By Emanuel Pastreich, Ngaphandle | Op-Ed
(Isithombe: I-guilherme jofili / Flickr)
Ibambe umugqa obhekene noGwadule lwaseKubuchi
Izitshudeni zasekolishi zase-Korean eziyikhulu ziyakhubeka esitimeleni e-Baotou, Inner Mongolia, zicwayiza ekukhanyeni kwelanga. Uhambo lwesitimela lwamahora angu-14 ukusuka e-Beijing, e-Baotou akuyona neze indawo edumile entsheni yaseSeoul, kodwa-ke lolu akulona uhambo lokuthenga.
Ikhehla elifushane eligqoke ijakhethi eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka lihola abafundi esixukwini esiteshini, liphuthuma liyala iqembu. Ngokungafani nabafundi, akabonakali nhlobo ekhathele; ukumamatheka kwakhe akuphazanyiswe uhambo. Igama lakhe ngu-Kwon Byung-Hyun, isikhulu sezobuchwephesha esasebenza njengenxusa leRiphabhulikhi yaseKorea eChina kusukela ngo-1998 kuya ku-2001. Nakuba iphothifoliyo yakhe yake yahlanganisa yonke into kusukela kwezohwebo nezokuvakasha kuya ezindabeni zezempi naseNyakatho Korea, iNxusa uKwon uthole isizathu esisha. lokho kufuna ukunaka kwakhe ngokugcwele. Njengoba eneminyaka engu-74 ubudala, akanaso isikhathi sokubona ozakwabo abamatasa bedlala igalofu noma abazitika ngokuzijabulisa. Inxusa u-Kwon usehhovisi lakhe elincane eSeoul ocingweni futhi ubhala izincwadi ukuze akhe impendulo yamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nokusabalala kwezingwadule eChina - noma ulapha, utshala izihlahla.
U-Kwon ukhuluma ngendlela ekhululekile futhi efinyeleleka kalula, kodwa akalula nje. Nakuba kumthatha izinsuku ezimbili ukusuka ekhaya lakhe emagqumeni angenhla kwaseSeoul kuya kulayini ongaphambili ogwadule lwaseKubuchi njengoba enza indlela engenakunyakaziswa eningizimu-mpumalanga, uthatha uhambo njalo, nangomdlandla.
I-Kubuchi Desert iye yanda kangangokuthi ingamakhilomitha angu-450 nje entshonalanga ye-Beijing futhi, njengogwadule oluseduze kakhulu ne-Korea, iwumthombo oyinhloko wothuli oluphuzi oluthela eKorea, olupheshulwa umoya onamandla. UKwon wasungula i-NGO Future Forest ngo-2001 ukuze alwe nokuphenduka ugwadule ngokubambisana neChina. Uhlanganisa abantu abasha baseKorea namaShayina ukuze batshale izihlahla ekuphenduleni le nhlekelele yemvelo kumbimbi olusha lwentsha, uhulumeni kanye nezimboni.
Ukuqala Kwemishini ka-Kwon
UKwon ulandisa indlela umsebenzi wakhe wokumisa izingwadule waqala ngayo:
“Umzamo wami wokumisa ukusabalala kwezingwadule eChina uqale ngesipiliyoni sami esihluke kakhulu. Lapho ngifika eBeijing ngo-1998 ngizokhonza njengenxusa eChina, ngahlangatshezwa yiziphepho zothuli oluphuzi. Iziphepho ezaziletha isihlabathi nothuli zazinamandla kakhulu, futhi kwakungeyona into encane ukushaqeka ukubona isibhakabhaka saseBeijing simnyama ngaphambi kwesikhathi. Ngathola ucingo oluvela endodakazini yami ngakusasa, futhi yangitshela ukuthi isibhakabhaka saseSeoul sasimbozwe yiso leso siphepho sesihlabathi esasivunguza sivela eChina. Ngabona ukuthi wayekhuluma ngesiphepho engangisanda kusibona. Lolo cingo lwangivusa enkingeni. Ngibone okokuqala ukuthi sonke sibhekene nenkinga efanayo eyeqa imingcele kazwelonke. Ngabona kahle ukuthi inkinga yothuli oluphuzi engalubona eBeijing inkinga yami, nenkinga yomndeni wami. Bekungeyona nje inkinga ukuthi amaShayina ayixazulule.”
U-Kwon namalungu e-Future Forest bagibela ibhasi uhambo lwehora lonke bese benqamula isigodi esincane lapho abalimi, izinkomo nezimbuzi bebuka lezi zivakashi eziyinqaba. Ngemva kohambo lwamakhilomitha angu-3 phezu kwepulazi le-bucolic, kodwa-ke, indawo yesehlakalo iphenduka i-specter esesabekayo: isihlabathi esingapheli esinwebeka emkhathizwe ngaphandle komkhondo wokuphila.
Intsha yaseKorea ijoyinwa ontanga yaseShayina futhi ngokushesha basebenza kanzima bemba izinsalela zenhlabathi engaphezulu ukuze batshale izithombo efike nazo. Bahlanganyela nenani elandayo lentsha eKorea, eShayina, eJapane nakwezinye izindawo eziphonsa inselele yeminyaka eyinkulungwane: ukunciphisa ukusabalala kwezingwadule.
Izingwadule ezifana neKubuchi ziwumkhiqizo wokuncipha kwemvula yaminyaka yonke, ukusetshenziswa kabi komhlaba kanye nomzamo onzima wabalimi abampofu ezindaweni ezisathuthuka njenge-Inner Mongolia yokuthola imali encane ngokugawula izihlahla nezihlahla, ezibamba inhlabathi futhi ziphule umoya. , ngezinkuni.
Lapho ebuzwa ngenselelo yokusabela kulezi zingwadule, iNxusa uKwon uphendule kafushane, “Lezi zingwadule, kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngokwako, kuwusongo olukhulu kubo bonke abantu, kodwa asikaqali ngisho nokushintsha izinto eziza kuqala kwisabelomali sethu uma kufika. kwezokuphepha.”
U-Kwon ubonisa ukuthi kungenzeka kube noshintsho olubalulekile emicabangweni yethu eyisisekelo mayelana nokuphepha. Manje sivakashelwa abanduleli bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi imililo yequbula esabekayo eyakhukhula i-United States ehlobo lika-2012 noma ingozi esizweni esicwilayo saseTuvalu, futhi siyazi ukuthi kudingeka isinyathelo esinqala. Kodwa sisebenzisa imali engaphezu kwesigidi sezigidi zamaRandi ngonyaka ngezikhali ezijikijelwa, amathangi, izibhamu, ama-drones nama-supercomputers - izikhali ezisebenza ngempumelelo ekunqandeni ukusabalala kwezingwadule njengoba indwayimane ibhekene nethangi. Kungenzeka yini ukuthi akufanele sithathe igxathu kwezobuchwepheshe, kodwa kunalokho ukweqa ngokomqondo egameni lezokuphepha: ukwenza impendulo ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu kube umgomo oyinhloko walawo masosha axhaswa ngezimali.
Ukuminza ogwadule noma ukuminzelwa ulwandle?
Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuye kwazala amawele amabili akhohlisayo ashwabadela ngobugovu ubunikazi bomhlaba omuhle: izingwadule ezisakazayo nezilwandle ezikhulayo. Njengoba ugwadule lwaseKubuchi lushona ngasempumalanga lubheke eBeijing, luhlangana nezinye izingwadule ezikhulayo ezindaweni ezomile e-Asia, e-Afrika nasemhlabeni jikelele. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izilwandle zomhlaba ziyakhuphuka, zikhula zibe ne-asidi futhi zigubuzele ugu lweziqhingi namazwekazi. Phakathi kwalezi zinsongo ezimbili, ayikho imingcele eningi kubantu - futhi ngeke sibe khona isikhathi sokuphumula samaphupho akude mayelana nezimpi zamazwekazi amabili.
Ukufudumala komhlaba, ukusetshenziswa kabi kwamanzi nenhlabathi, nezimiso zezolimo ezingezinhle ezibheka inhlabathi njengento edliwayo kunokuba ibe isimiso esisekela ukuphila, kuye kwaba nengxenye ekwehleni okuyinhlekelele komhlaba wokulima.
IZizwe Ezihlangene zasungula iNgqungquthela Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yokulwa Nokuguquka Kwezingwadule (i-UNCCD) ngo-1994 ukuze ihlanganise ababambiqhaza abavela emhlabeni wonke ukuze baphendule ekubhebhethekeni kwezingwadule. Okungenani abantu abayizigidi eziyinkulungwane babhekene nosongo oluqondile lokusakazeka kwezingwadule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba ukulima nokuncipha kwemvula kuphazamisa imvelo ewohlokayo ezindaweni ezomile, okuyikhaya labantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili, umthelela womhlaba wonke ekukhiqizweni kokudla kanye nokuhlupheka kwabantu abafudukayo uzoba mkhulu kakhulu.
Ukuvela kwezingwadule kubi kakhulu kuwo wonke amazwekazi kangangokuthi iZizwe Ezihlangene zaqoka leli shumi leminyaka ngokuthi “Ishumi Leminyaka Lezingwadule Nokulwa Nokugwaduleka” futhi yathi ukusakazeka kwezingwadule “kuyinselele enkulu kunazo zonke engokwemvelo yezikhathi zethu.”
Unobhala omkhulu we-UNCCD ngaleso sikhathi, uLuc Gnacadja, esho ngokungananazi ukuthi “Amasentimitha angama-20 aphezulu enhlabathi yiwo kuphela asemi phakathi kwethu nokushabalala.
UDavid Montgomery uye wachaza ubukhulu balolu songo encwadini yakhe ethi Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations. I-Montgomery igcizelela ukuthi inhlabathi, evame ukuchithwa ngokuthi "ukungcola," iwumthombo wamasu, obaluleke kakhulu kunamafutha noma amanzi. I-Montgomery iphawula ukuthi amaphesenti angu-38 ezindawo ezitshaliwe emhlabeni wonke aye wonakala kakhulu kusukela ngo-1945 nokuthi izinga lokuguguleka kwezitshalo manje selishesha ngokuphindwe izikhathi eziyikhulu kunokwakheka kwakho. Lokho kuthambekela kuhlangene nokwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa kanye nokuncipha kwemvula okwenza izifunda zasentshonalanga “zobhasikidi wesinkwa” waseMelika zibe umkhawulo kwezolimo futhi zibe ngaphansi kokuguguleka komhlabathi okubangelwa izimvula ezinkulu. Ngamafuphi, ngisho nezingxenye zenhliziyo yesinkwa saseMelika, kanye nezwe, zisendleleni eya ekubeni izingwadule.
I-Montgomery isikisela ukuthi izindawo ezinjenge-Inner Mongolia ezihlushwa ugwadule namuhla “zisebenza njengomfula emayini yamalahle yomhlaba wonke uma kubhekwa inhlabathi.” Lezo zingwadule ezandayo kufanele zibe yisixwayiso mayelana nezinto ezizosehlela. “Yebo, ekhaya lami, Seattle, ungakwazi ukunciphisa imvula ngamasentimitha ambalwa ngonyaka futhi ukhuphule izinga lokushisa ngedigri elilodwa futhi usenamahlathi ahlala eluhlaza. Kodwa uma uthatha indawo enotshani eyomile futhi unciphisa imvula ngamasentimitha ambalwa ngonyaka - kakade ibingatholi mvula engaka. Ukwehla kwezimila, ukuguguleka komoya kanye nomphumela wokuwohloka kwenhlabathi yilokho esikusho ngokuguga. Kepha ngithanda ukugcizelela ukuthi sibona ukuwohloka kwenhlabathi emhlabeni jikelele, kodwa sibona kuphela ukubonakaliswa ngokucacile kulezi zindawo ezisengozini. ”
Khonamanjalo, ukuncibilika kwezingqimba zeqhwa ezincibilika ezindaweni ezishisayo kubangela ukunyuka kwamazinga olwandle okuzosongela izakhamuzi zasogwini njengoba ugu lushabalala kanye nezimo zesimo sezulu esibi njengeSiphepho u-Sandy seziqala ukwenzeka. I-National Academy of Sciences yakhipha umbiko onesihloko esithi “Ukunyuka Kwezinga Lolwandle Ogwini lwaseCalifornia, Oregon, kanye neWashington: Okwedlule, Okwamanje, Nekusasa” ngoJuni 2012, kubikezela ukuthi amazinga olwandle emhlabeni wonke azokhuphuka ngamasentimitha ayi-8 kuye kwangama-23 ngonyaka wezi-2030, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lika-2000, amasentimitha ayi-18 kuye kwangama-48 ngo-2050, kanye namasentimitha angama-50 kuye kwayi-140 ngo-2100. Isilinganiso sombiko sama-2100 siphezulu kakhulu kunePhaneli Yenhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yohulumeni Ngokushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu okungamasentimitha ayi-18 kuye kwangama-59, ochwepheshe abaningi. lindela isimo esibi kakhulu. Leyo nhlekelele izoba phakathi nesikhathi sokuphila kwezingane zethu nabazukulu.
U-Janet Redman, umqondisi we-Sustainable Energy and Economy Network e-Institute for Policy Studies e-Washington, DC, ubukele inqubomgomo yesimo sezulu kusukela ezingeni le-40,000-foot lemihlangano yesimo sezulu. Udonsela ukunaka endleleni iSiphepho uSandy esilethe ngayo imiphumela ephelele yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu: “ISiphepho uSandy sasiza ukwenza usongo lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu lube ngokoqobo ngempela. Isimo sezulu esibi kangaka siyinto abantu abavamile abangayizwa. Umbusi waseNew York, u-Andrew Cuomo, uthi lesi siphepho siwumphumela ‘wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu,’ futhi ungumuntu ovamile.”
Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho umbusi waseNew Jersey uChris Christie ecela imali yeFederal yokwakha kabusha ugu lolwandle, iMeya yaseNew York City uMichael Bloomberg yaqhubekela phambili. IMeya uBloomberg ithe sidinga ukusebenzisa izimali zenhlangano ukuze siqale ukwakha kabusha iNew York City uqobo. "Washo ngokusobala ukuthi amazinga olwandle ayakhuphuka, futhi sidinga ukudala idolobha elizinzile njengamanje," kukhumbula uRedman. “IBloomberg imemezele ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu sekukhona. Waze waze wasikisela ukuthi kudingeka sibuyisele amaxhaphozi azungeze iDolobha laseNew York ukuze amunce lezi ziphepho. Ngamanye amazwi, sidinga isu lokuzivumelanisa nezimo. Ngakho-ke inhlanganisela yomcimbi wesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu nempikiswano enamandla evela kusopolitiki ojwayelekile onokubonakala okuphezulu komphakathi/kwabezindaba kusiza ekuguquleni inkhulumomphendvulwano. I-Bloomberg akuyona i-Al Gore; akayena ummeleli we-Friends of the Earth.”
Ukukhathazeka okuzungezile kungase kufinyele kumbono omusha ngencazelo yokuphepha. U-Robert Bishop, owayeyi-CEO ye-Silicon Graphics Inc., wasungula i-International Center for Earth Simulation njengendlela yokwenza ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu namuhla kuqonde kubenzi bezinqubomgomo nezimboni. UMbhishobhi uphawula ukuthi iSiphepho uSandy sizobiza into ecishe ibe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-60, kanti izindleko eziphelele zikaKatrina noWilma, kanye nezindleko zokugcina zokuhlanza uwoyela we-Deep Water Horizon, zizobalelwa ku-$100 billion ngayinye.
"Sikhuluma ngezinhlekelele zemvelo ezinesisindo esingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyikhulu i-pop." Uyaphawula, "Lezo zinhlobo zezinhlekelele zizoqala ukushintsha imibono ePentagon - ngoba zibeka isizwe sonke engcupheni. Ukwengeza, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle eduze ne-United States' Eastern Seaboard kusongela ukudala izindleko ezinkulu zesikhathi esizayo. Ngokushesha kuzodingeka imali enkulu yokuvikela amadolobha asogwini. Ngokwesibonelo, eNorfolk, eVirginia, iyikhaya lokuphela kwesizinda esithwala izindiza zenuzi e-East Coast, futhi lelo dolobha selibhekene nenkinga enkulu yezikhukhula.”
UMbhishobhi uyaqhubeka echaza ukuthi iDolobha laseNew York, iBoston kanye neLos Angeles, “izikhungo eziyinhloko zempucuko” zase-United States, zonke zisezindaweni ezisengozini kakhulu yezwe futhi kuncane okwenziwayo ukubavikela osongweni, hhayi okwamabutho akwamanye amazwe noma imicibisholo ecitshwayo, kodwa okolwandle olukhuphukayo.
Kungani ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungabhekwa “njengosongo”
Ngeke kube yiqiniso uma sithi asenzi lutho ukubhekana nenkinga yemvelo, kodwa uma siwuhlobo olubhekene nokushabalala, akukho okutheni esikwenzayo.
Mhlawumbe ingxenye yenkinga uhlaka lwesikhathi. Amasosha avame ukucabanga ngokuphepha ngokuhamba okusheshayo: Ungasivikela kanjani isikhumulo sezindiza emahoreni ambalwa, noma uqhumise ithagethi esanda kutholwa ngaphakathi kwetiyetha yokusebenza phakathi nemizuzu embalwa? Lokho kuthambekela kubhebhethekiswa isivinini esandayo somjikelezo wokuqoqwa kobuhlakani nokuhlaziywa sekukonke. Kudingeka sikwazi ukuphendula ekuhlaselweni kwenethiwekhi okusekelwe kuwebhu noma ukuqaliswa kwemicibisholo ngokushesha. Nakuba ukushesha kwempendulo kune-aura ethile yokusebenza ngempumelelo, isidingo sengqondo sempendulo esheshayo asihlangene kangako nokuvikeleka kwangempela.
Kuthiwani uma usongo lwezokuphepha oluyinhloko belungalinganiswa ngamakhulu eminyaka? Akubonakali lukhona uhlelo olukhona emphakathini wezempi nokuphepha lokubhekana nezinkinga ngesilinganiso sesikhathi esinjalo. UDavid Montgomery uphakamisa ukuthi le nkinga ingenye yezinzima kakhulu isintu esibhekene nazo namuhla. Isibonelo, ukulahlekelwa kwenhlabathi engaphezulu emhlabeni jikelele kuyinto elandelanayo yephesenti elingu-1 ngonyaka, okwenza kube ushintsho olungabonakali kuzikrini ze-radar yenqubomgomo e-Washington DC. Kodwa lokho kuthambekela kuzoba yinhlekelele kuso sonke isintu esikhathini esingaphansi kwekhulu leminyaka, njengoba kuthatha amakhulu eminyaka ukwakha inhlabathi engaphezulu. Ukulahlekelwa umhlaba olimekayo, kuhlangene nokwanda okusheshayo kwenani labantu emhlabeni wonke, ngokungangabazeki kungenye yezinsongo ezinkulu zokuphepha esibhekene nazo. Futhi nokho abambalwa emphakathini wezokuphepha abagxile kakhulu kulolu daba.
UJanet Redman uphakamisa ukuthi kufanele sithole uhlobo oluthile lwencazelo yesikhathi eside yokuvikeleka engamukelwa emibuthanweni yezokuvikela: “Ekugcineni, sidinga ukuqala ukucabanga ngokuvikeleka ngomqondo ophakathi kwezizukulwane, njengalokho okungase kubizwe ngokuthi 'phakathi- ukuphepha kwesizukulwane.' Okusho ukuthi, okwenzayo namuhla kuzoba nomthelela ekusaseni, kuzoba nomthelela ezinganeni zakho, abazukulu bakho nangaphezulu kwethu. ” Ngaphezu kwalokho, uRedman uphakamisa, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyethusa kakhulu abantu abaningi. “Uma inkinga iyimbi ngempela, ingahlehlisa ngokuphelele konke esikuqaphelile; bhubhisa umhlaba njengoba siwazi. Kuzofanele siguqule indlela esiphila ngayo izimpilo zethu. Ukusuka kwezokuthutha ukuya ekudleni kuya emisebenzini, umndeni; konke kuzomele kushintshe."
UJared Diamond usikisela encwadini yakhe ethi Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive ukuthi imiphakathi ngezikhathi ezithile iye yabhekana nokukhetha okuqinile phakathi kwezinzuzo zesikhashana kubabusi bamanje nemikhuba yabo entofontofo kanye nezithakazelo zesikhathi eside zezizukulwane ezizayo, nokuthi abavamile ukuthola. ubonise ukuqonda “kobulungisa bamazwe ngamazwe.” UDayimane uqhubeka nokuphikisa ngokuthi uma izinguquko ezifunwayo zingqubuzana nokuqagela okuyisisekelo kwamasiko nemibono, maningi amathuba okuba umphakathi ubuyele ekuphikani okukhulu. Uma umthombo wosongo kuwukucabanga kwethu okuyimpumputhe kokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezinto ezibonakalayo kuhlanganisa inkululeko nokuzibona, isibonelo, singase sibe sendleleni efanayo nempucuko eshabalala yase-Easter Island.
Mhlawumbe ukukhathazeka kwamanje ngobuphekula kanye nokwanda kwezempi okungapheli kuwuhlobo lokuphika ngokwengqondo lapho siphazamisa khona izingqondo zethu ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu ngokuphishekela inkinga encane kakhulu. Usongo lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu lukhulu kakhulu futhi lusongela kangangokuthi ludinga ukuthi sicabange kabusha ukuthi singobani nokuthi senzani, ukuze sizibuze ukuthi ingabe yonke i-cafe latte noma iholide yaseHawaii iyingxenye yenkinga noma cha. Kulula kakhulu ukugxila esitheni esikhona ezintabeni zase-Afghanistan.
UJohn Feffer, umqondisi weNqubomgomo Yezangaphandle ku-Focus futhi umgxeki kabuhlungu walokho akubiza ngokuthi “inkinga yokukhuluphala kwe-Pentagon,” ufingqa ngokucace bha le Psychology eyisisekelo:
“Nakhu sivaleleke phakathi kwesihlabathi esisakazekayo namanzi akhuphukayo, futhi ngandlela-thile asikwazi ukuvala izingqondo zethu enkingeni, ingasaphathwa eyokuthola isisombululo.
“Kufana nokuthi simi phakathi neziganga zase-Afrika. Ngakolunye uhlangothi indlovu egijimayo iyasihlasela. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ibhubesi selizobhodla. Futhi senzani? Sigxile ezinsongweni ezincane, njenge-al-Qaeda. Sigxile entuthwaneni engene ezinzwaneni yethu yacwilisa izithonjana zayo esikhumbeni sethu. Kubuhlungu, impela, kodwa akuyona inkinga enkulu. Simatasatasa sibheke phansi uzwane kangangoba asisayiboni indlovu nebhubesi.”
Okunye wukungabi bikho kwemicabango kwabenzi benqubomgomo nalabo abakha abezindaba abasazisayo. Abantu abaningi abakwazi nje ukucabanga ngenhlekelele yemvelo embi kakhulu. Bathambekele ekucabangeni ukuthi ikusasa lizofana nelanamuhla, ukuthi ukuqhubekela phambili kuyohlale kunomugqa, nokuthi uvivinyo olukhulu lwanoma yikuphi ukubikezela kwekusasa singokuhlangenwe nakho kwethu siqu. Ngenxa yalezi zizathu, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okuyinhlekelele akunakucatshangwa - ngokwezwi nezwi.
Uma kungathi sína kangako, ingabe sidinga ukuphendukela okhethweni lwezempi?
Sekuphenduke umugqa ojwayelekile kosopolitiki ukudumisa amasosha ase-US njengezikhulu emhlabeni. Kodwa uma amasosha engayilungele ngokuphelele inselele yokusabalalisa izingwadule nomhlabathi onyamalalayo, isiphetho sethu singafana nesombusi okhohliwe ovela enkondlweni kaPercy Bysshe Shelley ethi “Ozymandias,” osithombe sakhe esikhulu nesicekeleke phansi esinombhalo othi:
Bhekani izenzo zami nina Maqhawe, niphele amandla!
Akukho lutho ngaphandle kokusala. Zungezisa ukubola
Kuleyo ngozi enkulukazi, engenamngcele futhi engenalutho
Izihlabathi zodwa nezisezingeni zinwebeka kude.
Ukulwa nezingwadule ezisabalalisayo kanye nezilwandle ezikhulayo kuzothatha izinsiza ezinkulu kanye nakho konke ukuhlakanipha kwethu esiyiqoqo. Impendulo ayihlanganisi nje kuphela ukuhlela kabusha wonke uhulumeni nomnotho wethu, kodwa futhi nokuvuselela impucuko yethu. Nokho umbuzo usasele: Ingabe impendulo iwukushintshwa nje kwezinto ezibalulekile nezikhuthazayo, noma ingabe lolu songo lufana nempi yangempela, okungukuthi, “impi ephelele,” ehluke kuphela esimweni sempendulo kanye “nesitha” esicatshangelwayo? Ingabe sibheka inkinga yokuphila nokufa edinga ukugqugquzelwa kwabantu abaningi, umnotho olawulwayo nolinganiselwe kanye nokuhlelwa kwamasu okukhulu esikhathini esifushane nesikhathi eside? Ingabe le nkinga idinga, ngamafuphi, umnotho wezempi kanye nokucatshangelwa kabusha okuphelele kohlelo lwezempi?
Kunezingozi ezinkulu ezihilelekile ekuceleni impendulo yezempi, ikakhulukazi esikhathini lapho umqondo wodlame ugcwele emphakathini wethu. Impela ukuvulela abaphangi baseBeltway umnyango wokusungula ibhizinisi ethempelini lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungaba yinhlekelele. Kuthiwani uma i-Pentagon ibingase ibambe iqhaza ekuguqukeni kwesimo sezulu ukuze ithethelele ukusetshenziswa kwemali okwengeziwe kwezempi kumaphrojekthi ngokusebenza okuncane noma okungekho nhlobo ekusongeleni kwangempela? Siyazi ukuthi emikhakheni eminingi yezokuphepha yendabuko lokhu kuthambekela kakade kuyinkinga enkulu.
Ngokuqinisekile kunengozi yokuthi isiko lezempi kanye nokucabangela kuzosetshenziswa ngokungalungile endabeni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, usongo ekugcineni olubhekwana kangcono nokuguqulwa kwamasiko. Njengoba i-United States inezinkinga ezinkulu zokuvuselela amandla ayo okusebenzisa inketho yezempi njengesixazululo sayo yonke into, sidinga, uma kukhona, ukuqinisa ezempi, hhayi ukuqhubekisela phambili.
Kodwa mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, isimo sihlukile. Ukusungula kabusha amasosha ngenjongo yokulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyadingeka, uma kuyingozi, isinyathelo, futhi leyo nqubo ingase iguqule isiko, umgomo, kanye nezinto ezibalulekile kulo lonke uhlelo lwezokuphepha. Akukho okunye esingakwenza ngaphandle kokuthi sizibandakanye engxoxweni namasosha.
Ngaphandle uma kucatshangelwa ukukhathazeka kweqiniso kwezokuphepha, ukusuka egwadule kanye nokukhuphuka kwezilwandle kuya ekuswelekeni kokudla kanye nenani labantu eliguga, kungase kungenzeki ukuthola ukwakheka okuhlangene kwezokuphepha okuzovumela ukubambisana okujulile phakathi kwamasosha omhlaba. Phela, noma ngabe amasosha ase-US angahlehlisa noma asule esikhundleni sokuba ngamaphoyisa omhlaba, isimo sezokuphepha sisonke singaba yingozi kakhulu. Ngaphandle kwalapho singathola indawo yokubambisana phakathi kwebutho lezempi elingadingi isitha esingase sibe khona, mancane amathuba okuba sehlise izingozi ezimbi kakhulu esibhekene nazo manje.
UJames Baldwin wabhala: “Akuyona yonke into obhekene nayo engashintshwa, kodwa akukho okungashintshwa uma kungabhekwana nayo.” Ukuze sifise sengathi amasosha avele abe into ehlukile ngokuzenzela akufezi lutho. Kufanele sihlele indlela eya enguqukweni bese sicindezela futhi sigqugquzele amasosha ukuthi athathe indima entsha. Ngakho-ke impikiswano ephikisana nokubandakanyeka kwezempi iyasebenza, kodwa iqiniso liwukuthi amasosha ngeke avume ukuncishiswa okujulile kwesabelomali sezempi ukusekela ukusetshenziswa kwemali ukubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngezinye izinhlaka. Kunalokho, ingozi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kufanele ibonakale phakathi kwezempi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwethulwa kokusimama njengesimiso esibalulekile sombutho wezempi kungafinyelela kude ekulungiseni impi kanye nengqondo yodlame ekhungethe umphakathi waseMelika ngokudlulisela amandla ezempi ekwelapheni kwemvelo.
Kuliqiniso lebutho ukuthi lihlezi lilungiselela ukulwa impi yokugcina. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amakhosi ase-Afrika ayelwa namakoloni aseYurophu ngezintelezi nemikhonto, ojenene beMpi Yombango babeshisekela amahhashi ahlambalaza imizila yezitimela engcolile, noma ojenene beMpi Yezwe I abathumela izinhlaka ezilwa empini ziqhumisa izibhamu njengokungathi zilwa namaFranco-Prussia. Impi, amasosha athambekele ekucabangeni ukuthi ukungqubuzana okulandelayo kuzoba inguqulo ekhulisiwe yeyokugcina.
Uma amasosha, esikhundleni sokuthumela izinsongo zamasosha e-Iran noma eSyria, ethatha ukusebenzelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu njengomsebenzi wawo oyinhloko, azoletha iqembu elisha lezinsizwa nezintombi ezinekhono, futhi yona kanye indima yamasosha izoshintsha. Njengoba i-United States iqala ukwabela kabusha ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezempi, kuzoba njalo nezinye izizwe zomhlaba. Umphumela ungaba uhlelo oluncane kakhulu lwezempi kanye nokuba nokwenzeka kwesidingo esisha sokubambisana komhlaba wonke.
Kepha lo mqondo awunamsebenzi uma singakwazi ukuthola indlela yokuqondisa amasosha ase-US endleleni efanele. Njengoba kunjalo, sisebenzisa ingcebo eyigugu ezinhlelweni zezikhali ezingahlangabezani nezidingo zempi, ingasaphathwa eyokunikeza noma yiziphi izinkinga zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. UJohn Feffer uphakamisa ukuthi inertia ye-bureaucratic kanye nesabelomali esincintisanayo yisona sizathu esiyinhloko esenza sibonakale singenakho ukukhetha ngaphandle kokuphishekela izikhali ezingenamsebenzi ocacile: abafuni ukubona isabelomali sabo sesiphelele sehla.” UFeffer usikisela ukuthi izimpikiswano ezithile ziyaphindwa kuze kube yilapho zibonakala njengeVangeli: “Kufanele silondoloze unxantathu wethu wenuzi; kufanele sibe nenani elincane lama-jet fighters; kumele sibe neNavy efanelekile amandla omhlaba. "
Okubalulekile kokuqhubeka nokwakha okunye okufanayo nakho kunengxenye yesifunda nepolitiki. Imisebenzi ehambisana nalezi zikhali isabalale ezweni lonke. “Asikho isifunda sikakhongolose esingaxhumene ngandlela thize nokwakhiwa kwezinhlelo zezikhali,” kusho uFeffer. “Futhi ukwenziwa kwalezo zikhali kusho imisebenzi, ngezinye izikhathi okuwukuphela kwemisebenzi yokukhiqiza eqhubekayo. Osopolitiki abakwazi ukuziba lawo mazwi. Ummeleli uBarney Frank waseMassachusetts waba nesibindi esikhulu ekuceleni izinguquko kwezempi, kodwa lapho injini yokusekela indiza yezempi ye-F-35 eyakhiwa esifundeni sakhe isizovotelwa, kwadingeka ayivotele - nakuba i-Air Force. wamemezela ukuthi kwakungadingeki.”
Kukhona abanye e-Washington DC asebeqale ukuthuthukisa incazelo ebanzi yentshisekelo nokuphepha kwezwe. Enye yezinto ezithembisa kakhulu yi-Smart Strategy Initiative e-New America Foundation. Ngaphansi kokuqondisa kuka-Patrick Doherty, “Isu Eliphakeme” liyakhiwa elidonsela ukunaka ezindabeni ezine ezibalulekile ezisakazwa emphakathini nasemhlabeni. Izingqinamba eziphathwayo “Kusu Olukhulu” “ziwukufakwa kwezomnotho,” ukungena kwabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu esigabeni esimaphakathi somhlaba eminyakeni engu-3 ezayo kanye nemithelela yalolo shintsho emnothweni nasemvelweni; “ukuncipha kwe-ecosystem,” umthelela wezenzo zabantu endaweni ezungezile nemithelela yako kithi; “iqukethe ukucindezeleka,” isimo somnotho samanje esinesidingo esiphansi kanye nezinyathelo eziqinile zokuqiniswa kwezimali; kanye “nokushoda kokuqina,” ubuthaka bengqalasizinda yethu kanye nohlelo lwezomnotho lulonke. I-Smart Strategy Initiative ayiphathelene nokwenza amasosha abe luhlaza kakhulu, kodwa imayelana nokusetha kabusha zonke izinto ezibalulekile esizweni sisonke, okuhlanganisa nezempi. U-Doherty ucabanga ukuthi amasosha kufanele abambelele endimeni yawo yasekuqaleni futhi angangeni emikhakheni engaphezu kobuchwepheshe bawo.
Lapho ebuzwa ngempendulo ejwayelekile yePentagon embuzweni wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, uveze amakamu amane ahlukene. Okokuqala, kukhona labo abahlala begxile ekukhathazekeni okungokwesiko kwezokuphepha futhi bacabangele ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu ekubaleni kwabo. Bese kuba khona labo ababona ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu njengolunye usongo okufanele lucatshangelwe ezinhlelweni zezokuphepha zendabuko kodwa njengento engaphandle kakhulu kunodaba oluyinhloko. Bazwakalisa ukukhathazeka ngezisekelo zasolwandle ezizoba ngaphansi kwamanzi noma imiphumela yemizila emisha yasolwandle phezu kwezigxobo, kodwa ukucabanga kwabo okuyisisekelo akukashintshi. Kukhona nalabo abakhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwesabelomali esikhulu sokuvikela ukuze kuthuthukiswe izinguquko zemakethe ngeso elibheke ekuthinteni kokubili ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ezempi kanye nezakhamuzi.
Okokugcina, kukhona abasembuthweni abafinyelele esiphethweni sokuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kudinga isu elisha kazwelonke elihlanganisa inqubomgomo yasekhaya neyangaphandle futhi baxoxisana nabathintekayo abehlukene mayelana nokuthi kufanele kube yini indlela eya phambili.
Eminye imicabango mayelana nendlela yokusungula kabusha amasosha, kodwa ngokushesha!
Kumele senze uhlelo lwebutho lezempi elinikela ngamaphesenti angu-60 noma ngaphezulu kwesabelomali salo ekuthuthukiseni ubuchwepheshe, ingqalasizinda kanye nezinqubo zokumisa ukusabalala kwezingwadule, ukuvuselela izilwandle kanye nokuguqula izinhlelo zezimboni ezibhubhisayo zanamuhla zibe umnotho omusha, ozinzile. . Ibutho lezempi elathatha njengomsebenzi walo oyinhloko wokunciphisa ukungcoliswa komhlaba, ukuqapha imvelo, ukulungisa umonakalo emvelweni kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezinselele ezintsha lizobukeka kanjani? Singacabanga ngebutho lezempi umgomo walo oyinhloko akukhona ukubulala nokubhubhisa, kodwa ukulondoloza nokuvikela?
Sicela amasosha enze into okwamanje engadalelwe ukuyenza. Kodwa kuwo wonke umlando, amasosha ngokuvamile kuye kwadingeka ukuthi azisungule kabusha ukuze ahlangabezane nezinsongo zamanje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyinselele engafani nanoma yini impucuko yethu eyake yahlangabezana nayo. Ukuhlomisa kabusha amasosha ezinselele zemvelo kungenye yezinguquko eziningi esizozibona.
Ukwabiwa kabusha okuhlelekile kwayo yonke ingxenye yesistimu yamanje yezokuphepha kwezempi kungaba isinyathelo sokuqala sokusuka engcotsheni kuya ekuhlanganyeleni okuyisisekelo. I-Navy ingabhekana ngokuyinhloko nokuvikela nokubuyisela izilwandle; Umbutho Wasemoyeni wawuzothwala umthwalo womkhathi, uqaphe ukungcola kanye nokuthuthukisa amasu okunciphisa ukungcoliswa komoya; kuyilapho Amasosha ayekwazi ukusingatha ukongiwa komhlaba kanye nezindaba zamanzi. Wonke amagatsha azoba nesibopho sokubhekana nezinhlekelele zemvelo. Izinsizakalo zethu zezobunhloli zizothatha isibopho sokuqapha i-biosphere kanye nabangcolisi bayo, ukuhlola isimo sayo nokwenza iziphakamiso zesikhathi eside zokulungisa nokuzivumelanisa nezimo.
Ukushintsha kwesimo esinjalo kunikeza izinzuzo ezinkulu ezimbalwa. Ngaphezu kwakho konke, bekuzobuyisela inhloso nodumo embuthweni wezempi. Amasosha ake aba ubizo lwabaholi baseMelika abahamba phambili nabagqama kunabo bonke, abakhiqiza abaholi abafana noGeorge Marshall kanye noDwight Eisenhower, kunokuba abashokobezi bezombusazwe kanye nama-prima donnas afana noDavid Petraeus. Uma ukubaluleka kokushintsha kwezempi, izophinde ithole isikhundla sayo emphakathini waseMelika futhi izikhulu zayo zizophinde zikwazi ukudlala indima ebalulekile ekubambeni iqhaza kunqubomgomo kazwelonke futhi zingabukeli ziboshwe izingalo njengoba izinhlelo zezikhali zilandelwa ukuze kuzuze abantu. ama-lobbyists kanye nabaxhasi babo bezinkampani.
I-United States ibhekene nesinqumo esiyingqopha-mlando: Singalandela kancane indlela engenakugwenywa ebheke kwezempi kanye nokwehla kombuso, noma siguqule ngokuphelele inkimbinkimbi yamanje yezempi neyezimboni ibe yimodeli yokusebenzelana kwangempela kwembulunga yonke ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Umzila wakamuva usinikeza ithuba lokulungisa amaphutha eMelika futhi sihambe siye endaweni okungenzeka ukuthi izosihola ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ekuzijwayezeni nasekusindeni.
Ake siqale ngePacific Pivot
U-John Feffer uncoma ukuthi lolu shintsho lungaqala nge-East Asia futhi luthathe uhlobo lokunwetshwa kwe-“Pacific pivot” ehlonishwa kakhulu ye-Obama Administration. U-Feffer uyasikisela: “I-Pacific Pivot ingaba yisisekelo sombimbi olukhulu olubeka imvelo njengendikimba eyinhloko yokubambisana kwezokuphepha phakathi kwe-United States, i-China, i-Japan, i-Korea namanye amazwe aseMpumalanga Asia, ngaleyo ndlela kuncishiswe ubungozi bokungqubuzana kanye nokuphepha. izikhali kabusha.” Uma sigxila ezinsongweni zangempela, ngokwesibonelo ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa komnotho okusheshayo - ngokuphambene nokukhula okusimeme - kube nomthelela ekusakazekeni kwezingwadule, ukwehla kwamanzi ahlanzekile, kanye nesiko labathengi elikhuthaza ukusetshenziswa ngokungaboni, singanciphisa ingozi ukunqwabelana kwezingalo esifundeni. Njengoba indima ye-East Asia emnothweni womhlaba ikhula futhi imakwa emhlabeni wonke, ukushintsha kwesifunda emcabangweni wezokuphepha, kanye noshintsho oluhlobene nesabelomali sezempi, kungaba nomthelela omkhulu emhlabeni jikelele.
Labo abacabanga ukuthi "iMpi Yomshoshaphansi" entsha idla ubhedu eMpumalanga Asia bavame ukunganaki iqiniso lokuthi mayelana nokukhula ngokushesha komnotho, ukuhlanganiswa komnotho kanye nobuzwe, ukufana okusabekayo akukhona phakathi kwe-East Asia namuhla ne-East Asia phakathi nemibono yeMpi Yomshoshaphansi, kodwa kunalokho phakathi kweMpumalanga Asia namuhla kanye neYurophu ngo-1914. Leso sikhathi esibuhlungu sabona iFrance, iJalimane, i-Italy kanye noMbuso Wase-Austro-Hungarian, phakathi kokuhlangana okungakaze kubonwe kwezomnotho futhi naphezu kwezingxoxo namathemba okuthula okuhlala njalo, yehluleka ukuxazulula umlando osekunesikhathi eside ukhona. nezinkinga futhi ungene empini yezwe ebhubhisayo. Ukucabanga ukuthi sibhekene nenye "impi ebandayo" ukunganaki izinga ukwakhiwa kwezempi kuqhutshwa yizici zezomnotho zangaphakathi futhi akuhlangene kangako nemibono.
Ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwezempi kweChina kwafinyelela ku-$100 billion ngo-2012 ngokokuqala ngqa, njengoba ukwanda kwayo okunamadijithi amabili kuphoqa omakhelwane bayo ukuthi banyuse isabelomali sezempi. INingizimu Korea inyusa imali esetshenziswa ngayo kwezempi, njengoba kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngamaphesenti angu-5 ngonyaka wezi-2012. Nakuba iJapane igcine imali yayo kwezempi yaba yiphesenti elilodwa le-GDP yayo, undunankulu osanda kukhethwa, u-Abe Shinzo, ufuna ukwanda okukhulu kwamaJapane phesheya kwezilwandle. ukusebenza kwezempi njengobutha eChina bufike phezulu kakhulu.
Ngaleso sikhathi, iPentagon ikhuthaza abalingani bayo ukuthi bakhuphule ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwezempi futhi bathenge izikhali zase-US. Okuxakayo ukuthi ukuncishiswa okungenzeka kusabelomali sePentagon kuvame ukwethulwa njengamathuba okuthi ezinye izizwe zikhuphule ukusetshenziswa kwezempi ukuze zibambe iqhaza elikhulayo.
Isiphetho
I-Ambassador Kwon's Future Forest ibe yimpumelelo enkulu ekuhlanganiseni intsha yaseKorea neyaseShayina ukuze itshale izihlahla futhi yakhe “Udonga Olukhulu Oluluhlaza” oluzoqukatha Ugwadule lwaseKubuchi. Ngokungafani noDonga Olukhulu lwasendulo, lolu donga aluhloselwe ukubamba isitha somuntu, kodwa kunalokho ukudala umugqa wezihlahla njengokuvikela imvelo. Mhlawumbe ohulumeni base-East Asia nase-United States bangafunda esibonelweni esibekwe yilezi zingane futhi baqinise izingxoxo ze-Six Party Talks osekunesikhathi eside zikhubazekile ngokwenza indawo ezungezile nokuzivumelanisa nezimo kube isihloko esiyinhloko sengxoxo.
Amathuba okubambisana phakathi kokubili kwezinhlangano zamasosha nezakhamuzi eziphathelene nemvelo makhulu uma imigomo yengxoxo inwetshwa. Uma singakwazi ukuqondisa izimbangi zesifunda ngenjongo efanayo yezempi engadingi “izwe lesitha” okumele sivalelane naso, singakwazi ukugwema enye yezingozi ezinkulu zosuku lwamanje. Umphumela wokuthobisa isimo sokuncintisana nokwakhiwa kwezempi kungaba inzuzo enkulu ngokwako, ehluke kakhulu emalini eyenziwa umkhankaso wokubhekana nesimo sezulu.
Izingxoxo Zeqembu Eliyisithupha zingashintsha zibe “Inkundla Ye-Pivot Ehlaza” ehlola izinsongo zemvelo, ibeke izinto eziza kuqala phakathi kwababambe iqhaza futhi yabele izinsiza ezidingekayo ukuze kuliwe nezinkinga.
