IZINDAWO ZINGABONI, NEZIQINISEKWA NGOKWENZEKA

"Ngeke ngibe ngumongameli wokuqala ukulahlekelwa impi," ufunga uLyndon Johnson.

"Ngizobona ukuthi i-United States ayilahleki. Ngikubeka ngokucacile. Ngizoba ncamashi kahle. INingizimu Vietnam ingase ilahlekelwe. Kodwa i-United States ayikwazi ukulahlekelwa. Okusho ukuthi, ngokuyisisekelo, ngenze isinqumo. Noma ngabe kwenzekani eNingizimu neVietnam, siya ekhilimu eNyakatho Vietnam. . . . Ngesikhathi esisodwa kumele sisebenzise amandla amakhulu kuleli zwe. . . ngokumelene neli zwe elincane elimbongolo: ukunqoba impi. Asikwazi ukusebenzisa igama elithi 'ukunqoba.' Kodwa abanye bangakwazi, "kusho uRichard Nixon.

Yiqiniso, uJohnson noNixon "balahlekelwa" leyo mpi, kodwa babengewona oongameli bokuqala ukulahlekelwa yimpi. Impi yaseKorea yayingakapheli ngokunqoba, nje isiyaluyalu. "Hamba umshini," kusho amasosha. I-United States yalahleka izimpi ezihlukahlukene namaMelika aseMelika kanye neMpi ye-1812, futhi ngesikhathi saseVietnam i-United States yafakazela ukuthi ayikwazi ukuxosha uFidel Castro waseCuba. Akuzona zonke izimpi eziwunqobayo, futhi iMpi eVietnam ingase ihambisane nezimpi kamuva ku-Afghanistan nase-Iraq ikhwalithi ethile yokungaqiniseki. Ikhwalithi efanayo ingase itholakale emisebenzini encane engaphumeleli njenge-crisis hostage e-Iran ku-1979, noma emizamweni yokuvimbela ukuhlaselwa kwamaphekula kuma-ambassade ase-United States nase-United States ngaphambi kwe-2001, noma ukugcinwa kwezisekelo ezindaweni ezingeke zibekezelele , njengePhilippines noma i-Saudi Arabia.

Ngisho ukukhombisa okunye okucacile kunokuba nje lezo zimpi ezingenakugodlwa. Ezimpi eziningi zangaphambili, futhi mhlawumbe ngeMpi Yezwe II kanye neMpi yaseKorea, umqondo wokuwina wawuhlanganisa ukunqoba amabutho esitha empini futhi uthatha insimu yabo noma ubatshela ukuthi babekhona yini esikhathini esizayo. Ezimpi ezindala ezehlukene kanye neziningi zezimpi zethu zakamuva, izimpi zahlasela izinkulungwane zamamayela ukusuka ekhaya ziphikisana nabantu kunokulwa namabutho, umqondo wokuwina ube nzima kakhulu ukuchaza. Njengoba sizithola sihlala ezweni lomunye umuntu, ingabe lokho kusho ukuthi sesinqobile kakade, njengoba uBush esho nge-Iraq ngoMeyi 1, 2003? Noma singakwazi yini ukulahlekelwa ngokuhoxiswa? Noma ingabe ukunqoba kufike lapho futhi uma ukulwa nokulwa nobudlova kuncishisiwe kwezinga elithile? Noma ingabe uhulumeni ozinzile olalela izifiso zikaWashington kufanele uqiniswe ngaphambi kokunqoba?

Lelohlobo lokunqoba, ukulawula uhulumeni wezwe eline ukumelana nokuhlukumezeka okuncane, kunzima ukuza. Izimpi zomsebenzi noma ukuhlukunyezwa zivame ukuxoxwa ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngaleli phuzu elibalulekile futhi elibonakala libalulekile: ngokuvamile balahlekile. UWilliam Polk wenza ucwaningo ngezimpikiswano kanye nempi yama-guerrilla lapho ebheka i-American Revolution, ukumelana kweSpanishi ngokumelene neFrance ehlala, ukuvukela kwePhilippines, ukulwa kwe-Ireland yokuzimela, ukumelana kwama-Afghan nabaseBrithani nabaseRussia, nokulwa kwama-guerrilla eYugoslavia, eGrisi, eKenya nase-Algeria, phakathi kwabanye. U-Polk ubuke okwenzekayo uma singabomvu futhi abanye abantu bangama-colonists. Ku-1963 wanikezela isethulo ku-National War College esashiya izikhulu lapho zithukuthele. Wabatshela ukuthi impi yama-guerrilla yayakhiwe kwezombangazwe, ukuphathwa, nokulwa:

"Ngatshela izilaleli ukuthi sasizilahlekile kakade udaba lwezombusazwe - uHo Chi Minh ube ngumbukiso wezwe lobuzwe baseVietnam. Lokho, ngiphakamisile, kwakungamaphesenti angu-80 womzabalazo ophelele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iVi Viet Min noma iView Cong, njengoba sesifikile ukuyibiza, nayo yaphazanyisa ukuphathwa kweNingizimu Vietnam, yabulala inqwaba yezikhulu zayo, ukuthi yayiphelile ukwenza imisebenzi eyisisekelo. Lokho, ngicabanga ukuthi, kufinyelelwe engxenyeni engaphezulu ye-15 yomzabalazo. Ngakho-ke, ngephesenti le-5 kuphela, sasibe nesiphetho esifushane se-lever. Futhi ngenxa yenkohlakalo edabukisayo kahulumeni waseNingizimu Vietnam, njengoba nganginethuba lokuzibona ngeso lengqondo, ngisho noma leyo mboni yayisesengozini yokuphuka. Ngacwayisa amaphoyisa ukuthi impi isivele ilahlekile. "

NgoDisemba 1963, uMongameli uJohnson wabeka iqembu elisebenzayo elibizwa ngeSullivan Task Force. Ukutholakala kwalo kwahluke kakhulu kwi-Polk ngezwi nangenhloso kunezinto ezibonakalayo. Leli qembu lase libheke phambili ekwandiseni impi ngomkhankaso wokuqhuma kwamabhomu obizwa ngokuthi "Rolling Thunder" eNyakatho njengo "ukuzibophezela ukuhamba yonke indlela." Eqinisweni, "isinqumo esiphelele seKomiti yeSullivan ukuthi umkhankaso wokuqhuma amabhomu wawuyoholela empini engapheli , ngokuqhubekayo ikhula, izinhlangothi zombili zazibandakanyeka njalo. "

Lokhu akufanele kube yizindaba. UMnyango Wezezwe wase-US wayazi ukuthi iMpi eVietnam ayikwazanga ukunqoba njengoba i-1946, njengoba uPolk ebika:

"UJohn Carter Vincent, obhekene nokuhlukumezeka kwakhe ngenxa yokuqonda kwakhe eVietnam naseChina, ube ngumqondisi weHhovisi laseMpumalanga Ekude eMnyangweni WezoMbuso. NgoDisemba 23, 1946, wabhala ngokucophelela unobhala wombuso 'onamandla amancane, nombono womphakathi ophikisana kakhulu, nohulumeni owenziwe ngokungafani ngokuhlukana kwangaphakathi, amaFrance azame ukufeza e-Indochina ukuthi yiBrithani enamandla neyodwa uthole ukuthi akuhlakaniphile ukuzama eBurma. Njengoba kunikezwa izakhi zamanje kuleso simo, impi yama-guerrilla ingase iqhubeke kuze kube nini nanini. '"

Ucwaningo lukaPolk lwempi yama-guerrilla emhlabeni wonke lwathola ukuthi ukuhlukunyezwa ngokuphathelene nemisebenzi yangaphandle ngokuvamile akupheli kuze kuphumelele. Lokhu kuvumelana nokutholakala kokubili kweCarnegie Endowment for International Peace kanye neRAND Corporation, kokubili okushiwo esahlukweni sesithathu. Ukuhlukumezeka okuvela emazweni anehulumeni obuthakathaka uphumelela. Ohulumeni abathatha imiyalo evela enhlokodolobha yamanye amazwe bangabuthakathaka. Izimpi uGeorge W. Bush zaqala e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq ngakho-ke cishe cishe izimpi ezizolahleka. Umbuzo oyinhloko wukuthi sizochitha isikhathi esingakanani ukukwenza, nokuthi ngabe i-Afghanistan izoqhubeka iphila ngokuvumelana nedumela layo ngokuthi "amathuna emibuso."

Esinye isidingo angacabangi ngalezi zimpi kuphela ngokuwina noma ukulahlekelwa, noma kunjalo. Uma i-United States ingakhetha izikhulu futhi iphoqe ukuba ilalele izifiso zomphakathi futhi ishiye umhlalaphansi empilweni yangaphandle yezempi, sonke siyoba ngcono. Kungani emhlabeni kufanele ukuthi lowo mphumela oyifunayo ubizwa ngokuthi "ukulahlekelwa"? Sibone esahlukweni sesibili ukuthi ngisho nommeli womongameli e-Afghanistan akakwazi ukuchaza ukuthi ukuphumelela kuzobukeka kanjani. Ngabe-ke, kukhona umqondo ekuziphatheni njengokungathi "ukunqoba" kuyindlela yokukhetha? Uma izimpi zizophela ukuba imikhankaso ehloniphekile nenkazimulo yabaholi abanobuqhawe futhi ibe yilokho abangaphansi komthetho, okuwukuthi ubugebengu, khona-ke kudingekile isilulumagama esihlukile. Awukwazi ukunqoba noma ukulahlekelwa ubugebengu; ungakwazi kuphela ukuqhubeka noma ukuyeka ukukwenza.

Isigaba: I-SHOCK ENYE OKUNYE

Ubuthakathaka bokulwa nokuhlukunyezwa, noma imisebenzi engaphandle, kungukuthi abahlinzeki abantu emazweni ahlala nakho nganoma yini abayidingayo noma abayifunayo; Ngokuphambene nalokho, bacasula futhi balimaze abantu. Lokho kushiya ukuvuleka okukhulu kwamandla okuhlukumezeka, noma kunalokho ukumelana, ukunqoba ukusekelwa kwabantu ohlangothini lwabo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo lapho ibutho lase-US lenza izinto ezibonakalayo ezingenamandla ekuqondeni le nkinga futhi kubangele ukuhlambalaza ngokunciphisa "izinhliziyo nezingqondo," ithengisa izinsiza ezinkulu ngendlela ephikisana ncamashi ekuhloswe ngayo ukuwina abantu, kodwa ukuwashaya phansi kanzima kangangokuthi balahlekelwe konke ukuzimisela ukumelana. Le ndlela inomlando omude futhi oqinisiwe wokuhluleka futhi ungase ungabi nesisusa sangempela ngemuva kwezinhlelo zempi kunezici ezifana nezokwezomnotho nokudabuka. Kodwa kuholela ekufweni okukhulu nokuhamba, okungasiza umsebenzi ngisho noma kuveza izitha kunokuba abangane.

Umlando wakamuva wezinganekwane zokuphula isitha sezitha kufana nomlando wokuqhuma kwamabhomu. Kusukela ngaphambi kokuba izindiza zakhiwe futhi isikhathi eside njengoba abantu bekhona, abantu bakholwa, futhi bangaqhubeka bekholelwa, ukuthi izimpi zinganciphisa ngokuqhuma amabhomu emoyeni emoyeni kangangokuthi zikhala "umalume." Lokhu akusho umsebenzi awusizo isikhawulo sokuqamba kabusha futhi ukuyibuyisela kabusha njengecebo lempi ngayinye entsha.

UMengameli uFranklin Roosevelt utshele uNobhala weMgcinimafa uHenry Morgenthau ku-1941: "Indlela yokukhohlisa uHitler yindlela engangiyitshela ngayo isiNgisi, kodwa ngeke ilalele." URoosevelt wayefuna ukushaya amabhomu amancane. "Kumelwe kube khona uhlobo oluthile lweshidi kuwo wonke amadolobha. Leyo yindlela kuphela yokuphula umthetho wamaJalimane. "

Kwakukhona ukucabanga okungamanga okubili okuyinhloko kulowo mbono, futhi bahlale bevelele ekuhleleni impi kunengqondo. (Angisho ukucabanga ukuthi amabhomu ethu angashaya ifoni; ukuthi angaphuthelwa kungenzeka ukuthi iphuzu likaRosevelt.)

Ukucabanga okungamanga okuyinhloko ukuthi ukuqhuma amabhomu abantu ngamabhomu kunethonya elingokomqondo kubo elifana nolwazi lwesosha empini. Izikhulu ezihlela ukuqhuma kwamabhomu emadolobheni eMpini Yezwe II zazilindele ukuthi izinkomo ze "gibbering lunatics" zizulazula. Kodwa izakhamizi eziphila ngokuqhuma kwamabhomu azizange zibhekane nesidingo sokubulala abanye abantu, noma "umoya wenzondo" okukhulunywe ngazo esahlukweni sokuqala - ukuthi ukukhathazeka okukhulu kwabanye abantu okuzama ukukubulala ngokuzibulala. Eqinisweni, amadolobha aqhuma amabhomu awahlukumezi wonke umuntu kuze kube sekupheleni kwenyanga. Esikhundleni salokho kunzima ukuqinisa izinhliziyo zalabo abasinda futhi baqinise ukuzimisela kwabo ukuqhubeka bekela impi.

Izigameko zokufa emhlabathini zingaphazamisa abantu, kodwa zibandakanya izinga elihlukile lokubeka ingozi nokuzibophezela kunokuba ibhomu liqhume.

Esesibili ukucabanga okungamanga ukuthi uma abantu bephikisana nempi, uhulumeni wabo kungenzeka anikeze indodakazi. Ohulumeni bazama ukungena empini kuqala, futhi ngaphandle uma abantu besongela ukususa emandleni, bangakhetha kakhulu ukuqhubeka nezimpi naphezu kokuphikiswa komphakathi, into eyenziwa yi-United States ngokwayo eKorea, Vietnam, nase-Iraq, futhi Afghanistan, phakathi kwezinye izimpi. Impi yaseVietnam ekugcineni yaphela izinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye ngemuva kokuba umengameli ephoqelelwe ukuba aphume ehhovisi. Futhi nohulumeni abaningi ngeke bafune ukuvikela abahlali babo, njengoba abaseMelika bekulindele ukuthi amaJapane akwenze futhi amaJalimane alindele abaseBrithani ukuba benze. Sasihlasela amabutho aseKorea naseVietnam ngamandla kakhulu, kanti namanje abazange bayeke. Akekho owayesabeka futhi emangazwa.

Ama-theorists abashisayo abakha inkulumo ethi "ukuthuthumela nokwesaba" ku-1996, uHarlan Ullman noJames P. Wade, bakholelwa ukuthi indlela efanayo eyahluleka emashumini eminyaka yayizosebenza, kodwa ukuthi singadinga ngaphezulu. Ukuqhuma kwe-2003 yaseBaghdad akufinyeleleki kulokho u-Ullman ayekucabanga ukuthi kwakudingeka ukuze abesabe abantu. Kulukhuni ukubona ukuthi imibono enjalo idonselaphi phakathi kwabantu abangabonakali njengoba bengakaze baxoshwe ngaphambilini, futhi babulala iningi labantu, elinomphumela ofanayo futhi lenziwe ngaphambili.

Iqiniso liwukuthi izimpi, lapho seziqalile, zinzima kakhulu ukulawula noma ukubikezela, kancane kancane zithole. Abantu abambalwa abanama-box cutters bangathatha izakhiwo zakho ezinkulu kunazo zonke, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi unamaphi ama-nukes onayo. Futhi iqembu elincane lamavukelambuso angaqeqeshwe ngamabhomu ajwayele ukuxoshwa ngamafoni elahlwayo angakwazi ukunqoba impi yamabhiliyoni ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisithupha eyesibindi sokusetha isitolo ezweni elingalungile. Isici esiyinhloko yilapho ukukhathazeka okukhona kubantu, futhi lokho kukhula kunzima ukuqondisa ukuthi amandla asebenzayo ahlose ukuwaqondisa.

Isigaba: ISITHOMBE SOKUQALA NGOKWENZA

Kodwa asikho isidingo sokuvuma ukunqotshwa. Kulula ngokwanele ukubiza ukuthi befuna ukushiya yonke indawo, ukukhulisa impi okwesikhashana, bese kuthiwa bayashiya ngenxa ye "impumelelo" engafaniwe yokukhula kwamuva. Le ndaba, echazwe ukuze izwakale ilukhuni kancane, ingabonakala kalula njengokunqotshwa kunokuthi ukuphunyuka nge-helicopter kusuka ophahleni ku-ambassy.

Ngoba izimpi ezedlule zazingenakunqotshwa futhi zalahleka, futhi ngenxa yokuthi inkulumo-ze yempi isetshenziswe kakhulu kulowo mbono, abahleli bempi bacabanga ukuthi yilokho kuphela okukhethwa kukho. Ngokusobala bathola enye yalezi zikhethelo ezingenakubekezelelwa. Bakholelwa nokuthi izimpi zezwe zanqotshwa ngenxa yokuqhuma kwamabutho aseMelika abe yiziqhwaga. Ngakho-ke, ukunqoba kuyadingeka, kungenzeka, futhi kungenziwa ngomzamo omkhulu. Lona ngumlayezo ozokhishwa, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amaqiniso asebenzisana noma cha, futhi noma ubani othi kukhona okuhlukile ukulimaza umzamo wempi.

Lokhu ukucabanga ngokwemvelo kuholela ekuzikhohliseni okukhulu mayelana nokuwina, izinkolelo zamanga zokuthi ukunqoba kuphezu kwekhoneni, izincazelo zokunqoba njengoba zidinga, futhi ukwenqaba ukuchaza ukunqoba ukuze ukwazi ukukusho kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yini. Inkulumo-mpilo enhle yempi ingenza noma yini izwakale njengenqubekela phambili eya ekunqobeni ngenkathi idonsela kolunye uhlangothi ukuthi iqondiswe ukunqotshwa. Kodwa nxazonke zombili zombili zifuna njalo inqubekela phambili, omunye umuntu kufanele enze iphutha, futhi inzuzo ekukholiseni abantu cishe iya ohlangothini olukhuluma ulimi lwabo.

UHarold Lasswell wachaza ukubaluleka kokusakaza kwenkulumo e-1927:

"Inkohliso yokunqoba kumele ikhuliswe ngenxa yokuxhumana okuqinile phakathi kokuqinile nokuhle. Imikhuba emibi yokucabangela iyaqhubeka empilweni yanamuhla, futhi izimpi ziba yivivinyo ukuze ziqiniseke ukuthi ziyiqiniso futhi zilungile. Uma sinqoba, uNkulunkulu uhlangothini lwethu. Uma silahlekelwa, uNkulunkulu kungenzeka ukuthi ukhona ngakolunye uhlangothi. . . . [D] efeat ufuna okuningi ukuchaza, kuyilapho ukunqoba kukhuluma ngokwalo. "

Ngakho-ke, ukuqala impi ngesisekelo sobuxoki obungenangqondo obungeke bakholwe ngenyanga, uma nje kungakapheli inyanga ungamemezela ukuthi "uyaphumelela."

Ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa, okunye okudinga ukuchaza okuningi kungukuphela kwesikhathi. Izimpi zethu ezintsha ziqhubeka isikhathi eside kunezimpi zezwe. I-United States yayiseMpi Yezwe I ngonyaka nonyaka, eMpini Yezwe II iminyaka emithathu nengxenye, naseMpi yaseKorea iminyaka emithathu. Lokho kwakuyizimpi eside futhi eziyingozi. Kodwa iMpi eVietnam ithatha okungenani iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili nengxenye - noma isikhathi eside, kuye ngokuthi ulinganisa kanjani. Izimpi ze-Afghanistan ne-Iraq bebehamba iminyaka eyisishiyagalolunye neminyaka eyisikhombisa nengxenye ngokulandelana ngesikhathi salokhu kubhala.

Impi e-Iraq yayisesikhathi eside i-big and bloodier yezimpi ezimbili, futhi izishoshovu zokuthula zase-US ziqhubeka zifuna ukuhoxiswa. Ngokuvamile satshelwa abaphikisi bempi ukuthi ukusungulwa kwezinto eziningi zokuletha amabutho ezinkulungwane ezivela e-Iraq, kanye nemishini yabo, kudinga iminyaka. Lesi simangalo sabonakala singamanga ku-2010, lapho amanye amasosha we-100,000 ehoxiswa ngokushesha. Kungani lokho kwakungeke kwenzeke iminyaka ngaphambi? Kungani impi idonsela phambili nokuqhubeka nokuqhubeka, futhi ikhula?

Kuyini okuzofika kulezi zimpi ezimbili i-United States eqhubekayo njengoba ngibhala lokhu (amathathu uma sibala iPakistan), ngokwemigomo yabezimbangi, ihlala ibonakala. Labo abazuza ngezimpi kanye "nokuvuselelwa" bebezuzisa le minyaka eminingana. Kodwa ingabe kuzosekelwa izinqwaba zamasosha ase-Iraq nase-Afghanistan ngokungapheli? Noma ingabe ezinye izinkulungwane zezinkampani eziqashwe uMnyango Wezezwe wase-US ukuqapha ama-ambassade amarekhodi kanye nama-consulates kufanele akwanele? Ingabe i-United States ingabe ilawula phezu kohulumeni noma izinsiza zomhlaba? Ingabe ukunqotshwa kuyoba okuphelele noma okuyingxenye? Lokho kuhlale kunqunywa, kodwa okuqinisekile ukuthi izincwadi zomlando wase-US ngeke ziqukathe izincazelo zokunqotshwa. Bazobika ukuthi lezi zimpi zaba yimpumelelo. Futhi zonke izinkulumo zokuphumelela zizobandakanya ukubhekisela kokuthile okuthiwa "ukuqhuma."

Isigaba: INGABE UNGAKHONA UKUHLOLA?

"Siphumelele e-Iraq!" - USenator John McCain (R., Ariz.)

Njengoba impi engenathemba iqhubekela phambili iminyaka yonke, ngokunqoba kungacaciswanga futhi kungacabangiki, kukhona njalo impendulo ekuntulekeni kwenqubekela phambili, futhi leyo mpendulo ihlale "ithumela amabutho amaningi." Lapho ubudlova behla, kudingeka amanye amasosha ukwakha empumelelweni. Lapho udlame lukhuphuka, kudingeka amanye amabutho ukuze ahlasele.

Isivimbela isibalo samabutho esivele sithunyelwe sinezinto eziningi zokuntuleka kwezempi kwanoma yikuphi amanye amabutho okuhlukunyezwa ngokuvakasha kwesibili nesikwesithathu kunezokuphikiswa kwezombangazwe. Kodwa uma kudingeka indlela entsha, noma okungenani ukubonakala kwayo, i-Pentagon ingathola amasosha engeziwe e-30,000 ukuze ayithumele, ayibize ngokuthi "ukuqhuma," futhi amemezele ukuthi impi iphinda izalwe njengezilwane ezihluke ngokuphelele. Ukushintsha kwesiteleka kunelisekile, eWashington, DC, njengempendulo yezidingo zokuhoxiswa okuphelele: Asikwazi ukuhamba manje; sizama okuthile okuhlukile! Sizokwenza okungaphezulu kwalokho esikwenzile eminyakeni eminingana edlule! Futhi umphumela uyoba ukuthula nentando yeningi: sizoqeda impi ngokuyikhuphula!

Lo mbono wawungeyona entsha ne-Iraq. Ukuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu e-saturation eHanoi naseHaiphong okukhulunywe ngakho esahlukweni sesithupha kungenye isibonelo sokuqeda impi ngokubonisa okungenangqondo kokuqina okungeziwe. Njengoba nje iVietnam beyivumelene nemibandela efanayo ngaphambi kokuqhuma kwamabhomu ukuthi bavumelane kamuva, uhulumeni wase-Iraq wayezokwamukela noma yisiphi isivumelwano esenza i-United States iminyaka yokuhoxiswa ngaphambi kokuba kuqhume, ngaphambi kwayo noma ngesikhathi sayo. Ngesikhathi iPhalamende lase-Iraq livuma isivumelwano esibizwa ngokuthi Isimo Sezimiso Zamasosha ku-2008, senze kuphela uma isimo sokubuyiselwa komphakathi siqhutshwa ukuthi siyakuphika isivumelwano futhi sikhethe ukuhoxiswa ngokushesha ngaphandle kokubambezeleka kweminyaka emithathu. Lokho kubhekwa akuzange kubanjwe.

Isivumelwano sikaMongameli Bush sokuba ashiye i-Iraq - naphezu kokubambezeleka kweminyaka emithathu nokungaqiniseki ngokuthi i-United States ingabe ihambisana nesivumelwane - ayibizwa ngokuthi ukunqotshwa kuphela ngoba kwakukhona ukukhula okusheshayo okwakuthiwa yimpumelelo. Ku-2007, i-United States ithumele amasosha engeziwe e-30,000 e-Iraq enezikhulu ezinkulu nomlawuli omusha, uGeneral David Petraeus. Ngakho ukukhula kwakungokoqobo, kodwa kuthiwani ngempumelelo yayo efanelwe?

I-Congress kanye noMongameli, amaqembu okucwaninga kanye namacanki acabanga ukuthi bonke babebeke "izilinganiso" okumele zilinganise impumelelo e-Iraq kusukela ku-2005. UMongameli kulindelwe yiCongress ukuhlangabezana nezilinganiso zayo ngoJanuwari 2007. Akazange ahlangane nabo ngaleso sikhathi esiphezulu, ekupheleni "kokugaya," noma ngesikhathi eshiya isikhundla ngoJanuwari 2009. Kwakungekho umthetho wamafutha ozohlomula izinkampani ezinkulu zamafutha, akukho mthetho we-de-baathification, ukubuyekezwa komthethosisekelo, futhi akukho ukhetho lwesifundazwe. Empeleni, kwakungekho ukuthuthukiswa kagesi, amanzi, noma ezinye izinyathelo eziyisisekelo zokuvuselela e-Iraq. "Ukukhuphuka" kwakuwukuqhubekisela phambili lezi "zilinganiso" nokudala "isikhala" ukuvumela ukubuyisana kwezombangazwe nokuzinza. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi lokho kuqondwa noma yiyo ikhodi yokulawulwa kwe-US yokubusa kwe-Iraq, ngisho nama-cheerleaders for the surge avuma ukuthi ayiphumelelanga inqubekela phambili yezombangazwe.

Isilinganiso sempumelelo se "surge" sancishiswa ngokushesha ukufaka into eyodwa kuphela: ukunciphisa udlame. Lokhu kwakulula, okokuqala ngoba kwasusa izinkumbulo zaseMelika noma yini enye okwakufanele ikwenze ukuhlinzwa, futhi okwesibili ngoba ukuhlinzwa kwakuhlangane ngenjabulo nenkambiso yokwehla yesikhathi eside ebudloveni. Ukukhuphuka bekukuncane ngokwedlulele, futhi umthelela wakho osheshayo kungenzeka ukuthi kube ukwanda kodlame. UBrian Katulis noLawrence Korb baveza ukuthi, “'Ukwanda' kwamasosha ase-US e-Iraq kwakungukunyuka okuncane nje okungaba ngamaphesenti ayi-15 - futhi kwaba kuncane uma umuntu ebheka inani elincishisiwe lamanye amabutho angaphandle, awe kusukela ku-15,000 ngo-2006 kuya kwabangu-5,000 2008 ngo-20,000. ” Ngakho-ke, sengeze inzuzo ephelele yamasosha ayi-30,000 XNUMX, hhayi ama-XNUMX.

Amasosha angeziwe e-Iraq ngoMeyi 2007, kanti ngoJuni noJulayi kwakuyizinyanga zasehlobo ezinamandla kunazo zonke empini kulo lonke lelo phuzu. Lapho ubudlova behla, kwakunezizathu zokunciphisa okungahambisani nalokho "ukuqhuma." Ukunciphisa kwahamba kancane kancane, futhi inqubekela phambili yayihlobene namazinga adlamezayo ebudloveni ekuqaleni kwe-2007. Ngokuwa kwe-2007 eBaghdad kwakukhona ukuhlaselwa kwe-20 ngosuku nosuku lwama-600 ababulawa ngodlame lwezombangazwe inyanga ngayinye, bengabalwa amasosha namaphoyisa. I-Iraqis yaqhubeka ikholelwa ukuthi izingxabano zazibangelwa kakhulu yi-US, futhi baqhubeka befuna ukuphela ngokushesha.

Ukuhlasela kwamabutho aseBrithani eBasra kwehla ngokuphawulekayo lapho abaseBrithani beka ukulandelela izindawo zendawo bese beya esikhumulweni sezindiza. Ayikho isidumbu esasihilelekile. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ngoba ubudlova obuningi bube buqhutshwa yilo msebenzi, ukubuyisela emuva umsebenzi okwenzekile kwaholela ekunciphiseni ubudlova.

Ukuhlaselwa kukaGerrilla esifundeni sase-al-Anbar sehlile ku-400 ngesonto ngoJulayi 2006 kuya ku-100 ngesonto ngoJulayi 2007, kodwa "ukuqhuma" e-al-Anbar kwakunebutho elisha le-2,000. Eqinisweni, enye into ichaza ukwehla kobudlova ku-al-Anbar. NgoJanuwari 2008, uMichael Schwartz wazama ukukhohlisa inkolelo yokuthi "ukuqhuma kuye kwaholela ekuqiniseni izingxenye ezinkulu ze-Anbar esifundazweni naseBaghdad." Nakhu akubhala:

“Ukuthula nokuzola kumane akuyona into efanayo, futhi nakanjani lokhu kuyinkinga yokwehla. Eqinisweni, ukwehliswa kodlame esilubonayo kungumphumela wokuthi i-US iyeke ukuhlasela kwayo ngesihluku endaweni yabavukeli, obekuyikho - kusukela ekuqaleni kwempi - umthombo omkhulu wobudlova kanye nokulimala kwabantu e-Iraq. Lokhu kugasela, okubandakanya ukungena emakhaya befuna abasolwa njengabavukeli, kubangela ukuboshwa ngesihluku nokuhlaselwa ngamasosha aseMelika akhathazekile ngokumelana, ukulwa ngezibhamu lapho imindeni imelana nokungena emakhaya abo, namabhomu asemigwaqeni asemgwaqeni abekelwe ukuvimba nokuphazamisa ukuhlasela . Noma nini lapho ama-Iraq elwa nalokhu kugasela, kuba nengozi yezimpi zezibhamu eziqhubekayo, zona ezenza ukuthi kube nezikhali zase-US kanye nokuhlaselwa komoya, nakho okucekela phansi izakhiwo ngisho namabhulokhi aphelele.

"I-'group 'yanciphise lolu dlova, kodwa hhayi ngoba ama-Iraq ayeke ukumelana nokuhlasela noma ukusekela ukuhlukunyezwa. Udlame luye lwahla emadolobheni amaningi ase-Anbar nasezindaweni zaseBaghdad ngoba i-US ivumile ukuyeka lezi zinhlupho; okungukuthi, i-US ngeke isakwazi ukuthola noma ukubulala abavukeli baseSunni abaye balwela iminyaka emine. Ngokubambisana labo abahlubukayo bayavuma ukuphoyisa izindawo zabo (okwakwenziwa ngaso sonke isikhathi, ngokumelene ne-US), futhi baphinde banqothule amabhomu emoto aseJahadist.

"Umphumela wukuthi amabutho ase-US manje ahlale ngaphandle kwemiphakathi yangaphambili yezinguquko, noma ahambe ngaphandle kokuhlasela noma yiziphi izindlu noma ahlasele noma yiziphi izakhiwo.

"Ngakho-ke, kuyaphawuleka ukuthi le mpumelelo entsha ayizange iqinise imiphakathi, kepha kunalokho yavuma ukuthi ubuholi bezombusazwe phezu kwemiphakathi, futhi yabanika nokukhokha kanye nemishini yokusekela nokwandisa ukulawula kwabo emiphakathini."

Ekugcineni ama-United States enza okuhle kakhulu kunokunciphisa ukuhlasela kwawo emakhaya abantu. Kwakukukhulumisana nenhloso yayo, ngokushesha noma kamuva, ukuphuma ezweni. Ukunyakaza kokuthula e-United States kwakhiwe ukwesekwa okuqhubekayo e-Congress ngokuhoxiswa phakathi kwe-2005 ne-2008. Ikhetho le-2006 lathumela umlayezo ocacile e-Iraq ukuthi amaMelika ayefuna ukuphuma. Ama-Iraqi kungenzeka ukuthi alalele ngokucophelela lowo mlayezo kunamalungu e-US Congress ngokwabo. Ngisho ne-pro-impi ye-Iraq Study Group e-2006 isekela ukuhoxiswa kancane kancane. UBrian Katulis noLawrence Korb bathi,

". . . isigijimi sokuthi ukuzibophezela kweMelika e-Iraq kwakungeyona ingcindezi evulekile evulekile efana ne-Sunni Awakenings esifundazweni sase-Anbar ukuze ihlanganyele ne-US ukulwa ne-Al Qaeda ku-2006, ukunyakaza okwaqala isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba i-2007 iqhume amabutho ase-US. Umlayezo wokuthi abaseMelika bashiya nabo bavusa ama-Iraqs ukuba abhalisele amabutho ezokuphepha kuleli zwe. "

Ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba 2005, abaholi bamaqembu amakhulu aseSunni bahlomile bafuna ukuxoxisana nokuthula ne-United States, engenasithakazelo.

Ukwehla okukhulu kobudlova kwafika ekuzinikeleni kwe-2008 ekupheleni kuka-Bush ukuhoxisa ngokugcwele ekupheleni kwe-2011, futhi udlame lwaba ngaphezulu ngemva kokuhoxiswa kwamandla ase-US emadolobheni asehlobo le-2009. Akukho lutho olususa impi efana nokwehlisa impi. Ukuthi lokhu kungahle kuguqulwe njengokukhula kwempi kusho okuthile mayelana nesistimu yokuxhumana yomphakathi yase-United States, lapho sizophendulela esahlukweni leshumi.

Esinye isizathu esiyinhloko sokunciphisa ubudlova, okungahambisani nalokho "ukuqhuma," kwakuyisinqumo sikaMoqtada al-Sadr, umholi wezinyunyana ezinkulu zokumelana, ukuze enze umkhankaso wokuqeda ukushaywa komlilo. Njengoba uGareth Porter ebika,

"Ngasekupheleni kwe-2007, okungahambisani ne-legend esemthethweni yase-Iraq, uhulumeni wase-al-Maliki nohulumeni wase Bush bashintsha u-Iran ngokucindezela uSadr ukuthi bavumelane nokuqeda ukuqhuma komunye umfelandawonye - ukuhlaselwa kukaPetraeus. . . . Ngakho kwakuyisivimbelo se-Iran - hhayi isu likaPetraeus lokuqapha amandla - lokho kwaqeda ngempumelelo usongo lwabaShi'a. "

Omunye amandla amakhulu okunciphisa ubudlova base-Iraqi kwakuhlinzekwa ngezinkokhelo zezimali kanye nezikhali ku-Sunni "Imihlangano Ephakamisa Amandla" - isenzo sesikhashana sokubamba izingubo nokufumbathisa i-80,000 Sunnis, iningi lawo bantu abanjalo ababesanda kuhlasela amabutho ase-US. Ngokombiko wezintatheli uNir Rosen, umholi weyodwa yamabutho e-United States "uvuma ngokukhululekile ukuthi amanye amadoda akhe ayese-Al Qaeda. Bajoyina amabutho aseMelika, ax sa [id], ngakho-ke bangaba nekhadi lokuzimela uma beboshwa. "

I-United States ikhokha uSunn ukulwa namabutho aseShiite ngenkathi ivumela amaphoyisa aseShiite aphethwe ukugxila ezindaweni zaseSunni. Leli qhinga lokuhlukanisa nokuqeda kwakungeyona indlela ethembekile yokuzinza. Futhi ku-2010, ngesikhathi salokhu kubhala, ukuzinza kwakungabonakali, uhulumeni wayengakaze akhiwe, izilinganiso azizange zihlangane futhi zikhohliwe kakhulu, ukulondeka kwakuyingozi kakhulu, futhi ubudlova obuhlanga nobudlova base-United States babusakazeke. Phakathi naleso sikhathi amanzi nogesi babengekho, futhi izigidi zababaleki zahluleka ukubuyela emakhaya abo.

Phakathi nesikhathi "sokuqhuma" e-2007, amabutho ase-US ahlanganisa futhi afaka amashumi ezinkulungwane zamadoda angamadoda empi. Uma ungakwazi ukushaya 'em, futhi awukwazi ukufumbathisa' em, ungafaka 'em ngemuva kwezingodo. Lokhu ngokuqinisekile kwafaka isandla ekwehliseni ubudlova.

Kodwa imbangela enkulu yokwehla kobudlova ingase ibe yimbi kakhulu futhi encane ikhulume ngayo. Phakathi kukaJanuwari 2007 noJulayi 2007 idolobha laseBaghdad lishintshe kusukela kumaphesenti angu-65 eShiite kuya ku-75 amaphesenti amaShiite. Ukuvotelwa kwe-UN ku-2007 kwababaleki base-Iraq eSiriya bathola ukuthi amaphesenti angu-78 avela eBaghdad, futhi ababaleki abangaba yisigidi basuke behambele eSiriya kuphela e-Iraq ngo-2007 yedwa. Njengoba uJuan Cole ebhala ngoDisemba 2007,

". . . le datha ibonisa ukuthi ngaphezu kwe-700,000 izakhamuzi zaseBaghdad sezibalekele leli dolobha lezigidi ezingu-6 ngesikhathi kuqhutshwa i-US ',' noma ngaphezulu kwezingu-10 ezingxenyeni zabantu. Phakathi kwemiphumela eyinhloko 'yokuqhubekela phambili' bekuwukuthi iBaghdad iphenduke edolobheni elikhulu laseShiite futhi lichithe amakhulu ezinkulungwane zama-Iraq asezindaweni ezinkulu. "

Isiphetho sikaCole sisekelwa yizifundo zokukhishwa okuncane okuvela ezindaweni eziseBaghdad. Izindawo zamaSunni zaba mnyama ngesikhathi izakhamizi zazo zibulawa noma zikhishwa, okuyinqubo eyaqonga kakhulu ngaphambi “kokuqubuka” (ngoDisemba 2006 - Januwari 2007). NgoMashi 2007,

". . . abaningi baseSunni base bebalekela esifundeni sase-Anbar, eSiriya naseJordani, kanti abanye basala ezindaweni eziqinile zakwaSunni entshonalanga yeBaghdad nasezingxenyeni zase-Adhamiyya empumalanga yeBaghdad. I-Shia inqobile, isezandleni, futhi ukulwa sekuphelile. "

Ekuqaleni kwe-2008, uNir Rosen wabhala ngemibandela e-Iraq ngasekupheleni kwe-2007:

"Usuku olubandayo, olumpunga ngoDisemba, futhi ngihamba ngaphansi kweSittieth Street esifundeni saseDora saseBaghdad, esinye sezidakamizwa nezesabekayo ezingxenyeni ezingekho emadolobheni. Njengoba idutshulwe iminyaka emihlanu yokuxabana phakathi kwamabutho aseMelika, amabutho aseShiite, amaqembu okulwela amaSunni ne-Al Qaeda, iningi lakwaDora manje liyidolobha elibi. Yilokhu okushiwo ukuthi 'ukunqoba' kubonakala endaweni yase-Iraq yase-once upscale: Udoti lwamanzi nolwandle lugcwalisa imigwaqo. Izintaba zemfucumfucu ziqhuma emanzini amancane. Iningi lamafasitela ezindlini ezinemibala ekhanda liphukile, futhi umoya uphuthuma kubo, ukushaya ngekhwelo nge-eerily.

"Indlu ngemva kwendlu ishiyiwe, izimbobo zezinhlamvu ezibeka izindonga zazo emasangweni, iminyango yabo ivulekile futhi ingavaliwe, ifenisha enkulu. Yimiphi imishini embalwa ehlala ihlanganiswa nobuningi obukhulu obuthuli oluhlasela yonke indawo e-Iraq. Ukufika phezu kwamakhaya kukhona izindonga zokuphepha eziphakeme eziyishumi nambili ezakhiwe yiMelika ukuba zihlukanise amaqembu aphikisayo futhi zifake abantu endaweni yabo. Ukuqothulwa nokuqothulwa yimpi yombango, ovalwe nguMengameli uBush Bush, "u-Dora uzizwa efana nenhlanhla eyincithakalo, engemva kokuphefumula yamathrekhi okhonkolo kunendawo yokuhlala ehlala kuyo. Ngaphandle kwezinyathelo zethu, kukhona ukuthula okuphelele. "

Lokhu akuchazi indawo lapho abantu babe khona ukuthula. Kule ndawo abantu base befile noma bahamba. Amaphoyisa ase-US "agxumeke" asetshenziselwa ukususa izakhamuzi ezisanda kuhlukaniswa. Amaphoyisa aseSunni "avuse" futhi ahambisana nalabo abahlala khona, ngoba amaShiites aseduze ukuwabhubhisa ngokuphelele.

Ngo-March 2009 awakening fighters babuyele ekulweni nabaseMelika, kodwa ngaleso sikhathi inkolelo-mbono yayisunguliwe. Ngalesosikhathi, uBarack Obama wayengumongameli, ebhala njengomuntu ozobhalwa ukuthi ukuqhuma kwakhe "kwaphumelela ngaphezu kwamaphupho ethu amakhulu kakhulu." Inkolelo-mbumbulu yasheshe yafakwa ekusetshenzisweni okungakazeki ukuthi yenzelwe - ukuqondisa ukukhula kwamanye izimpi. Ngemva kokuthola ukuhlukunyezwa e-Iraq njengokunqoba, sekuyisikhathi sokudlulisela ukukhwabanisa kwe-propaganda e-War on Afghanistan. U-Obama wabeka iqhawe lokugunda, uPerraeus, owayengamele e-Afghanistan futhi wamnika isibhamu esikhulu.

Kodwa ayikho imbangela yangempela yokunciphisa ubudlova e-Iraq ekhona e-Afghanistan, futhi ukukhula ngokweqile kungase kwenze izinto zibe zimbi nakakhulu. Ngokuqinisekile lokho kwakuyinto elandela ukukhula kuka-Obama kwe-2009 e-Afghanistan futhi kungenzeka ukuthi i-2010. Kuhle ukucabanga ngenye indlela. Kuyinto enhle ukucabanga ukuthi ukuzinikezela nokukhuthazela kuzokwenza ukuthi imbangela efanele iphumelele. Kodwa impi akuyona imbangela nje, impumelelo kuyo akufanele iqhutshwe ngisho noma i-plausibly itholakala, futhi ngohlobo lwezimpi esiluthola manje umqondo we "impumelelo" akenzi lutho nakancane.