I-War Scare yango-1983: Isikhathi Esiyingozi Kakhulu Sempi Yomshoshaphansi?

Lo Mgqibelo odlule bekuwumkhosi weminyaka engama-77 wokuqhunyiswa kwebhomu leathomu ngo-Agasti 6, 1945 eHiroshima, kuyilapho uLwesibili kukhunjulwa ukuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu kuka-August 9 eNagasaki, okuboniswe lapha. Ezweni lapho ukungezwani phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi kusezingeni eliphezulu, kungabuzwa ngobuqotho ukuthi siyofika yini endaweni yama-78 ngaphandle kokuthi kuphinde kusetshenziswe amabhomu enuzi. Kubalulekile ukuthi sikhumbule izifundo zomunye weMpi Yomshoshaphansi wokuvala ucingo lwenuzi lapho, njenganamuhla, kunqamuka ukuxhumana phakathi kwemibuso yenuzi.

Ibhalwe nguPatrick Mazza, Igwababa, Ngo-September 26, i-2022

Ucingo oluseduze lwe-nuclear lwe-Able Archer '83

Onqenqemeni ngingazi

Kwakuyisikhathi sokushuba kwesimo phakathi kwe-United States neSoviet Union, lapho iziteshi zokuxhumana zaziwohloka futhi uhlangothi ngalunye luhumusha ngokungeyikho izisusa zolunye. Kubangele lokho okungase kube ibhulashi eliseduze kakhulu lokuqothulwa kwezikhali zenuzi eMpini Yomshoshaphansi. Okwethusayo nakakhulu, uhlangothi olulodwa aluzange luyibone ingozi kwaze kwaba ngemva kweqiniso.

Ngesonto lesibili likaNovemba 1983, i-NATO yenza i-Able Archer, umsebenzi ofanisa ukukhuphuka kwempi yenuzi engxabanweni yaseYurophu phakathi kwentshonalanga namaSoviet. Ubuholi baseSoviet, besaba ukuthi i-US yayihlela isiteleka sokuqala senuzi eSoviet Union, basola kakhulu ukuthi u-Able Archer wayengeyena umsebenzi, kodwa isembozo sento yangempela. Izingxenye zamanoveli zalo msebenzi zaqinisa inkolelo yabo. Amabutho enuzi aseSoviet aqaphe ngeso lokhozi, futhi abaholi kungenzeka bacabange isiteleka sangaphambi kwesikhathi. Amasosha ase-US, azi ngezenzo zeSoviet ezingavamile kodwa engazi incazelo yazo, aqhubeka nomsebenzi.

Isikhathi sithathwa ochwepheshe abaningi njengomzuzu weMpi Yomshoshaphansi nengozi enkulu yokungqubuzana kwezikhali zenuzi kusukela ngo-1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, lapho i-US ibhekene namaSoviet mayelana nokubekwa kwemicibisholo yenuzi kuleso siqhingi. Kepha ngokungafani nenkinga yaseCuba, i-US yayiyifice ingozi. URobert Gates, owayeyiphini likamqondisi weCIA, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi wathi, "Kungenzeka ukuthi kade sisonqenqemeni lwempi yenuzi futhi singazi."

Kuthathe iminyaka ukuthi iziphathimandla zasentshonalanga ziqonde ngokugcwele ingozi umhlaba owawubhekene nayo ku-Able Archer '83. Abakwazanga ukuqonda ukuthi abaholi baseSoviet empeleni besaba isiteleka sokuqala, futhi bachitha izinkomba ezivela ngemuva nje kokuzivocavoca njengenkulumo-ze yamaSoviet. Kodwa njengoba isithombe sikhula sicaca, uRonald Reagan waqaphela ukuthi inkulumo yakhe evuthayo phakathi neminyaka emithathu yokuqala yokuphatha kukamongameli yadla ukwesaba kweSoviet, futhi esikhundleni salokho waxoxisana ngempumelelo nezivumelwano namaSoviet zokunciphisa izikhali zenuzi.

Namuhla lezo zivumelwano ziyakhanselwa noma zisekelwe ekusekeleni ukuphila, kuyilapho izingxabano phakathi kwesifunda sasentshonalanga neSoviet Union eyalandela, iRussian Federation, zisezingeni elingenakuqhathaniswa ngisho naseMpini Yomshoshaphansi. Ukuxhumana kwephukile futhi izingozi zenuzi ziya ngokushuba. Khonamanjalo, ukungezwani kuyanda neChina, elinye izwe elihlome ngezikhali zenuzi. Ezinsukwini ngemuva kwemigubho yeminyaka engama-77 yokuqhunyiswa kwebhomu le-athomu lika-Agasti 6, 1945 kanye nokubulawa kuka-August 9 kweNagasaki, umhlaba unezizathu ezizwakalayo zokubuza ukuthi sizofinyelela yini ku-78 ngaphandle kwezikhali zenuzi ezisetshenziswa futhi.

Esikhathini esinjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula izifundo zika-Able Archer '83, mayelana nokuthi kwenzekani lapho ukungezwani phakathi kwamandla amakhulu kukhula ngenkathi ukuxhumana kuphelile. Ngenhlanhla, eminyakeni yamuva nje kushicilelwe izincwadi ezimbalwa ezijula ​​ngokujulile kule nkinga, okuholele kuyo, kanye nemiphumela yayo. 1983: I-Reagan, i-Andropov, kanye ne-World on the Brink, nguTaylor Downing, kanye I-Brink: UMongameli uReagan kanye ne-Nuclear War Scare ka-1983 nguMark Ambinder, xoxa indaba ngezindlela ezihluke kancane. I-Able Archer 83: Ukuzivocavoca Kwe-NATO Eyimfihlo Ecishe Yabangela Impi Yenuzi ngu-Nate Jones iwukulandisa okuhlangene okwengeziwe kwenganekwane ehambisana nomthombo wangempela wezinto ezitholakala ezinqolobaneni eziyimfihlo.

Isimangalo sokuqala esizuzisayo

UViktor Surikov, umakadebona wesakhiwo sokwakha imicibisholo yaseSoviet, kamuva watshela owayexoxisana noMnyango Wezokuvikela e-United States, uJohn Hines, ukuthi ngenxa yalolu lwazi, amaSoviet aseshintshele ekuhleleni isiteleka sangaphambi kwesikhathi. Ukube bebecabanga ukuthi i-US ibilungiselela ukwethula, bebezokwethula kuqala. Eqinisweni, balinganisa ukulungiselelwa okunjalo emsebenzini we-Zapad 1983.

U-Ambinder uyabhala, “Njengoba umjaho wezikhali ukhula ngesivinini, kwavela izinhlelo zempi yaseSoviet. Babengasalindele ukuphendula esitelekeni sokuqala esivela e-US Kunalokho, zonke izinhlelo zezimpi ezinkulu zazicabanga ukuthi amaSoviet azothola indlela yokushaya kuqala, ngoba, kalula nje, uhlangothi oluhlasele kuqala luyoba nethuba elihle lokuwina. .”

AmaSoviet ayekholelwa ukuthi i-US nayo yayinayo. “USurikov wathi ukholelwa ukuthi abenzi benqubomgomo yenuzi base-US babazi kahle ukuthi kunomehluko omkhulu emazingeni omonakalo e-United States ngaphansi kwezimo lapho i-United States iphumelele khona ukushaya imicibisholo ecitshwayo yaseSoviet kanye nezinhlelo zokulawula ingakaqali ngaphambi kokwethulwa. . , ” kubhala uJones. UHines wavuma “ukuthi i-United States ‘impela yayenze ukuhlaziya okunjalo’ kwesiteleka sokuqala esandulela iSoviet Union.”

I-US ngempela ibisebenzisa amasistimu "wokwethula isixwayiso" lapho ukuhlasela kubonwa njengokuseduze. Ukushayela amasu enuzi kwakuwukwesaba okubonakalayo phakathi kwabaholi kuzo zombili izinhlangothi ukuthi bangaba yizisulu zokuqala zokuhlasela kwenuzi.

“ . . . njengoba iMpi Yomshoshaphansi iqhubeka, yomibili imibuso emikhulu yazibona isengozini enkulu yesiteleka senuzi esinqamula amakhanda,” kubhala uJones. Olunye uhlangothi luzozama ukunqoba impi yenuzi ngokunquma ubuholi ngaphambi kokuthi lukhiphe imiyalelo yokuthi luziphindiselele. “Uma i-US ingaqeda ubuholi ekuqaleni kwempi, ingabeka imigomo yokubuqeda . . ,” kubhala u-Ambinder. Lapho abaholi baseRussia ngaphambi kwempi yamanje bememezela ubulungu be-NATO yase-Ukraine "umugqa obomvu" ngoba imicibisholo ebekwe lapho ingashaya iMoscow ngemizuzu embalwa, kwaba ukuphindaphinda kwalokho kwesaba.

I-Ambinder yenza ukujula okuningiliziwe kokuthi izinhlangothi zombili zibhekane kanjani nokwesaba ukunqunywa ikhanda futhi zihlele ukuvikela amandla okuziphindiselela. I-US yayiya ngokuya ikhathazeke ngokuthi imikhumbi-ngwenya ejikijelwayo yaseSoviet yayingasabonakali futhi ingabamba umcibisholo osuka ogwini ukuze ushaye iWashington, DC cishe imizuzu eyisithupha. UJimmy Carter, esazi kahle lesi simo, wayala ukuthi kubuyekezwe futhi wabeka uhlelo lokuqinisekisa ukuthi ozongena esikhundleni uzokwazi ukuyalela impindiselo futhi alwe ngisho nangemva kokushaywa kwe-White House.

Ukwesaba kweSoviet kuyaqina

“AbaseSoviet babekholelwa ukuthi abakwaPershing II bangafika eMoscow,” kubhala u-Ambinder, nakuba lokhu kwakungeke kube njalo. “Lokho kwakusho ukuthi ubuholi baseSoviet bungase bube kude nemizuzu emihlanu ukuthi bususwe noma nini uma sebetshaliwe. UBrezhnev, phakathi kwabanye, wakuqonda lokhu emathunjini akhe. "

Enkulumweni enkulu kubaholi bezizwe zeWarsaw Pact ngo-1983, u-Yuri Andropov, owalandela uBrezhnev ngemva kokushona kwakhe ngo-1982, wabiza leyo micibisholo ngokuthi “'umjikelezo omusha emjahweni wezikhali' owawuhluke kakhulu kunangaphambili," kubhala u-Downing. "Kwakucacile kuye ukuthi le micibisholo yayingekhona 'yokuvimbela' kodwa 'yayenzelwe impi yesikhathi esizayo,' futhi yayihloselwe ukunikeza i-US amandla okukhipha ubuholi baseSoviet 'empini yenuzi elinganiselwe' iMelika ekholelwa kuyo. kokubili 'angasinda futhi anqobe empini yenuzi ethatha isikhathi eside.'

U-Andropov, phakathi kwabaholi abaphezulu baseSoviet, nguye owayekholelwa kakhulu ukuthi i-US yayihlose impi. Enkulumweni eyimfihlo ngoMeyi 1981, lapho eseyisikhulu se-KGB, wagxeka uReagan futhi "okwamangaza abaningi ababekhona, wathi kunethuba elinamandla lesiteleka sokuqala senuzi se-US," kubhala u-Downing. UBrezhnev wayengomunye walabo ababekhona.

Kungaleso sikhathi lapho i-KGB kanye nozakwabo wezempi, i-GRU, benza umzamo wezobunhloli obaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni wonke wokuhogela izinkomba kusenesikhathi ukuthi i-US nentshonalanga bezilungiselela impi. Eyaziwa ngokuthi i-RYAN, isifinyezo saseRussia sesiteleka sezikhali zenuzi, sasihlanganisa amakhulukhulu ezinkomba, yonke into kusukela ekunyakazeni ezisekelweni zamasosha, ezindaweni zobuholi bukazwelonke, ekushayeleni igazi ngisho noma ngabe i-US yayihambisa amakhophi okuqala eSimemezelo Sokuzimela kanye Umthethosisekelo. Nakuba izinhloli zazinokungabaza, isisusa sokukhiqiza imibiko eyayifunwa ubuholi saveza ukuchema okuthile kokuqinisekisa, okuvame ukuqinisa ukwesaba kwabaholi.

Ekugcineni, imilayezo ye-RYAN ethunyelwe esiteshini senxusa le-KGB eLondon ngesikhathi se-Able Archer '83, eputshulwe yi-ejenti ephindwe kabili, izofakazela kubaholi basentshonalanga abangabazayo ukuthi amaSoviet ayethuke kangakanani ngaleso sikhathi. Leyo ngxenye yendaba izofika.

U-Reagan ukhuphula ukushisa

Inkulumo kaReagan isho ukujika kwe-détente kakade sekuqalile ngaphansi kweCarter Administration ngokuhlasela kweSoviet e-Afghanistan. Esithangamini sakhe sokuqala nabezindaba, wathi “i-détente ibiwumgwaqo oya ohlangothini olulodwa iSoviet Union ewusebenzise ukufeza izinhloso zayo . . . "Wayesho ukuthi akunakwenzeka ukuphilisana," kubhala uJones. Kamuva, ekhuluma nePhalamende laseBrithani ngo-1982, uReagan wacela “imashi yenkululeko nentando yeningi eyayiyoshiya ubuMarx-Leninism endundumeni yomlando . . . “

Nokho, ayikho inkulumo ebonakala yaba nethonya elikhulu ekucabangeni kwamaSoviet kunaleyo ayisho ngo-March 1983. Inhlangano yokumisa izikhali zenuzi ibilokhu igqugquzela izigidi ukuba ziphoqelele ukuba kumiswe izikhali zenuzi ezintsha. UReagan wayefuna izindawo zokuphikisa lokho, futhi enye yazinikela ngendlela yomhlangano waminyaka yonke weNational Association of Evangelicals. Le nkulumo ayizange ihlolwe nguMnyango Wezwe, owake wehlisela phansi inkulumo kaReagan. Lona bekuyinsimbi egcwele uRonald.

Lapho ecubungula iqhwa lenuzi, uReagan utshele iqembu, izimbangi zeCold War azinakubhekwa njengezilingana ngokuziphatha. Umuntu akanakuziba “izifiso ezinonya zombuso omubi . . . futhi ngalokho uzikhiphe emzabalazweni phakathi kokulungile nokungalungile nokuhle nokubi.” Ukhiphe umbhalo wokuqala, ebiza iSoviet Union ngokuthi “indawo egxile ebubini emhlabeni wanamuhla.” U-Ambinder ubika ukuthi uNancy Reagan kamuva “wakhononda kumyeni wakhe ngokuthi wayedlulele. 'Bawumbuso omubi,' kuphendula uReagan. “Sekuyisikhathi sokuyivala.”

Izinqubomgomo nezinkulumo zikaReagan “zathusa ubuholi bethu,” uJones ucaphuna u-Oleg Kalugin, inhloko yemisebenzi ye-KGB yase-US kwaze kwaba ngu-1980.

Izimpawu ezixutshiwe

U-Reagan wayekholelwa ukuthi angathola ukuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi kuphela ngokuzakha kuqala, ngakho-ke ukumiswa kwezingxoxo eziningi eminyakeni emibili yokuqala yokuphatha kwakhe. Ngo-1983, wazizwa ekulungele ukuhlanganyela. NgoJanuwari, wenza isiphakamiso sokuqeda zonke izikhali ezisezingeni eliphakathi, nakuba amaSoviet aqale akwenqaba, njengoba ayesongelwa yi-nukes yaseFrance neyaseBrithani. Kwathi ngoFebhuwari 15 waba nomhlangano we-White House neNxusa laseSoviet u-Anatoly Dobrynin.

“Umongameli wathi kwammangaza ukuthi abaseSoviet babezitshela ukuthi 'ungumshisekeli ohlanyayo.' 'Kodwa angifuni impi phakathi kwethu. Lokho kungaletha izinhlekelele ezingenakubalwa,'” kulandisa u-Ambinder. UDobrynin waphendula ngemizwa efanayo, kodwa wabiza ukwakheka kwezempi kukaReagan, okukhulu kunakho konke emlandweni wesikhathi sokuthula wase-US kuze kube yileso sikhathi, “njengosongo lwangempela ekuvikelekeni kwezwe lethu.” Encwadini yakhe yesikhumbuzo, uDobrynin wavuma ukudideka kweSoviet “ngokuhlasela kukaReagan okushubile komphakathi eSoviet Union” kuyilapho “ethumela ngasese . . . izimpawu ezifuna ubudlelwano obujwayelekile.”

Isibonakaliso esisodwa savela ngokucacile kumaSoviet, okungenani ekuchazeni kwawo. Emasontweni amabili ngemuva kwenkulumo ethi "umbuso omubi", uReagan uhlongoze ukuvikela imicibisholo ye-"Star Wars". Ngokubona kukaReagan, kwakuyisinyathelo esingavula indlela yokuqedwa kwezikhali zenuzi. Kepha emehlweni eSoviet, bekubukeka njengesinyathelo esisodwa esibheke esitelekeni sokuqala kanye nempi yenuzi “engaphumelela”.

"Ngokubonakala sengathi iphakamisa ukuthi i-US ingaqala isiteleka sokuqala ngaphandle kokwesaba ukuziphindiselela, uReagan udale iphupho elibi laseKremlin," kubhala u-Downing. “U-Andropov wayeqinisekile ukuthi lesi sinyathelo sakamuva yisondeze impi yenuzi. Futhi kwakuyi-United States eyayizoyiqala. ”