. Maningi amathuba okuthi sigcine amabutho ahlomile ukuze avimbele ukuhlasela futhi anqobe izimpi uma kuqubuka nakanjani.
Cabanga ngendlela abanye abaholi abasabela ngayo empini yase-Ukraine. UMongameli uJoe Biden ufuna ukukhulisa isabelomali sezempi saminyaka yonke saseMelika siye ku- $813 billion, izinga eliphezulu kunawo wonke. I-US isivele isebenzisa imali engaphezu kokuphindwe kathathu emabuthweni ahlomile njengeChina futhi izikhathi eziyishumi nambili kuneRussia, ngokusho kwe I-Stockholm International International Research Institute, SIPRI. Undunankulu wase-Estonia, uKaja Kallas, unxusa amanye amazwe e-NATO ukuthi anyuse imali ayisebenzisa kwezempi. “Ngezinye izikhathi indlela engcono kakhulu yokufinyelela ukuthula iwukuba uzimisele ukusebenzisa amandla ezempi,” usho kanje I-New York Times.
Usomlando wezempi ongasekho uJohn Keegan wenza ukungabaza ngethisisi yokuthula-ngamandla. Ku-magnum opus yakhe ka-1993 Umlando Wezimpi, uKeegan uthi impi ngokuyinhloko ayibangelwa “imvelo yomuntu” noma izici zomnotho kodwa “esikhungweni sempi ngokwaso.” Ukulungiselela impi kwenza kube mancane amathuba, ngokusho kokuhlaziywa kukaKeegan.
Impi iphinde iphambukise izinsiza, ubuhlakani namandla kude kwezinye izinkinga eziphuthumayo. Izizwe zihlangene zisebenzisa cishe ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili ngonyaka kwezempi, kanti i-US ibala cishe ingxenye yaleyo mali. Leyo mali inikezelwe ekufeni nasekubhubhiseni esikhundleni semfundo, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo, ucwaningo lwamandla ahlanzekile kanye nezinhlelo zokulwa nobumpofu. Njengenhlangano engenzi nzuzo World Beyond War amadokhumenti, impi nezempi “kulimaza kakhulu indawo ezungezile, kucekela phansi inkululeko yomphakathi, futhi kucekele phansi umnotho wethu.”
Ngisho nempi enobulungisa kakhulu ayinabo ubulungisa. Phakathi neMpi Yezwe II i-US namadlelandawonye ayo—abafana abalungile!—bawisa amabhomu omlilo nezikhali zenuzi kubantu abavamile. I-US igxeka iRussia, kufanele, ngokubulala izakhamizi e-Ukraine. Kodwa kusukela ngo-9/11, ukusebenza kwamasosha ase-US e-Afghanistan, e-Iraq, ePakistan, eSyria naseYemen kuholele ekufeni kwabantu abangaphezu kuka-387,072, ngokusho kombiko. I-Costs of War project eBrown University.
Ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine kuye kwadalula izinto ezinyantisayo zempi ukuze zibonwe yibo bonke. Esikhundleni sokuqinisa izikhali zethu ukuze sibhekane nale nhlekelele, kufanele sikhulume ngendlela yokudala izwe lapho izingxabano ezichitha igazi zingenzeki khona. Ukuqeda impi ngeke kube lula, kodwa kufanele kube yisibopho sokuziphatha, njengoba nje kuqedwa ubugqila kanye nokunqotshwa kwabesifazane. Isinyathelo sokuqala sokuqeda impi ukukholelwa ukuthi kungenzeka.
UJohn Horgan uqondisa iSikhungo Semibhalo Yesayensi. Le kholomu ithathelwe kwenye eshicilelwe ku-ScientificAmerican.com.
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