Okwamanje lapho abaphathi beBiden bebonakala bephindaphinda kabili engxabanweni yase-Ukraine, TomDispatch Njalo U-Rajan Menon ubheka ngokucophelela ukuthi leyo mpi empeleni ibiza ngani umhlaba wethu futhi, ngikholwe, yindaba ebuhlungu ongayiboni ixoxwa kulezi zinsuku. Ngokudabukisayo, njengoba ukulwa kuqhubeka (futhi kuqhubeke), ngenkathi iWashington itshalwa imali eyengeziwe kulokho kuqhubekela phambili, izindleko kithi sonke kule planethi ziyanda.
Futhi akuyona nje indaba yokuphusha uVladimir Putin konke-kakhulu-nuclearized sekela udonga noma isihloko, njengongqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseRussia muva nje yibeke, ngeMpi Yezwe Yesithathu okungenzeka ibe khona. Khumbula ukuthi ukugxila ngokuphelele enkingeni yase-Ukraine kusho ukuphinda uqinisekise ukuthi ubungozi obujulile kule planethi, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, kungathatha isihlalo saphakade eMpini Yomshoshaphansi yesibili.
Futhi khumbula, impi ayisebenzi kahle nasekhaya. Sekuvele kusobala ukuthi, emehlweni abantu abaningi baseMelika, uJoe Biden akasoze abe “ngumongameli wezempi” okufanele ahlangane ngakhona. Ucwaningo luphakamisa ukuthi iningi lethu, okungcono kakhulu, "utwayi” mayelana neqhaza lakhe empini kuze kube manje futhi Hlukanisa kulokho okufanele akwenze ngezenzo zakhe (njengokunye nokunye). Futhi ungathembeli empini esiza amaDemocrats okhethweni ngoNovemba, hhayi ngokukhuphuka kwamandla emali. Iplanethi ekhulayo enesiphithiphithi ebonakala ingasalawuleki ingase ibeke amaTrumpists e-Republican Party esihlalweni iminyaka eminingi ezayo - elinye iphupho elibi le-oda lokuqala. Unalokho engqondweni, cabanga noRajan Menon ukuthi ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine sekuvele kuyinhlekelele kangakanani kwabaningi kulo mhlaba wethu olimele. Tom
Ngo-1919, isazi sezomnotho esidumile saseBrithani uJohn Maynard Keynes wabhala Imiphumela Yezomnotho Yokuthula, incwadi engaba impikiswano ngempela. Kuyo, uxwayise ngokuthi imigomo enzima eyabekwa eJalimane ehluliwe ngemuva kwalokho eyayaziwa ngokuthi iMpi Enkulu - manje esesiyibiza ngeMpi Yezwe I - yayizoba nemiphumela elimazayo hhayi kulelo zwe kuphela kodwa lonke elaseYurophu. Namuhla, ngiguqule isihloko sakhe ukuze sihlole imiphumela yezomnotho yempi (encane kunenkulu) eqhubekayo manje - leyo ese-Ukraine, vele - hhayi nje kulabo abahilelekile ngokuqondile kodwa emhlabeni wonke.
Akumangalisi ukuthi ngemva kokuhlasela kweRussia mhla zingama-24 kuNhlolanja, ukusabalala kugxile kakhulu ekulweni kwansuku zonke; ukucekelwa phansi kwempahla yezomnotho yase-Ukraine, kusukela ezakhiweni namabhuloho kuya ezimbonini nakuwo wonke amadolobha; usizi lwabo bobabili ababaleki base-Ukraine kanye nabantu abaxoshwe ngaphakathi, noma ama-IDP; kanye nobufakazi obandayo bezenzo zonya. Imiphumela yezomnotho yesikhathi eside engaba khona yempi ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwe-Ukraine ayizange idonse ukunaka okungako, ngezizathu eziqondakalayo. Ane-visceral encane futhi, ngokwencazelo, ayashesha kancane. Nokho le mpi izodala umonakalo omkhulu kwezomnotho, hhayi e-Ukraine kuphela kodwa nakubantu abampofu kakhulu abahlala kude nezinkulungwane zamakhilomitha. Amazwe anothile nawo azobhekana nemiphumela emibi yempi, kodwa akwazi kangcono ukubhekana nazo.
I-Ukraine ephukile
Abanye balindele ukuthi le mpi iqhubeke iminyaka, ngisho amashumi eminyaka, nakuba lokho kulinganisa kubonakala kufiphele kakhulu. Esikwaziyo, nokho, ukuthi, ngisho nezinyanga ezimbili kudlule, ukulahlekelwa kwezomnotho e-Ukraine kanye nosizo lwangaphandle lelo lizwe elizoludinga ukuze likwazi ukufeza noma yini efana nalokho okwake kwadlula kokujwayelekile kuyamangaza.
Ake siqale ngababaleki base-Ukraine kanye nama-IDP. Ehlangene, la maqembu amabili asevele akha ama-29% yenani labantu bezwe. Ukubeka lokho ngombono, zama ukucabanga amaMelika ayizigidi ezingu-97 azithola esenkingeni enjalo ezinyangeni ezimbili ezizayo.
Kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-April, 5.4 abayizigidi ezingu Abase-Ukraine babebalekele izwe balibangisa ePoland nakwamanye amazwe angomakhelwane. Yize abaningi - izilinganiso zihluka phakathi kwezinkulungwane ezimbalwa nesigidi - seziqalile ukubuya, akucaci noma zizokwazi yini ukuhlala (yingakho izibalo ze-UN zibakhipha ngaphandle esilinganisweni sayo senani eliphelele lababaleki). Uma impi iba yimbi futhi yenza iNokho, eminyakeni edlule, ukufuduka okuqhubekayo kwababaleki kungase kubangele inani elingenakucatshangwa namuhla.
Lokho kuzofaka ubunzima obukhulu emazweni azowasingatha, ikakhulukazi iPoland, esivele yavuma cishe izigidi ezintathu ababalekela Ukraine. Ukulinganisa okukodwa kokuthi kubiza malini ukubahlinzeka ngezidingo eziyisisekelo $ 30 billion. Futhi lokho okonyaka owodwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho lokho kubikezelwa kwakunababaleki abambalwa ngesigidi kunamanje. Engeza kulokho 7.7 abayizigidi ezingu Abantu base-Ukraine abashiye amakhaya abo kodwa hhayi izwe ngokwalo. Izindleko zokwenza zonke lezi zimpilo ziphinde zibe ngcono.
Lapho impi isiphelile futhi labo bantu base-Ukraine abayizigidi eziyi-12.8 baqala ukuzama ukwakha kabusha izimpilo zabo, abaningi bazothola ukuthi amafulethi kanye nezindlu azisamile noma azihlali. I izibhedlela nemitholampilo babethembele kuzo, izindawo ababesebenza kuzo, ezezingane zabo izikole, izitolo kanye izindawo zokudlela eKyiv nase kwenye indawo lapho abathenge khona izidingo eziyisisekelo kungenzeka ukuthi zicekelwe phansi noma zonakaliswe kabi, futhi. Umnotho wase-Ukraine kulindeleke ukuthi wenze inkontileka ngama-45% kulo nyaka kuphela, okungamangazi uma kubhekwa ukuthi ingxenye yamabhizinisi ayo ayisebenzi futhi, ngokusho kombiko. Ibhange Lomhlaba, ukuthunyelwa kwayo ogwini olusuka ogwini lwayo oluseningizimu olunezingxabano kuphele ngempumelelo. Ukubuyela ngisho nasemazingeni angaphambi kwempi yokukhiqiza kuzothatha okungenani iminyaka eminingana.
Mayelana ingxenye yesithathu yengqalasizinda yase-Ukraine (amabhuloho, imigwaqo, imizila yezitimela, izakhiwo zamanzi, nokunye okunjalo) isivele ilimele noma ibhidliziwe. Ukuyilungisa noma ukuyakha kabusha kuzodinga phakathi $ 60 billion futhi $ 119 billion. UNgqongqoshe Wezezimali wase-Ukraine ucabanga ukuthi uma ukukhiqizwa okulahlekile, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, kanye nemali engenayo kwengezwa, umonakalo owenziwe yimpi usuvele udlula. $ 500 billion. Lokho cishe kuliphinda kane inani le-Ukraine umkhiqizo wasekhaya ophelele ngo-2020.
Futhi khumbula, izibalo ezinjalo ziyizilinganiso ezinhle kakhulu. Izindleko zangempela ngokungangabazeki zizoba phezulu futhi ziyisamba esikhulu sosizo oluvela ezinhlanganweni zezezimali zamazwe ngamazwe nasemazweni aseNtshonalanga adingeka eminyakeni ezayo. Emhlanganweni obizwe yi-International Monetary Fund (IMF) kanye neBhange Lomhlaba, uNdunankulu wase-Ukraine Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukwakhiwa kabusha kwezwe lakhe kuzodinga amabhiliyoni angama-600 nokuthi udinga amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu ngenyanga ezinyangeni ezinhlanu ezizayo ukuze nje aqinise isabelomali salo. Zombili lezi zinhlangano sezivele zasukumela phezulu. Ekuqaleni kukaNdasa, i-IMF yagunyaza a $ 1.4 billion Imalimboleko ephuthumayo ye-Ukraine kanye neBhange Lomhlaba eyengeziwe $ 723 million. Futhi lokho kuqinisekile ukuthi kuyisiqalo nje sokugeleza kwezimali kwesikhathi eside e-Ukraine zivela kulabo babolekisi ababili, kuyilapho ohulumeni baseNtshonalanga ngabanye kanye ne-European Union ngokungangabazeki bazohlinzeka ngezimali zabo ezibolekiwe kanye nezibonelelo.
Emazweni aseNtshonalanga: I-Inflation Ephakeme, Ukukhula Okuphansi
Ukushaqeka komnotho okudalwe yimpi kakade sekulimaza umnotho waseNtshonalanga futhi ubuhlungu buzokhula kuphela. Ukukhula komnotho emazweni acebe kakhulu ase-Europe kwaba ngu-5.9% ngo-2021. I-IMF ulindele ukuthi izokwehla ifike ku-3.2% ngo-2022 futhi iye ku-2.2% ngo-2023. Khonamanjalo, phakathi kukaFebhuwari noMashi walo nyaka, ukwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu. angena ngomfutho kusuka ku-5.9% kuya ku-7.9%. Futhi lokho kubukeka kunesizotha uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yamandla aseYurophu. NgoNdasa base bevele benyuke kakhulu 45% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
Izindaba ezinhle, kubika i Izikhathi Zezezimali, ukuthi ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kwehle kwaze kwaba ngaphansi kwerekhodi elingu-6.8%. Izindaba ezimbi: ukwehla kwamandla emali kudlula amaholo, ngakho-ke abasebenzi bebehola kancane ngo-3%.
Ngokuqondene ne-United States, ukukhula komnotho, kulindeleke ku- 3.7% ngo-2022, kungenzeka kube ngcono kunomnotho ohamba phambili waseYurophu. Nokho, iBhodi Lenkomfa, isikhungo sokucabanga samabhizinisi angamalungu angu-2,000, silindele ukukhula kwehle kufinyelele ku-2.2% ngo-2023. Khonamanjalo, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lase-US lifinyelele 8.54% ngasekupheleni kuka-March. Lokho kuphindwe kabili kunalokho obekuyikho ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezedlule futhi okuphezulu kakhulu okube khona kusukela lapho 1981. UJerome Powell, usihlalo weFederal Reserve, uye waxwayiswa ukuthi impi izodala ukwehla kwamandla emali okwengeziwe. New York Times umlobeli wengosi nesazi sezomnotho uPaul Krugman ukholelwa ukuthi lizokwehla, kodwa uma kunjalo, umbuzo uwukuthi: Nini futhi ngokushesha kangakanani? Ngaphandle kwalokho, u-Krugman ulindele ukukhuphuka kwentengo kuba kubi kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba baqale ukukhululeka. I-Fed inganqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokuqopha amanani enzalo, kodwa lokho kungase kugcine kwehlisa ukukhula komnotho. Ngempela, i-Deutsche Bank yenza izindaba ngo-Ephreli 26th ngesibikezelo sayo sokuthi impi ye-Fed ngokumelene nokwehla kwamandla emali izodala "ukwehla okukhulu komnotho” e-US ngasekupheleni konyaka ozayo.
Kanye ne-Europe kanye ne-US, i-Asia-Pacific, isizinda sezomnotho sesithathu emhlabeni, ngeke siphunyuke ngaphandle kokulinyazwa. Ibala imiphumela yempi, i I-IMF yehlise isibikezelo sayo sokukhula kwalesi sifunda ngomunye u-0.5% saya ku-4.9% kulo nyaka uma kuqhathaniswa no-6.5% ngonyaka odlule. Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-Asia-Pacific kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi kunyuke emazweni amaningi.
Izindlela ezinjalo ezingamukelekile azikwazi ukuthi zibangelwa impi yodwa. Umqedazwe we-Covid-19 udale izinkinga emikhakheni eminingi futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kwase kukhuphuka ngaphambi kokuhlasela, kepha kuzokwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu. Cabangela izintengo zamandla kusukela ngomhla zingama-24 kuNhlolanja, usuku okwaqala ngalo impi. I intengo kawoyela ngaleso sikhathi yayingama-$89 umgqomo. Ngemuva kwama-zig nama-zags kanye nenani eliphakeme lika-March 9 lika-$119, lazinza (okungenani okwamanje) ngo-$104.7 ngo-April 28rd - ukweqa okungu-17.6% ezinyangeni ezimbili. Izikhalazo ze US futhi British ohulumeni baya eSaudi Arabia nase-United Arab Emirates ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela abazange baye ndawo, ngakho akekho okufanele alindele ukukhululeka okusheshayo.
Amanani we- ukuthunyelwa kwesitsha futhi imithwalo yomoya, esesivele ihanjwe yilolu bhubhane, yakhuphuka ngokuqhubekayo kulandela ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kanye ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain kwaba kubi kakhulu futhi. Izintengo zokudla nazo zenyuka, hhayi nje ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu zamandla kodwa futhi ngenxa yokuthi iRussia yenza cishe u-18%. ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kakolweni (kanye ne-Ukraine 8%), kuyilapho ingxenye ye-Ukraine yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kommbila 16% futhi amazwe womabili ehlangene alandisa ngaphezu kwekota kakolweni othunyelwa emhlabeni wonke, isitshalo esibalulekile emazweni amaningi.
I-Russia ne-Ukraine nayo ikhiqiza 80% wamafutha kabhekilanga emhlabeni, asetshenziswa kakhulu ekuphekeni. Ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kanye nokushoda kwalolu shintsho sekuvele kubonakala, hhayi e-European Union kuphela, kodwa nasezingxenyeni ezimpofu kakhulu zomhlaba njenge Emaphakathi Mpumalanga futhi India, ethola cishe konke ukutholakala kwayo eRussia nase-Ukraine. Ngaphezu kwalokho, 70% Ukuthunyelwa kwe-Ukraine kwamanye amazwe kuthuthwa ngemikhumbi futhi kokubili uLwandle Olumnyama noLwandle Lwase-Azov manje kuyizindawo zempi.
Usizi Lwamazwe “Aneholo Eliphansi”
Ukukhula kancane, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, kanye nezinga eliphezulu lenzalo elibangelwa imizamo yamabhange amakhulu yokuqeda ukwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nokwenyuka kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi, kuzolimaza abantu abahlala emazweni aseNtshonalanga, ikakhulukazi abampofu kakhulu phakathi kwabo abasebenzisa ingxenye enkulu kakhulu yeholo labo. ezidingweni eziyisisekelo njengokudla negesi. Kodwa “amazwe anemali ephansi” (ngokusho kweBhange Lomhlaba definition, labo abanesilinganiso semali engenayo ngonyaka ngomuntu ngamunye ngaphansi kuka-$1,045 ngo-2020), ikakhulukazi izakhamuzi zabo ezimpofu kakhulu, bazoshayeka kakhulu. Uma kubhekwa izidingo ezinkulu zezezimali zase-Ukraine kanye nokuzimisela kwamazwe aseNtshonalanga ukuhlangabezana nazo, amazwe anengeniso ephansi cishe akuthola kunzima kakhulu ukuthola uxhaso lwemali yokukhokha izikweletu azozikweleta ngenxa yokwenyuka kokuboleka ukuze kukhokhelwe izindleko ezikhuphukayo zokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi okubalulekile njengamandla nokudla. Engeza kulokho imali engenayo encishisiwe ngenxa yokukhula kancane komnotho womhlaba.
Ubhubhane lwe-Covid-19 beseluvele luphoqe amazwe anemali ephansi ukuthi abhekane nesivunguvungu somnotho ngokuboleka okwengeziwe, kepha inzalo ephansi yenza isikweletu sawo, esesivele sirekhodiwe. $ 860 billion, kulula ukuyiphatha. Manje, ngokukhula komnotho emhlabeni wonke kanye nezindleko zamandla nokudla zikhuphuka, bazophoqeleka ukuthi baboleke ngamanani enzalo aphezulu kakhulu, okuzokwandisa umthwalo wabo wokukhokha.
Ngesikhathi ubhadane, 60% amazwe anemali ephansi engenayo adinga ukukhululeka ezibophweni zawo zokukhokha izikweletu (uma kuqhathaniswa nama-30% ngo-2015). Amazinga enzalo aphezulu, kanye namanani aphezulu okudla namandla, manje azokwenza isimo sabo sibe sibi nakakhulu. Ngokwesibonelo, kule nyanga, i-Sri Lanka yehluleka ukukhokhela isikweletu sayo. Osomnotho abaqavile xwayisa ngokuthi lokho kungase kubonakale kuyi-bellwether, njengoba amanye amazwe ethanda Egypt, Pakistan, Futhi Tunisia babhekane nezinkinga zezikweletu ezifanayo njengoba impi ishubisa kakhulu. Ehlangene, amazwe ahola kancane angama-74 ayekweleta $ 35 billion ekukhokhweni kwezikweletu kulo nyaka, inyuke ngo-45% isuka ku-2020.
Futhi lawo, khumbula, awathathwa ngisho namazwe ahola kancane. Kubo, i-IMF isebenze ngokujwayelekile njengombolekisi wendlela yokugcina, kodwa ingabe bazokwazi ukuthembela osizweni lwayo lapho i-Ukraine nayo idinga ukubolekwa imali ngokuphuthumayo? I-IMF kanye neBhange Lomhlaba bangafuna iminikelo eyengeziwe emazweni abo angamalungu acebile, kodwa ingabe bazoyithola, lapho lawo mazwe ebhekene nezinkinga zezomnotho ezikhulayo futhi ekhathazeka ngabavoti bawo abathukuthele?
Kunjalo, lapho umthwalo wezikweletu umkhulu emazweni anemali engenayo ephansi, yilapho ezokwazi khona ukusiza izakhamuzi zawo ezimpofu kakhulu ukuphatha amanani aphakeme ezinto ezibalulekile, ikakhulukazi ukudla. Inkomba yentengo yokudla yeNhlangano Yezokudla Nezolimo inyukile 12.6% kusukela ngoNhlolanja kuya kuNdasa futhi besele liphezulu ngama-33.6% kunonyaka odlule.
Ukukhuphuka kwamanani kakolweni - ngesinye isikhathi, inani lentengo ngebhakede ngalinye cishe kabili ngaphambi kokuzinza ezingeni le-38% ephakeme kunangonyaka odlule - sebevele badala ukushoda kukafulawa nesinkwa eGibhithe, eLebanon naseTunisia, engakaze ibuke e-Ukraine phakathi kuka-25% no-80% kakolweni wabo ovela kwamanye amazwe. Amanye amazwe, njengawo Pakistan kanye Bangladesh - owokuqala uthenga cishe u-40% kakolweni wawo e-Ukraine, u-50% wokugcina ovela eRussia nase-Ukraine - angabhekana nenkinga efanayo.
Indawo ehlushwa kakhulu ngenxa yokwenyuka kwentengo yokudla kungenzeka kube yiYemen, izwe osekuyiminyaka likhungethwe yimpi yombango futhi libhekane nokushoda kokudla okungapheli kanye nendlala ngaphambi kokuba iRussia ihlasele i-Ukraine. Amaphesenti angamashumi amathathu kakolweni waseYemen ongenisiwe avela e-Ukraine futhi, ngenxa yokuncipha kokutholakala okudalwe yimpi, intengo ngekhilogremu isivele ikhuphuke cishe ngokuphindwe kahlanu eningizimu yayo. I Uhlelo Lokudla Lomhlaba (I-WFP) ibisebenzisa enye imali eyizigidi eziyishumi zamaRandi ngenyanga ekusebenzeni kwayo lapho, njengoba cishe abantu abangama-10 bengabhekana “nezimo ezinjengendlala” kanti izigidi eziyisi-200,000 sezizonke zizobhekana “namazinga aphuthumayo endlala.” Inkinga ayigcini emazweni afana neYemen, noma kunjalo. Ngokusho kwe I-WFP, abantu abayizigidi ezingu-276 emhlabeni wonke babhekana “nendlala enkulu” ngisho nangaphambi kokuba impi iqale futhi uma iqhubeka ehlobo ezinye izigidi ezingu-27 kuya kwezingu-33 zingase zizithole zikuleso simo esibucayi.
Ukuphuthuma Kokuthula - Futhi Hhayi Kwabase-Ukraine Kuphela
Ubukhulu bezimali ezidingekayo ukuze kwakhiwe kabusha i-Ukraine, ukubaluleka okunamathiselwe yi-US, iBrithani, i-European Union, kanye ne-Japan kulowo mgomo, kanye nezindleko ezikhulayo zokuthengwa kwempahla evela kwamanye amazwe kuzobeka amazwe ampofu kakhulu emhlabeni endaweni yezomnotho enzima nakakhulu. Ngokuqinisekile, abantu abampofu emazweni acebile nabo basengozini, kodwa labo abampofu kakhulu bayohlupheka kakhulu.
Abaningi kakade abasindi ngokulambisa futhi abanalo inqwaba yezinsiza zezenhlalakahle ezitholwa abampofu emazweni acebile. Inetha laseMelika lokuphepha komphakathi threadbare uma kuqhathaniswa nama-analogues ayo aseYurophu, kodwa okungenani lapho is into enjalo. Akunjalo emazweni ampofu kakhulu. Lapho, inhlanhla encane bayithola ngosizo oluncane, uma lukhona, oluvela kohulumeni babo. Kuphela 20% yazo ihlanganiswa nganoma iyiphi indlela izinhlelo ezinjalo.
Abampofu kakhulu emhlabeni abanalo icala ngempi yase-Ukraine futhi abanawo amandla okuyiqeda. Ngaphandle kwabase-Ukraine uqobo, bazolinyazwa kakhulu ngokunwetshwa kwayo. Abampofu kakhulu phakathi kwabo abavinjelwa amaRussia noma babanjwe futhi babhekane nobugebengu bempi njengezakhamuzi zedolobha lase-Ukraine. bhusha. Noma kunjalo, kubo, futhi, ukuqeda impi kuyindaba yokuphila noma ukufa. Lokho okuningi ababelana ngakho nabantu base-Ukraine.
Copyright 2022 Rajan Menon
Rajan Menon, a TomDispatch Njalo, u-Anne noBernard Spitzer UProfesa Wezobudlelwano Bamazwe Ngamazwe e-Powell School, City College of New York, umqondisi we-Grand Strategy Program at Defence Priorities, kanye ne-Senior Research Scholar e-Saltzman Institute of War and Peace e-Columbia University.. Ungumbhali, muva nje, we Ukuziqhenya Kokungenelela Kwabantu.
