Ngu-Hyun Lee, Ngaphandle, Disemba 29, 2020
Kwaphela amashumi eminyaka, abenzi bezinqubomgomo zase-US babuze, "Senza kanjani ukuthi iNorth Korea ishiye izikhali zenuzi?" futhi ngize ngilambatha. Njengoba abaphathi beBiden balungiselela ukungena esikhundleni, mhlawumbe sekuyisikhathi sokubuza umbuzo ohlukile: "Siba nokuthula kanjani neNyakatho Korea?"
Nayi inkinga ebhekene neWashington. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-US ayifuni ukuvumela iNorth Korea ukuthi ibe nezikhali zenuzi ngoba lokho kungakhuthaza amanye amazwe ukuthi enze okufanayo. (IWashington isivele imatasa izama ukumisa isifiso senuzi sase-Iran, kuyilapho inani elikhulayo lamazwi alandelanayo eJapan naseSouth Korea nawo efuna ukuthola izinduna zawo.)
I-US izamile ukwenza iNorth Korea ukuthi inikele ngezikhali zayo zenuzi ngokucindezela nangoswidi, kepha leyo ndlela ibuyisele emuva, yenza kwaba nzima ukuzimisela kukaPyongyang ukucija ubuchwepheshe bayo benuzi nemicibisholo. INorth Korea ithi okuwukuphela kwendlela ezodela ngayo izikhali zayo zenuzi uma i-US "ishiya inqubomgomo yayo enobutha," - ngamanye amazwi, ithatha izinyathelo eziphindayo zokunciphisa izingalo - kepha kuze kube manje, iWashington ayikenzi mnyakazo futhi ayibonisanga nhloso ukuqhubekela kulowo mgomo. Eqinisweni, ukuphatha kukaTrump kwaqhubeka yenza izivivinyo zempi ezihlangene neSouth Korea kanye ukuphoqelelwa okuqinisiwe ngezijeziso ezibhekiswe eNyakatho Korea naphezu kwayo ukuzibophezela eSingapore ukwenza ukuthula noPyongyang.
Faka uJoe Biden. Ithimba lakhe lizoyixazulula kanjani le nkinga? Ukuphinda indlela efanayo ehlulekile futhi ulindele umphumela ohlukile kungaba - kuhle, uyazi ukuthi isisho sihamba kanjani.
Abeluleki bakaBiden bayavumelana ngokuthi indlela kaTrump yokuphatha "konke noma lutho" - efuna ngaphambili ukuthi iNorth Korea inikele ngazo zonke izikhali zayo - yehlulekile. Esikhundleni salokho, bancoma “indlela yokulawula izingalo”: okokuqala kuqandisa ukusebenza kwe-plutonium ne-uranium yaseNyakatho Korea bese kuthathwa izinyathelo ezengeziwe zokufinyelela enhlosweni yokugcina yenuclearization ephelele.
Le yindlela ekhethwe ngunobhala wezwe oqokiwe u-Anthony Blinken, okhuthaza isivumelwano sesikhashana sokuthwebula izikhali zenuzi zaseNyakatho Korea ukuze kuthengwe isikhathi sokwenza isivumelwano sesikhathi eside. Uthi kufanele sifake ababambisene neChina esikebheni ukucindezela iNorth Korea: “cindezela iNorth Korea ukuyifaka etafuleni lezingxoxo. ” "Sidinga ukunquma izindlela zayo ezahlukahlukene nokufinyelela kwizinsizakusebenza," esho, futhi unxusa ukutshela amazwe anezisebenzi zezivakashi zaseNyakatho Korea ukuthi ababuyisele emakhaya. Uma iChina ingabambisani, uBlinken uphakamisa ukuthi i-US iyisongele ngokuzivikela kwemishini yamasosha eqhutshelwa phambili nokuzivocavoca kwezempi.
Isiphakamiso sikaBlinken sihluke kakhulu kunendlela ehlulekile yesikhathi esedlule. Kusengumgomo wengcindezi nokuhlukaniswa nabantu ukuze ufinyelele enhlosweni enkulu yokuqothula izikhali eNyakatho Korea unilaterally - umehluko kuphela ukuthi abaphathi beBiden bazimisele ukuthatha isikhathi esithe xaxa ukufika lapho. Kulokhu, kungenzeka ukuthi iNyakatho Korea izoqhubeka nokuqhubekela phambili izikhali zayo zenuzi kanye namandla emicibisholo. Ngaphandle kokuthi i-US ishintshe kakhulu isikhundla sayo, ukungezwani okuvuselelekile phakathi kwe-US neNyakatho Korea akunakugwemeka.
Esikhundleni sokugxila ekutheni ungenza kanjani ukuthi iNorth Korea iyeke izikhulu zayo, ukubuza ukuthi kungafinyelelwa kanjani ukuthula okuhlala njalo eKorea kungaholela ezimpendweni ezihlukile futhi ezibaluleke kakhulu. Wonke amaqembu - hhayi iNorth Korea kuphela - anesibopho sokuthatha izinyathelo zokunciphisa izingalo.
Ngemuva kwakho konke, i-US isenamasosha angama-28,000 eSouth Korea, futhi kuze kube muva nje, ibiqhuba njalo izivivinyo ezinkulu zempi ezibandakanya nezinhlelo zeziteleka zokuqala eNyakatho Korea. Ukuzivivinya kwempi edlule ngokuhlanganyela kubandakanye amabhomu ezindiza e-B-2, aklanyelwe ukulahla amabhomu enuzi futhi abiza abakhokhi bentela base-US cishe amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-130,000 ngehora ukundiza. Yize i-US kanye neSouth Korea behlise umkhuba wabo wokuzivocavoca kusukela engqungqutheleni kaTrump-Kim ngo-2018, uMkhuzi Wamasosha aseMelika uKorea, uGen.Robert B. Abrams, esibizwa ukuqala kabusha kwemishini emikhulu yempi ehlanganisiwe.
Uma abaphathi beBiden beqhubekela phambili ngempi yempi ngoMashi olandelayo, bekungavuselela ukungezwani kwezempi okuyingozi ePeninsula yaseKorea futhi kulimaze noma yiliphi ithuba lokuzibandakanya kwezokuxhumana neNorth Korea kungekudala.
Ungathola Kanjani Ukuthula Esihlonhlweni SaseKorea
Ukwehlisa usongo lwempi yenuzi neNyakatho Korea nokugcina inketho yokuqalisa izingxoxo ngokuzayo, abaphathi beBiden bangenza izinto ezimbili ezinsukwini zayo zokuqala eziyi-100: eyodwa, baqhubeke nokumiswa kwempi enkulu ehlangene yase-US-South Korea ukubhola; futhi okubili, qala ukubuyekezwa ngamasu kwenqubomgomo yayo yaseNyakatho Korea eqala ngombuzo othi, "Sithola kanjani ukuthula okuhlala njalo eNhlonhlweni YaseKorea?"
Ingxenye ebalulekile yokusungula ukuthula unomphela ukuqeda iMpi YaseKorea, nayo yahlala ingaxazululeki iminyaka engama-70, nokufaka esikhundleni se-armistice (ukumiswa isikhashana kwesikhashana) ngesivumelwano sokuthula saphakade. Yilokhu abaholi ababili baseKorea abavumelene ukukwenza engqungqutheleni yabo yasePanmunjom engowezi-2018, kanti lo mbono usekelwa ngamalungu angama-52 e-US Congress axhasa i-House Resolution 152, efuna kuphele ngokusemthethweni iMpi yaseKorea. Iminyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa yempi engaxazululiwe ayigcinanga ngokwandisa umjaho wezikhali ongapheli phakathi kwamaqembu asempini, futhi idale nomngcele ongenakunqobeka phakathi kwamaKorea amabili ogcine izigidi zemindeni zihlukene. Isivumelwano sokuthula esibophezela wonke amaqembu enkambisweni ehamba kancane yokubeka phansi izikhali kuzodala izimo ezinokuthula zokuthi bobabili abaseKorea baqhubeke nokubambisana futhi bahlanganise imindeni ehlukene.
Abantu abaningi e-US bacabanga ukuthi iNorth Korea ayikufuni ukuthula, kepha uma ubheka emuva ezitatimendeni zayo ezedlule iveze okwehlukile. Isibonelo, kulandela iMpi YaseKorea, eyaphela ngo-1953, i-North Korea yayiyingxenye yeNgqungquthela yaseGeneva, eyayihlanganiswe yi-Four Powers - i-United States, i-USSR yangaphambili, i-United Kingdom neFrance - ukuxoxa ngekusasa waseKorea. Ngokombiko owehlisiwe wethimba laseMelika, uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseNyakatho Korea ngaleso sikhathi uNam Il wathi kule ngqungquthela "Umsebenzi omkhulu ukufeza ubumbano lwaseKorea ngokuguqula [umbutho] wezempi ube ukuhlanganisa okuhlala njalo ngokuthula [kwe] Korea ngemigomo yentando yeningi." Usole i-US “ngemithwalo yemfanelo esehlakalweni seKorea kanjalo nokubamba ukhetho oluhlukile ngaphansi 'kwengcindezi yamaphoyisa.'” (Amaphoyisa ase-US uDean Rusk noCharles Bonesteel babehlukanise iKorea ngomugqa wama-38 ngo-1945 ngaphandle kokubonisana nabantu baseKorea, kanye Izwe laseMelika laliphokophele ukuthi kube nokhetho olwehlukile eningizimu yize iningi lamaKorea lalifisa ukuba neKorea ebumbene, ezimele.) Noma kunjalo, uNam uqhubeke, "impi ka-1953 manje yavula [indlela] yobunye obunokuthula." Wancoma ukuthi kuhoxiswe wonke amabutho angaphandle ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kanye "nesivumelwano mayelana nokhetho lwazo zonke-Korea ukusungula uhulumeni omele izwe lonke."
Ngeshwa iNgqungquthela yaseGeneva yaphela ngaphandle kwesivumelwano ngeKorea, ngenxa enkulu ingxenye yokuphikisana kweMelika nesiphakamiso sikaNam. Ngenxa yalokho, iDemilitarised Zone (DMZ) phakathi kwamaKorea yaqina yaba umngcele wamazwe omhlaba.
Isimo esiyisisekelo seNyakatho Korea - sokuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwezikhali kufanele sithathelwe indawo yisivumelwano sokuthula "esivula indlela yobunye obunokuthula" - besingaguquguquki eminyakeni engama-70 edlule. Yilokho iSupreme People's Assembly yaseNyakatho Korea yaphakamisa iSenate yase-US emuva ngonyaka we-1974. Yilokho okwakuqukethwe encwadini yaseNyakatho Korea eyethulwa yilowo owayengumholi weSoviet Union uMikhail Gorbachev eya kuMongameli wase-US uRonald Reagan engqungqutheleni yabo eyayiseWashington ngo-1987. lokho abantu baseNyakatho Korea abakuveze kaningi ezingxoxweni zabo zenuzi nabaphathi bakaBill Clinton noGeorge W. Bush.
Abaphathi beBiden kufanele babheke emuva - futhi bazazise - izivumelwano i-US esezisayine neNorth Korea. I-US-DPRK Joint Communique (esayinwe ngabaphathi bakaClinton ngo-2000), iSitatimende Sezinhlangano Eziyisithupha (esasayinwa ngabaphathi bakaBush ngo-2005) kanye neSitatimende Somhlangano SaseSingapore (esisayinwe nguMongameli Trump ngo-2018) zonke zinemigomo emithathu efanayo : ukusungula ubudlelwano obujwayelekile, ukwakha umbuso wokuthula unomphela ePeninsula yaseKorea bese wenza i-Peninsula yaseKorea inyukliya. Iqembu leBiden lidinga ibalazwe lomgwaqo elichaza ngokusobala ubudlelwano phakathi kwalezi zinhloso ezintathu ezibalulekile.
Ukuphathwa kweBiden impela kubhekene nezinkinga eziningi ezicindezelayo ezizodinga ukubhekelwa ngokushesha, kepha ukuqinisekisa ukuthi ubudlelwano be-US-North Korea abubuyeli emuva ebuchosheni obasiletha emaphethelweni enzonzobila yenuzi ngo-2017 kufanele kube yinto ephambili.
