Izikhali Ezintsha ZaseNyakatho Korea: Isivinini Esigcwele Phambili

NguMel Gurtov

INorth Korea ikhala izinyembezi. Iphendula unswinyo lwe-UN, yenze isivivinyo sayo sesine senuzi ngoJanuwari kanye nokwethulwa kwesathelayithi okwakunomthelela wemicibisholo ngoFebhuwari. Kwathi lapho kubekwa unswinyo olusha lwe-UN futhi kuqala ukuvivinya umzimba kwamasosha e-US-ROK inyanga yonke yonyaka, i-DPRK yahlukana nomkhuba wayo ojwayelekile ngokudonsela ukunakekela ezikhalini eziningi ethi inazo. Ibukise i-road-mobile intercontinental-range missile (mhlawumbe ayikakhiqizi), yethula imicibisholo yebanga elifushane emihlanu eMpumalanga noma e-Japan Sea, yathi inenjini ekhiqizwe ngokomdabu ezokwenza i-ICBM ifinyelele e-US ngesikhali senuzi. , abathi bahlole isikhali senuzi esincane, bavivinya umcibisholo ocitshwayo webanga eliphakathi nendawo (esihluleke kabili), futhi bahlola umcibisholo ophuma kumkhumbi-ngwenya. Isivivinyo senuzi sesihlanu singenzeka ngaphambi kwezinsuku zengqungquthela yeqembu elikhulu kusukela manje.

Kanjani futhi nini noma yiziphi izikhali iNyakatho ethi inazo kungenzeka zisebenze empeleni kuvuleke ukuqagela. Ezinye izikhulu zamasosha ase-US, kanye nochwepheshe baseNingizimu Korea, manje sebekwamukela ukuthi iNyakatho isivele inamandla okufinyelela e-US ngomcibisholo ocijwe nge-nuclear, kuyilapho. ochwepheshe abaphikisana nalowo mbono nokho bayakholelwa abaseNyakatho maduzane bazoba nalelo khono.

Okubonakala kucacile ukuthi uKim Jong-un ucindezela ochwepheshe bakhe bezikhali ukuthi bakhiqize isivimbeli esithembekile esizophoqa udaba lwezingxoxo eziqondile ne-US. Ukuhlangana nochwepheshe bezikhali zenuzi ekuqaleni kukaMashi, wancoma umsebenzi wabo futhi, ngokusho kwabezindaba zaseNyakatho Korea, wacaphuna ngokuqondile "ucwaningo olwenziwe ukuze kutholakale imicibisholo ecitshwayo enamasu namasu anezimpi zenuzi," okusho ukuthi isikhali senuzi esincane.  UKim ucashuniwe njengoba ethi “kuyajabulisa kakhulu ukubona izikhali zenuzi ezinokwakheka kwezindleko ezixubile ezanele ukusabela ngokushesha kwe-thermo-nuclear. Izikhali zenuzi zenziwe zafana ukuze zilungele imicibisholo ye-ballistic ngokuyenza ibe mincane . . . lokhu kungabizwa ngokuthi [a] isivimbeli senuzi sangempela . . . Abantu baseKorea bangenza noma yini uma benesifiso.”

Imithombo yaseNingizimu Korea iyaqiniseka ukuthi iNyakatho manje ingabeka impi yenuzi ebangeni eliphakathi (amamayela angama-800) Rodong imicibisholo ekwazi ukufinyelela yonke i-ROK ne-Japan. I INorth yethula lezi esivivinyweni ngoNdasa. Ukuthi iNyakatho isiwufakile ngempela umcibisholo onjalo akwaziwa; futhi akwaziwa ukuthi iNyakatho izokwazi yini ukwenza okufanayo uma isiphethe i-ICBM.

I-North Korea inomlando omude wobuzwe obunobudlova ekuphenduleni izinsongo zangaphandle, okubonakala emazwini kaKim Jong-un acashunwe ngenhla nangejubane ethuthukisa ngalo amandla enuzi nezikhali ezicitshwayo. NjengaseNyakatho neVietnam ngesikhathi seMpi YaseVietnam, i-DPRK ngeke ithathe imiyalo evela kwamanye amazwe, abangani kanye nezitha ngokufanayo, okungenani kunakho konke lapho abaholi bayo bekholelwa ukuthi ukuzivocavoca kwezempi yase-US nezikhali zenuzi kuyingozi. Ngakho-ke, ngokubikezela, i-Pyongyang iphatha unswinyo lwamazwe ngamazwe, okuhloswe ukuyijezisa, njenge izikhuthazo ukuphokophela phambili ngokuthuthukiswa kanye nokukhiqizwa kwezikhali ezintsha zokuvinjelwa. Kungase kube yindaba yesikhathi ngaphambi kokuba umcibisholo waseNyakatho Korea ukwazi ukufinyelela ezweni lase-US, kodwa uKim Jong-un, njengoyise kanye nomkhulu wakhe, uhlala ekhumbula ukuthi iNorth Korea izungezwe amandla amakhulu amakhulu. yase-US kanye nabalingani bayo baseSouth Korea naseJapan. I-DPRK iphinde ibhekane nomongameli wase-US owake wathi akuqedwe izikhali zenuzi kodwa manje uyengamela phezu kokuthuthukiswa kwabo okubalulekile, ngokuncintisana neRussia neChina. Lokho kuthuthukiswa kufaka phakathi ukwenziwa kwe-miniaturization, okuthi ukusuka kwelinye icala—okungenzeka ukuthi amasosha aseNyakatho Korea inakwe—okwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwesikhali senuzi empini. Umsebenzi osobala waseNyakatho Korea wokwenza i-miniaturization kungenzeka ungabi nengozi.

Ithuba elingcono kakhulu neliwukuphela kwalo lokuyekisa uKim Jong-un ukuthi aqhubeke nendlela yesimanje yezikhali, eyingozi futhi elimazayo ngokwentuthuko yabantu, ukubeka phambi kwakhe iphakethe lezinye izikhuthazo—isivumelwano sokuthula sokuqeda iKorea. Impi, iziqinisekiso zokuphepha, izinketho zamandla azinzile, nosizo lwezomnotho oluphusile. Isinyathelo esihlanganyelwe sase-US-China, phakathi kwezingxoxo ezivuselelwe zamaqembu ayisithupha, sihlanganise iphakethe elinjalo kungaba intuthuko eyamukelekayo ngempela, njengokuthuthukisa ubudlelwano bamazwe amabili kanye nokuncipha kwezingxabano ne-DPRK. Isinyathelo sesikhashana bekungaba ukwamukela kweWashington isiphakamiso esibekwe ngungqongqoshe wezangaphandle wase-DPRK u-Ri Su-yong, owatshela i-Associated Press ngo-Ephreli 23 ukuthi uma i-US "imisa izivivinyo zempi yenuzi enhlonhlweni yaseKorea, kufanele futhi siyeke. izivivinyo zethu zenuzi.” (UMongameli Obama uwunqabile lo mbono.) Nami ngiwunqabile veza umqondo wokudala i-Northeast Asia Security Dialogue Mechanism. I-ajenda yayo ekugcineni izobandakanya ukuchithwa kwenyukliya kwamazwe amaningi, kodwa izoqala ngengxoxo yezinye izihloko ezihlobene nokuphepha okungenzeka kube lula ukuthola okuvumelana ngazo, inhloso kuwukwakha ukwethembana.

Ngakho-ke, lokho okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “indaba yenuzi yaseNyakatho Korea” kungaphezu kwalokho. Umnyombo walolu daba ukuthula nokuvikeleka eNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia, okubandakanya inqwaba yezinkinga ezixhumene: ukungathembani kwamasu phakathi kwe-US neChina, izingxabano zendawo, ukwanda kwezindleko zezempi kanye nezivumelwano zokusekela, izinkinga zemvelo eziwela umngcele, nezikhali zenuzi eziphethwe amazwe amane namuhla futhi ngokunokwenzeka amabili ngaphezulu (iJapane neNingizimu Korea) kusasa. Abenzi bezinqumo eWashington, nakuba bekhungethwe yizinkinga eMpumalanga Ephakathi, badinga ukunaka inhlonhlo yaseKorea futhi bacabange ngaphandle kwebhokisi.

UMel Gurtov, ogunyazwe ngu PeaceVoice, unguProfesa Emeritus Wesayensi Yezombangazwe e-Portland State University kanye namabhulogi at In Interesting Abantu.