Impi yase-Ukraine ibukwe kuGlobal South

NguKrishen Mehta, Ikomidi laseMelika leSivumelwano se-US-Russia, Februwari 23, i-2023

Ngo-Okthoba 2022, cishe izinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili kuqale impi e-Ukraine, iNyuvesi yaseCambridge e-UK yavumelanisa ukuhlola okwabuza izakhamuzi zamazwe angu-137 ngemibono yazo ngezwe laseNtshonalanga, eRussia naseChina. Okutholakele ku isifundo esihlanganisiwe ziqine ngokwanele ukuthi zifuna ukunakwa kwethu.

• Kubantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-6.3 abahlala ngaphandle kwamazwe aseNtshonalanga, ama-66% azizwa enethemba ngeRussia, kanti ama-70% azizwa enethemba ngeChina.

• U-75% wabaphenduli eNingizimu ye-Asia, u-68% wabaphenduli  e-Francophone Africa, kanye no-62% wabaphenduli eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia babika ukuthi bazizwa benethemba nge-Russia.

• Umbono womphakathi ngeRussia uhlala ulungile eSaudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, naseVietnam.

Lokhu okutholakele kuye kwabangela ukumangala ngisho nentukuthelo emazweni aseNtshonalanga. Kunzima kubaholi bemicabango yaseNtshonalanga ukuqonda ukuthi izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zabantu bomhlaba azihlangani namazwe aseNtshonalanga kule ngxabano. Nokho, ngikholwa ukuthi kunezizathu ezinhlanu zokuthi kungani iGlobal South ingathathi uhlangothi lwaseNtshonalanga. Ngixoxa ngalezi zizathu endabeni emfushane engezansi.

1. IGlobal South ayikholelwa ukuthi iNtshonalanga iyayiqonda noma iyazwelana nezinkinga zayo.

Ungqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseNdiya, uS. Jaishankar, wakufingqa kafushane enkulumweni yamuva: “IYurophu kufanele ikhule emqondweni wokuthi izinkinga zaseYurophu ziyizinkinga zomhlaba, kodwa izinkinga zomhlaba azizona izinkinga zaseYurophu.” Amazwe asathuthuka abhekana nezinselele eziningi, kusukela ngemva kwalolu bhubhane, izindleko eziphezulu zezikweletu, kanye nenkinga yesimo sezulu ecekela phansi indawo ezungezile, kuya ebuhlungwini bobumpofu, ukusweleka kokudla, isomiso, kanye namanani aphezulu kagesi. Nokho amazwe aseNtshonalanga awakaze akhulume ngomlomo ngobucayi beningi lalezi zinkinga, nakuba igcizelela ukuthi iGlobal South ijoyine yona ekujeziseni iRussia.

Umqedazwe we-Covid uyisibonelo esiphelele. Ngaphandle kokunxusa okuphindaphindiwe kwe-Global South ukuthi yabelane ngempahla yengqondo emithini yokugoma ngenhloso yokusindisa izimpilo, asikho isizwe saseNtshonalanga esizimisele ukwenza lokho. I-Afrika isalokhu iyizwekazi elingagonyiwe kunawo wonke emhlabeni kuze kube namuhla. Amazwe ase-Afrika anamandla okukhiqiza okwenza imigomo, kodwa ngaphandle kwempahla yengqondo edingekayo, ahlala encike ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe.

Kodwa usizo lwavela eRussia, eChina naseNdiya. I-Algeria yethule uhlelo lokugoma ngoJanuwari 2021 ngemuva kokuthi ithole iqoqo layo lokuqala lemithi yokugomela iSputnik V yaseRussia. I-Egypt yaqala ukugoma ngemva kokuthola umgomo we-Sinopharm waseChina cishe ngesikhathi esifanayo, kuyilapho iNingizimu Afrika yathenga imithamo eyisigidi ye-AstraZeneca e-Serum Institute of India. E-Argentina, i-Sputnik yaba umgogodla wohlelo lukazwelonke lokugoma. Konke lokhu kwenzeka ngenkathi iNtshonalanga isebenzisa imithombo yayo yezezimali ukuthenga izigidi zemithamo kusengaphambili, bese ivame ukuyibhubhisa lapho isiphelelwe yisikhathi. Umlayezo oya eGlobal South wawucacile - ubhubhane emazweni akho inkinga yakho, hhayi eyethu.

2. Izindaba zomlando: obani ababemi kuphi ngesikhathi sobukoloni nangemuva kwenkululeko?

Amazwe amaningi aseLatin America, e-Afrika, nase-Asia abheka impi yase-Ukraine ngenye indlela kunaseNtshonalanga. Babona amandla abo angaphambili angamakoloni ehlanganiswa kabusha njengamalungu ombimbi lwaseNtshonalanga. Lo mfelandawonye - ingxenye enkulu, amalungu e-European Union kanye ne-NATO noma abasondelene kakhulu base-US esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific - bakha amazwe agunyaze iRussia. Ngokuphambene, amazwe amaningi e-Asia, cishe nawo wonke amazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi, e-Afrika, naseLatin America, aye azama ukuhlala ezwana. kokubili I-Russia kanye neNtshonalanga, igwema unswinyo olubhekiswe eRussia. Kungenzeka yini ukuthi lokhu kungenxa yokuthi bakhumbula umlando wabo ngesikhathi besamukela imigomo yobukoloni baseNtshonalanga, ukuhlukumezeka abasaphila nakho kodwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga abesekukhohliwe kakhulu?

UNelson Mandela wayevame ukusho ukuthi ukusekelwa yiSoviet Union, kokubili kokuziphatha kanye nezinto ezibonakalayo, okwasiza ukukhuthaza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuketula umbuso wobandlululo. Ngenxa yalokhu, iRussia isabhekwa njengento enhle emazweni amaningi ase-Afrika. Futhi lapho lamazwe esethole inkululeko, kwaba yiSoviet Union eyawasekela, naphezu kwemithombo yawo elinganiselwe. Idamu lase-Egypt i-Aswan, elaqedwa ngo-1971, laklanywa i-Hydro Project Institute ezinze eMoscow futhi ingxenye enkulu yalo yaxhaswa yiSoviet Union. I-Bhilai Steel Plant, enye yemiklamo yokuqala emikhulu yengqalasizinda e-India esanda kuzimela, yasungulwa yi-USSR ngo-1959.

Amanye amazwe nawo ahlomula ekusekelweni kwezombangazwe nezomnotho okwanikezwa izwe elaliyiSoviet Union, kuhlanganise iGhana, iMali, iSudan, i-Angola, iBenin, i-Ethiopia, i-Uganda neMozambique. Ngo-February 18, 2023, eNgqungqutheleni Yenhlangano Yezizwe Zase-Afrika e-Addis Ababa, e-Ethiopia, ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle wase-Uganda, u-Jeje Odongo, wathi: “Sathathwa njengamakoloni futhi sabaxolela labo ababesikoloni. Manje amakoloni asesicela ukuba sibe yizitha zeRussia, ezingazange zisenze amakoloni. Ingabe lokho kulungile? Hhayi okwethu. Izitha zabo ziyizitha zabo. Abangane bethu bangabangane bethu.”

Ngokufanelekile noma ngokungalungile, iRussia yanamuhla ibonwa amazwe amaningi eGlobal South njengomlandeli wombono wezwe elaliyiSoviet Union. Belukhumbula ngothando usizo lwe-USSR, manje sebebheka iRussia ngendlela eyingqayizivele futhi evame ukuthandeka. Uma sibheka umlando obuhlungu wobukoloni, singabasola?

3. Impi yase-Ukraine ibonwa yi-Global South njengemayelana nekusasa laseYurophu kunekusasa lomhlaba wonke.

Umlando weMpi Yomshoshaphansi uye wafundisa amazwe asathuthuka ukuthi ukuhileleka ezingxabanweni ezinkulu zokuphatha kunezingozi ezinkulu kodwa kubuyisela imivuzo emincane, uma ikhona. Ngenxa yalokho, babheka impi yommeleli we-Ukraine njengenye emayelana nekusasa lokuphepha laseYurophu kunekusasa lomhlaba wonke. Ngokombono weGlobal South, impi yase-Ukraine ibonakala iyisiphazamiso esibizayo ezindabeni zayo ezicindezela kakhulu. Lokhu kuhlanganisa amanani entengo kaphethiloli aphakeme, amanani okudla akhuphukayo, izindleko zesevisi yezikweletu eziphakeme, kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okwengeziwe, konke lokho unswinyo lwamazwe aseNtshonalanga olubhekiswe eRussia luye lwaba lubi kakhulu.

Ucwaningo lwakamuva olushicilelwe ngabe-Nature Energy luthi abantu abangafika ezigidini ezingu-140 bangase bangene ebumpofu obudlulele ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kagesi abonakale ngonyaka odlule. Izintengo zamandla aphezulu azithinti ngokuqondile izikweletu zamandla kuphela - ziphinde ziholele ekuncindezelweni kwentengo ekhuphukayo ngokuhambisana namaketango wokuhlinzeka futhi ekugcineni ezintweni zabathengi, okuhlanganisa ukudla nezinye izidingo. Lokhu kwehla kwamandla emali kuzo zonke izindawo kulimaza amazwe asathuthuka kakhulu kunaseNtshonalanga.

INtshonalanga ingayisekela impi “inqobo nje uma ithatha.” Banemithombo yezimali kanye nezimakethe ezinkulu zokwenza lokho, futhi vele bahlala betshalwe ngokujulile ekusaseni lezokuphepha zaseYurophu. Kodwa iGlobal South ayinakho ukunethezeka okufanayo, futhi impi yekusasa lezokuphepha eYurophu inamandla okucekela phansi ukuphepha komhlaba wonke. IGlobal South yethukile ukuthi iNtshonalanga ayizilandeli izingxoxo ezingase zisheshe ziqede le mpi, ziqale ngethuba eliphuthiwe ngoDisemba 2021, lapho iRussia iphakamisa izivumelwano zokuphepha ezibuyekeziwe zase-Europe ebezingavimba impi kodwa zenqatshwa eNtshonalanga. Izingxoxo zokuthula zango-Ephreli 2022 e-Istanbul nazo zenqatshwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga ngokwengxenye ukuze "zenze buthaka" iRussia. Manje, umhlaba wonke - kodwa ikakhulukazi amazwe asathuthuka - ukhokha inani lokuhlasela abezindaba baseNtshonalanga abathanda ukukubiza ngokuthi "okungacatshangelwa" kodwa okungenzeka ukuthi bekugwenywe, futhi iGlobal South ehlale ikubona njengokwendawo kunokuba ingxabano yamazwe ngamazwe.

4. Umnotho womhlaba awusabuswa yiMelika noma uholwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga. I-Global South manje inezinye izinketho.

Amazwe amaningana eGlobal South aya ngokuya ebona ikusasa lawo liboshelwe emazweni angasekho emkhakheni waseNtshonalanga. Ukuthi lo mbono ubonisa umbono onembile webhalansi eguqukayo yamandla noma isifiso sokucabanga ngokwengxenye kuwumbuzo osebenza kanzima, ngakho-ke ake sibheke amamethrikhi athile.

Isabelo se-US somkhiqizo womhlaba wonke sehle sisuka kumaphesenti angama-21 ngo-1991 saya kumaphesenti ayi-15 ngo-2021, kanti isabelo saseChina sikhuphuke sisuka ku-4% saya ku-19% ngesikhathi esifanayo. I-China inguzakwethu omkhulu wokuhweba emhlabeni wonke, futhi i-GDP yayo ekuthengeni amandla okulingana isivele idlula elase-US. I-BRICS (i-BRICS (i-Brazil, i-Russia, i-China, i-India kanye neNingizimu Afrika) ibe ne-GDP ehlangene ngo-2021 yama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-42, uma kuqhathaniswa no-$41 wezigidigidi ku-G7 eholwa yi-US. Inani labo labantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.2 lingaphezu kokuphindwe ka-4.5 inani labantu bamazwe e-G7 ehlangene, elimi ezigidini ezingu-700.

I-BRICS ayibeki unswinyo eRussia futhi ayinikezi izikhali ohlangothini oluphikisayo. I-Russia ingomunye wabahlinzeki abakhulu kakhulu bamandla nokudla okusanhlamvu e-Global South, kanti i-China's Belt and Road Initiative isalokhu ingumnikezeli omkhulu wezimali kanye nemiklamo yengqalasizinda. Uma kukhulunywa ngezimali, ukudla, amandla kanye nengqalasizinda, iGlobal South kumele ithembele kakhulu eShayina naseRussia ukwedlula eNtshonalanga. IGlobal South nayo ibona i-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ikhula, amazwe amaningi efuna ukujoyina i-BRICS, kanti amanye amazwe manje ahweba ngemali ewasusa edola, i-Euro, noma iNtshonalanga. Ngaleso sikhathi, amanye amazwe ase-Europe asengozini yokuhoxiswa kwezimboni ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu zamandla. Lokhu kuveza ukuba sengozini kwezomnotho emazweni aseNtshonalanga okwakungabonakali kangako ngaphambi kwempi. Njengoba amazwe asathuthuka enesibopho sokubeka izithakazelo zezakhamuzi zawo kuqala, ingabe kuyamangaza ukuthi ikusasa lawo liboshelwe ngokwengeziwe namazwe angaphandle kwaseNtshonalanga?

5. “Uhlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe olusekelwe emithethweni” lulahlekelwa ukwethembeka futhi luyancipha.

“Ukuhleleka kwamazwe ngamazwe okusekelwe emithethweni” kuyisivikelo senkululeko yangemva kweMpi Yezwe II, kodwa amazwe amaningi e-Global South akubona njengokuqanjwa ngamazwe aseNtshonalanga futhi kwaphoqelelwa ngokuhlanganyela kwamanye amazwe. Ambalwa uma kukhona amazwe angewona awaseNtshonalanga ake asayina leli oda. INingizimu ayiphikisani nesimiso esisekelwe emithethweni, kodwa kunalokho okuqukethwe kwamanje kwale mithetho njengoba kwaqanjwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga.

Kodwa umuntu kumele abuze futhi, ingabe i-oda lamazwe ngamazwe elisekelwe emithethweni lisebenza ngisho naseNtshonalanga?

Sekungamashumi eminyaka manje, abaningi eGlobal South babone iNtshonalanga njengenendlela yayo nomhlaba ngaphandle kokukhathazeka okuningi ngokudlala ngemithetho. Amazwe amaningana ahlaselwa ngokuthanda kwawo, ikakhulukazi ngaphandle kwemvume yoMkhandlu Wezokuphepha WeZizwe Ezihlangene. Lezi zihlanganisa izwe elaliyiYugoslavia, i-Iraq, i-Afghanistan, iLibya neSiriya. Yimiphi “imithetho” lawo mazwe ahlaselwa noma acekelwa phansi kuzo, futhi ingabe lezo zimpi zazicasulwe noma zazingenasizathu? U-Julian Assange udonsa kanzima ejele futhi u-Ed Snowden usadingisiwe, kokubili ngenxa yokuba nesibindi (noma mhlawumbe isibindi) sokuveza amaqiniso ngalezi zenzo nezinye ezifanayo.

Ngisho nanamuhla, unswinyo oluthweswa amazwe angaphezu kuka-40 amazwe aseNtshonalanga lubeka ubunzima nokuhlupheka okukhulu. Ngaphansi kwamuphi umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe noma “ukuhleleka okusekelwe emithethweni” lapho iNtshonalanga yasebenzisa amandla ayo ezomnotho ukuze ibeke lezi zijeziso? Kungani izimpahla zase-Afghanistan zisaqandisiwe emabhange aseNtshonalanga ngenkathi izwe libhekene nendlala nendlala? Kungani igolide laseVenezuela lisathunjiwe e-UK kuyilapho abantu baseVenezuela bephila emazingeni okuziphilisa? Futhi uma ukudalulwa kuka-Sy Hersh kuyiqiniso, ngaphansi kwamuphi 'ukuhleleka okusekelwe emithethweni' lapho iNtshonalanga yacekela phansi amapayipi e-Nord Stream?

Ukushintsha kwepharadigm kubonakala kwenzeka. Sisuka ezweni elibuswe iNtshonalanga siya ezweni elinezimbulunga eziningi. Impi yase-Ukraine yenze kwaba sobala kakhulu ukwehlukana kwamazwe omhlaba okuqhuba lolu shintsho. Ngokwengxenye ngenxa yomlando wayo, futhi ngokwengxenye nangenxa yezimo zangempela zezomnotho ezisafufusa, i-Global South ibona umhlaba onamachweba amaningi njengomphumela okhethwayo, lapho izwi layo lizwakala khona kakhulu.

UMongameli uKennedy waphetha inkulumo yakhe yaseNyuvesi yaseMelika ngo-1963 ngala mazwi alandelayo: “Kumele senze ingxenye yethu ukwakha umhlaba wokuthula lapho ababuthakathaka bephephile futhi abanamandla banobulungisa. Asibona abangenakuzisiza ngaphambi kwalowo msebenzi noma siphelelwe ithemba ngempumelelo yawo. Ngokuzethemba futhi singesabi, kumele sizikhandle sibheke isu lokuthula.” Lelo qhinga lokuthula laliyinselele eyayiphambi kwethu ngo-1963, futhi liseyinselele kithi namuhla. Amazwi okuthula, okuhlanganisa lawo aseNingizimu Yomhlaba, adinga ukuzwakala.

U-Krishen Mehta uyilungu Lebhodi Lekomidi LaseMelika le-US Russia Accord, kanye Nomlingani Omkhulu Wezobulungiswa Bomhlaba Wonke eYunivesithi yaseYale.