By Prabir Purkayastha, World BEYOND War, Mashi 17, 2023
Isivumelwano sakamuva se-Australia, US, kanye ne-UK $368 billion sokuthenga imikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi sibizwe nguPaul Keating, owayengundunankulu wase-Australia, njengoba “indaba embi kunazo zonke emlandweni.” Ibophezela i-Australia ukuthi ithenge imikhumbi-ngwenya ehlomile, enamandla enyukliya ezolethwa ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-2040. Lokhu kuzosuselwa kumiklamo emisha ye-nuclear reactor esazothuthukiswa yi-UK. Ngaleso sikhathi, kusukela ngo-2030, "kusalinde ukugunyazwa yi-US Congress, i-United States ihlose ukuthengisa imikhumbi-ngwenya yase-Australia emithathu yekilasi laseVirginia, enamandla okuthengisa ezinye ezifika kwezimbili uma kudingeka” (I-Trilateral Australia-UK-US Partnership on Nuclear-Powered Submarines, March 13, 2023; okwami okugcizelela). Ngokwemininingwane, kubonakala sengathi lesi sivumelwano sibophezela i-Australia ukuthi ithenge e-US imikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi emisha eyisishiyagalombili, ezolethwa kusukela kuma-2040s kuze kube sekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2050. Ukube imikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi ibibaluleke kangaka ekuvikelekeni kwe-Australia, ngenxa yalokho yephule isivumelwano sayo semikhumbi-ngwenya esebenza ngodizili neFrance, lesi sivumelwano asinikezi izimpendulo ezithembekile.
Kulabo abebelandela izindaba zokusabalala kwezikhali zenuzi, isivumelwano siphakamisa ifulegi elibomvu elihlukile. Uma ubuchwepheshe be-reactor nuclear reactor kanye ne-uranium-grade (ecetshiswe kakhulu) i-uranium yabelwana ne-Australia, kuwukwephula iSivumelwano Sokungavikeleki KweNuclear (NPT) lapho i-Australia isayine khona njengamandla angewona awenuzi. Ngisho nokuhlinzekwa kwalezi ziphehlimandla zenuzi yi-US kanye ne-UK kungaba ukwephulwa kwe-NPT. Lokhu kwenzeka ngisho noma imikhumbi-ngwenya enjalo ingaziphathi izikhali zenuzi kodwa ezivamile njengoba kushiwo kulesi sivumelwano.
Pho kungani i-Australia yahoxisa isivumelwano sayo neFrance, okwakuzothenga kuyo imikhumbi-ngwenya engu-12 kadizili IFrance ngezindleko zamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-67, ingxenye encane yemali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-368 zamaRandi asebenzisana ne-US? Izuzani, futhi izuzani i-US ngokucasula iFrance, omunye wabalingani bayo abaseduze be-NATO?
Ukuze siqonde, kufanele sibone ukuthi i-US ibheka kanjani i-geostrategy, nokuthi i-Five Eyes-i-US, i-UK, i-Canada, i-Australia, ne-New Zealand-ingena kanjani kulesi sithombe esikhulu. Ngokusobala, i-US ikholelwa ukuthi umnyombo wokubambisana kwe-NATO yi-United States, i-United Kingdom, ne-Canada ye-Atlantic ne-United States, i-United Kingdom, ne-Australia ye-Indo-Pacific. Abanye ababambisene nabo, ababambisene be-NATO eYurophu naseJapan naseNingizimu Korea eMpumalanga naseNingizimu Asia, bazungeze lo mgogodla wama-Five Eyes. Kungakho i-United States yayizimisele ukucasula iFrance ukuze ithengiselane ne-Australia.
I-US itholani kulesi sivumelwano? Ngokwesithembiso semikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi eyisishiyagalombili ezonikezwa i-Australia eminyakeni engamashumi amabili kuya kwamane phansi komugqa, i-US ithola ukufinyelela e-Australia ukuze isetshenziswe njengesisekelo sokusekela imikhumbi yayo yezempi, ibutho lezindiza, kanye namasosha ase-US. I amagama asetshenziswa yi-White House, “Ekuqaleni kuka-2027, i-United Kingdom ne-United States bahlela ukusungula ukuba khona okujikelezayo komkhumbi-ngwenya we-UK Astute class eyodwa kanye nemikhumbi-ngwenya yekilasi lase-US Virginia e-HMAS. I-Stirling eduze kwasePerth, eNtshonalanga Australia.” Ukusetshenziswa kwebinzana elithi "ubukhona obujikelezayo" ukunikeza i-Australia iqabunga lomkhiwane ukuthi ayinikezi i-US isizinda samasosha asolwandle, njengoba lokho kuzophula isikhundla sesikhathi eside sase-Australia sokungabi nazisekelo zangaphandle emhlabathini wayo. Ngokusobala, zonke izinhlaka zokusekela ezidingekayo ekujikelezweni okunjalo yilokho isizinda samasosha angaphandle esinakho, ngakho-ke zizosebenza njengezisekelo zase-US.
Ubani oqondiswe kumbimbi lwe-AUKUS? Lokhu kucacile kukho konke okubhaliwe ngale ndaba kanye nalokho okushiwo yibo bonke abaholi be-AUKUS: yi-China. Ngamanye amazwi, lokhu kuqukethwe inqubomgomo yase-China ne-South China Sea kanye ne-Taiwanese Strait njengezifunda eziyinhloko eziphikisana nolwandle. Ukubeka imikhumbi yasolwandle yase-US okuhlanganisa nemikhumbi-ngwenya yayo yenuzi ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi kwenza i-Australia ibe yizwe eliphambili ezinhlelweni zamanje zase-US zokunqanda iChina. Ukwengeza, kudala ingcindezi emazweni amaningi aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia angathanda ukuphuma emqhudelwaneni onjalo we-US neChina owenziwa eSouth China Sea.
Nakuba ukugqugquzelwa kwe-US yokubhala i-Australia njengezwe eliphambili ngokumelene neChina kuyaqondakala, okunzima ukukuqonda ukuthi Inzuzo ye-Australia ngokuqondanisa okunjalo. I-China ayilona nje kuphela umthengisi omkhulu wezimpahla zase-Australia, kodwa futhi umphakeli wayo omkhulu. Ngamanye amazwi, uma i-Australia ikhathazekile ngokuphepha kohwebo lwayo olwandle lwaseNingizimu China ekuhlaselweni kwamaShayina, ingxenye enkulu yalolu hwebo iseChina. Manje kungani iChina ingahlanya ngokwanele ukuthi ihlasele ukuhweba kwayo ne-Australia? E-US kwenza umqondo ophusile ukuthola izwekazi lonke, i-Australia, ukusingatha amabutho alo eduze kakhulu neShayina kunamamayela ayi-8,000-9,000 e-US Nakuba isivele inezisekelo eHawaii naseGuam ePacific Ocean, e-Australia nase-Japan inikeza. izindawo ezimbili okusetshenzwa kuzo ihange, eyodwa enyakatho nenye eningizimu esifundeni esisempumalanga yePacific Ocean. Umdlalo umdlalo wakudala wokuzithiba, lowo owadlalwa yi-US nemifelandawonye yezempi ye-NATO, Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), kanye neSoutheast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) ngemuva kweMpi Yezwe II.
Inkinga i-US enayo namuhla ukuthi namazwe afana ne-India, anezinkinga zawo neChina, awasayini ne-US kumfelandawonye wezempi. Ikakhulukazi, njengoba i-US manje isempini yezomnotho ne inombolo yamazwe, hhayi iRussia neChina kuphela, njengeCuba, i-Iran, iVenezuela, i-Iraq, i-Afghanistan, iSyria, neSomalia. Ngenkathi i-India yayizimisele ukujoyina i-Quad—i-US, i-Australia, iJapane, ne-India—futhi ibambe iqhaza ezivivinyweni zezempi, yahlehla ku-Quad yaba umfelandawonye wezempi. Lokhu kuchaza ingcindezi yokuthi i-Australia ibambisane ne-US ngokwezempi, ikakhulukazi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Isehluleka ukuchaza ukuthi yini ekhona e-Australia. Ngisho nemikhumbi-ngwenya yenuzi yekilasi laseVirginia i-Australia engase izithole ingaphansi kwemvume yeCongress yase-US. Labo abalandela ipolitiki yase-US bayazi ukuthi i-US okwamanje ayinakho isivumelwano; alikaqinisesi nesisodwa isivumelwano ezindabeni ezisukela ekufudumaleni komhlaba kuya emthethweni wolwandle eminyakeni yamuva nje. Ezinye eziyisishiyagalombili zihamba kahle ngeminyaka engama-20-40; ngubani owaziyo ukuthi umhlaba ubungabukeka kanjani kude kangako emgqeni.
Kungani, uma ukuphepha kwemikhumbi yempi kwakuyinhloso yayo, i-Australia yakhetha i I-iffy isivumelwano se-nuclear submarine ne-US phezu kokutholakala okuqinisekile kwemikhumbi-ngwenya yaseFrance? Lokhu yi umbuzo lowo uMalcolm Turnbull kanye no-Paul Keating, ama-PM wangaphambili we-Australian Labor Party, babuza. Kunengqondo kuphela uma siqonda ukuthi i-Australia manje isizibona njenge-cog esondweni lase-US kulesi sifunda. Futhi kuwumbono wokuqagela kwamandla wemikhumbi yempi yase-US esifundeni namuhla i-Australia eyabelana ngayo. Umbono wukuthi izifiki zasemakoloni kanye namandla angaphambili e-G7-AUKUS—kufanele kube yiwona ashaya imithetho yohlelo lwamanje lwamazwe ngamazwe. Futhi ngemuva kwenkulumo yokuhleleka kwamazwe ngamazwe isibhakela esithunyelwe ngeposi se-US, NATO, kanye ne-AUKUS. Yilokhu okushiwo isivumelwano se-nuclear submarine yase-Australia.
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