Eminyakeni engaphezu kwamashumi amathathu edlule, ngo-Okthoba 1986, abaholi base-United States kanye neSoviet Union bahlangana engqungqutheleni eyingqophamlando enhloko-dolobha yase-Iceland, i-Reykjavik. Umhlangano waqalwa umholi wamaSoviet ngaleso sikhathi uMikhail Gorbachev, owayekholelwa ukuthi “ukuwa kokuthembana” phakathi kwalamazwe womabili kungase kumiswe ngokuqala kabusha inkhulumomphendvulwano nomongameli waseMelika uRonald Reagan ezindabeni ezibalulekile, ngaphezu kwakho konke mayelana nombuzo wezikhali zenuzi.

Emashumini amathathu eminyaka edlule, njengoba abaholi baseRussia nabase-United States belungiselela umhlangano wabo wokuqala kusukela okhethweni lwango-2016 lwase-US, ingqungquthela yango-1986 isaqhubeka. (Ithimba likaMongameli uDonald Trump liyiphikile imibiko yabezindaba yokuthi umhlangano ungase ube nase-Reykjavik.) Nakuba kungekho nesisodwa isivumelwano esasayinwa uGorbachev noReagan, ukubaluleka komlando komhlangano wabo kwakukhulu kakhulu. Naphezu kokwehluleka okubonakalayo komhlangano wabo, umholi wezwe uReagan wayebize “umbuso omubi” kanye nomongameli wesitha esingaguquki sohlelo lwamaKhomanisi wavula indlela entsha ebuhlotsheni phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu yenuzi.

I-QALA I Impumelelo

E-Reykjavik, abaholi bamazwe amabili anamandla babeka izikhundla zabo ngokuningiliziwe komunye nomunye futhi, ngokwenza kanjalo, bakwazi ukuthatha igxathu elimangalisayo phambili ezindabeni zenuzi. Ngemva konyaka, ngo-December 1987, i-United States ne-USSR basayina isivumelwano sokuqeda imicibisholo ecitshwayo ephakathi nendawo nefushane. Ngo-1991, basayina iSivumelwano Sokuncishiswa Kwezikhali sokuqala (START I).

Imizamo yokubhala lezi zivumelwano ibe mikhulu kakhulu. Ngibambe iqhaza ekulungiseleleni umbhalo walezi zivumelwano kuzo zonke izigaba zezingxoxo ezishisayo, ngendlela ebizwa ngefomethi ethi Small Five kanye neBig Five—okufushane kuma-ejensi ahlukene aseSoviet anikezwe umsebenzi wokwenza inqubomgomo. NGQALA ngathatha okungenani iminyaka emihlanu yomsebenzi onzima. Ikhasi ngalinye lalo mbhalo omude lalihambisana nenqwaba yemibhalo yaphansi eyayibonisa imibono ephikisanayo yalezi zinhlangothi zombili. Kwakufanele kutholakale ukuvumelana kuwo wonke amaphuzu. Ngokwemvelo, bekungeke kwenzeke ukufinyelela kulokhu kuvumelana ngaphandle kwentando yezombangazwe emazingeni aphezulu.

Ekugcineni, isivumelwano esasingakaze sibonwe sahlanganiswa futhi sasayinwa, into esengabhekwa njengesibonelo sobudlelwano phakathi kwezitha ezimbili. Kwakusekelwe esiphakamisweni sokuqala sika-Gorbachev sokwehliswa kwezikhali zamasu ngamaphesenti angama-50: izinhlangothi zivumile ukunciphisa izikhali zenuzi ezicishe zibe yi-12,000 ngayinye ibe ngu-6,000.

Isistimu yokuqinisekisa isivumelwano beyinoguquko. Kusawumangaza umcabango. Ibandakanye izibuyekezo ezingaba yikhulu ezimayelana nesimo sezikhali ezihlaselayo, inqwaba yokuhlolwa kwendawo, kanye nokushintshisana kwedatha ye-telemetry ngemva kwakho konke ukwethulwa kwe-intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) noma imicibisholo ecitshwayo eyethulwe ngaphansi kolwandle (i-SLBM). Lolu hlobo lokubonisa izinto obala emkhakheni oyimfihlo kwakungaziwa phakathi kwezitha zangaphambili, noma ngisho nasebudlelwaneni phakathi kwamadlelandawonye aseduze afana ne-United States, i-United Kingdom, ne-France.

Akungabazeki ukuthi ngaphandle kwe-START I, bekungeke kube khona i-New START, eyasayinwa ngumongameli wangaleso sikhathi waseMelika uBarack Obama kanye nomongameli waseRussia uDmitry Medvedev ngo-2010 ePrague. U-START Ngisebenze njengesisekelo se-START ENTSHA futhi nganikeza ulwazi oludingekayo lwesivumelwano, nakuba lowo mbhalo wawuhlose ukuhlolwa okuyishumi nesishiyagalombili kuphela endaweni (izisekelo ze-ICBM, izisekelo zangaphansi kolwandle, nezisekelo zomoya), izibuyekezo zesimo ezingamashumi amane nambili, kanye ne-telemetry emihlanu. ukushintshana kwedatha kwama-ICBM nama-SLBM ngonyaka.

Ngokuvumelana ne ukushintshana kwedatha kwakamuva ngaphansi kwe-START Entsha, iRussia njengamanje inama-ICBM amisiwe angu-508, ama-SLBM, namabhomu amakhulu anezinhloko zempi ezingu-1,796, kanti i-United States inama-ICBM angu-681, ama-SLBM, namabhomu amakhulu anezihloko zempi eziyi-1,367. Ngo-2018, lezi zinhlangothi zombili kufanele zibe neziqhumane namabhomu asetshenzisiwe angaphezu kuka-700 futhi zingabi ngaphezu kwe-1,550 warheads. Isivumelwano sizohlala sisebenza kuze kube ngu-2021.

I-START I Legacy Iyaguguleka

Kodwa-ke, lezi zinombolo azibonisi ngokunembile isimo sangempela sobudlelwane phakathi kweRussia ne-United States.

Inkinga kanye nokuntuleka kwenqubekelaphambili ekulawuleni izikhali zenuzi akunakuhlukaniswa nokuwohloka okuvamile ebudlelwaneni phakathi kweRussia neNtshonalanga okudalwe izehlakalo e-Ukraine naseSyria. Kodwa-ke, emkhakheni wezikhali zenuzi, le nkinga yaqala ngisho nangaphambi kwalokho, cishe ngokushesha ngemva kuka-2011, futhi ibingakaze ibe khona eminyakeni engamashumi amahlanu kusukela la mazwe amabili aqala ukusebenzisana kulezi zinkinga. Esikhathini esedlule, ngokushesha ngemva kokusayina isivumelwano esisha, izinhlangothi ezithintekayo ngabe ziqale ukubonisana okusha mayelana namasu okunciphisa izikhali. Nokho, kusukela ngo-2011, akuzange kube khona ukubonisana. Futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izikhulu eziphezulu zivame ukusebenzisa amagama enuzi ezitatimendeni zazo zomphakathi.

NgoJuni 2013, ngenkathi eseBerlin, u-Obama wamema iRussia ukuthi isayine isivumelwano esisha okuhloswe ngaso ukunciphisa izingalo zamasu zamaqembu ngokuqhubekayo ngengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu. Ngaphansi kwalezi ziphakamiso, izikhali ezihlaselayo zaseRussia nase-US zizokhawulelwa kuma-warheads angu-1,000 kanye nezimoto zenuzi ezisetshenziswayo ezingu-500.

Esinye isiphakamiso sikaWashington sokuqhubeka nokuncishiswa kwezikhali ngamasu senziwa ngoJanuwari 2016. sinxuse abaholi bamazwe womabili ngosopolitiki abaziwayo nososayensi abavela e-United States, eRussia naseYurophu, okuhlanganisa nowayeyilungu lephalamende laseMelika uSam Nunn, izinhloko zezokuvikela zase-US kanye ne-UK uWilliam Perry kanye noLord Des Browne, isifundiswa uNikolay Laverov, owayeyinxusa laseRussia e-United States uVladimir Lukin. , usolwazi waseSweden uHans Blix, owayeyinxusa laseSweden e-United States uRolf Ekéus, isazi sesayensi yemvelo uRoald Sagdeev, umeluleki uSusan Eisenhower, nabanye abambalwa. Lesi sikhalo sahlelwa engqungqutheleni ehlanganyelwe ye-International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe kanye ne-Nuclear Threat Initiative eWashington ekuqaleni kukaZibandlela wezi-2015 futhi sethulwa ngokushesha kubaholi abaphezulu bamazwe womabili.

Lesi siphakamiso savusa impendulo enzima evela eMoscow. Uhulumeni waseRussia ubeke izizathu ezimbalwa zokuthi kungani ubona izingxoxo ne-United States zingenakwenzeka. Bafake, okokuqala, isidingo sokwenza izivumelwano zamazwe amaningi nezinye imibuso yenuzi; okwesibili, ukuqhubeka nokusatshalaliswa kwemicibisholo yokuzivikela emhlabeni wonke yaseYurophu nase-US; okwesithathu, ukuba khona kosongo olungase lube khona lwesiteleka sokuhoxiswa kwezikhali ngezikhali ezivamile ezinembile ezimelene namabutho enuzi aseRussia; okwesine, ukusongelwa kokwenziwa kwezempi emkhathini. Ekugcineni, amazwe aseNtshonalanga, eholwa yi-United States, asolwa ngokuphoqelela inqubomgomo yezijeziso ezinobutha eRussia ngenxa yesimo sase-Ukraine.

Ngemva kwalokhu kuphazamiseka, isiphakamiso esisha sabekwa phambili yi-United States sokwelula UKUQALA Okusha iminyaka emihlanu, umnyakazo ongahunyushwa njengohlelo oluyisipele uma kungekho sivumelwano esisha okuvunyelwene ngaso. Le nketho ifakiwe embhalweni we-START Entsha. Isandiso sifaneleka kakhulu uma kubhekwa izimo.

I-agumenti eyinhloko yesandiso ukuthi ukuntuleka kwesivumelwano kususa i-START I kusukela kuhlaka lomthetho, okuvumele izinhlangothi ukuthi zilawule ngokuthembekile ukuqaliswa kwezivumelwano amashumi eminyaka. Lolu hlaka luhlanganisa ukulawula kwezikhali zamasu zezifundazwe, uhlobo nokwakheka kwalezo zikhali, izici zezindawo ezicitshwayo, inani lezimoto ezilethwayo ezisetshenzisiwe kanye nezihloko zempi kuzo, kanye nenani lezimoto ezingakasetshenziswa. Lolu hlaka lomthetho luvumela futhi izinhlangothi ukuthi zibeke i-ajenda yesikhashana.

Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, kube nokuhlolwa okufika kweshumi nesishiyagalombili okuhlangene okwenzekayo ngonyaka kusukela ngo-2011 kwezisekelo zeqembu ngalinye, zasolwandle, nezomoya ze-nuclear triad kanye nezaziso ezingamashumi amane nambili mayelana nemvelo yamasu abo enuzi. Ukuntuleka kolwazi mayelana namabutho ezempi akolunye uhlangothi ngokuvamile kuphumela ekucabangeni ngokweqile kokubili kwamandla obuningi kanye nekhwalithi yombangi womuntu, kanye nesinqumo sokuthuthukisa amakhono omuntu siqu ukuze akhe ikhono elifanele lokuphendula. Le ndlela iholela ngqo emjahweni wezikhali ongalawuleki. Kuyingozi ikakhulukazi uma kuhilela izikhali zenuzi zamasu, njengoba lokho kuholela ekulimazeni ukuzinza kwamasu njengoba kwakuqondwa ekuqaleni. Kungakho kufaneleka ukwelula UKUQALA Okusha ngeminyaka emihlanu eyengeziwe ukuya ku-2026.

Isiphetho

Nokho, kungaba ngcono nakakhulu ukusayina isivumelwano esisha. Lokho kuzovumela izinhlangothi ukuthi zigcine ibhalansi yesu ezinzile kuyilapho zisebenzisa imali encane kakhulu kunalokho obekuzodingeka ukuze kugcinwe amazinga ezikhali achazwe I-START Entsha. Leli lungiselelo lingaba yinzuzo enkulu eRussia ngoba isivumelwano esilandelayo esisayinwe, njenge-START I kanye nesivumelwano samanje, ngokuyisisekelo sizobandakanya ukuncishiswa kwamabutho enuzi ase-US futhi sivumele iRussia ukuthi yehlise izindleko zokugcina namazinga esivumelwano samanje. ukuze kuthuthukiswe nokwenza izinhlobo ezengeziwe zemicibisholo ibe yisimanjemanje.

Kukubaholi baseRussia naseMelika ukuthatha lezi zinyathelo ezinokwenzeka, ezidingekayo, neziphusile. Ingqungquthela yase-Reykjavik yaseminyakeni engamashumi amathathu edlule ikhombisa okungenziwa uma abaholi ababili, izifunda zabo okuthiwa ziyizitha ezingabekezeleleki, bezibophezela futhi bathathe isinyathelo sokuthuthukisa ukusimama nokuphepha kwamasu omhlaba.

Izinqumo zalolu hlobo zingathathwa uhlobo lwabaholi abakhulu ngempela, ngokudabukisayo, abashodayo emhlabeni wamanje. Kodwa, uma ngichaza udokotela wengqondo wase-Austria uWilhelm Stekel, umholi omi emahlombe omdondoshiya angabona okungaphezu komdondoshiya uqobo. Akudingekile, kodwa bangakwazi. Inhloso yethu kumele kube wukuqinisekisa ukuthi abaholi besimanje abahlezi emahlombe emidondoshiya bayaqikelela ukuthi babheke kude.