NguNicolas JS Davies, uJanuwari 30, 2020
Eminyakeni eyishumi nesithupha ngemva kokuhlasela kwe-US e-Iraq, abantu abaningi baseMelika bayaqonda ukuthi kwakuyimpi engekho emthethweni esekelwe emangeni angekho “izikhali zokucekela phansi okukhulu.” Kepha uhulumeni wethu manje usesabisa ngokusidonsela empini e-Iran "ngamanga amakhulu" acishe afanayo mayelana nohlelo lwezikhali zenuzi olungekho, olususelwa kubuhlakani bezepolitiki obuvela emaqenjini afanayo e-CIA axhuma iwebhu yamanga ukuze athethelele i-US. Ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq ngo-2003.
Ngo-2002-3, izikhulu zase-US kanye nochwepheshe bemithombo yezindaba baphindaphinda kaningi ukuthi i-Iraq yayinezikhali zezikhali ezinkulu ezazibeka usongo olukhulu emhlabeni. I-CIA yakhiqiza ubuhlakani bamanga ukusekela imashi eya empini, futhi i-cherry yakhetha ukulandisa okukhohlisayo kakhulu kaNobhala Wezwe. Colin Powell ukwethula kuMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ngoFebhuwari 5th 2003. NgoDisemba 2002, u-Alan Foley, inhloko ye-CIA's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Centre (WINPAC), etshela abasebenzi bakhe, "Uma umengameli efuna ukuya empini, umsebenzi wethu ukuthola ubuhlakani obuzomvumela ukuba enze lokho."
UPaul Pillar, isikhulu se-CIA owayeyisikhulu Sikazwelonke Sezobunhloli e-Near East kanye ne-South Asia, usize ekulungiseleleni idokhumenti enamakhasi angama-25 eyadluliselwa kuMalungu eCongress "njengesifinyezo" se-National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) ngo. I-Iraq. Kepha lo mbhalo wabhalwa ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokuthi i-NIE ithi ifingqa futhi iqukethe izimangalo ezinhle ezazingatholakali ndawo ku-NIE, njengokuthi i-CIA yayazi ngeziza ezithile ezingama-550 e-Iraq lapho kwakugcinwa khona izikhali zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji. Amalungu amaningi afunda lesi sifinyezo esingumgunyathi kuphela, hhayi i-NIE yangempela, futhi avotele impi ngokungaboni. Njengoba Wavuma kamuva uNsika kwe PBS Ngaphambili, “Inhloso bekuwukuqinisa icala lokuyolwa nomphakathi waseMelika. Ingabe kufanelekile ukuba umphakathi wezobunhloli ushicilele amaphepha aleyo njongo? Angicabangi kanjalo, futhi ngiyazisola ngokuba neqhaza kukho.”
I-WINPAC yasungulwa ngo-2001 ukuze ithathele indawo ye-CIA's Nonproliferation Center noma i-NPC (1991-2001), lapho abasebenzi abayikhulu be-CIA abahlaziyi beqoqa ubufakazi obungaba khona bokuthuthukiswa kwezikhali zenuzi, zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji ukusekela impi yolwazi lwase-US, unswinyo kanye noshintsho ekugcineni umbuso. izinqubomgomo ezimelene ne-Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya nezinye izitha zase-US.
I-WINPAC isebenzisa isathelayithi yase-US, i-electronic surveillance kanye namanethiwekhi ezinhloli zamazwe ngamazwe ukukhiqiza izinto ezizophakela izinhlangano ze-UN ezifana ne-UNSCOM, i-UNMOVIC, i-Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) kanye ne-International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), abathweswe amacala. ukwengamela ukungasabalala kwezikhali zenuzi, zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji. Izinto ezisetshenziswa yi-CIA zigcine laba bahloli nabahlaziyi balezi zinhlangano bematasatasa ngemibhalo engapheli, izithombe zesathelayithi kanye nezimangalo zabadingisiwe cishe iminyaka engama-30. Kodwa kusukela i-Iraq yabhubhisa zonke izikhali zayo ezazivinjelwe ngo-1991, ayitholanga ubufakazi obuqinisekisayo bokuthi i-Iraq noma i-Iran isithathe izinyathelo zokuthola izikhali zenuzi, zamakhemikhali noma zebhayoloji.
I-UNMOVIC kanye ne-IAEA batshele uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ngo-2002-3 ukuthi abukho ubufakazi obusekela izinsolo ze-US zokwakhiwa kwezikhali ezingekho emthethweni e-Iraq. Umqondisi Jikelele we-IAEA u-Mohamed ElBaradei udalule i-CIA Ikhekhe eliphuzi laseNiger idokhumenti njengomgunyathi esikhathini esingangehora. Ukuzibophezela kuka-ElBaradei ekuzimeleni nokungakhethi kwenhlangano yakhe kwazuza ukuhlonishwa komhlaba, futhi yena nenhlangano yakhe baklonyeliswa ngokuhlanganyela I-Nobel Peace Prize e 2005.
Ngaphandle kwamanga kanye nobufakazi bamanga ngamabomu obuvela emaqenjini okudingiswa afana nelika-Ahmad Chalabi I-Iraqi National Congress (INC) kanye ne-Iranian Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), ukwaziswa okuningi i-CIA kanye nabalingani bayo abakunikeze izinhlangano ze-UN kuhilele ubuchwepheshe obusebenzisa kabili, obungasetshenziswa ezinhlelweni zezikhali ezivinjelwe kodwa futhi bunokusebenzisa okunye okusemthethweni. Umsebenzi omningi we-IAEA e-Iran bekuwukuqinisekisa ukuthi ngayinye yalezi zinto isetshenziselwe izinjongo ezinokuthula noma ukuthuthukiswa kwezikhali ezivamile esikhundleni sohlelo lwezikhali zenuzi. Kodwa njengase-Iraq, ukuqoqwa kobufakazi obungaphelele, obungenabufakazi bokuthi kungenzeka uhlelo lwezikhali zenuzi lusebenze njengesikhali esibalulekile sezombusazwe sokuqinisekisa abezindaba kanye nomphakathi ukuthi kumele kube khona okuthile okuqinile ngemuva kwayo yonke intuthu nezibuko.
Ngokwesibonelo, ngo-1990 I-CIA yaqala ukuphazamisa Imiyalezo ye-Telex evela eNyuvesi yase-Sharif e-Tehran kanye neSikhungo Sokucwaninga Se-Fiziksi sase-Iran mayelana nama-oda kazibuthe, i-fluoride nemishini yokubamba i-fluoride, umshini wokulinganisa, i-spectrometer enkulu kanye nemishini ye-vacuum, konke okungasetshenziswa ekuthuthukisweni kwe-uranium. Eminyakeni eyi-17 eyalandela, i-NPC ye-CIA kanye ne-WINPAC bathatha la ma-Telexes njengobunye bobufakazi babo obunamandla bohlelo oluyimfihlo lwezikhali zenuzi e-Iran, futhi bacashunwe kanjalo yizikhulu eziphezulu zase-US. Kwaze kwafika ngo-2007-8 lapho uhulumeni wase-Iranian wagcina elandele zonke lezi zinto eNyuvesi yaseSharif, futhi abahloli be-IAEA bakwazi vakashela inyuvesi futhi baqinisekise ukuthi bezisetshenziselwa ucwaningo nokufundisa kwezemfundo, njengoba i-Iran yayibatshelile.
Ngemuva kokuhlasela kwe-Iraq e-Iraq ngo-2003, umsebenzi we-IAEA e-Iran waqhubeka, kodwa konke ukuhola okunikezwa yi-CIA kanye nabalingani bayo kubonakale kungokwakhiwe, kumsulwa noma kungaphelele. Ngo-2007, izinhlaka zezobunhloli zaseMelika zashicilela i-National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) entsha nge-Iran lapho zavuma khona ukuthi i-Iran yayingenalo uhlelo olusebenzayo lwezikhali zenuzi. Ukushicilelwa kwe- 2007 NIYE kwakuyisinyathelo esibalulekile ekugwemeni impi yase-US e-Iran. Njengoba uGeorge W Bush wabhala ku izikhumbuzo zakhe, "... ngemuva kwe-NIE, ngingakuchaza kanjani ukusebenzisa amasosha ukucekela phansi izindawo zenuzi zezwe umphakathi wezobunhloli owathi alinalo uhlelo olusebenzayo lwezikhali zenuzi?"
Kodwa naphezu kokuntuleka kobufakazi obuqinisekisayo, i-CIA yenqaba ukushintsha "ukuhlola" kusukela ku-2001 kanye ne-2005 NIEs ukuthi i-Iran cishe yayinohlelo lwezikhali zenuzi ngaphambi kuka-2003. Lokhu kwashiya umnyango ovulekile wokuqhubeka nokusetshenziswa kwezinsolo ze-WMD, ukuhlolwa. kanye nezijeziso njengezikhali zezombusazwe ezinamandla embusweni wase-US zishintsha inqubomgomo zibheke e-Iran.
Ngo-2007, i-UNMOVIC yashicilela i-a Ukuhlanganiswa noma umbiko wokugcina ngezifundo ezitholwe engxoxweni yase-Iraq. Esinye isifundo esibalulekile sasiwukuthi, “Ukuzimela okuphelele kuyisidingo se-ejensi yokuhlola ye-UN,” ukuze inqubo yokuhlola ingasetshenziswa, “ukusekela ezinye izinhlelo noma ukugcina iqembu elihloliwe lisesimweni sobuthakathaka unomphela.” Esinye isifundo esibalulekile sasiwukuthi, “Ukufakazela okungekuhle kuyindlela yokubekezelela ubunzima nokuhlolwa okungapheli.”
The 2005 Ikhomishini kaRobb-Silberman ekuhlulekeni kwezobunhloli base-US e-Iraq bafinyelele eziphethweni ezifanayo, njengaleso, “... Nakuba isimo senqubomgomo yase-US sasiwukuthi i-Iraq yayinomthwalo wemfanelo wokufakazela ukuthi yayingenazo izinhlelo zezikhali ezivinjiwe, umthwalo Womphakathi Wezobunhloli wokunikeza ubufakazi bekufanele ube umgomo othé xaxa... Ngokuphakamisa umthwalo wobufakazi phezulu kangaka, abahlaziyi bagwegwile ngokuzenzela inqubo yokuhlaziya ukuze bathole isiqiniseko. ye-hypothesis yabo yasekuqaleni - ukuthi i-Iraq yayinezinhlelo ze-WMD ezisebenzayo. "
Emsebenzini wayo nge-Iran, i-CIA yenze ucwaningo olunephutha kanye nezinqubo ezihlonzwe yi-UNMOVIC Compendium kanye nombiko weRobb-Silberman nge-Iraq. Ingcindezi yokukhiqiza ubuhlakani obungokwepolitiki obusekela izikhundla zenqubomgomo yase-US isaqhubeka ngoba lokho kuwuphawu indima ekhohlakele ukuthi izinhlangano zezobunhloli zase-US zidlala kunqubomgomo yase-US, ihlola kwabanye ohulumeni, ukuketula umbuso, ukunqamula amandla amazwe kanye nokukhiqiza ubuhlakani obunepolitiki nobungamanga ukuze bakhe izaba zempi.
I-ejensi yezobunhloli kazwelonke esemthethweni izohlinzeka ngohlaziyo lwenhloso yobuhlakani abenzi benqubomgomo abangalusebenzisa njengesisekelo sezinqumo zenqubomgomo eziphusile. Kodwa, njengoba i-UNMOVIC Compendium isho, uhulumeni wase-US akathembekile ekusebenziseni kabi umqondo wezobunhloli kanye negunya lezikhungo zamazwe ngamazwe njenge-IAEA "ukusekela ezinye izinhlelo," ikakhulukazi isifiso sakhe sokushintsha umbuso emazweni emhlabeni jikelele.
“Enye i-ajenda” yase-US e-Iran yazuza umsizi obalulekile ngenkathi u-Mohamed ElBaradei ethatha umhlalaphansi ku-IAEA ngo-2009, futhi esikhundleni sakhe kwathathwa u-Yukiya Amano wase-Japan. A Ikhebula loMnyango Wezwe kusukela ngoJulayi 10th 2009 ekhishwe yi-Wikileaks ichaze uMnu. Amano "njengozakwethu oqinile" e-US ngokusekelwe "kwizinga eliphezulu kakhulu lokuhlangana phakathi kwezinto ezibalulekile zakhe kanye ne-ajenda yethu ku-IAEA." Imemo iphakamise ukuthi i-US kufanele izame “ukulolonga ukucabanga kuka-Amano ngaphambi kokuthi uhlelo lwakhe lushayisane nehhovisi likaNobhala we-IAEA.” Umbhali wememo kwakunguGeoffrey Pyatt, kamuva owazuza udumo emhlabeni wonke njengeNxusa laseMelika e-Ukraine owadalulwa ekuputshuzweni. ukuqoshwa komsindo behlela ukuketula umbuso ngo-2014 e-Ukraine noMsizi kaNobhala Wezwe uVictoria Nuland.
Abaphathi baka-Obama basebenzise ihlandla labo lokuqala bephishekela ukuhluleka "i-dual-track" indlela yokuya I-Iran, lapho ukukhulumisana kwayo kwabukelwa phansi ngenxa yokubeka phambili okukhulu ekunikezeni umkhondo wayo ofanayo wokukhula unswinyo lwe-UN. Ngenkathi iBrazil neTurkey bethula i-Iran uhlaka lwesivumelwano senuzi esasihlongozwe yi-US, i-Iran yavumelana naso ngokushesha. Kepha i-US yakwenqaba lokho okwase kuqalile njengesiphakamiso saseMelika ngoba, ngaleso sikhathi, ngabe isiyifezile imizamo yayo yokunxenxa uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ukuthi ubeke unswinyo oluqinile e-Iran.
Njengoba isikhulu esiphezulu soMnyango Wezwe sitshela umbhali u-Trita Parsi, inkinga yangempela ukuthi i-US yayingeke ithathe okuthi “Yebo” ukuze iphendule. Kwakusehlandla lesibili lika-Obama kuphela, ngemva kokuba u-John Kerry ethathe isikhundla sika-Hillary Clinton njengoNobhala Wezwe, lapho i-US yagcina ithathe u-“Yebo” ukuze iphendule, okwaholela ku-JCPOA phakathi kwe-Iran, i-US namanye amazwe amakhulu ngo-2015. kwakungezona unswinyo olusekelwa yi-US olulethe i-Iran etafuleni, kodwa ukwehluleka kwezijeziso ezilethe i-US etafuleni.
Futhi ngo-2015, i-IAEA yaphothula umsebenzi wayo "Izinkinga Ezivelele" mayelana nemisebenzi edlule yase-Iran ehlobene nezikhali zenuzi. Esimeni ngasinye esiqondile socwaningo lokusebenzisa okukabili noma ukungenisa kobuchwepheshe, i-IAEA ayitholanga bufakazi bokuthi zazihlobene nezikhali zenuzi esikhundleni sokusebenzisa okuvamile kwezempi noma umphakathi. Ngaphansi kobuholi buka-Amano kanye nengcindezi yase-US, i-IAEA "isacubungula" ukuthi "imisebenzi eminingi ehlobene nokwakhiwa kwesiqhumane senuzi yenziwa e-Iran ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2003," kodwa ukuthi "le misebenzi ayizange iqhubekele phambili ngendlela engenzeka. izifundo kanye nokutholwa kwamakhono namakhono athile ezobuchwepheshe.”
I-JCPOA inokusekelwa okubanzi eWashington. Kepha impikiswano yezepolitiki yase-US mayelana ne-JCPOA ishaye indiva imiphumela yangempela yomsebenzi we-IAEA e-Iran, indima ehlanekezela i-CIA kuyo kanye nezinga i-CIA iphindaphinde ngayo ukuchema kwesikhungo, ukuqiniswa kwemibono, ukukhohlisa, ukwenza ipolitiki. kanye nenkohlakalo “ezinye izinhlelo” obekufanele zilungiswe ukuze kuvinjelwe noma yikuphi ukuphindaphinda kwe-WMD fiasco e-Iraq.
Osopolitiki abeseka i-JCPOA manje bathi iyeke i-Iran ukuthola izikhali zenuzi, kanti labo abaphikisana ne-JCPOA bathi izovumela i-Iran ukuthi izithenge. Zombili azilungile ngoba, njengoba i-IAEA isiphethe futhi noMongameli Bush wavuma, i-Iran ayinalo uhlelo olusebenzayo lwezikhali zenuzi. Okubi kakhulu i-IAEA engakusho ngokufanelekile ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Iran yenze ucwaningo oluyisisekelo oluhlobene nezikhali zenuzi esikhathini esithile ngaphambi kuka-2003 - kodwa futhi, mhlawumbe ayizange yenze.
U-Mohamed ElBaradei wabhala encwadini yakhe yesikhumbuzo, Inkathi Yokukhohlisa: I-Nuclear Diplomacy Ezikhathini Ezikhohlisayo, ukuthi, uma i-Iran ike yenze ucwaningo lwezikhali zenuzi olungajwayelekile, wayeqinisekile ukuthi kwakungeMpi Ye-Iran-Iraq kuphela, eyaphela ngo-1988, lapho i-US kanye nabalingani bayo. yasiza i-Iraq ukubulala abantu base-Irani abafika ku-100,000 ngezikhali zamakhemikhali. Ukube izinsolo zika-ElBaradei beziyiqiniso, inkinga ye-Iran kusukela ngaleso sikhathi bekuyoba ukuthi ibingeke iwuvume lowo msebenzi ngeminyaka yawo-1980 ngaphandle kokubhekana nokungathembani okukhulu nobutha obuvela e-US namadlelandawonye ayo, nokubeka engcupheni isiphetho esifanayo ne-Iraq.
Ngaphandle kokungaqiniseki mayelana nezenzo ze-Iran ngeminyaka yawo-1980, umkhankaso we-US ngokumelene ne-Iran wephule umthetho. izifundo ezibaluleke kakhulu Izikhulu zaseMelika kanye ne-UN zithi zifunde ku-fiasco mayelana ne-Iraq. I-CIA isebenzise izinsolo zayo ezicishe zingabi nasisekelo mayelana nezikhali zenuzi e-Iran njengezaba “zokweseka amanye ama-ajenda” kanye “nokugcina iqembu elihloliwe lisesimweni sobuthakathaka obuhlala njalo,” njengoba nje I-UNMOVIC Compendium waxwayisa ngokuthi angaphinde enze elinye izwe.
E-Iran njengase-Iraq, lokhu kuholele ekubuseni okungekho emthethweni kwe unswinyo olunonya, lapho izinkulungwane zezingane zibulawa izifo ezingavinjelwa kanye nokungondleki kahle, kanye nezinsongo zenye impi engekho emthethweni yase-US ezogubungula iMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nomhlaba ngesiphithiphithi esikhulu nakakhulu kunaleso i-CIA eyakha ngokumelene ne-Iraq.
Impendulo eyodwa
ungawasebenzisi kabusha amanga, sebenzisa kabusha iqiniso!