NguWinslow Myers, Januwari 15, 2018.
Ekwahluleleni kwami njengesakhamuzi esinentshisekelo, kunezinga elimangalisayo lokuphika kanye nenkohliso emhlabeni wesu lenuzi, kuzo zonke izinhlangothi. UKim Jong Un ukhohlisa abantu bakhe ngenkulumo-ze engcolile mayelana nokuqothula i-United States. Kepha abantu baseMelika nabo babukela phansi amandla ezempi aseMelika, kanye namandla amanye amandla enyukliya — izinga lokucekelwa phansi okungaba ukuphela komhlaba. Ukuphika, ukucatshangelwa okungangabazeki, kanye nokwenza sengathi inqubomgomo ephusile. Ukubeka ukuvimbela impi kuqala kusithwe yi-paradigm ye-bellicosity evamile.
Ngokunikeza ukuthi iNorth Korea yaqala impi yaseKorea, i-80% yaseNyakatho Korea yabhujiswa ngaphambi kokuba iphele. Umphathi we-Strategic Air Command, uCurtis Lemay, waphonsa amabhomu amaningi eNyakatho Korea kunalawo aqhunyiswa kuyo yonke indawo yaseshashalazini yase-Asia-Pacific phakathi neMpi Yezwe II. Umnotho waseNyakatho Korea wehla futhi ingxenye yawo usululeme. Kwaba nendlala ngeminyaka yawo-1990. Akukho kuvalwa, akukho sivumelwano esisemthethweni sokuthula. Umqondo waseNyakatho Korea uwukuthi sisesempini—isizathu esikahle sokuthi abaholi babo bahlasele i-US, baphazamise imiqondo yezakhamuzi zabo ngesitha sangaphandle—iqembu elibusayo elivamile. Izwe lethu liyaqhubeka nokudlala kulesi simo.
Umndeni kaKim Jong Un unesandla ekuthengisweni kwezikhali okungemthetho ne-heroin, ukwenza imali yomgunyathi, impahla yesihlengo eyaphazamisa ngonya umsebenzi wezibhedlela emhlabeni wonke, ukubulawa kwezihlobo, ukuboshwa ngokungafanele, nokuhlukunyezwa kwabaphikisayo emakamu okusetshenzelwa kanzima ayimfihlo.
Kodwa inkinga yethu yamanje neNyakatho Korea iyisibonelo esithile nje sesimo seplanethi esivamile, esinzima ngokulinganayo kungxabano yaseKashmir, isibonelo, ehlanganisa i-nuclear India ne-nuclear Pakistan. Njengoba u-Einstein abhala ngo-1946, “Amandla e-athomu akhululiwe aye ashintsha yonke into ngaphandle kwezindlela zethu zokucabanga, futhi ngaleyo ndlela sikhukhulekela enhlekeleleni engenakuqhathaniswa.” Ngaphandle uma sithola indlela entsha yokucabanga, sizobe sibhekana nama-North Koreas amaningi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Bonke ubunkimbinkimbi besu lenuzi, bungahle buhlanganiswe bube namandla amabili angenakugwenywa: Sesidlule isikhathi eside umkhawulo wamandla okubhubhisa futhi alukho uhlelo lobuchwepheshe olusungulwe abantu oluhlale lungenaphutha.
Ibhomu le-thermonuclear eliqhume ngaphezu kwanoma iliphi idolobha elikhulu lalizokhuphula izinga lokushisa libe ngokuphindwe ka-4 noma ka-5 ngaphezu kwelanga. Yonke into eqhele ngamakhilomitha-skwele ayikhulu ukuzungeza lesi sibhicongo izovutha khona manjalo. Isivunguvungu somlilo sizokhiqiza imimoya engamamayela angu-500 ngehora, ekwazi ukuncela emahlathini, ezakhiweni nakubantu. Umle okhuphukela ku-troposphere usuka ekuqhunyisweni kokumbalwa okungu-1% kuya ku-5% wezikhali zomhlaba ungaba nomthelela wokupholisa iplanethi yonke futhi unciphise ishumi leminyaka amandla ethu okukhulisa lokho esikudingayo ukuze sizondle. Izigidigidi zaziyobulawa indlala. Angikaze ngizwe ngokulalelwa kwekhongolose okudingida lokhu okungenzeka okuthokozisayo—yize kungenalo ulwazi olusha. Eminyakeni engu-33 edlule, inhlangano yami, i-Beyond War, yaxhasa isethulo ngobusika benuzi eyanikezwa u-Carl Sagan kumanxusa ezizwe ezihlangene angama-80. Ubusika benuzi bungase bube yizindaba ezindala, kodwa ukuchithwa kwabo kwencazelo yamandla ezempi kuhlala kungakaze kwenzeke futhi kushintsha umdlalo. Amamodeli abuyekeziwe aphakamisa ukuthi ukuze kugwenywe ubusika benuzi, wonke amazwe ahlomile ngezikhali zenuzi kufanele ehlise izikhali zawo zibe yizimpi zezikhali ezingaba ngu-200.
Kodwa ngisho nokwehliswa okukhulu okunjalo akuyixazululi inkinga yephutha noma ukubala kabi, okuthi-okuqinisekiswe i-alamu yamanga yaseHawaii-kuyindlela okungenzeka ngayo impi yenuzi neNyakatho Korea. Isimo sobudlelwano bomphakathi ukuthi umongameli uhlala enaye amakhodi, izixhumanisi zesenzo sokuyekelela, okuwukuphela kwendlela impi yenuzi engaqalwa ngayo. Nakuba lokhu kuwukukhulisa izinwele ngokwanele, iqiniso lingase lidumaze nakakhulu. Ukuvinjelwa kwe-US noma iRussia, noma iNorth Korea ngaleyo ndaba, bekungaba nokwethembeka uma izitha zikholelwa ukuthi impi yenuzi inganqotshwa ngokukhipha inhloko-dolobha yesitha noma inhloko yezwe. Ngakho-ke lezi zinhlelo zenzelwe ukuqinisekisa ukuziphindiselela kwezinye izindawo, kanye nokwehla kochungechunge lwemiyalo.
Ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezikhali ezicitshwayo zaseCuba, uVasili Archipov wayeyisikhulu kumkhumbi-ngwenya waseSoviet lapho amasosha ethu asolwandle ayelahla lokho okwakubizwa ngokuthi amabhomu okuqhunyiswa, ukuze aphumele ngaphandle. AmaSoviet ayecabanga ukuthi amabhomu ayeyizindleko ezijulile. Amaphoyisa amabili abefuna ukudubula i-torpedo yenuzi endaweni eseduze ethwala izindiza zaseMelika. Ngokomthetho weSoviet Navy, izikhulu ezintathu kwadingeka zivumelane. Akekho owayegibele umkhumbi-ngwenya owayedinga imvume enekhodi yokuya phambili evela kuMnu. Khrushchev ukuze athathe isinyathelo esiyingozi ngasekupheleni komhlaba. Ngenhlanhla, u-Archipov wayengafuni ukuvuma. Ngokukhalipha okufanayo kobuqhawe, abazalwane bakwaKennedy banqanda uGeneral Curtis Lemay oshiwo ngenhla ukuthi angaqhumisi iCuba ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezikhali ezicitshwayo. Ukube ukuxhamazela kuka-Lemay kwaba namandla ngo-Okthoba 1962, ngabe sihlasela zombili izikhali zenuzi ezinobuhlakani kanye nemicibisholo ejikijelwayo ephakathi nendawo e-Cuba enezikhali zenuzi kakade zigibele kuzo. Robert McNamara: “Enkathini yenuzi, amaphutha anjalo angaba inhlekelele. Akunakwenzeka ukubikezela ngokuzethemba imiphumela yesenzo sezempi samandla amakhulu. Ngakho-ke, kufanele sifinyelele ukugwema izinkinga. Lokho kudinga ukuthi sizibeke esicathulweni somunye nomunye.”
Esikhathini sokukhululeka ngemva kwenhlekelele yaseCuba, isiphetho esiphusile sasiwukuthi “alukho uhlangothi oluwinile; umhlaba unqobile, asiqinisekise ukuthi ngeke siphinde sisondele ngale ndlela.” Noma kunjalo—saphikelela. UNobhala Wezwe uRusk ngokujabula wanikeza isifundo esingalungile: “Sibheke esweni futhi olunye uhlangothi lwacwayiza.” I-juggernaut yezempi-yezimboni emibusweni emikhulu nakwezinye izindawo yaqhubekela phambili. Ukuhlakanipha kuka-Einstein akuzange kushaywe indiva.
Ukuvinjelwa kwezikhali zenuzi kuqukethe lokho izazi zefilosofi ezikubiza ngokuthi ukuphikisana okusebenzayo: Ukuze zingalokothi zisetshenziswe, izikhali zawo wonke umuntu kufanele zigcinwe zilungele ukusetshenziswa ngokushesha, kodwa uma zisetshenziswa, sibhekana nokuzibulala kweplanethi. Indlela yokuwina akukona nje ukudlala.
Impikiswano yokubhujiswa okuqinisekisiwe ukuthi impi yomhlaba wonke ivinjwe iminyaka engama-73. UChurchill wakubonisa ngobuchule bakhe obuvamile bokukhuluma, kulokhu esekela umbono we-cockey: “Ukuphepha kuyoba ingane eqinile yokwesaba, futhi ukusinda kuyoba yiwele lembubhiso.”
Kodwa ukuvinjelwa kwezikhali zenuzi akuzinzile. Kuvalela izizwe emjikelezweni ongapheli wokwakha/zawakha, futhi sikhukhuleka kulokho izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo ezikubiza ngokuthi ukufunda ukungabi nalusizo. Naphezu kokucabanga kwethu ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zikhona ukuze zivimbele, kuphela njengokuzivikela, omongameli abaningi base-US baye bazisebenzisa ukusongela izitha. UGeneral MacArthur ngokusobala wayecabanga ukuzisebenzisa phakathi nempi yaseKorea, njengoba nje uNixon wayezibuza ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zingashintsha yini ukunqotshwa okuseduze kube ukunqoba eVietnam. Umholi wethu wamanje uthi kusizani ukuba nazo uma singakwazi ukuzisebenzisa? Lokho akuyona inkulumo yokuvimbela. Leyo yinkulumo yomuntu ongaqondi nhlobo ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zihluke kakhulu.
Ngo-1984, imicibisholo ejikijelwayo yebanga eliphakathi yafakwa e-Europe yithi kanye nesikhathi sokuthatha izinqumo se-USSR yazo zombili i-NATO namaSoviets safinyezwa saba imizuzu. Umhlaba wawusemaphethelweni, njengoba kunjalo namuhla. Noma ubani owaphila phakathi no-reds-under-the-bed hysteria wenkathi kaMcCarthy uzokhumbula ukuthi ukucabanga kwabantu abaningi mayelana neSoviet Union njengobugebengu, ububi kanye nokungamesabi uNkulunkulu kwakunamandla ngokuphindwe izikhathi eziyinkulungwane kunalokho esikuzwa namuhla ngoKim nezwe lakhe elincane. .
Ngo-1984, ukuhlonipha i-International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, inhlangano yami, i-Beyond War, yamisa “ibhuloho lomkhathi” elisakazwa bukhoma kuthelevishini phakathi kweMoscow neSan Francisco. Izithameli ezinkulu kuwo womabili amadolobha, zingahlukaniswanga nje kuphela yizindawo zezikhathi eziyishumi nambili kodwa namashumi eminyaka empi ebandayo, zilalele izicelo zomongameli abambisene be-IPPNW, zokubuyisana phakathi kwe-US kanye namaSoviet. Isikhathi esibaluleke kakhulu safika ekugcineni lapho sonke kuzo zombili izethameli siqala ukuqhweba sodwa.
Umgxeki wabhala ukuhlaziya okunzima komcimbi wethu ku-Wall Street Journal, egomela ukuthi i-US, isizwa ngaphezu kobuqili bempi obuwusizo, yaxhashazwa ekuvukeleni umbuso kwenkulumo-ze yamaKhomanisi. Kodwa ibhuloho lasemkhathini liphenduke elingaphezu nje komzuzu we kumbaya. Ukuthuthukisa abathintwayo bethu, sahlanganisa amaqembu amabili ososayensi benuzi bezinga eliphezulu abavela e-United States naseSoviet Union ukuze babhale incwadi ngempi yenuzi eyenzeka ngengozi, ebizwa ngokuthi “Ukugqashuka.” UGorbachev wayifunda. Umsebenzi wezigidi zababhikishi, ama-NGO afana ne-Beyond War, kanye nezikhulu zenkonzo yangaphandle ezichwepheshile zaqala ukuthela izithelo engxenyeni yesibili yawo-1980. Ngo-1987 uReagan noGorbachev basayina isivumelwano esibalulekile sokuqeda izikhali zenuzi. Udonga lwaseBerlin lwabhidlika ngo-1989. UGorbachev noReagan, ngesikhathi esibuhlungu sokucabanga, bahlangana ngo-1986 eReykjavik futhi baze bacabangela ukuqeda zonke izikhali zenuzi zemibuso emibili emikhulu. Izinyathelo ezinjalo zango-1980 zihlala zibalulekile enseleleni yaseNyakatho Korea. Uma sifuna ukuthi iNorth Korea ishintshe, sidinga ukuhlola indima yethu ekudaleni i-echo chamber of threat and counter-usongo.
Ukushona kukaDkt King kwaba yingozi enkulu kithi njengesizwe. Waxhumanisa amachashazi phakathi kokucwasa kwethu ngokwebala kanye nezempi yethu. Ngokuphawulekayo, uJenene Curtis Lemay, isibhamu somlilo saseTokyo eMpini Yezwe II, isishayo saseKorea, esasicishe sibe yimbangela yempi ye-thermonuclear enamandla amakhulu phakathi nenhlekelele yaseCuba, siphinde sivele emlandweni, ngo-1968, ngawo lowo nyaka uKing abulawa—njengoba uGeorge Wallace ebulala. ikhandidethi yephini likamongameli. Ukucabanga ukwenza e-Pyongyang ngo-2018 lokho esakwenza e-Hiroshima ngo-1945 kudinga ukwehliswa kobuntu kwabantu abayizigidi ezingu-25 baseNyakatho Korea. Ukuthethelelwa kukaLemay kokufa kwabantu abaningi kuvela endaweni efanayo yengqondo nobandlululo lukaGeorge Wallace (kanye noMongameli Trump).
Izingane zaseNyakatho Korea zikufanele ukuphila njengeyethu. Lokho akusikho ukumbaya. Lowo ngumlayezo iNorth Korea edinga ukuzwa kithi. Ukube iNkosi ibisenathi, ngabe iduma ukuthi izintela zethu zikhokhela ukubulawa kwabantu abaningi ngezinga elizokwenza ukuqothulwa kwamaJuda kubukeke njengepikiniki. Angaphikisa ngokuthi kuwukubalekela isimilo ukucabanga ukuthi ama-nukes ethu mahle ngoba abusa ngentando yabantu, kanti oKim mabi ngoba anobushiqela. Izwe lethu kumele okungenani liveze isihloko sezindinganiso eziphindwe kabili, lapho sivimbela izikhali zenuzi e-Iran naseNyakatho Korea kodwa hhayi thina. INorth Korea kanye ne-Iran kufanele kwenqatshelwe ubulungu beqembu lenuzi, kodwa-ke kufanele kube njalo nathi sonke.
Ukucabanga okusha kufuna ukuthi sibuze ngisho nabalingiswa abangathandeki njengoKim Jong Un, "ngingakusiza kanjani ukuthi usinde, ukuze sonke sisinde?" Bonke abathintwayo, okuhlanganisa nama-Olympics ase-Seoul, banikeza amathuba okuxhumana. Uma sinesineke ngokwecebo, iNorth Korea izothuthuka ngaphandle kwempi yaseKorea. Lokhu sekuvele kwenzeka njengoba amandla ezimakethe kanye nobuchwepheshe bolwazi kancane kancane busebenza ngendlela yabo esikweni labo elivaliwe.
Ukuvinjelwa kokugcina kwempi yenuzi, neNyakatho Korea noma nanoma ubani omunye, kudinga ukuncishiswa okuphelele, okufanayo, okuqinisekisiwe kwezikhali zenuzi zawo wonke umuntu, okokuqala phansi ngaphansi komkhawulo wasebusika wenuzi bese, isikhathi eside, kwehle kuze kufike kuqanda. Izwe lethu kumele lihole. UMnu. Trump kanye noMnu. Putin bangasebenzisa ubudlelwano babo obuyinqaba ngokusungula ingqungquthela engapheli yokuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi, kancane kancane babhalisele ukubamba iqhaza kwamanye amandla enuzi ayi-7. Umhlaba wonke ubuyobe ugxile empumelelweni, esikhundleni sokusesaba njengoba kwenzeka manje. Ukunyakaza okuhlangene okwakha ukuzethemba kungenzeka. OwayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela uWilliam Perry uphikisene ngokuthi i-United States izovikeleka kakhulu, hhayi kancane, uma singaqeda ngokuzimele ama-ICBM ethu angama-450 kuma-silos, umlenze osekelwe emhlabeni we-nuclear triad yethu.
Ababhali abanjengoSteven Pinker kanye noNick Kristof bahlonze inqwaba yezitayela eziphakamisa ukuthi iplanethi isuka kancane kancane empini. Ngifuna izwe lami lisize ukusheshisa lawo mathrendi, angawabambezeli, noma unkulunkulu asisize, awahlehlise. Bekufanele sisekele, kunokuba sidube, isivumelwano sakamuva se-UN esinqabela izikhali zenuzi. Amazwe ayi-122 kwangu-195 asayine leso sivumelwano. Isivumelwano esinjalo ekuqaleni singase sibonakale singenamazinyo, kodwa umlando usebenza ngezindlela eziyinqaba. Ngo-1928, amazwe angu-15 asayina isivumelwano sikaKellogg-Briand, esavimbela zonke izimpi. Yavunywa, uma ungakukholelwa, yiSenethi yase-United States ngevoti lama-85 ku-1. Isaqhubeka nokusebenza, nakuba ingasho ukuthi ihlonishwe kakhulu ekuphuleni kunomkhosi. Kodwa leyo dokhumenti okuthiwa i-pie-in-the-sky yanikeza isisekelo esingokomthetho sokulahla amaNazi ngamacala okubulala ukuthula phakathi nokuqulwa kwamacala eNuremberg.
Izinjini ezifanayo ezenza imicibisholo yethu ejikijelwa amandla nazo ziye zasiqhubezela emkhathini, okusivumela ukuba sibone umhlaba njengento ephilayo eyodwa—umfanekiso onengqondo, onamandla, ophelele wokuthembela kwethu komunye nomunye. Esikwenzayo kwabamelene nathi sikwenza kithi. Kungumsebenzi wesikhathi sethu ukufaka lokhu kucabanga okusha ngisho nasezibalweni zethu eziningi zokusinda kweMachiavellian—ukuzifaka ezicathulweni zomunye nomunye njengoba kusho uNobhala uMcNamara. Umkhathi awuzange ulethe iplanethi yethu ngenqubo yeminyaka eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-13.8 ukuze siqedele ngokuzilawula ngokwazo. Ukungasebenzi kahle komholi wethu wamanje kusiza kuphela ukucacisa ukungasebenzi kahle kohlelo lokuvimbela izikhali zenuzi lulonke.
Abameleli bethu badinga ukuzwa abaningi bethu becela ukulalelwa okuvulelekile ngenqubomgomo yenuzi, ikakhulukazi ubusika benuzi, ubuhlanya obuzilimazayo "bamaqhinga" afana nokuxwayisa, kanye nokuvinjelwa kwempi yenuzi ngephutha.
Umbono womhlaba osumisiwe uthi abantu abanenhliziyo enhle bazama ukwakha umphakathi othandekayo weNkosi, nokuthi ukuvimbela kwenuzi kuvikela lowo mphakathi ontekenteke emhlabeni oyingozi. INkosi ngabe ithe ukuvinjwa kwezikhali zenuzi kuyingxenye enkulu yengozi. Uma thina lapha e-United States singavumelana nesono sokuqala sokucwasa nobudlova bethu, besingabheka inselele yaseNyakatho Korea ngamehlo ahlukene, futhi bangase basibone ngendlela ehlukile futhi. Kuphakathi kokuthi sikhukhulela enhlekeleleni engenakuqhathaniswa noma senza konke okusemandleni ethu ukwakha umphakathi othandekayo weNkosi—emhlabeni wonke.
Winslow Myers, Martin Luther King Day, 2018
