Ngu-Marc Pilisuk, Oct, 24, 2017
Ngesikhathi sokulila noma ukwesaba izinsongo ezimbi kakhulu ezikhona, ingqondo yomuntu iyakwazi ukuphika nokuziba izingozi ezingase zibe khona neziseduze. UMongameli uTrump uphakamise ithemba lokungena empini yenuzi neNorth Korea. Kubalulekile ukuthi abanye bethu bamelane nalokhu kuthambekela. Empini yenuzi kuba khona ukuqhuma, isivunguvungu kanye nemiphumela yemisebe futhi abekho abaphenduli bokuqala noma ingqalasizinda yokusiza abasindile. Lesi yisikhathi sokubhekana nokuvinjelwa kokungacabangeki.
Izikhali zeNuclear
Kuze kube yilapho kufika ibhomu le-athomu, impi yayingenawo amandla okuqeda, ngaso sonke isikhathi, ukuqhubeka kwabantu noma ukusongela ukuqhubeka kwempilo ngokwayo. Amabhomu e-athomu awela e-Hiroshima naseNagasaki akhiqize ukufa kwabantu abaningi ngokushesha ngezikhali ezingazodwana ezaziwayo. Ezinyangeni ezimbili kuya kwezine zokuqala kulandela ukuqhuma kwamabhomu, imiphumela emibi yokuqhuma kwamabhomu e-athomu yabulala abantu abayizi-90,000–146,000 e-Hiroshima kanye nabangu-39,000–80,000 eNagasaki; cishe ingxenye yokufa kwedolobha ngalinye kwenzeka ngosuku lokuqala.
Usongo lwezikhali zenuzi luye lwanda. Leli qiniso lavezwa nguMongameli Kennedy:
Namuhla, wonke umuntu ohlala kule planethi kumelwe acabange ngosuku lapho le planethi ingase ingasakwazi ukuhlalwa khona. Wonke umuntu wesilisa, owesifazane, nengane baphila ngaphansi kwenkemba yenuzi ye-Damocles, ilenga imicu emincane kunazo zonke, ekwazi ukusikwa nganoma isiphi isikhathi ngengozi noma ukubalwa kabi noma ubuhlanya.[i]
OwayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela uWilliam J. Perry wathi, “Angikaze ngesabe kakhulu ukuqhunyiswa kwezikhali zenuzi kunamanje—Kunamathuba angaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-50 okuteleka kwezikhali zenuzi phakathi neminyaka eyishumi.”[Ii] Izingozi ze-apocalyptic ezifana nalezi, esaziyo ukuthi zikhona kodwa ezisaziba, ziyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela kithi. Zisisunduzela kude nokuxhumana kwesikhathi eside neplanethi yethu, zisicindezela ukuthi siphilele umzuzwana sengathi umzuzu ngamunye ungaba owokugcina.[Iii]
Ukunakwa komphakathi kwamanje kugxile ekutheni kungenzeka ukuthi amaphekula ahlasele izikhali zenuzi. Inhlangano ye-RAND yenze ukuhlaziya ukuze ihlole umthelela wokuhlasela kwamaphekula okubandakanya ukuqhuma kwenuzi okungamakhilothoni angu-10 echwebeni laseLong Beach, eCalifornia.[Iv] Isethi yamathuluzi okubikezela amasu asetshenziswa ukuze kuhlolwe imiphumela esheshayo neyesikhathi eside. Iphethe ngokuthi indawo yendawo noma izwe alizimisele neze ukubhekana nobungozi obungase bube khona bezikhali zenuzi ezilethwe e-US emkhunjini wamabhokisi. I-Long Beach iyichweba lesithathu elimatasatasa emhlabeni, cishe u-30% wayo yonke impahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle yase-US kanye nezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ezihamba kuyo. Umbiko waphawula ukuthi isikhali senuzi esiqhuma phansi esiqhunyiswe esitsheni semikhumbi singenza amakhulu amaningana amakhilomitha-skwele asendaweni engahlali muntu Ukuqhuma okunjalo kungaba nomthelela ongakaze ubonwe kwezomnotho ezweni lonke nasemhlabeni. Njengesibonelo esisodwa, umbiko waphawula ukuthi izindawo zokuhluza uwoyela ezimbalwa eziseduze zizocekelwa phansi futhi kuzoqeda wonke uphethiloli otholakala oGwini LwaseNtshonalanga ezinsukwini ezimbalwa. Lokhu kuzoshiya izikhulu zedolobha ukuthi zibhekane nokushoda kukaphethiloli ngokushesha kanye namathuba anamandla okuqubuka kwezibhelu. Imiphumela yokuqhuma izohambisana nezivunguvungu zomlilo kanye nokuphuma kwemisebe okuhlala isikhathi eside, konke okunomthelela ekuweni kwengqalasizinda yendawo. Imithelela emnothweni womhlaba ingase ibe yinhlekelele ngenxa yezizathu ezimbili: okokuqala, ukubaluleka kwezomnotho kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngemikhumbi emhlabeni wonke, okungaphazanyiswa kakhulu ukuhlasela, okwesibili, ukuntenga okubhalwe kahle kwezinhlelo zezimali zomhlaba.[V]
Ngokwezindinganiso zamanje ukuqhuma kwe-nuclear-kiloton eyishumi kumele isampula encane yamandla ezikhali zenuzi ezinkulu manje ezindaweni zezikhali zenani elikhulayo lamazwe. Kunzima ngisho nokucabanga ukuthi isiteleka senuzi esikhulu singasho ukuthini. Omunye owayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela, uRobert McNamara ukhumbula isipiliyoni sakhe ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezikhali ezicitshwayo zaseCuba lapho umhlaba usondela ekuhwebeni kwezikhali zenuzi okwethulwa yi-US kanye neSoviet Union ngokumelene nomunye. Esixwayisweni sakhe esisangulukisayo Eminyakeni eminingi kamuva uMcNamara wacaphuna umbiko we-International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, echaza imiphumela yesikhali esisodwa esingu-1-megaton:
Emhlabathini onguziro, ukuqhuma kudala i-crater engamafidi angama-300 ukushona namafidi angu-1,200 ububanzi. Phakathi nomzuzwana owodwa, umkhathi ngokwawo uvutha ube yibhola lomlilo elingaphezu kwengxenye yemayela ububanzi. Ingaphezulu lebhola lomlilo likhipha ukukhanya okuphindwe kathathu ukukhanya nokushisa kwendawo eqhathaniswayo yobuso belanga, licisha ngemizuzwana yonke impilo engaphansi futhi likhiphele ngaphandle ngesivinini sokukhanya, okubangela ukusha okubi kakhulu ngokushesha kubantu phakathi kwemayela elilodwa kuya kwamathathu. . Igagasi eliqhumayo lomoya ocindezelwe lifinyelela ebangeni elingamakhilomitha amathathu ngemizuzwana eyi-12, izimboni eziyisicaba nezakhiwo zezentengiselwano. Imfucumfucu ethwelwe imimoya engu-250 mph idala ukulimala okubulalayo kuyo yonke indawo. Okungenani amaphesenti angama-50 abantu endaweni bafa ngokushesha, ngaphambi kokulimala emisebeni noma ngenxa yesiphepho somlilo.ii
Ukube ukuhlasela kwe-Twin Towers kwakuhilela ibhomu lenuzi elingamamegaton angu-20, amaza aqhumayo ayeyodlula kuso sonke isimiso sesitimela esingaphansi komhlaba. Kufika kumamayela ayishumi nanhlanu ukusuka emfucumfucwini endizayo eyiziro, eqhutshwa imithelela yokufuduka, bekungabandisa abalimele. Cishe imililo ehlukene eyi-200,000 ibingakhiqiza ukukhiqiza isivunguvungu esinamazinga okushisa afika ku-1,500 degrees. Ibhomu lenuzi licekela phansi indwangu yamanzi, ukudla, nophethiloli wezokuthutha, izinsiza zezokwelapha namandla kagesi. Ukulimala kwemisebe kucekela phansi futhi kukhubaze izinto eziphilayo iminyaka engu-240,000.[vi]
Asikho isizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi ukuhlasela kwezikhali zenuzi kungahilela isikhali esisodwa kuphela esinjalo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imifanekiso engenhla ingeyebhomu lenuzi eliphansi kakhulu elinamandla okucekela phansi kunamabhomu amaningi atholakalayo manje asesimweni sokuqapha. Lezi zikhali ezinkulu ziyakwazi lokho uGeorge Kennan aye wakubheka njengokucekela phansi okukhulu kangangokuthi kuphambene nokuqonda okunengqondo.[vii] Amabhomu anjalo, kanye namanye asacekela phansi kakhulu, aqukethwe kuzikhali ezicitshwayo, eziningi ezikwazi ukuletha ama-warhead amaningi.
Ngemva kokuwa kweSoviet Union, izikhali zenuzi ezigciniwe ezingaphezu kwalokho ebezingadingeka ukuze zicekele phansi bonke abantu emhlabeni ziye zancipha. Kodwa-ke, izikhali zenuzi ezingu-31,000 zisekhona emhlabeni-iningi lazo ngezaseMelika noma zaseRussia, izinombolo ezimbalwa eziphethwe yi-United Kingdom, France neChina, India, Pakistan kanye no-Israel. Ukwehluleka ukuqeda ukungqubuzana kwezikhali zenuzi phakathi kweRussia ne-US kushiya lezi zizwe zombili zinezimpi zenuzi zamasu angaphezu kwe-2,000 ezisesimweni sokuqwashisa. Lezi zingethulwa emizuzwini embalwa nje futhi umgomo wazo oyinhloko usawukucekela phansi amandla enuzi wezinhlangothi eziphikisayo, ingqalasizinda yezimboni, nobuholi bezepolitiki/bezempi.[viii] Manje sinamandla okucekela phansi, ngaso sonke isikhathi, wonke umuntu, zonke izinhlobo zotshani, nayo yonke into ephilayo eye yavela kulo mhlaba. Kodwa ingabe ukucabanga kwethu kuye kwavela ukuze sikwazi ukuvimbela lokhu kungenzeki?
Amazwi ethu adinga ukuzwakala. Okokuqala, singanxusa abaholi bethu ukuthi benze uTrump avale izinsongo zempi yenuzi, noma ngabe ngokusebenzisa ukuthopha noma ngokucindezelwa ngabeluleki bakhe bezempi. Okwesibili, uma sisinda ngesikhathi omunye wemisebenzi ebaluleke kakhulu ukuvimba ukwenziwa kwezikhali zenuzi zibe zesimanje. Ama-Nukes awadingi ukuhlolwa ukuze athole isivuno esiphelele ukuze asebenze njengesivimbeli. Ukwenziwa ngcono kwamandla okucekela phansi kuholele emjahweni wenuzi.
Ukwenziwa kwesimanjemanje, ngokusho kwe-CBO kuzobiza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400 ngokushesha futhi kusuka ku-$1.25 kuye ku-$1.58 trillion eminyakeni engamashumi amathathu. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezikhali zenuzi eziklanyelwe ukusetshenziswa enkundleni yempi kuzobekela ezinye izizwe inselele ukuthi zizithenge futhi kumeme umkhawulo wokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi okufanele kwephulwe. Manje yisikhathi sokugcizelela kuKhongolose yethu ukuthi ukwenziwa kwezikhali zenuzi zesimanje kwehliswe kwisabelomali sikazwelonke. Lokhu kuzothenga isikhathi sokuphulukisa iplanethi nomphakathi wesintu ngaphansi kwengcindezi ejulile.
Okubhekwayo
[i] Kennedy, JF (1961, Septhemba). Inkulumo emhlanganweni omkhulu we-UN. IMiller Center, iNyuvesi yaseVirginia, eCharlottesville, eVirginia. Ibuyiswe ku-http://millercenter.org/president/speeches/detail/5741
[Ii] McNamara, RS (2005). I-Apocalypse Maduze. Umagazini Wenqubomgomo Yangaphandle. Ibuyiselwe kusuka http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2829
[Iii] UMacy, JR (1983). Ukuphelelwa ithemba namandla omuntu enkathini yenuzi. Philadelphia, PA: Inhlangano Entsha.
[Iv] Meade, C. & Molander, R. (2005). Ihlaziya umthelela wezomnotho wokuhlasela kwamaphekula okuyinhlekelele echwebeni laseLong Beach. Inkampani RAND CORP. W11.2 Kutholwe ku http://birenheide.com/sra/2005AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W11
http://www.ci.olympia.wa.us/council/Corresp/NPTreportTJJohnsonMay2005.pdf
[V] Ibid.
[vi] IKomidi Lososayensi Lolwazi Lwemisebe (1962). Imithelela Yebhomu Engamashumi Amabili-Megaton. Umcabango weNyuvesi Entsha: Intwasahlobo, 24-32.
[vii] Kennan, GF (1983). Inkohliso Yenuzi: Ubudlelwano beSoviet American ngesikhathi senuzi. ENew York: I-Pantheon.
[viii] U-Starr, S. (2008). Izikhali Zenuzi Eziqaphile: Ingozi Ekhohliwe. Iphepha lezindaba le-SGR (Ososayensi Bomsebenzi Womhlaba Wonke)., No.36, Kubuyiswe kusukela http://www.sgr.org.uk/publications/sgr-newsletter-no-36
*Izingxenye ezicashuniwe Isakhiwo Esifihliwe Sobudlova: Ubani Ohlomula Udlame Lomhlaba Wonke Nempi nguMarc Pilisuk noJennifer Achord Rountree. E-New York, NY: Ukubuyekezwa Kwanyanga zonke, 2015.
UMarc Pilisuk, Ph.D.
USolwazi Emeritus, Inyuvesi yaseCalifornia
I-Faculty, i-Saybrook University
I-Ph 510-526-1788
Siyabonga ku-Kelisa Ball ngosizo lokuhlela nokucwaninga
http://marcpilisuk.com/bio.html
