Bengilokhu nginentshiseko ekusekeleni kwami izingxoxo zokuthula, ebezinganakwa izikhathi eziningi ezingxabanweni zangaphakathi nezamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa kuyacaca ukuthi ingqungquthela yamazwe ngamazwe eSyria eyabamba umhlangano wayo wokuqala eVienna ngo-Okthoba 30 iyingqungquthela yenkohliso engakwazi ukuletha noma yiziphi izingxoxo zokuthula, nokuthi abaphathi baka-Obama babekwazi kahle lokho kusukela ekuqaleni.
Abaphathi babencoma iqiniso lokuthi i-Iran imenyiwe ukuba ibambe iqhaza engqungqutheleni, ngokungafani nombuthano wangaphambilini owawuxhaswe yiNhlangano Yezizwe eSyria ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari 2014. Leyo ngqungquthela eneshwa yayingayifaki i-Iran ngokugcizelela kwe-United States kanye nabalingani bayo beSunni, nakuba izifundazwe ezimbalwa ezingenawo amandla amancane okunikela nganoma yini ekuxazululeni ukuthula - kanye neVatican - zaziphakathi kwabahlanganyeli abangu-40 abangebona abaseSiriya.
Ukubamba iqhaza kwe-Iran engqungqutheleni yaseVienna kumelela isinyathelo esihle. Noma kunjalo, ingqungquthela yaphawulwa ngokungenangqondo okubaluleke nakakhulu: akukho nelilodwa leqembu laseSyria empini elimenyiwe. Izingxoxo zango-2014 okungenani zazinabamele umbuso ka-Assad nabanye bamaqembu aphikisayo ahlomile. Umphumela osobala waleso sinqumo ukuthi abaxhasi bangaphandle bamaqembu aseSyria - ikakhulukazi iRussia, i-Iran neSaudi Arabia - kulindeleke ukuthi baqonde ohlakeni lwesivumelwano bese besebenzisa amandla abo namakhasimende ukuphoqa ukwamukelwa kwesivumelwano.
Imodeli yaseVietnam
Umqondo wokugxumela izinhlangothi zaseSyria ezingxabanweni ngokuba namandla angaphandle axoxisane ngesivumelwano sokuthula egameni lamaklayenti awo unengqondo ngokuphelele ekucabangeni. Indaba yakudala yohlelo olunjalo ukuxoxisana kwase-US ngeSivumelwano saseParis neNorth Vietnamese ngoJanuwari 1973 ukuze kuqedwe impi yase-US eVietnam. Ukuthembela okuphelele kombuso kaThieu osekelwa yi-US osizweni lwase-US kanye nesisindo sebutho lezempi laseMelika eVietnam kwaqinisekisa ukuthi uThieu uyakwamukela ngenkani lolu hlelo.
Kodwa futhi kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi ilungiselelo aliyiqedanga impi. Umbuso wakwaThieu wawungazimisele ukuthobela isivumelwano sokuyeka ukulwa noma ukuxazulula izingxabano zezombusazwe, futhi impi yaqhubeka iminyaka emibili ngaphambi kokuba ukuhlasela okukhulu kwaseNyakatho Vietnam kuqede ngo-1975.
Okubaluleke nakakhulu mayelana nokusebenza kwemodeli eMpini yaseSyria umehluko omkhulu phakathi kwentshisekelo yase-US ekuxoxisaneni ngekhanda leklayenti layo laseVietnam kanye nezithakazelo zase-Iranian naseRussia mayelana nohulumeni waseSyria. I-United States yayixoxisana ukuze iphume empini yokuzikhethela eyaqala, njenge-Iraq, ngenkolelo eyiphutha yokuthi amandla ayo amakhulu aqinisekisa ukulawula isimo futhi lapho yaphoqeleka ukuba iphele yingcindezi yezombusazwe yasekhaya. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Iran ilwa nempi eSyria eyibona ibalulekile ekuvikelekeni kwayo. Futhi izintshisekelo zezepolitiki nezokuphepha zaseRussia eSyria zingase zingacaci kahle, kepha futhi ayinaso isisusa sokuvuma isivumelwano esingabeka engcupheni ukunqoba kobuphekula eSyria.
Ukufiphala kokuphikiswa ‘okumaphakathi’
Ithemba lokuletha amabutho e-anti-Assad endaweni yokuhlala lifiphele nakakhulu. Uma amabutho aphikisayo asekelwa yi-US abhekene nombuso waseSyria kanye nabalingani bawo bakwamanye amazwe benamandla anele okusongela umbuso kungase kube isisekelo esinenhloso sezingxoxo zokuthula. Abaphathi baka-Obama bazamile ukwakha isithombe sokuthi amabutho “aphakathi nendawo” - okusho ukuthi lawo azimisele ukusebenzisana ne-United States - angamasosha aphikisayo ombuso ka-Assad. Eqinisweni, nokho, lawo mandla “alinganiselayo” athathwe noma ahlangana namajihadist e-al-Nusra Front kanye nabalingani bayo.
Lolo shintsho olukhulu esimweni sokuphikisana nezikhali ku-Assad lwaqala ukubonakala ngoSepthemba 2013. Kungaleso sikhathi lapho amaqembu amathathu amakhulu ama-Islamist "aphakathi" ujoyine ngokungalindelekile nabasekeli be-al-Nusra Front ngokumelene neSyrian National Coalition, eyasungulwa eDoha ngoNovemba 2012 ngaphansi kwengcindezi evela e-United States kanye nabalingani bayo baseGulf.
Ukushintshela ekubuseni kwama-jihadist empini yokulwa nombuso wase-Assad kwakhula ngokushesha phakathi kukaNovemba 2014 noMashi 2015 lapho I-Syrian Revolutionaries Front futhi Harakat al-Hazm Amaqembu, amaqembu amabili amavukela-mbuso abekade ethola izikhali kwa-CIA noma ama-Saudis, ahlaselwa futhi iningi lawo lathathwa yi-al-Nusra Front.
Lolo shintsho lunemiphumela esobala yokuthi kungenzeka kube khona ukuxazululwa kwezingxoxo. Engqungqutheleni ye-Geneva II yesithunywa seNhlangano Yezizwe uLakhdar Brahimi ngoJanuwari 2014, okuwukuphela kwamaqembu aphikisayo etafuleni kwakungalawo amelwe iSyrian National Coalition esekelwa yi-US, okungekho noyedwa owayithatha ngokungathi sína njengokumelela noma yikuphi usongo lwezempi kuhulumeni. Abebengekho engqungqutheleni abazibiza nge-Islamic State kanye ne-al-Qaeda franchise eSyria, i-al-Nusra Front kanye nabalingani bayo, ababemele usongo olunjalo.
Ubutha bukaNusra ngezingxoxo
Kepha i-Islamic State noma ama-Islamist aholwa yiNusra-Front awazange abe nentshisekelo nakancane engqungqutheleni yokuthula. Inhloko yezempi ye-Islamic Front, ephethwe ngumlingani oseduze we-al-Nusra, u-Ahrar al-Sham, wamemezela ukuthi uzocabanga ukubamba iqhaza kwanoma yiliphi ibutho lamavukela-mbuso ezingxoxweni zokuthula “njengokuvukela umbuso”.
Yikuphi Kusho abaphathi baka-Obama ifuna ukubona ukuphuma engqungqutheleni yaseVienna "kuyimephu yomgwaqo" yenguquko emandleni. Ngaphezu kwalokho abaphathi bakubeke kwacaca ukuthi bafisa ukulondoloza izikhungo zombuso waseSyria, okuhlanganisa nesakhiwo samasosha aseSyria. Kodwa womabili i-Islamic State kanye nomfelandawonye oholwa yi-al-Qaeda yizinhlangano zamaSunni ezinontamolukhuni ezingakafihli inhloso yazo yokususa umbuso ka-Assad ngombuso wamaSulumane ongenazo izinsalela zemishini yombuso ekhona.
Umbuso wakwa-Assad ngokusobala awunaso isisusa, ngakho-ke, ngisho nokusikisela kunoma yikuphi ukuguquguquka kwesidingo sokusuka kuka-Assad eSyria, kuyilapho wazi ukuthi akukho okungenzeka ukuthi kuqedwe noma kulungiswe isivumelwano ne-Islamic State kanye ne-al-Nusra Front. Ngokufanayo, awekho amaRussia noma ama-Irani okungenzeka aphoqelele isandla sika-Assad odabeni ukuze nje axoxisane nesici esibuthaka kakhulu kwabaphikisayo abahlomile.
Ukulandisa okungamanga kwe-US ngeSyria
Abenzi bezinqubomgomo zokuphatha kuka-Obama nokho babonakala bezimisele ukungavumeli amaqiniso angajabulisi ukuthi aphazamise ulayini wabo wenkulumo-ze ngeSyria, okusho ukuthi kukuRussia ne-Iran ukuthi baxazulule le nkinga ngokwenza ngandlela thize izimvume ezivela kuhulumeni wakwa-Assad. UNobhala Wezwe uJohn Kerry kuphakanyiswe engxoxweni nesiteshi sikamabonakude iKazak ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngemva kokuba ingqungquthela yaseVienna ibize ukuthi "indlela yokuqeda impi iwukucela uMnu Assad ukuba asize ngenguquko kuhulumeni omusha". I-Russia yehlulekile ukwenza lokho, futhi esikhundleni salokho "ikhona ukusekela umbuso ka-Assad," kusho uKerry, enezela ngokuthi "abaphikisayo ngeke bayeke ukulwa no-Assad".
Kuyangabazeka ukuthi u-Kerry wenza iphutha lenkulumo-ze yamaqiniso ezombusazwe namasosha aseSyria angenakunyakaziswa. Kodwa akulula ngokwepolitiki ukuvuma lawo maqiniso. Lokho bekuzomema imibuzo engafuneki ngesinqumo sabaphathi sangowezi-2011 sokuhlanganisa inqubomgomo yabo noklebe baseSyria eRiyadh, Doha nase-Istanbul ababezimisele kakhulu ekushintsheni umbuso eSyria kangangokuthi babengagcini nje ngokungenandaba nokwakhiwa kwamaJihadist eSyria kodwa bakubona njengokufana. ithuluzi eliwusizo lokususa i-Assad.
Manje intengo yesu lika-Obama elibi lezepolitiki nezombusazwe ingqungquthela yokuthula mbumbulu edukisa umhlaba wonke ngokuntuleka kwanoma yisiphi isisombululo esingokoqobo sempi.
- I-Gareth Porter uyintatheli ephenyayo ezimele futhi owine uMklomelo we-Gellhorn ka-2012 wobuntatheli. Ungumbhali we-Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare esanda kushicilelwa.
