Fnoma cishe a Ikhulu leminyaka manje, ohulumeni kanye namabutho abo empi baye bacela usizo ososayensi nabanjiniyela ukuba bakhe izikhali, bahlele ukuzivikela, futhi bacebise ngokusetshenziswa nokuthunyelwa kwabo.
Ibukwa yi-MIT
Ngeshwa, izinto zangempela zesayensi nezobuchwepheshe azihambisani njalo nezinqubomgomo ezikhethwayo zezombusazwe kanye nezikhulu. Emuva kuma-1950, ezinye izikhulu zase-US zazithanda ukumemezela ukuthi ososayensi kufanele babe "emathinini, hhayi phezulu": ngamanye amazwi, balungele ukunikeza izeluleko ezisebenzayo uma kudingeka, kodwa hhayi ukunikeza iseluleko esiphikisana nomugqa osemthethweni. Leso simo sengqondo siye saqhubeka sibe khona okwamanje, kodwa ososayensi baye benqaba ngokuqinile ukudlala.
Omunye wabaholi abahlonishwa kakhulu kulokhu ukuphikiswa nguTheodore "Ted" Postol, uprofesa ophumayo wesayensi, ubuchwepheshe, kanye nenqubomgomo yokuphepha kazwelonke eMIT. Uqeqeshwe njengomchwepheshe we-physicist kanye nenjini yenuzi, uPotol useqedile umsebenzi wokuzibandakanya emininingwaneni yezobuchwepheshe bezempi nokuzivikela. Wasebenzela iCongress eHhovisi le-Technology of Assessment manje, manje ePentagon njengomeluleki kuMqondisi wezokuSebenza ngaphambi kokujoyina i-academia, kuqala eStanford University bese ebuyela e-alma mater yakhe, i-MIT.
Kuzo zonke, uye waba ngumgxekayo ongakhulumi imibono engaqondakaliyo, imibono engavumeleki, nokucabanga okungenakuphumelela kwezobuchwepheshe, kuhlanganise nohlelo lukaRonald Reagan lwe "Star Wars", uhlelo oluxoshiwe lwePatriot War of the Gulf First War, kanye nemicabango yamuva yokuzivikela ye-intercontinental ballistic missile evivinywa yi-US Ukuphenya kwakhe nokuhlaziya kuye kwaveza ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuzikhohlisa, ukuphazamisa kabi, ucwaningo oluphuthumayo, nokukhwabanisa okuqondile ePatagon, laboratories ezifundiswayo nezizimele, neCongress.
Lapho sithintana naye, sathola ukuthi, ngaphandle kokuthatha umhlalaphansi eneminyaka engu-70, wayelungiselela ukuya eJalimane ukuyobonisana noMnyango Wezangaphandle WaseJalimane ngobudlelwano be-European-Russian. Umsebenzi wakhe ubonisa ubufakazi obuqotho bokuthi uma kukhona okuzwakala kuhle kakhulu ukuba yiqiniso, ngokuvamile kuvamile. Esikhathini esilandelayo ngezansi, izimpendulo zakhe zihlelwe ubude nokucaca.
Undark - I-US ibilokhu izama ukuvikela uhlobo oluthile lwemicibisholo ye-ballistic kusukela ku-Sputnik ku-1957. Njengomgxeka lo mqondo, ungachaza ukuthi kungani ukuzivikela okuphumelelayo imicibisholo engenayo akuyona ngempela ezobuchwepheshe?
Ted Postol - Endabeni yokuzivikela kwe-missile uhlobo lwe-United States eyakhayo, zonke izinto ezizobonakala ngabathinteli zizovela njengamaphuzu okukhanya. Ngaphandle kokuthi umkhiphi abe nolwazi lwangaphambili, njengamanye amaphuzu wokukhanya abe nokukhanya okuchazwe kahle okuhlobene nabanye, akanalo neze indlela yokunquma ukuthi ubheke ngani futhi ngenxa yalokho, yini okufanele ufike kuyo.
Ukungaqondi kahle okuvamile ukuthi, kwakuyizinyathelo ezinjalo zokuphumelela, izimpi kanye nokuhlaselwa kufanele kubonakale ngokufanayo. Konke okudingekayo ukuthi zonke izinto zibukeka zihlukile nokuthi akukho nolwazi lwalokho okufanele ulindele. Ngenxa yalokho, isitha singashintsha ukuma kwe-warhead (isibonelo ngokufaka uphawu lokushaya ibhaluni elikuzungezile) futhi uguqule ngokuphelele ukubukeka kwayo kwisejista elide. Uma isitha sikwazi ukwakha i-ICBM kanye nempi yamandla enyukliya, isitha sinekhono lobuchwepheshe ekwakheni nasekutheni amabhaluni, kanye nokwenza izinto ezilula ukuguqula ukubukeka kwempi. Ubuchwepheshe bokusebenzisa izinyathelo ezinjalo ezilula kakhulu ngenkathi ubuchwepheshe buwunqobe ngokuyisisekelo abukho - akekho isayensi engasetshenziswa yizinjini ezizovumela ukuzivikela ukucacisa lokho okubonayo.
Ngakho ukuphikisa kwami ekuvikelweni okuphezulu okuphezulu kwe-missile okusetshenziswe yi-United States kulula kakhulu - abanalo ithuba lokusebenza ngokumelene nanoma yisiphi isitha esinokuqonda okuncane okukwenzayo.
UD - Yini isimo samanje se-NATO yaseshashalazini? U-Obama ukhansele uhlelo olulodwa oluqalwe nguMongameli uGeorge W. Bush, kodwa ucabanga ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kusetshenziswe ngamandla ngokuphatha okusha eWashington?
TP - Isivikelo samanje se-NATO yaseshashalazini sempi esaphila futhi siyaphila. Lokhu kuvikelwa kwe-missile kwakhelwe eduze kwe-surface-to-air-missile eyaziwa ngokuthi yi- I-Standard Missile-3 (SM-3). Umqondo wangempela wawuwukuba uqalise abantu abathintekayo Aegis cruisers futhi basebenzisa ama-ragars Aegis ukuthola izinqwaba nempi futhi ukuqondisa abathintekayo. Kodwa-ke, kuvela ukuthi ama-radar Aegis akakwazanga ukubona futhi alandele imigomo ye-missile ye-ballistic ngesikhathi eside ngokwanele ukuvumela isikhathi sokuba umenzi we-interceptor ahambe futhi ahlanganyele umgomo.
Umbuzo omuhle okumele ubuze ukuthi kungenzeka kanjani ukuthi i-US ingakhethiwe ukuthuthukisa nokwethula uhlelo olunjalo futhi engaziwa ukuthi lokhu kwakuyilokho. Enye incazelo ukuthi ukukhethwa kokuzivikela kwemishini kwakunqunywe yizingqinamba zezombangazwe futhi ngenxa yalokho, akekho ohilelekile ekwenzeni izinqumo enze noma yikuphi ukuhlaziywa, noma kunakekelwa ukunquma ukuthi ngabe lo mqondo wenza noma cha. Uma uthola ukuthi lokhu kuyisabeka, ngiyavuma ngokuphelele.
Inkinga yezombangazwe ne-Aegis-base-missile defense defense ukuthi inani labantu abazokwazi ukuthunyelwa yi-United States liyokhula kakhulu nge-2030 kuya ku-2040. Kungase kuqondiswe ngaphesheya kwezwekazikazi lase-United States futhi kwenziwe izimpendulo zempi engenayo elandelwe ama-radar okuxwayisa okuqala ase-US.
Lokhu kubonakala sengathi i-United States ingakwazi ukuvikela izwekazi lase-United States ngokumelene nempi eminingi yamaShayina noma yaseRashiya. Kuyisivimbela esiyisisekelo ekunciphiseni kwezingalo esikhathini esizayo ngoba abaseRussia abazimisele ukunciphisa ubukhulu bempi yabo emazingeni lapho kungase kube khona isikhathi esithile bangene ezinombolweni eziningi ze-interceptors yase-US e-antimissile.
Okuyiqiniso ukuthi uhlelo lokuzivikela luyoba nolwazi oluncane noma olungenalo. Ama-radars okuxwayisa okuqala ayinalo ikhono lokubandlulula phakathi kwempi kanye nokuhlukumeza (lawa ma-radar ayingxenye ephansi kakhulu) kanti abaxhasi be-SM-3 ngeke bakwazi ukwazi ukuthi yiziphi izinhloso eziningi ezingase zihlangane nazo. Noma kunjalo, ukubonakala ukuthi i-United States izama ukukwazi ukuzivikela ngamakhulu abantu abayithintekayo kuyophakamisa izithiyo ezijulile nezinkinga kakhulu emisebenzini yesikhathi esizayo ekunciphiseni izikhali.
I-United States inekhono elikhulu lokubhubhisa izingxenye ezinkulu zamabutho aseRashiya esiteshini sokuqala. Yize isenzo esinjalo besizozibulala, abahleli bezempi bobabili (abakwaRussia nabamaMelika) baye bathatha lokhu okungaba yiqiniso ngempela phakathi neminyaka engamashumi eminyaka ye-Cold War. Kuyacaca kakhulu ezitatimendeni ezenziwa nguVladimir Putin ukuthi akafuni ukungaba ukuthi i-United States izama ukuvimbela iRussia ngezigameko zenuzi. Ngakho-ke, yize noma yikuphi uhlangothi kunalolu phiko lwangempela lokuphunyuka inhlekelele ekhona uma izikhali zisetshenziswa ngale ndlela, kungenzeka ukuthi kuthathwa ngokungathí sina futhi kuthonya ukuziphatha kwezombusazwe.
UD - Ngo 1995, i-rocket yocwaningo yaseNorway cishe kwaqala iMpi Yezwe III ngenkathi ekuqaleni eRussia becabanga ukuthi kuhlasela kwe-US. Ukuhlaziywa kwakho kubonise ukuthi lesi sigameko sibonakalise kanjani amaphutha emiphakathini yezixwayiso zaseRussia kanye nezokuvikela. Ingabe kube khona ukuthuthukiswa kwamakhono okuxwayisa okuqala eRussia?
TP - AmaRussia abandakanyeka emzamweni owenziwe kakhulu kakhulu wokwakha isimiso esilungele ukuxwayisa ekuqaleni kokuhlasela okumangalisayo kwe-US. Isistimu abayakhayo isekelwe ekusetshenzisweni kwama-radar asekelwe emhlabathini yemiklamo ehlukene enezici zokusesha eziqhamukayo nobuchwepheshe obuhlukile bokubunjiniyela. Kusobala ukuthi lokhu kuyingxenye yecebo lokunciphisa amathuba okungaqondakali kwemodi evamile ngenkathi uzama ukuhlinzeka ngokukhululeka okukhulu ukuqinisekisa isixwayiso sokuhlaselwa.
Kuphela nje, phakathi nonyaka odlule, abaseRussia bafinyelele ekugcineni ukutholakala kwe-360-degree nge-ballistic missile nuclear attack. Uma umuntu ebuka izincwadi zabo ezinkambisweni zokuxwayisa zakudala, kucacile kakhulu ezitatimendeni zabo ukuthi lokhu kube umgomo abazama ukuwufeza amashumi eminyaka - kusukela esikhathini soSoviet Union.
AmaRussia nawo abonakala esebenzisa iklasi elisha lama-radars angaphezu kwamanye ama-radar abonakala kimi angahlangene nokuzivikela kwe-air, njengoba kuchaziwe ezincwadini zaseRussia. Uma umuntu ebheka indawo kanye nezici zalawa ma-radars angaphezu kwezwe, kucacile ukuthi zihlose ukunikeza isixwayiso sokuhlasela kwe-missile e-North Atlantic naseGulf of Alaska.
Inkinga ukuthi lezi radars zilula kakhulu ukujamanisa futhi ngeke zithembeke ekuthembekeni kakhulu endaweni enonya. Zonke izinkomba namuhla zibonisa ngokungabonakali ukuthi amaRussia namanje akanalo ubuchwepheshe ukwakha isimiso sokuxwayisa sokuqala se-infrared isikhala somhlaba jikelele. Banekhono elilinganiselwe ukwakha izinhlelo ezibukeka ezindaweni ezincane kakhulu zomhlaba, kodwa akukho lutho oluseduze nokufaka umhlaba jikelele.
UD - Yiziphi izingozi ukuthi amandla amancane enyukliya anamandla okunciphisa amandla aseNorth Korea angakwazi ukuvimbela ukuxhumana kwe-satellite emhlabeni nge-electromagnetic pulse nuclear detonation, ngisho nangaphezu kwendawo yabo? Ingabe kukhona ukuvikela ngokuhlasela okunjalo?
TP - Umonakalo omkhulu ungenziwa kuma satellite aphansi-phezulu, amanye ngokushesha kanye nabanye ngezikhathi ezizayo. Kodwa-ke, ukuqhuma okukodwa kokukhiqiza kwezikhali zenuzi ngeke kubhubhise konke ukuxhumana.
Isinqumo sami somuntu siqu ukuthi ingozi enkulu eNorth Korea yukuthi bangakhubeka ekubhekaneni nenyakatho neWest. Ubuholi baseNyakatho yaseKorea abuyena ubuqili. Kunalokho ubuholi obakholelwa ukuthi kufanele bubukeke bungenakulinganiswa futhi buhlukumeze ukuze kugcinwe iNingizimu Korea ne-United States ukuthi ingabhalansi njengengxenye yesu eliphelele lokugwema isenzo sezempi eNingizimu ne-US
Ngenxa yalokho, abaseNyakatho Korea benza ngenhloso ukwenza izinto ezidala ukubonakala kokunganaki - okuyinto empeleni isu lokungacabangi ngokwayo. Ingozi enkulu kunazo zonke ukuthi bayodlula ngokungahambisani nomugqa bese bevimbela impendulo yempi evela eNtshonalanga noma eNingizimu. Uma lokhu kungahambi muntu kungakwazi ukuthi uzophela kuphi nokuthi uzophela kanjani. Mhlawumbe nje umphumela othize wukuthi iNorth Korea izobhujiswa futhi iphele ukuhlala njengesizwe. Kodwa-ke, akekho ongakwazi ukubikezela ukuthi izikhali zenuzi ngeke zisetshenziswe, futhi ukusabela kweChina ukuba namabutho ase-US naseNingizimu Korea ngqo emingceleni yawo ingaba nemiphumela engalindelekile.
Ngakho iNorth Korea isimo esiyingozi kakhulu.
UD - Abantu abaningi, kuhlanganise namalungu adumile asezindaweni zokuzivikela ezifana noHenry Kissinger, uWilliam Perry noSam Nunn, bafuna ukuqothula ngokuphelele izikhali zenuzi eMhlabeni. Ucabanga ukuthi lokhu kuyinjongo enengqondo futhi efinyelelekayo?
TP - Ngingumsekeli onomdlandla we "mbono" wezwe ngaphandle kwezikhali zenuzi.
Ngicabanga ukuthi kuyoba nzima kakhulu ukuba nezwe elingenakho izikhali zenuzi ngaphandle kokuba isimo sezombusazwe sezwe sonke sishintshwe ngokuphelele kulokho okukhona namhlanje. Kodwa-ke, lokhu akusona ukugxekwa kwezinhloso zemiboniso ezibekwe nguShultz, uPerry, uNunn no-Kissinger.
Okwamanje, i-United States neRussia ziziphatha ngezindlela ezibonisa ukuthi akukho nhlangothi elungile ukuthatha izinyathelo kulowo mbono. Umbono wami, ongathandeki kulo mkhakha wezombusazwe wamanje, ukuthi i-United States iyizwe elisesihlalweni somshayeli mayelana nalolu daba.
I-United States isenkonzweni yokwakha ibutho elikhulu lezinto zenuzi elibonakala lihlose ukuba nekhono lokulwa nokunqoba izimpi zenuzi. Ukuthi umqondo wokulwa nokunqoba impi yenuzi uqhakazile ngokuphelele ezintweni ezithinta izikhali zenuzi awuzange umvimbele i-United States ukuba iqhube phambili njengokungathi inhloso enjalo ingenzeka.
Njengoba kunikezwe lokhu kuziphatha, kulindeleke ukuthi abaseRussia babesaba ukufa, nokuthi amaShayina nawo abe eseduze kwabo. Ngikholelwa ukuthi isimo siyingozi kakhulu futhi empeleni sithola okuningi.
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UMark Wolverton, owaziwa nge-2016-17 Knight Science Journalism Fellow eMIT, ungumbhali wesayensi, umbhali, nombhali wemidlalo yokudlala ondatshana zakhe ezivele kuWired, Scientific American, Popular Science, Air & Space Smithsonian, naseMelika Heritage, phakathi kwezinye izincwadi. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva uthi "A Life in Twilight: The Final Years of J. Robert Oppenheimer."
I-Undark ingumagazini ongeyena inzuzo, ohleliwe wedijithali ozimele ohlola ukuhlangana kwesayensi nomphakathi. Ishicilelwa ngezimali ezivulekile ezivela kuJohn S. and James L. Knight Foundation, ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lwayo lwe-Knight Science Journalism Fellowship Programme eCambridge, eMassachusetts.
