Lokhu Kubheduka Kwezikhali Zenuzi Kubeka Engozini Umhlaba

Ngesikhathi sokungezwani okukhulayo phakathi kwamandla enuzi - iRussia ne-NATO eYurophu, kanye ne-US, North Korea, neChina e-Asia - iWashington ithuthukise buthule izikhali zayo zezikhali zenuzi ukuze idale, ngokusho kososayensi abathathu abahamba phambili baseMelika, "lokho kanye ungalindela ukubona, uma izwe elihlome ngezikhali zenuzi lihlela ukuba namandla okulwa futhi linqobe impi yenuzi ngokuphuca izitha ngesiteleka sokuqala esingalindelekile.”

Ukubhala ku I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, u-Hans Kristensen, umqondisi we-Nuclear Information Project ye-Federation of American Scientists, u-Matthew McKinzie we-National Resources Defense Council, kanye nochwepheshe be-physics kanye ne-ballistic missile u-Theodore Postol baphetha ngokuthi "Ngaphansi kweveli yohlelo olusemthethweni lokunweba impilo ye-warhead. ,” amasosha ase-US awandise kakhulu “amandla okubulala” ezimpi zawo kangangokuthi “asengakwazi manje ukucekela phansi zonke izisele ze-ICBM zaseRussia.”

Lokhu kuthuthukiswa - okuyingxenye yokuphathwa kuka-Obama kwesimanjemanje kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 1 zamabutho enuzi aseMelika - kuvumela iWashington ukuthi ibhubhise izikhali zenuzi ezisekelwe emhlabeni waseRussia, kuyilapho igcina amaphesenti angama-80 ezinhloko zempi zase-US. Uma iRussia ikhetha ukuziphindiselela, izoba ngumlotha.

Ukwehluleka Kokucabanga

Noma iyiphi ingxoxo ngempi yenuzi ihlangabezana nezinkinga ezinkulu eziningana.

Okokuqala, kunzima ukucabanga noma ukuqonda ukuthi kungasho ukuthini empilweni yangempela. Sibe nokungqubuzana okukodwa kuphela okubandakanya izikhali zenuzi - ukucekelwa phansi kweHiroshima neNagasaki ngo-1945 - futhi inkumbulo yalezo zenzakalo iye yashabalala ngokuhamba kweminyaka. Kunoma ikuphi, amabhomu amabili acaba lawo madolobha aseJapane awafani neze namandla okubulala ezikhali zenuzi zanamuhla.

Ibhomu laseHiroshima laqhuma ngamandla angu-15 kilotons, noma kt. Ibhomu laseNagasaki lalinamandla kakhudlwana, cishe ngo-18 kt. Phakathi kwabo, babulala abantu abangaphezu kuka-215,000. Ngokuphambene, isikhali senuzi esivame kakhulu endaweni yezikhali yase-US namuhla, i-W76, sinamandla okuqhuma angu-100 kt. Okulandelayo okuvame kakhulu, i-W88, ipakisha i-punch engu-475-kt.

Enye inkinga ukuthi iningi lomphakathi licabanga ukuthi impi yenuzi ayinakwenzeka ngoba izinhlangothi zombili zizobhujiswa. Lona umbono wenqubomgomo ye-Mutually Assured Destruction, ebizwa ngokufanelekile ngokuthi “MAD.”

Kodwa i-MAD akuyona imfundiso yezempi yase-US. Ukuhlasela "kwesiteleka sokuqala" bekulokhu kuyisisekelo sokuhlela amasosha ase-US, kuze kube muva nje. Kodwa-ke, sasingekho isiqinisekiso sokuthi ukuhlasela okunjalo kwakuzokhubaza omelene naye kangangokuthi angeke akwazi - noma angafuni, uma kubhekwa imiphumela yokuqothulwa ngokuphelele - ukuziphindiselela.

Isu elilandela isiteleka sokuqala - ngezinye izikhathi okubizwa ngokuthi "i-counter force" - akukhona ukucekela phansi izikhungo zabantu abaphikisana nabo, kodwa ukuqeda izikhali zenuzi zezinye izinhlangothi, noma okungenani eziningi zazo. Amasistimu okuvikela imicibisholo azobe esevimbela isiteleka sokuziphindiselela esibuthakathaka.

Ukuphumelela kobuchwepheshe okwenza lokhu kube nokwenzeka kungazelelwe yinto ebizwa ngokuthi “i-super-fuze”, evumela ukuthungela okunembe kakhudlwana kwekhanda lempi. Uma inhloso kuwukuqhumisa idolobha, ukunemba okunjalo akudingekile. Kodwa ukukhipha isisele se-missile esiqinisiwe kudinga i-warhead ukuze isebenzise amandla okungenani amaphawundi angu-10,000 iyintshi yesikwele ngayinye kulokho okuhlosiwe.

Kuze kube uhlelo lwesimanje lwango-2009, okuwukuphela kwendlela yokwenza lokho kwakuwukusebenzisa enamandla kakhulu - kodwa enomkhawulo ngezinombolo - i-W88 warhead. Ifakwe i-super-fuze, nokho, i-W76 encane manje ingenza umsebenzi, ikhulule i-W88 kwezinye izinhloso.

Ngokwesiko, imicibisholo ecitshwayo esekelwe emhlabeni inembe kakhulu kunemicibisholo ejikijelwa olwandle, kodwa eyokuqala isengozini yokushaywa kuqala kunalena yakamuva, ngoba imikhumbi-ngwenya ikwazi ukucasha. I-super-fuze entsha ayikukhulisi ukunemba kwemicibisholo engaphansi kolwandle i-Trident II, kodwa ikwenzela lokho ngokunemba kokuthi isikhali siqhuma kuphi. “Endabeni yekhanda lempi elingu-100-kt Trident II,” kubhala ososayensi abathathu, “umfutho ophakeme uphindaphindeka kathathu amandla okubulala amandla enuzi esetshenziswa kuwo.”

Ngaphambi kokuthi kusetshenziswe i-super-fuze, amaphesenti angama-20 kuphela abaxhasi base-US ababenamandla okucekela phansi ama-missile silo aphinde aphoqelelwa. Namuhla, bonke banalelo khono.

Imicibisholo ye-Trident II ivamise ukuthwala ama-warheads amane kuye kwayisihlanu, kodwa inganweba lokho kufikela kwayisishiyagalombili. Ngenkathi umcibisholo ukwazi ukusingatha ama-warheads amaningi njenge-12, lokho kulungiselelwa kuzophula izivumelwano zenuzi zamanje. Imikhumbi-ngwenya yase-US njengamanje isakaza cishe ama-warheads angu-890, kuwo angu-506 angama-W76 kanye nama-384 angama-W88.

Ama-ICBM asekelwe emhlabeni yiMinuteman III, ngalinye lihlome ngamakhanda empi amathathu - angama-400 esewonke - asuka ku-300 kt kuya ku-500 kt lilinye. Kukhona futhi imicibisholo ecitshwayo yasemoyeni neyasolwandle namabhomu anezici zenuzi. Imicibisholo ye-Tomahawk cruise esanda kuhlasela iSyria ingalungiselelwa ukuthi iphathe izikhali zenuzi.

Igebe Lobuchwepheshe

I-super-fuze iphinde inyuse amathuba okuba kube nengxabano ngengozi yenuzi.

Kuze kube manje, umhlaba ukwazile ukugwema impi yenuzi, nakuba phakathi nenhlekelele ye-missile yaseCuba yango-1962 yasondela ngokudabukisayo. Kube khona futhi eziningana izehlakalo ezesabekayo lapho amabutho ase-US nawaseSoviet eqaphile ngokugcwele ngenxa yezithombe ze-radar ezinephutha noma itheyipu yokuhlola othile owayecabanga ukuthi ingeyangempela. Ngenkathi amasosha ebukela phansi lezi zenzakalo, owayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela UWilliam Perry uphikisa ngokuthi kuyinhlanhla ukuthi sikugweme ukuhwebelana ngezikhali zenuzi - nokuthi amathuba empi yenuzi makhulu namuhla kunalokho ayeyikho ngesikhathi seMpi Yomshoshaphansi.

Ngokwengxenye, lokhu kungenxa yegebe lobuchwepheshe phakathi kwe-US neRussia.

NgoJanuwari 1995, i-radar yaseRussia eyisixwayiso sangaphambi kwesikhathi eNhlonhlweni yaseKola yacosha ukuqhuma kwamarokhethi esiqhingini saseNorway okwakubukeka sengathi ibhekise eRussia. Eqinisweni, i-rocket yayibheke eNyakatho Pole, kodwa i-radar yaseRussia yawumaka njenge-missile ye-Trident II engena ivela eNyakatho ye-Atlantic. Isimo sasizwakala. Ngenkathi okunye ukuhlasela kwesiteleka sokuqala kucabanga ukwethulwa kwenani elikhulu lemicibisholo ejikijelwayo, abanye bafuna ukuqhunyiswa kwekhanda lempi elikhulu phezu kwethagethi ebangeni elingamakhilomitha angama-800 ukuphakama. Ukushaywa okukhulu kwemisebe kazibuthe okukhiqizwa ukuqhuma okunjalo kungaphuphuthekisa noma kukhubaze amasistimu e-radar endaweni ebanzi. Lokho bekuzolandelwa ngesiteleka sokuqala.

Ngaleso sikhathi, amakhanda azolile abusa futhi abaseRussia bayeka ukuqapha, kodwa imizuzu embalwa iwashi lembubhiso lasondela kakhulu phakathi kwamabili.

Ngokusho the I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, inhlekelele yango-1995 isikisela ukuthi iRussia ayinaso “isimiso esinokwethenjelwa nesisebenzayo sesathelayithi esisekelwe emkhathini emhlabeni wonke.” Esikhundleni salokho, iMoscow igxile ekwakhiweni kwezinhlelo ezisekelwe phansi ezinikeza abantu baseRussia isikhathi esincane sokuxwayisa kunesesekelwe ku-satellite. Lokho kusho ukuthi nakuba i-US izoba nemizuzu engaba ngu-30 yesikhathi sokuxwayisa ukuze iphenye ukuthi ngabe ukuhlasela kwenzeka ngempela yini, amaRussia azoba nemizuzu engu-15 noma ngaphansi.

Lokho, ngokwalo magazini, cishe bekuyosho ukuthi “ubuholi baseRussia ngeke bube nakwenza lutho ngaphandle kokudlulisela igunya lokwethulwa kwezikhali zenuzi emazingeni aphansi okulawula,” okungesona neze isimo esingeke sibe ngokwezithakazelo zokuphepha zezwe noma yiliphi izwe.

Noma, ngaleyo ndaba, umhlaba.

A ucwaningo lwamuva ithole ukuthi impi yenuzi phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan isebenzisa izikhali ezilingana neHiroshima izodala ubusika benuzi obuzokwenza kungenzeki ukutshala ukolweni eRussia naseCanada futhi kunqamule imvula yase-Asia Monsoon ngamaphesenti angu-10. Umphumela ungaba ukufa kwabantu abayizigidi eziyi-100 ngendlala. Cabanga ukuthi bekungaba yini umphumela uma izikhali bezilingana neRussia, iChina, noma i-US

Kubantu baseRussia, ukuthuthukiswa kwemicibisholo yase-US esekelwe olwandle nge-super-fuze kungaba intuthuko esabekayo. "Ngokushintsha amandla emikhumbi-ngwenya engathuthela ezindaweni zokwethulwa kwemicibisholo eduze kakhulu nalokho okuhlosiwe kunemicibisholo ecitshwayo esekelwe emhlabeni," baphetha ososayensi abathathu, "amasosha ase-US azuze amandla amakhulu kakhulu okwenza isiteleka sokuqala esimangazayo ngokumelene ne-ICBM yaseRussia. izinsimbi.”

Umkhumbi-ngwenya wekilasi lase-Ohio wase-US uhlome ngemicibisholo engama-24 ye-Trident II, ephethe amakhanda empi afinyelela kwangu-192. Imicibisholo ingavulwa esikhathini esingaphansi komzuzu.

AmaRussia namaShayina anemikhumbi-ngwenya edubula imicibisholo futhi, kodwa ayiminingi, kanti eminye iseduze nokungasasebenzi. I-US iphinde yatshala izilwandle nezilwandle zomhlaba ngamanethiwekhi ezinzwa ukuze ilandelele labo ababhalisile. Kunoma yikuphi, ngabe amaRussia noma amaShayina angaziphindiselela yini uma azi ukuthi i-US isaligcinile iningi lamasosha ayo ezikhali zenuzi? Lapho bebhekene nokukhetha ukuzibulala ezweni lonke noma ukubamba umlilo, bangase bakhethe okokuqala.

Esinye isici kulolu hlelo lwesimanje esinezinkathazo eRussia neChina yisinqumo sabaphathi baka-Obama sokubeka amasistimu okuvikela imicibisholo e-Europe nase-Asia, kanye nokukhipha amasistimu e-antimissile ase-Aegis asekelwe emikhunjini ogwini lwasePacific nase-Atlantic. Ngokombono weMoscow - kanye neBeijing - lezo zixhumi zikhona ukuze zibambe imicibisholo embalwa engase igeje isiteleka sokuqala.

Eqinisweni, izinhlelo ze-antimissile zihle kakhulu. Uma sezifudukile emabhodini okudweba, ukusebenza kahle kwazo okuyingozi kwehla kakhulu. Eqinisweni, iningi labo alikwazi ukushaya inqolobane ebanzi. Kodwa lelo akulona ithuba amaShayina namaRussia angakwazi ukulithatha.

Ekhuluma e-St. Petersburg International Forum ngoJuni 2016, uMongameli waseRussia u-Valdimir Putin wamangalela ngokuthi amasistimu e-antimissile ase-US ePoland naseRomania ayengahlosiwe e-Iran, kodwa eRussia naseChina. "Usongo lwase-Iran alukho, kepha izinhlelo zokuvikela imicibisholo ziyaqhubeka nokumiswa." Wengeze wathi, "uhlelo lokuvikela imicibisholo luyingxenye yalo lonke uhlelo lwamandla ezempi ahlaselayo."

Ukuqaqa Izivumelwano Zezikhali

Ingozi lapha ukuthi izivumelwano zezikhali zizoqala ukonakala uma amazwe enquma ukuthi asengozini ngokuzumayo. Kubantu baseRussia kanye namaShayina, isisombululo esilula kunazo zonke empumelelweni yaseMelika ukwakha imicibisholo eminingi kanye nama-warheads, futhi izivumelwano kufanele zilahlwe.

I-Russian cruise missile entsha ingase ibe nzima ngempela i-Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, kodwa futhi iyimpendulo yemvelo kulokho, ngokombono we-Moscow, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ethusayo eyenziwa yi-US Ukube abaphathi baka-Obama bahlehlisa isinqumo sika-2002 sikaGeorge W. Bush. ukuze kuhoxiswe ngokuzimele ku-Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, uhambo olusha lomkhumbi kungenzeka ukuthi alukaze lusetshenziswe.

Kunezinyathelo ezimbalwa ezisheshayo ezingathathwa yi-US kanye nabaseRussia ukuze banciphise ukungezwani okukhona. Okokuqala, ukususa izikhali zenuzi esikhundleni sazo sokususa izinwele kunganciphisa ngokushesha amathuba empi yenuzi eyenzeka ngengozi. Lokho kungalandelwa isifungo se "Akukho ukusetshenziswa kokuqala" wezikhali zenuzi.

Uma lokhu kungenzeki, cishe kuzoholela ekusheshisweni umjaho wezikhali zenuzi. “Angazi ukuthi konke lokhu kuzophela kanjani,” kusho uPutin etshela izihambeli zaseSt. “Engikwaziyo ukuthi sizodinga ukuzivikela.”

Umlobi we-Foreign Policy In Focus u-Conn Hallinan angafundwa lapha www.dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com futhi www.middleempireseries.wordpress.com. Iphrintwe kabusha ngemvume evela Inqubomgomo Yangaphandle Igxile.