Izinkinga Ezisuka Kwelinye Nempi Yezwe LaseSyria Okhiqizwe Ngokuncintisana Amaphayiphu Egesi

MINNEAPOLIS — Izithombe ze Aylan Kurdi, umfana waseSyria oneminyaka emithathu owageza washona ogwini lwaseMedithera emzamweni womndeni wakhe wokubalekela eSyria ekhungethwe yimpi, usedonse ukunaka kwabantu emhlabeni wonke, kwaqubula intukuthelo ngezindleko zangempela zempi.

Inkinga yababaleki edabukisayo eyembuleka ngaphesheya kweMpumalanga Ephakathi nasemingceleni yaseYurophu ivuse ingxoxo edingeka kakhulu mayelana nezingxabano eziqhubekayo nokungazinzi okuxosha abantu emakhaya abo emazweni afana neSyria, iLibya ne-Iraq. Kuletha ukunakwa kwamazwe ngamazwe ekuphathweni ngonya laba ababaleki uma - futhi "uma" okukhulu - befika emnyango waseYurophu.

ESyria, ngokwesibonelo, amazwe angaphandle acwile esizweni esixukwini esibi sempi yombango, ukuhlasela kwamanye amazwe kanye nobuphekula. Abantu baseSyria basesimweni esingenakwenzeka sokukhetha phakathi kokuhlala endaweni yezempi, baqondiswe amaqembu afana ne-ISIS kanye nokuqothulwa okunonya kukahulumeni waseSyria, noma ukuphuza amanzi ayingozi ngemishini yokuphepha encane kuphela ukuze banqatshelwe ukudla, amanzi nokuphepha ohulumeni baseYurophu uma bafike ogwini.

Abanye abantu baseSyria ababalekela isiphithiphithi emakhaya sebephendukele emazweni angomakhelwane abangama-Arab Muslim. IJordani iyodwa iye yamunca ababaleki baseSyria abangaphezu kwengxenye yesigidi; ILebanon yamukele cishe izigidi eziyi-1.5; futhi i-Iraq ne-Egypt bathathe amakhulu amaningana ezinkulungwane.

Nakuba kungesona isizwe sama-Arab noma ingxenye yeMpumalanga Ephakathi, i-Iran yathumela amathani angu-150 ezimpahla zosizo, okuhlanganisa namatende angu-3,000 nezingubo zokulala ezingu-10,000, eRed Crescents yaseJordani, e-Iraq naseLebanon ngokusebenzisa imizila yomhlaba ezosatshalaliswa phakathi kwababaleki baseSyria abahlala khona. emazweni amathathu ngonyaka odlule.

ITurkey isithathe ababaleki abacishe babe yizigidi ezi-2 kuze kube manje. UNdunankulu waseTurkey, u-Recep Erdogan, ube sematheni emhlabeni jikelele ngokuvulela abantu bokufika izingalo, wazibeka njengohlobo lomsindisi kulolu hlelo.

Ngaleso sikhathi, amazwe aseGulf Arab afana neSaudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait kanye ne-United Arab Emirates anikeze isiphephelo kubabaleki baseSyria.

Yize kunengxoxo eyenzeka mayelana nababaleki - ukuthi bangobani, bayaphi, ubani obasizayo, nongekho - okungekho kuyingxoxo yokuthi zingavinjwa kanjani lezi zimpi ukuthi ziqale kwasekuqaleni. Imithombo yezindaba kanye nezinhloko zokukhuluma zezombusazwe bathole amathuba amaningi okukhombana ngeminwe emdlalweni wokusola, kodwa ayikho neyodwa inhlangano yezindaba eye yahlukanisa ngokunembile ukuthi yini eqhuba isiphithiphithi: ukulawula igesi, uwoyela nezinsiza.

Ngempela, kuyafaneleka ukubuza: Kwenzeka kanjani ukuba imibhikisho “yamakhulu” ababhikishi abafuna izinguquko kwezomnotho eSyria eminyakeni emine edlule ibe impi yombango ebulalayo, ebhebhezela amalangabi ontamolukhuni ehlupha umhlaba namuhla futhi idale inkinga yesibili enkulu yababaleki emhlabeni?

Nakuba abezindaba bekhomba ngomunwe kumabhomu kaMongameli waseSyria uBashar Assad nabahlaziyi bezombangazwe bafuna ukuhlasela kwezindiza okwengeziwe ngokumelene ne-ISIS kanye nezijeziso ezinzima ngokumelene neSiriya, sesineminyaka emine sibhekene nenkinga futhi abantu abaningi abazi ukuthi le mpi yaqala kanjani.

Le “mpi yombango” ayiphathelene nenkolo

Ichaza ukuntula ukufinyelela phansi, iZizwe Ezihlangene ziye zayeka ukuvuselela njalo izinombolo zayo zabashonile empini yombango yaseSyria ngoJanuwari 2014. UN

Yize kungabuzwa ukuthi uhulumeni waseSyria nguyena obhekene nabaningi abalimala ngenxa yokuhlasela kwawo ngesihluku, lokhu akuyona nje inkinga yaseSyria.

Ukugxambukela kwamanye amazwe eSyria kwaqala kusukela ekuqaleni kokuvukela umbuso ngoMashi 2011. Kodwa noma ngokusho kwemithombo yezindaba emikhulu njenge I-BBC kanye ne-Associated Press, imibhikisho okuthiwa yakhukhula iSiriya yayinamakhulu kuphela abantu.

Nakuba le mibhikisho yayiyiqiniso kakhulu futhi imele ikhwelo langempela lezinguquko kwezomnotho, inyanga eyodwa kuphela kule mibhikisho ngo-April 2011, I-WikiLeaks ikhiphe ezobunhloli zase-US ukuveza isandla esinzima se-CIA ekuhleleni, ekuxhaseni ngezimali ngisho nasekuhlomiseni lokhu kuvukela.

Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, njengoba kwanda imibhikisho, amaqembu amavukelambuso egcwele iSyria, kanye nokuhlasela okunzima kukahulumeni ezweni lonke, kwaba sobala ukuthi i-United States, i-United Kingdom, iFrance, iQatar, iSaudi Arabia neTurkey izobe igxumagxuma ngaleli thuba. ukuhlela, ukuhlomisa kanye nokuxhasa ngezimali abahlubuki ukuthi bakhe Ibutho Lamahhala LaseSyria. (Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, I-WikiLeaks ukuqinisekisile lokhu ngesikhathi ikhipha ezobunhloli zaseSaudi eziveza ukuthi iTurkey, iQatar kanye neSaudi Arabia bezilokhu zibambene ngezandla zixhasa amavukelambuso ukuze kuketulwe uhulumeni waseSyria kusukela ngo-2012.)

Lezi zizwe zakwamanye amazwe zenze isivumelwano ngo-2012 esibizwa ngokuthi “Iqembu Labangane Babantu BaseSyria,” igama elingenakuba kude neqiniso. I-ajenda yabo bekuwukuhlukanisa nokunqoba ukuze kudaleke umonakalo kulo lonke elaseSyria ngenxa yokuketula uMengameli waseSyria uBashar Assad.

I-ajenda yeqiniso yokugebenga ukuvukela kweSyria yabonakala ngokushesha, izinhloko ezikhulumayo zifaka umfelandawonye weSyria ne-Iran njengosongo ekuvikelekeni nasezintshisakalweni ze-United States namadlelandawonye ayo esifundeni. Akuyona imfihlo ukuthi uhulumeni waseSyria uyizingalo ezinkulu, uwoyela negesi, kanye nezikhali ezisebenzisana ne-Iran kanye neqembu lezepolitiki eliphikisayo laseLebanon iHezbollah.

Kepha kubalulekile ukuqaphela isikhathi: Lo mfelandawonye kanye nokugxambukela eSyria kwenzeka ngokushesha ngemuva kwezingxoxo Ipayipi legesi lase-Iran-Iraq-Syria owawuzokwakhiwa phakathi kuka-2014 no-2016 usuka ensimini yase-Iran eseNingizimu Pars udlule e-Iraq naseSyria. Ngokunwetshwa okungenzeka kweLebanon, ekugcineni izofinyelela e-Europe, imakethe yokuthekelisa okuhlosiwe.

Mhlawumbe incazelo enembe kakhulu yenkinga yamanje mayelana negesi, uwoyela namapayipi ashubile eSyria kuchazwe nguDmitry Minin, sibhalela i-Strategic Cultural Foundation ngoMeyi 2013:

“Kuyashuba impi yokuthi amapayipi azoya e-Europe asuke empumalanga aye entshonalanga, asuke e-Iran nase-Iraq aye ogwini lwaseMedithera eSyria, noma athathe umzila obheke enyakatho osuka eQatar naseSaudi Arabia udlule eSyria naseTurkey. Ngemva kokuqaphela ukuthi ipayipi leNabucco elimisiwe, futhi yonke i-Southern Corridor, isekelwa kuphela yiziqiwu zase-Azerbaijan futhi ayikwazi ukulingana nempahla yaseRussia eYurophu noma ivimbele ukwakhiwa kweSouth Stream, iNtshonalanga iphuthuma ukuyibuyisela ngezinsiza. kusukela ePersian Gulf. I-Syria igcina iyisixhumanisi esibalulekile kulolu chungechunge, futhi incike ekuvuneni i-Iran neRussia; ngaleyo ndlela kwanqunywa ezindlini zaseNtshonalanga ukuthi umbuso wayo udinga ukuguquka.

Ngamafutha, igesi namapayipi, siphukuphuku!

Ngempela, ukungezwani bekukhula phakathi kweRussia, i-US kanye ne-European Union phakathi nokukhathazeka ngokuthi imakethe yegesi yaseYurophu izobanjwa yinkampani yegesi yaseRussia iGazprom. Ipayipi elihlongozwayo legesi lase-Iran-Iraq-Syria lingabalulekile ekuhlukaniseni amandla asetshenziswa yi-Europe kude neRussia.

I-Turkey iyikhasimende lesibili ngobukhulu kwa-Gazprom. Lonke uhlaka lwezokuphepha lwamandla eTurkey luncike kugesi ovela eRussia nase-Iran. Futhi, iTurkey yayifukamele izifiso ezifana ne-Ottoman zokuba yimpambano yezindlela zamasu zokuthunyelwa kwe-Russian, i-Caspian-Central Asian, i-Iraqi ne-Iranian kawoyela kanye negesi imbala eYurophu.

I-Guardian ibike ngo-August 2013:

“U-Assad wenqaba ukusayina isivumelwano esihlongozwayo neQatar neTurkey esizokwenza sebenzisa ipayipi elisuka endaweni yaseNyakatho yakamuva, ehambisana nenkundla yase-Iran yasePars, edlula eSaudi Arabia, eJordani, eSyria ukuya eTurkey, ngenhloso yokuhlinzeka ngezimakethe zaseYurophu - nakuba idlula iRussia. Isizathu sika-Assad ‘kwakuwukuvikela izithakazelo zomngane [wakhe] waseRussia, ongumphakeli ophambili waseYurophu wegesi yemvelo.’”

Ngokwazi ukuthi iSyria iyingxenye ebalulekile yecebo layo lamandla, iTurkey yazama ukunxenxa uMongameli waseSyria u-Bashar Assad ukuthi aguqule leli payipi lase-Iran futhi asebenzisane nepayipi elihlongozwayo le-Qatar-Turkey, elizokwanelisa ekugcineni iTurkey kanye nemizamo yezizwe zase-Gulf Arab yokubusa. izinto zegesi. Kodwa ngemva kokuba u-Assad enqabe isiphakamiso saseTurkey, iTurkey nabasekeli bayo baba abakhi abakhulu “bempi yombango” yaseSyria.

Iningi lesu elidlalwayo njengamanje lachazwa emuva ngo-2008 Umbiko we-RAND oxhaswe yi-US Army, "Ukwembula Ikusasa Lempi ende":

"Indawo yendawo yokugcina uwoyela efakazelwe ihambisana nesizinda samandla senethiwekhi yamaSalafi-jihadist. Lokhu kudala ukuxhumana phakathi kwempahla kawoyela kanye nempi ende okunganqamuki kalula noma okuvele kubonakale. … Ngokwekusasa elibonakalayo, ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuphuma okuphelele kuzobuswa yimithombo yePersian Gulf. ... Ngakho-ke isifunda sizohlala sibalulekile, futhi lokhu okubalulekile kuzosebenzisana kakhulu nokushushisa impi ende. "

Kulo mongo, umbiko ukhomba isu lokuhlukanisa futhi unqobe ngenkathi kusetshenziswa ukuhlukana kwamaSunni namaShiite ukuze kuvikelwe uwoyela negesi e-Gulf kuyilapho kugcinwa ukubusa kwezwe lase-Gulf Arab phezu kwezimakethe zikawoyela.

"I-Divide and Rule igxile ekusebenziseni imigqa yamaphutha phakathi kwamaqembu ahlukahlukene e-Salafi-jihadist ukuze abaphendulele komunye nomunye futhi bachithe amandla abo ezingxabanweni zangaphakathi. Leli su lincike kakhulu esenzweni esiyimfihlo, ekusebenzeni kolwazi (IO), ezimpini ezingajwayelekile, kanye nokwesekwa kwabezokuvikela bomdabu. … i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo bendawo bangasebenzisa ama-jihadists abuzwe ukwethula imikhankaso yommeleli we-IO ukuhlambalaza ama-jihadist aphesheya emehlweni abantu bendawo. … Abaholi baseMelika bangaphinde bakhethe ukusebenzisa indlela 'Yengxabano Eqhubekayo yamaShia-Sunni' ngokuthatha uhlangothi lwemibuso yamaSunni elandela imithetho emelene nezinhlangano zokuhlomisa amaShiite emhlabeni wamaMuslim…. ngokunokwenzeka ukusekela ohulumeni bamaSunni abanegunya ngokumelene ne-Iran eqhubekayo enobutha.”

Lo mbiko uphawula ukuthi enye inketho kungaba "ukuthatha uhlangothi engxabanweni, ngokunokwenzeka ukusekela ohulumeni bamaSunni abanegunya ngokumelene ne-Iran eqhubekayo enenzondo."

Lolu hlaka ludale i-eksisi ethokozisayo: iTurkey, iQatar, iSaudi Arabia, i-US, iBrithani neFrance iqhudelana neSyria, i-Iran neRussia.

Hlukanisa futhi unqobe: Indlela eya ekushintsheni kombuso

Njengoba i-US, France, Britain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia kanye neTurkey - eyaziwa, umfelandawonye omusha "we-Friends of Syria" - ifuna ukuketulwa kukaMongameli waseSyria uBashar Assad phakathi kuka-2011 no-2012 ngemuva kokwenqaba kuka-Assad ukungena epayipini legesi, izimali kanye nezingalo ezigelezela eSyria ukuze zondle labo abazibiza ngamavukela-mbuso “abalinganiselayo” babephusha iSyria enkingeni yokusiza abantu. Amaqembu amavukelambuso ayehlelwa kwesokunxele nakwesokudla, amaningi awo ayenamasosha angaphandle futhi amaningi awo ayehlangene ne-al-Qaida.

Uhulumeni waseSyria uphendule ngesandla esinzima, eqondise ezindaweni eziphethwe amavukelambuso futhi wabulala izakhamuzi.

Njengoba iSyria ihlukene ngokwenkolo, labo ababizwa ngokuthi “Abangane BaseSyria” baphusha amahlelo njengeqhinga labo elisemthethweni “lokuhlukanisa nokunqoba” lokuxosha u-Assad. Bethi ama-Alawites abusa iningi lesizwe samaSunni, ikhwelo lamavukelambuso “amaphakathi” asekelwa yi-US laba ngelikhulu lenkululeko yamaSunni.

Nakuba impi idayiswa emphakathini njengengxabano yamaSunni namaShiite, amaqembu abizwa ngokuthi amaSunni afana ne-ISIS, i-al-Qaida yaseSyria i-Jabhat al-Nusra (iNusra Front) kanye ne-"moderate" Free Syrian Army ayenze ngokungakhethi. kubhekiswe kumaSunni aseSyria, amaShiites, amaKrestu namaJuda. Ngaso leso sikhathi, zona lezi zizwe zakwamanye amazwe zeseka futhi zahlomisa ngisho nohulumeni wase-Bahrain, othi ungamaSunni, ekuhlaseleni kwawo ngodlame imibhikisho eminingi yamaShiite yokusekela intando yeningi eyahlasela isizwe.

Ibutho likahulumeni waseSyria ngokwalo lingaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-80 amaSunni, okukhombisa ukuthi i-ajenda yeqiniso ibigqugquzelwe ngokwezepolitiki - hhayi ngokwenkolo.

Ngaphezu kwalokhu, umndeni wakwa-Assad ungu-Alawite, ihlelo lamaSulumane abezindaba abahlangene namaShiites, nakuba iningi lamaShiite lingavuma ukuthi laba bobabili abahlobene. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umndeni wakwa-Assad uchazwa njengowezwe futhi uphethe isizwe sezwe. Ukubala ama-Alawite njengamaShiite kwakungenye indlela yokuphusha uhlaka lwamahlelo lwengxabano: Kwavumela umbono wokuthi umbimbi lwaseSyria-Iran lwalusekelwe enkolweni, kuyilapho, eqinisweni, kwakuwubudlelwane bezomnotho.

Lolu hlaka lwaklama ngokucophelela ukungqubuzana kweSyria njengenguquko yamaSunni ukuze izikhulule ethonyeni lamaShiite okwakuthiwa i-Iran yayisabalalisa e-Iraq, eSyria naseLebanon.

Kodwa iqiniso liwukuthi, umphakathi waseSyria wamaSunni uhlukene phakathi, futhi abaningi bahlubuka ukujoyina amaqembu afana neFree Syrian Army, ISIS kanye ne-al-Qaida. Futhi njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-80 ebutho lezempi lika-Assad lingamaSunni.

Kusukela ngo-2012, abavukeli abengeziwe ababehlome futhi bexhaswa ngamazwe ase-Arab Gulf kanye neTurkey njenge-al-Qaida kanye ne-Muslim Brotherhood, bamemezela impi enzima ngokumelene namaShiite. Baze basabisa ngokuhlasela iHezbollah yaseLebanon kanye nohulumeni wase-Iraq ngemuva kokuketula uhulumeni wase-Assad.

Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, iningi lamavukelambuso e-Muslim Brotherhood laba yingxenye yamaqembu ahlangene ne-al-Qaida. Ngokubambisana, bamemezele ukuthi bazocekela phansi zonke izindawo ezingcwele - hhayi lezo ezibaluleke kakhulu kumaShiite.

I-Hezbollah yangena endaweni yesigameko ngo-2012 futhi yazihlanganisa nohulumeni waseSyria ukulwa ne-al-Nusra ne-ISIS, eyayihlonyiswa ngokusemthethweni futhi ixhaswa ngezimali yiQatar, iSaudi Arabia neTurkey. Futhi zonke izikhali zazidayiselwa lezi zizwe yi-United States. Ngakho-ke, izingalo zase-US zaziwela ezandleni zeqembu elifanayo lamaphekula i-US ethi ilwa e-War on Terror ebanzi.

Ngokwemibiko, iHezbollah ibisebenza futhi ibilokhu ibambe iqhaza ekuvimbeleni ukungena kwamavukelambuso asuka eSyria aye eLebanon, okungenye yamandla abambe iqhaza empini yombango yaseSyria eLebanon. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, i-US yajezisa bobabili uhulumeni waseSyria kanye neHezbollah ngo-2012.

Ngawo lowo nyaka, iRussia ne-Iran bathumela abeluleki bezempi ukuba bayosiza uhulumeni waseSyria ekuqedeni amaqembu amaphekula, kodwa amasosha ase-Irani ayengekho phansi elwa ngalesi sikhathi.

Okwake kwaba yisizwe esingenazinkolo, esihlukene futhi esinokuthula, kwakubukeka sengathi kusendleleni yokuba yi-Afghanistan elandelayo; abantu bayo ababephila ngaphansi kombuso wesitayela samaTaliban njengoba amajihadist athatha umhlaba omningi futhi anqoba amadolobha amaningi.

Imithelela yokugxambukela kwamanye amazwe idlula ukuzimisela kwakho

Uma ucabanga ukuthi kwakunzima ukulandela lokho, ngokuqinisekile awuwedwa.

Izimpi zombango eziningi zehlelo zenzelwe ngamabomu ukuhlanganisa izinhlangothi ukuze zivumele indlela "yokuhlukanisa futhi unqobe" ehlukanisa ukugxila okukhulu kwamandla kube amaqembu amancane anobunzima obukhulu bokuxhumanisa. Kuyimfundiso yobukoloni eyasetshenziswa uMbuso WaseBrithani, futhi esikubona kwenzeka eSyria akufani.

Ngakho-ke, ake siqonde into eyodwa: Lokhu akuphathelene nenkolo. Kungase kube lula ukusho ukuthi ama-Arabs noma amaSulumane ayabulalana, futhi kulula ukuhlanganisa lezi zingxabano njengamahlelo ukuze upende isifunda nabantu baso njengobuqaba. Kodwa lo mbono we-Orientalist, olula ngokweqile wezingxabano eMpumalanga Ephakathi wenza izisulu zalezi zimpi zingabi nobuntu ukuze zithethelele isenzo sezempi esiqondile nesingaqondile.

Uma iqiniso belinikezwa umphakathi ngokombono wokuthi lezi zimpi ziphathelene nezithakazelo zezomnotho, abantu abaningi bebengeke basekele noma yikuphi uxhaso oluyimfihlo nokuhlonyiswa kwezikhali kwabavukeli noma ukungenelela okuqondile. Eqinisweni, iningi lomphakathi lalibhikishela impi. Kodwa lapho okuthile kwethulwa emphakathini njengendaba yokuhle nokubi, ngokwemvelo sithambekele ekuhlanganyeleni “nokuhle” futhi sithethelele impi ukuze silwe nalokho okuthiwa “okubi.”

Izinkulumo zezombusazwe zenzelwe ngokucophelela ukwenza amanga azwakale eyiqiniso futhi ahlonipheke ukubulala. Ekugcineni, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi i-ajenda, imifelandawonye noma ukungazinzi okwalethwa ukugxambukela kwamanye amazwe, izimemo zenkululeko, intando yeningi nokulingana ezaqubuka ngo-2011 zazingokoqobo ngaleso sikhathi futhi zingokoqobo namuhla. Futhi masingakhohlwa ukuthi ukuntuleka kwenkululeko, intando yeningi nokulingana kuye kwalethwa kakhulu ukugxambukela kwamanye amazwe ukuze kusekelwe omashiqela abanonya namaqembu amaphekula ngezikhali kunokuzibusa.

Abantu baseMpumalanga Ephakathi bake baba munye futhi baqina ndawonye ngokumelene nokugxambukela kwamanye amazwe, ukuxhashazwa kanye nobukoloni kungakhathaliseki isizinda sabo senkolo noma samasiko. Kodwa namuhla, iMpumalanga Ephakathi ibhidlizwa yizinhlelo ezikhohlisayo zokuthola uwoyela negesi ngokuxabanisa abantu ngenxa yenkolo. Izinxushunxushu ezalandela zihlinzeka ngekhava eyanele yokufaka uhlelo olusha oluvumelana kangcono nokuvula amapayipi kawoyela kanye nokuqinisekisa imizila ekahle kulabo abafaka amathenda aphakeme kakhulu.

Futhi kulokhu kuphushela amandla, ngabantu abahlupheka kakhulu. ESiriya, babaleka ngobuningi. Bayavuka, bagqokise abafana namantombazane abo amateku, futhi begxuma ezikebheni ngaphandle kwamajakhethi okuzivikela, benethemba lokuthi bazofika kolunye usebe. Babeka izimpilo zabo engcupheni, bazi kahle kamhlophe ukuthi bangase bangafiki kulolo lwandle, ngoba ithemba lakwenye indawo lingcono kuneqiniso lasekhaya.