Ibhalwe nguRichard E. Rubenstein, Dlulisa Insizakalo Yezindaba, Ngo-September 5, i-2022
Ukuqala kwempi yaseRussia-Ukraine ngoFebhuwari 2022 kwadlala inguquko esivele iqhubeka enkathini entsha neyingozi kakhulu yezingxabano zomhlaba. Impi ngokwayo yayiyindaba yaseNtshonalanga, enentshisekelo enkulu kumaqembu aseduze kanye nabahlinzeki base-Ukrainian baseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika. Kepha kuqubuke esimweni sobudlelwano obuwohloka ngokushesha phakathi kwe-United States, eqhubeka nokubanga amandla omhlaba, kanye nezitha zayo zangaphambili zeMpi Yomshoshaphansi, iRussia neChina. Ngenxa yalokho, ukungqubuzana kwesifunda okungenzeka ukuthi kuxazululwe ngokuxoxisana okujwayelekile noma izingxoxo zokuxazulula izinkinga phakathi kwezinhlangothi eziseduze kwaba okungenakuxazululeka, ngaphandle kwezixazululo ezisheshayo.
Okwesikhashana, okungenani, umzabalazo phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine uqinise ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-United States ne-Europe, ngenkathi uqinisa indima enkulu ye-US kulobo “bambiswano”. Ngenkathi amaqembu kulokho abanye abakubiza ngokuthi “iMpi Yomshoshaphansi entsha” andise ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwezempi kanye nentshiseko yemibono, abanye ababefuna isikhundla saMandla Amakhulu njengeTurkey, India, Iran, kanye neJapan baphishekela izinzuzo zesikhashana. Ngaleso sikhathi, impi yase-Ukraine yaqala ukuthatha isimo "sengxabano eqandisiwe," lapho iRussia iphumelela ukuthatha ingxenye enkulu yesifunda saseDonbas esikhuluma isiRashiya, kuyilapho i-US ithululela izigidigidi zamaRandi ngezikhali zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, ubuhlakani kanye nokuqeqeshwa. endaweni yokugcina izikhali yombuso waseKiev.
Njengoba kuvame ukwenzeka, ukuvela kwamaphethini amasha okungqubuzana kwamangaza abahlaziyi, izisetshenziswa zabo zethiyori ziklanyelwe ukuchaza izinhlobo zangaphambili zomzabalazo. Ngenxa yalokho, isimo esishintshile asizange siqondwe kahle futhi imizamo yokuxazulula izingxabano yayingekho nhlobo. Ngokuphathelene nempi yase-Ukraine, isibonelo, ukuhlakanipha okuvamile kwakuwukuthi "isimo esilimazayo," kungekho qembu elikwazi ukunqoba ngokuphelele kodwa uhlangothi ngalunye luhlupheka kakhulu, lungenza lolu hlobo lwengxabano "lulungele ukuxazululwa" ngokusebenzisa. ukuxoxisana. (bona I. William Zartman, Amasu Okukhuthaza Ukuvuthwa). Kodwa kwakukhona izinkinga ezimbili ngalokhu kwakhiwa:
- Izinhlobo ezintsha zempi elinganiselwe ezibonisa ukusetshenziswa okulinganiselwe kwezikhali zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, kuyilapho kubulala noma kulimaza izinkulungwane futhi kubangela umonakalo omkhulu empahleni kanye nemvelo, zisanciphisa inani lokuhlupheka obekungalindeleka ngenye indlela empini phakathi komakhelwane. Ngenkathi isifunda saseDonbas siqhuma, abathengi badla eKiev. Ngenkathi izingozi zaseRussia zanda futhi amazwe aseNtshonalanga afaka unswinyo kumbuso kaPutin, izakhamuzi ze-RFSR zajabulela ukuphila okunokuthula nokuchuma.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokuphambene nenkulumo-ze yaseNtshonalanga, ngaphandle kwezinto ezimbalwa ezidabukisayo iRussia ayizange ihlasele ngokungakhethi okukhulu kubantu base-Ukraine, futhi abase-Ukraine abazange baqalise ukuhlasela okuningi ezindaweni ezihlosiwe ngaphandle kweDonbas. Lokhu kuzibamba okuhlobene nhlangothi zombili (ukungabukeli phansi ukwesabeka okubangelwa izinkulungwane zokufa okungadingekile) kubonakala kunciphise “ukulimala” okukhulu okudingekayo ukuze kukhiqizwe “isimo esilimazayo.” Le nhlangano ebheke kulokho okungase kubizwe ngokuthi “impi eyingxenye” ingabonakala njengesici soguquko lwezempi olwaqala e-US ngemva kweMpi YaseVietnam ngokushintshwa kwamasosha abuthiwe “ngamavolontiya” kanye nokushintshwa kwamasosha angaphansi ngobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. umoya, izikhali, nezikhali zasolwandle. Okuxakayo ukuthi, ukunciphisa ukuhlupheka okungabekezeleleki okubangelwa impi kuye kwavula umnyango wezimpi ezingaphelele njengesici esibekezeleleka, esingase sibe unomphela senqubomgomo yangaphandle Yamandla Amakhulu.
- Umzabalazo wendawo e-Ukraine wahlangana nokuvuselelwa kwezingxabano zombuso emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi lapho i-United States inquma ukwamukela imbangela ephikisana neRussia futhi ithele izigidigidi zamadola ezikhali ezithuthukisiwe nezobunhloli esikhwameni sombuso waseKiev. Isizathu esishiwo salo mshophi, ngokwezikhulu eziphezulu zombuso we-Biden, bekuwukwenza "buthaka" iRussia njengembangi yomhlaba wonke futhi ixwayise iChina ukuthi i-US izomelana nanoma yikuphi umnyakazo wamaShayina ngokumelene neTaiwan noma ezinye izinhloso zase-Asia ezithatha njengobudlova. Umphumela wako kwaba ukuqunga isibindi umholi wase-Ukraine, uZelensky, ukuba amemezele ukuthi isizwe sakhe ngeke siyekethise neRussia ezindabeni eziyingxabano (ngisho nasodabeni lwaseCrimea), nokuthi umgomo wesizwe sakhe “kwakuwukunqoba.” Umuntu akazi, vele, lapho umholi oshumayela ukunqoba nganoma iyiphi intengo uyonquma ukuthi isizwe sakhe sikhokhe ngokwanele nokuthi sekuyisikhathi sokukhuluma ngokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa nokwandisa izinzuzo. Noma kunjalo, kulokhu kubhala, uMnu. Putin noma uMnu Zelensky akekho ozimisele ukusho izwi mayelana nokuqeda le ngxabano ebonakala ingapheli.
Lokhu kushoda kwesibili okucatshangelwayo kuye kwabonakala kubiza kakhulu ekudaleni ukuthula kunokungaqondi kahle izimpi ezingaphelele. Ngenkathi abameli be-Western hegemony bethola izindlela zokuthethelela ukwesekwa kwezempi kwe-US kanye ne-Europe "yentando yeningi" ngokumelene "nokuzimela" kanye nemibono yaseRussia efana no-Alexander Dugin iphupho le-Great Russia evuselelwe, izazi eziningi zokuthula nezingxabano zihlala zizinikele ekuhlaziyeni ubunikazi- iqembu lizabalaza njengendlela yokuqonda kokubili ukungqubuzana komhlaba kanye nokuhlukaniswa kwangaphakathi. Ezinye izazi zokuthula zithole imithombo emisha ebalulekile yokungqubuzana njengokucekelwa phansi kwemvelo, izinkinga zezokwelapha emhlabeni wonke, nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, kodwa abaningi bayaqhubeka nokungayinaki inkinga yombuso kanye nokuvela kwezingxabano ezintsha phakathi kwama-hegemons. (Okuhlukile kulokhu kungaboni ngaso linye ngumsebenzi ka-Johan Galtung, incwadi yakhe yango-2009, ethi, Ukuwa Kombuso WaseMelika - Bese Kuyini? I-TRANSEND University Press, manje ibonakala iyisiprofetho.)
Lokhu kunganakwa okujwayelekile kwe-imperialism kanye nokuguquguquka kwayo kunezizathu ezigxile emlandweni womkhakha wezifundo zokungqubuzana, kodwa ubukhulu bayo bezepolitiki kufanele bubonakale uma sithemba ukunqoba ubuthakathaka obusobala bezinhlangano zokuthula lapho sibhekene nezingxabano ezifana neRussia vs. Ukraine. kanye ne-NATO noma i-US namadlelandawonye ayo ngokumelene ne-China. Ikakhulukazi emazweni aseNtshonalanga, ukuhlukana kwamanje kwezombusazwe kuvame ukukhiqiza ukuthambekela okubili okukhulu: i-populism ephiko lwesokudla okuzibophezele kwayo ngokombono i-ethno-nationalist kanye ne-isolationist, kanye ne-centrism encike kwesokunxele emibono yayo i-cosmopolitan kanye ne-globalism. Akukho ukuthambekela okuqondayo amaphethini avelayo ezingxabano zomhlaba noma onentshisekelo yangempela ekudaleni izimo zokuthula emhlabeni. I-Right ikhuthaza ukugwema izimpi ezingadingekile, kodwa ubuzwe bayo buphakamisa ukuzihlukanisa; ngakho-ke, abaholi bophiko lwesokudla bashumayela ukulungela okukhulu kwezempi futhi bamele "ukuzivikela" ezitheni zesizwe zendabuko. Kwesokunxele ngama-impiriyali ngokuqaphela noma ngokungazi, umbono ewuveza kusetshenziswa ulimi “lobuholi” kanye “nomthwalo wemfanelo” kanye nangaphansi kwamarubrikhi “wokuthula ngamandla” kanye “nomthwalo wemfanelo wokuvikela.”
Iningi labasekeli beDemocratic Party e-US liyehluleka ukuqaphela ukuthi i-Biden Administration yamanje ingumkhulumeli ononya wezithakazelo zombuso waseMelika futhi isekela amalungiselelo empi aqondiswe eChina naseRussia; noma bayakuqonda lokhu, kodwa bakubheke njengendaba encane uma kuqhathaniswa nosongo lwe-neo-fascism yasekhaya a la Donald Trump. Ngokufanayo, abalandeli abaningi bamaqembu angakwesokunxele nangakwesokunxele e-Europe bayehluleka ukuqonda ukuthi i-NATO okwamanje iyigatsha lomshini wezempi wase-US futhi okungenzeka kube ukusungulwa kwezempi nezimboni zombuso omusha waseYurophu. Noma bayakusola lokhu kodwa babheke ukukhuphuka nokwanda kwe-NATO ngamalensi enzondo nokusola kwabantu baseRussia kanye nokwesaba ukunyakaza kwabantu abalungile njengalokho kukaViktor Orban kanye noMarine Le Pen. Kunoma ikuphi, umphumela uba ukuthi abameli bokuthula kwembulunga yonke bavame ukuhlukaniswa nezifunda zasekhaya abangase bahlanganyele nazo.
Lokhu kuhlukaniswa kuye kwaphawuleka ikakhulukazi endabeni yokunyakaza kokuthula ngezingxoxo e-Ukraine, okungakatholi noma yikuphi ukudonsa kwangempela kunoma yisiphi isizwe saseNtshonalanga. Ngempela, abagqugquzeli abaqine kakhulu bezingxoxo zokuthula ngokushesha, ngaphandle kwezikhulu zeNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene, bavame ukuba yizibalo ezihlotshaniswa nezizwe zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi nase-Asia njengeTurkey, India, neChina. Ngokombono waseNtshonalanga, umbuzo okhathaza kakhulu futhi odinga impendulo kakhulu owokuthi ungakunqoba kanjani ukuhlukaniswa kwezinhlangano zokuthula.
Izimpendulo ezimbili ziyaziphakamisa, kodwa ngayinye ikhiqiza izinkinga ezidala isidingo sengxoxo eyengeziwe:
Impendulo yokuqala: sungula umfelandawonye phakathi kwabakhulumeli bokuthula bephiko lesokunxele. Ama-liberals aphikisana nempi kanye nama-socialists angahlangana ne-conservative isolationists kanye nama-libertarians ukudala umfelandawonye weqembu eliphikisana nezimpi zangaphandle. Eqinisweni, lolu hlobo lomfelandawonye kwesinye isikhathi luba khona ngokuzenzakalelayo, njengase-United States phakathi nenkathi elandela ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq ngo-2003. Ubunzima, vele, ukuthi yilokhu kanye ama-Marxists akubiza ngokuthi “ingquza ebolile” - inhlangano yezombangazwe okuthi, ngenxa yokuthi ithola imbangela evamile endabeni eyodwa kuphela, nakanjani izohlukana phakathi lapho ezinye izindaba sezigqama. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma umsebenzi wokulwa nempi usho ukusiphula izimbangela yempi kanye nokumelana nokugqugquzelwa kwezempi kwamanje, izakhi “zeqembu elibolile” cishe ngeke zivumelane ngokuthi zingahlonzwa futhi zisuswe kanjani lezo zimbangela.
Impendulo yesibili: guqula iqembu le-left-liberal libe nombono wokumela ukuthula okuphambene ne-imperial, noma lihlukanise okusele libe yizifunda ezimele impi kanye nezokulwa nempi futhi lisebenzele ukuvikela ubukhulu bamuva. Isithiyo sokwenza lokhu akukhona nje ukwesaba okujwayelekile kokuthathwa kwelungelo lokudla okuphawulwe ngenhla kodwa ubuthakathaka bekamu lokuthula. Ngaphakathi isimo sophiko lwesokunxele. E-US, iningi "eliqhubekayo" (kuhlanganise neDemocratic Socialists abazigcobile) baye bathula ngokumangazayo ngempi yase-Ukraine, noma ngenxa yokwesaba ukuzihlukanisa ezindabeni zasekhaya noma ngenxa yokuthi bamukela izizathu ezivamile zempi ephikisana "nobudlova baseRussia. .” Lokhu kuphakamisa isidingo sokuhlukana nabakhi bombuso kanye nokwakha izinhlangano ezimelene nonxiwankulu ezizibophezele ekuqedeni i-imperialism kanye nokwenza ukuthula emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu is isixazululo senkinga, okungenani ngombono, kodwa ukuthi abantu bangaqoqwa ngamanani amakhulu ngokwanele ukuze bawenze phakathi nenkathi "yempi eyingxenye" kuyangabazeka.
Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuxhumana phakathi kwezinhlobo ezimbili ezikhulayo zengxabano enodlame okukhulunywe ngayo ngaphambili. Izimpi ezingaphelele zalolu hlobo oluliwa e-Ukraine zinganqamula imizabalazo yamazwe afana naleyo phakathi komfelandawonye wase-US/Europe kanye neRussia. Uma lokhu kwenzeka kuba yizingxabano “eziqinile”, nokho, ezinamandla okudlondlobala kakhulu - okungukuthi, ukuya empini ephelele - uma uhlangothi olulodwa lubhekene nokunqotshwa okuyinhlekelele, noma uma ukungqubuzana phakathi kombuso kushuba kakhulu. Ukungqubuzana phakathi kwamakhosi ngokwawo kungacatshangelwa njengokuvuselelwa kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi elawulekayo, ngokwezinga elithile, ngezinqubo zokuvimbana ezakhiwe ngesikhathi sangaphambili, noma njengohlobo olusha lomzabalazo oludala ubungozi obusha, okuhlanganisa nokukhulu kakhulu. ingozi yokuthi izikhali zenuzi (eziqala ngezikhali ezikhiqiza kancane) zizosetshenziswa amaqembu amakhulu noma abalingani bazo. Owami umbono, ozokwethulwa esihlokweni esilandelayo, ukuthi umele uhlobo olusha lomzabalazo olwandisa kakhulu ubungozi bempi yenuzi engapheli.
Isiphetho esisheshayo umuntu angase asithole kulokhu ukuthi kunesidingo esiphuthumayo sokuthi izazi zokuthula zibone izinhlobo ezisafufusa zokungqubuzana komhlaba wonke, zihlaziye amandla amasha okungqubuzana, futhi zithole iziphetho ezingokoqobo kulokhu kuhlaziya. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izishoshovu zokuthula zidinga ngokuphuthumayo ukuhlonza izimbangela zobuthakathaka babo bamanje kanye nokuzihlukanisa futhi zenze izindlela zokwandisa ithonya labo kakhulu phakathi kwamalungu omphakathi kanye nabathatha izinqumo abafinyeleleka. Kule mizamo izingxoxo nezenzo zamazwe ngamazwe zizoba semqoka kakhulu, njengoba umhlaba uwonke ekugcineni, futhi ngokufanelekile, uyaphuma ekulawuleni amazwe aseNtshonalanga.
