IScientific American: I-US Kufanele Ifune Ukuqeda Zonke Izimpi

Isosha lase-Afghan liqaphile ngenkathi amasosha aseMelika ephenya ngendlu eshiyiwe esifundazweni iKandahar. Isikweletu: UBehrouz Mehri Getty Images

NguJohn Horgan, Isayensi yaseMelika, May 14, 2021

Bangu Izindawo ezi-3 zisatholakala kwiklabhu yezincwadi eziku-inthanethi ezayo kaJohn.

Iningi labafundi bami lazalwa ngemuva kwempi yase-US e-Afghanistan. Manje uMongameli uJoe Biden ekugcineni uthe: Kwanele! Egcwalisa ukuzibophezela okwenziwe ngumanduleli wakhe (futhi wengeza umnqamulajuqu), uBiden uthembise lokho adonse wonke amasosha ase-US e-Afghanistan ngoSepthemba 11, 2021, eminyakeni eyi-20 impela ngemuva kokuhlaselwa okwasusa ukuhlasela.

UPundits, ngokusobala, usigxekile isinqumo sikaBiden. Bathi ukuhoxa kweMelika kuzokwenza kulimaze abesifazane base-Afghan, yize, njengoba intatheli uRobert Wright ephawula, i-Afghanistan engenwe yi-US isivele “phakathi kwezindawo ezimbi kakhulu emhlabeni ukuba ngowesifazane. ” Abanye bathi imvume yase-US yokwehlulwa izokwenza kube nzima ukukwenza ukunqoba ukusekelwa kokungenelela kwezempi okuzayo. Ngithemba kanjalo.

Biden, owayesekela ukuhlasela wase-Afghanistan, akakwazi ukubiza impi ngephutha, kepha ngiyakwazi. I- Izindleko zeProjekthi Yezempi eBrown University ilinganisela ukuthi impi, eyayivame ukuchitheka iye ePakistan, isibulale abantu abaphakathi kuka-238,000 no-241,000, abangaphezu kuka-71,000 kubo okwakungabantu abayizakhamizi. Izakhamizi eziningi seziye zanqotshwa “izifo, ukulahlekelwa ukufinyelela kokudla, amanzi, ingqalasizinda, kanye / noma eminye imiphumela engaqondile yempi.”

I-US ilahlekelwe ngamasosha angama-2,442 kanye nosonkontileka abangu-3,936, futhi isebenzise ama- $ 2.26 trillion empini. Leyo mali, kusho Izindleko Zempi, ayibandakanyi “ukunakekelwa kwempilo yonke kwabaseMelika ababengomakadebona” empini kanye “nokukhokhwa kwenzalo okuzayo kwemali ebolekwe ukuxhasa impi.” Futhi yafezani impi? Kwenze inkinga embi yambi kakhulu. Kanye ne ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq, impi yase-Afghan yaqeda ukuzwelana komhlaba wonke ne-US ngemuva kokuhlaselwa kuka-9/11 futhi kuqede ukuthembeka kwayo kokuziphatha.

Esikhundleni sokuqeda ubuphekula bamaSulumane, i-US iyibhebhethekisile ngokubulala izinkulungwane zabantu abangamaSulumane. Cabanga ngalesi sehlakalo sango-2010, engisisho encwadini yami Ukuphela kweMpi: ngokusho kwe- New York Times, Amabutho akhethekile ase-US ahlasela isigodi sase-Afghanistan adubula abulala izakhamizi ezinhlanu, kubandakanya nabesifazane ababili abakhulelwe. Abazibonele bathi amasosha aseMelika, ebona iphutha lawo, "agebha izinhlamvu emzimbeni wezisulu ngenhloso yokufihla okwenzekile."

Okuhle kungahle kuvele kulo mbukiso owesabekayo uma kusenza sikhulume ngokuthi singaqeda kanjani zonke izimpi phakathi kwezizwe hhayi nje "impi yosuku," njengenhlangano yezishoshovu World Beyond War kubeka. Inhloso yale ngxoxo bekungukudala inhlangano enkulu yokuthula, ehlukene kabili ehlanganisa amaDemokhrasi namaRiphabhulikhi, abakhululekile nabalondolozayo, abantu bokholo nabangakholwa. Sonke sizobumbana ekuboneni ukuthi ukuthula komhlaba, kude nokuba yiphupho lepayipi, kuyisidingo esisebenzayo kanye nesokuziphatha.

Njengoba izazi zifana noSteven Pinker kuphawuliwe, umhlaba usuqala ukungabi yimpi kangako. Izilinganiso zokufa okuhlobene nempi ziyahlukahluka kuye ngokuthi uyichaza kanjani impi nokuthi ubala kanjani abalimele. Kepha izilinganiso eziningi ziyavuma ukuthi ukufa kwabantu minyaka yonke okuhlobene nempi kule minyaka engamashumi amabili edlule aphansi kakhulu—Cishe ama-oda amabili wobukhulu — kunengxenye yokuqala egcwele ikhulu lama-20. Lokhu kwehla okuphawulekayo kufanele kusenze siqiniseke ukuthi singayiqeda impi phakathi kwamazwe unomphela.

Kufanele futhi siduduzeke ocwaningweni olwenziwe yizazi ezinjengo-anthropologist uDouglas P. Fry wase-University of North Carolina eGreensboro. NgoJanuwari, yena nozakwabo abayisishiyagalombili bashicilela isifundo ku- Nature kanjani “Imiphakathi ngaphakathi kwezinhlelo zokuthula ivikela impi futhi yakhe ubudlelwane obuhle bamaqembu, ”Njengoba isihloko sephepha sikubeka. Ababhali bakhomba izinto eziningi ezibizwa ngokuthi “izinhlelo zokuthula,” ezichazwe ngokuthi “amaqoqo emiphakathi engomakhelwane engalwi.” Izinhlelo zokuthula zibonisa ukuthi, ngokuphambene nalokho abantu abaningi abakukholelwayo, impi ayinakugwenywa.

Imvamisa, izinhlelo zokuthula zivela ezikhathini ezinde zokulwa. Izibonelo zifaka umfelandawonye wezizwe zoMdabu zaseMelika ezaziwa ngokuthi i-Iroquois confederacy; izizwe zanamuhla emgodini ongaphezulu weBrazil Xin River; izizwe zaseNordic zaseNyakatho Yurophu, ezingazange zilwe zodwa isikhathi esingaphezu kwamakhulu amabili eminyaka; amakandoni aseSwitzerland kanye nemibuso yase-Italy, eyahlangana emazweni abo ngekhulu le-19; kanye ne-European Union. Futhi masingakhohlwa izifundazwe zase-United States, ezingakaze zisebenzise amandla abulalayo komunye nomunye kusukela ngo-1865.

Iqembu likaFry likhomba izinto eziyisithupha ezihlukanisa ukuthula nezinhlelo ezingenakho ukuthula. Lokhu kufaka phakathi “ubunikazi obuvamile obukhulu; ukuxhumana okuhle kwezenhlalo; ukuthembana; amanani nemikhuba engalwi; izinganekwane, amasiko, nezimpawu ezingezona ezempi; nobuholi bezokuthula. ” Isici esibaluleke kakhulu ngokwezibalo, Fry, et al., Kutholakele, ukuzibophezela okwabiwe "ezinkambisweni nasemigomeni engekho empini," engenza impi ngaphakathi kohlelo “Okungenakucatshangwa. ” Omalukeke banezelwe. Njengoba iqembu likaFry lisho, uma iColorado neKansas beba nombango wamalungelo amanzi, "bahlangana enkantolo kunokuba bahlangane enkundleni yempi."

Ukuthola kwakhe kuqinisekisa isiphetho engisifinyelele ngenkathi ngibhala Ukuphela kweMpi: imbangela enkulu yempi impi. Njengesazi-mlando sezempi UJohn Keegan wakubeka, impi ibangelwa ngokuyinhloko hhayi imvelo yethu efana nempi or ukuncintisana ngezinsizakusebenza kodwa kusuka "esikhungweni sempi uqobo." Ngakho-ke ukuqeda impi, akudingeki senze noma yini emangalisayo, njengokuqeda ubungxiwankulu nokwakha uhulumeni wobusoshiyali womhlaba wonke, noma ukususa “izakhi zofuzo ezingamaqhawe”Kusuka kuyi-DNA yethu. Sidinga nje ukulahla impi njengesisombululo sezingxabano zethu.

Lokho kulula ukukusho kunokukwenza. Yize impi yehlile, impi isalokhu ikhona egxilile esikweni lesimanje. "Izenzo zamaqhawe ethu azipheli emazwini ezimbongi zethu," kusho isazi semvelaphi yabantu UMargaret Mead wabhala ngo-1940. "Amathoyizi ezingane zethu afaniswa nezikhali zesosha."

Izizwe zomhlaba zichithe cishe $ 1.981 trillion ku- "defense" ngo-2020, kukhuphuke amaphesenti angu-2.6 kusukela onyakeni owedlule, ngokusho kweStockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Ukuqhubekela phambili kwezempi, izizwe zidinga ukuthola ukuthi zinganciphisa kanjani amabutho azo kanye nezindawo zokulwa ngendlela eqinisekisa ukuphepha kokunye nokwakha ukwethembana. I-US, ebanga amaphesenti ama-39 emali esetshenzisiwe kwezempi emhlabeni wonke, kufanele iholele indlela. Izwe laseMelika lingakhombisa ukuthembeka ngokuzibophezela ukunciphisa isabelomali salo sokuvikela phakathi, yithi, ngo-2030. Uma abaphathi beBiden bethatha lesi sinyathelo namuhla, isabelomali saso besisazodlula esaseChina nesaseRussia sihlanganiswe ngumkhawulo onempilo.

Ngokuphawula ukuthi ababekade beyizitha bavame ukuba ngabahlanganyeli ngenxa yokusongelwa okwabiwe, uFry, et al., Waveza ukuthi zonke izizwe zibhekene nezingozi zobhadane nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Ukuphendula ngokuvumelana kulezi zinsongo kungasiza amazwe ukuba ahlakulele “uhlobo lobunye, ukubambisana, nemikhuba enokuthula okuyizimpawu zezinhlelo zokuthula.” Impi phakathi kwe-US ne-China, Pakistan ne-India ngisho ne-Israel ne-Palestine ingahle ingacabangi njengoba kunjalo namhlanje phakathi kwe-Colorado ne-Kansas. Lapho amazwe engasenokwesatshana, azoba nezinsizakusebenza eziningi zokuzinikela ekunakekelweni kwezempilo, ezemfundo, emandleni aluhlaza nakwezinye izidingo eziphuthumayo, okwenza izingxabano zomphakathi zingabi namathuba amancane. Njengoba nje impi izala impi, ukuthula kuzala ukuthula.

Ngithanda ukubuza abafundi bami: Singayiqeda impi? Empeleni, lowo ngumbuzo ongalungile. Umbuzo ofanele uthi: Kanjani siyayiqeda impi? Ukuqeda impi, okuyi kwenza izilo kithi, kufanele kube yisifiso sokuziphatha, njengokuqeda ubugqila noma ukucindezelwa kwabesifazane. Ake siqale ukukhuluma manje ngokuthi sikwenze kanjani.