Ibhalwe nguGareth Porter, I-Middle East Iso
Imininingwane isekela ukugomela kukaPutin kokuthi ukudubula kwalungiswa kusenesikhathi ngenxa yokuqhuma kwamabhomu eRussia kumavukelambuso ahlobene neTurkey eSyria.
I-United States namadlelandawonye ayo e-NATO banikeze isiko lobumbano lwe-NATO ngemuva kokuba izikhulu zaseTurkey zethule udaba lwazo lokuthi ukudutshulwa kwendiza yaseRussia kwenzeke ngemuva kokuba izindiza ezimbili zingene emkhathini waseTurkey.
Ummeleli waseTurkey kubikiwe idlale okurekhodiwe kochungechunge oluxwayisa abashayeli bezindiza baseTurkey i-F16 ababelunikeze izindiza zaseRussia ngaphandle kwempendulo yaseRussia, futhi i-US namanye amazwe angamalungu e-NATO agunyaze ilungelo leTurkey lokuvikela indawo yayo yezindiza.
Okhulumela uMnyango Wezokuvikela waseMelika uColonel Steve Warren kusekelwe isimangalo saseTurkey sokuthi izexwayiso eziyi-10 zikhishwe esikhathini esiyimizuzu emihlanu. Abaphathi baka-Obama ngokusobala bazwakalise ukukhathazeka okuncane mayelana nokuthi izindiza zaseRussia ziwele ngempela yini endaweni yomoya yaseTurkey. Col Warren avunyelwe ukuthi izikhulu zaseMelika azikatholi ukuthi indiza yaseRussia yayikuphi ngesikhathi umcibisholo waseTurkey ushaya indiza.
Yize abaphathi baka-Obama bengeke bakuvume lokho, imininingwane esesivele ikhona isekela isisho saseRussia sokuthi ukudubulana kwabantu baseTurkey kwaba, njengoba uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin asho, "umqamekeli" owawulungiswe ngokucophelela kusengaphambili.
Isimangalo esimaphakathi saseTurkey sokuthi abashayeli bayo be-F-16 baxwayise izindiza ezimbili zaseRussia izikhathi eziyishumi phakathi nenkathi yemizuzu emihlanu empeleni kuwuphawu oluyinhloko lokuthi iTurkey ibingakhulumi iqiniso ngokudutshulwa.
Ijet fighter yaseRussia iSu-24 “Fencer”, eqhathaniswa ne-US F111, iyakwazi ukugijima 960 amamayela ngehora endaweni ephakeme, kodwa endaweni ephansi yayo isivinini sokuhamba singama-870 mph, noma cishe amamayela angu-13 ngomzuzu. Itilosi yendiza yesibili Kuqinisekisiwe ngemuva kokuhlengwa kwakhe ukuthi ama-Su-24s abendiza ngesivinini ngesikhathi sendiza.
Vala ukuhlaziywa kokubili Izithombe zesiTurkey nesiRashiya zendlela ye-radar Amajethi aseRussia akhombisa ukuthi indawo yokuqala lapho enye yezindiza zaseRussia yayisendleleni okungenzeka ukuthi ihunyushwe ngokuthi iyiyisa endaweni yezindiza yaseTurkey yayicishe ibe ngamamayela ayi-16 ukusuka emngceleni waseTurkey - okusho ukuthi kwakuyimizuzu nemizuzwana engama-20 kuphela. kude nomngcele.
Ngaphezu kwalokho ngokwazo zombili izinguqulo zendlela yendiza, imizuzu emihlanu ngaphambi kokudubula izindiza zaseRussia bezizondizela empumalanga - kude kusukela emngceleni waseTurkey.
Uma abashayeli bezindiza baseTurkey empeleni beqala ukuxwayisa izindiza zaseRussia imizuzu emihlanu ngaphambi kokudutshulwa, ngakho-ke, babekwenza isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba izindiza ziqondise ohlangothini olujwayelekile lomngcele omncane waseTurkey esifundazweni saseNyakatho Latakia.
Ukuze kuqhutshwe isiteleka, empeleni, abashayeli bezindiza baseTurkey bekuzodingeka babe semoyeni futhi balungele ukushaya ngokushesha lapho bazi ukuthi indiza yaseRussia indiza.
Ngakho-ke ubufakazi obuvela ezikhulwini zaseTurkey ngokwazo bushiya indawo encane yokungabaza ukuthi isinqumo sokudubula indiza yaseRussia senziwe ngaphambi kokuba izindiza zaseRussia ziqale nokundiza.
Inhloso yesiteleka yayihlobene ngqo neqhaza laseTurkey ekusekeleni amabutho alwa ne-Assad eduze komngcele. Empeleni uhulumeni ka-Erdogan awenzanga mzamo wokufihla inhloso yawo ezinsukwini ezandulela isiteleka. Emhlanganweni nenxusa laseRussia ngomhla zingama-20 kuLwezi, ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle wasola abaseRussia “ngokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu okunamandla” “kwemizana yabantu baseTurkmen” futhi. uthe kungase kube "nemiphumela emibi" ngaphandle uma amaRussia aqeda imisebenzi yawo ngokushesha.
UNdunankulu waseTurkey u-Ahmet Davutoglu bekucace nakakhulu, ememezela ukuthi amabutho ezokuphepha aseTurkey "ayalelwe ukuthi aziphindiselele kunoma iyiphi intuthuko engasongela ukuphepha komngcele waseTurkey". UDavutoglu uqhube wathi: "Uma kuba nokuhlasela okungaholela ekuthelekeni kwababaleki eTurkey, kuzothathwa izinyathelo ezidingekayo ngaphakathi kweSyria naseTurkey."
Usongo lwaseTurkey lokuziphindiselela - hhayi ekungeneni kweRussia endaweni yayo yezindiza kodwa ngokuphendula izimo ezichazwe kabanzi emngceleni - lweza phakathi kwakamuva ochungechungeni lwezimpi phakathi kukahulumeni waseSyria nabalweli bezenkolo. Indawo lapho indiza edutshulwe khona igcwele abantu abambalwa baseTurkmen. Ababalulekile kakhulu kunabalwi bamazwe angaphandle kanye namanye amabutho asebenze uchungechunge lwezigameko zokuhlasela endaweni kusukela maphakathi no-2013 okuhloswe ngazo ukusongela uMengameli u-Assad oyinhloko ye-Alawite ogwini esifundazweni saseLatakia.
UCharles Lister, uchwepheshe waseBrithani owayevakashela isifundazwe saseLatakia njalo ngo-2013, kuphawulwe engxoxweni ka-August 2013, “ILatakia, kuze kuyofika esicongweni esisenyakatho [okungukuthi endaweni yaseTurkmen Mountain], isiyisizinda samaqembu alwela impi yakwamanye amazwe isikhathi esingangonyaka manje.” Uphinde waphawula ukuthi, ngemuva kokuthi i-Islamic State (IS) iqhamuke enyakatho, i-al-Nusra Front kanye nabalingani bayo endaweni "bafinyelele" ku-ISIL nokuthi elinye lamaqembu alwayo eLatakia "labe seliyiqembu eliphambili" okwe-ISIL.
NgoMashi 2014 amavukelambuso enkolo aqala ukuhlasela okukhulu ngokusekelwa kanzima kwempahla yaseTurkey ukuze athathe idolobha lase-Armenia i-Kessab ogwini lwaseMedithera eLatakia eduze kakhulu nomngcele waseTurkey. Iphephandaba lase-Istanbul, i-Bagcilar, ucaphune ilungu lekomiti lezindaba zangaphandle ephalamende laseTurkey njengobufakazi obubikayo obuvela kubantu basemaphandleni abahlala eduze komngcele bokuthi izinkulungwane zezilwi ziye zawela ezindaweni ezinhlanu ezihlukene ezimotweni ezinamapuleti aseSyria ukuze zibambe iqhaza ekuhlaseleni.
Ngaleso sikhathi sokuhlasela, ngaphezu kwalokho, indiza yaseSyria eyayiphendula ukuhlaselwa kukaKessab kwaba wadutshulwa umbutho wezempi waseTurkey ngokufana okuphawulekayo nokudilizwa kwendiza yaseRussia. I-Turkey ithe indiza yephule indawo yayo yezindiza kodwa ayizange yenze sengathi yanikeza isexwayiso kusengaphambili. Inhloso yokuzama ukuvimba iSyria ekusebenziseni amandla ayo endiza ukuvikela idolobha yayisobala.
Manje impi esifundazweni saseLatakia isishintshele endaweni yaseBayirbucak, lapho amabutho asemoyeni aseSyria kanye namasosha angaphansi uzama ukusika imigqa yokuhlinzeka phakathi kwamadolobhana alawulwa yiNusra Front nabalingani bayo kanye nomngcele waseTurkey izinyanga ezimbalwa. Idolobhana elibalulekile endaweni yokulawula yaseNusra Front yiSalma, ebilokhu isezandleni zamajihadi kusukela ngo-2012. Ukungenelela kweRussian Air Force empini kunikeze inzuzo entsha ebuthweni laseSyria.
Ngakho-ke ukudubula kweTurkey bekuyimizamo yokuvimbela amaRussia ukuthi aqhubeke nokusebenza endaweni ngokumelene ne-al-Nusra Front kanye nabalingani bayo, besebenzisa izaba ezimbili ezihlukene: ngakolunye uhlangothi icala elibi kakhulu lomngcele waseRussia. Ukungena kwabalingani be-NATO, kanti ngakolunye, icala lokuqhumisa amabhomu izakhamizi zaseTurkmen ezilalelini zasekhaya zaseTurkey.
Ukungabaza kwabaphathi baka-Obama ukubhekana ngodaba oluqondile lwalapho indiza eyadutshulwa khona kukhomba ukuthi ilazi kahle lelo qiniso. Kepha abaphathi bazibophezele kakhulu kunqubomgomo yabo yokusebenzisana neTurkey, iSaudi Arabia kanye neQatar ukuphoqa ukuguqulwa kombuso ukuveza iqiniso ngalesi sigameko.
Ukusabela kuka-Obama ekudutshulweni kwamacala kusola inkinga kumasosha aseRussia abeyingxenye yeSyria. "Basebenza eduze kakhulu nomngcele waseTurkey," esho, futhi uma amaRussia engagxila kuphela ku-Daesh, "ezinye zalezi zingxabano noma amathuba okuba namaphutha noma ukwanda mancane amathuba okuthi kwenzeke."
-I-Gareth Porter uyintatheli ephenyayo ezimele futhi owine uMklomelo we-Gellhorn ka-2012 wobuntatheli. Ungumbhali we-Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare esanda kushicilelwa.
