ngu-Catherine Killough, Novemba 29, 2017, Ilogi ye-Lobe.
UMongameli uTrump uhlale ehlanekezela irekhodi lezingxoxo phakathi kweNorth Korea ne-United States. Enkulumweni yakhe phambi koMkhandlu Kazwelonke WaseNingizimu Korea, wafinyelela isiphetho esisodwa emlandweni oyinkimbinkimbi wempumelelo yezobunxusa ezuzwe kanzima: “Umbuso waseNyakatho Korea uqhubekile nezinhlelo zawo zezikhali zenuzi nezikhali ezicitshwayo ngokudelela zonke isiqinisekiso, isivumelwano nokuzibophezela okwenzile. e-United States nabasekeli bayo.”
Akukusha futhi akujwayelekile ukugxeka iNorth Korea ngerekhodi layo lezingxoxo elingaphelele, kodwa akukaze kube yingozi kakhulu. Ochungechungeni lwama-tweets ngenyanga edlule, uTrump akagcinanga nje ngokudelela imizamo yesikhathi esedlule yokusebenzelana “yokwenza abaxoxisana base-US izilima,” kodwa futhi waphetha ngokungacaci kahle, “Uxolo, iyodwa into ezosebenza!”
Uma kungenjalo i-diplomacy, lokho "into eyodwa" izwakala njengesiteleka samasosha, isiphakamiso esibucayi ebesilokhu siphindaphinda kulo lonke uhlelo lokusungulwa kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseWashington. Njengoba u-Evan Osnos ephawula kweyakhe esihlokweni Okwe New Yorker, “Ingabe Ikilasi Lezombangazwe Liya Empini neNyakatho Korea?” umqondo wempi yokuvimbela usugcwele kakhulu kangangokuthi ngisho nowayengunobhala weKhabhinethi yeDemocratic Alliance waveza isifuba sakhe, “ukuba ubekuhulumeni namuhla ubezokweseka ukuhlasela iNorth Korea, ukuze kuvinjwe ukuthi ingaqali isiteleka eMelika.”
Kulabo abafuna ukuvimbela impi engaholela ezigidini zabantu abalimala eNhlonhlweni YaseKorea, azikho izinketho zempi. Kepha kumaDemocrat amaningi, ukukhuthaza idiplomacy kubeka engcupheni yokubonisa ubuthakathaka. Ngokungamangalisi, izinyathelo zomnotho ezinqamula umugqa ophakathi kokujezisa kanye nokungeyona impi impela zithola ukwesekwa okubanzi kakhulu kwama-bipartisan.
Uma kubhekwa lesi simo sezombangazwe, ukulungisa umlando osontekile ezingxoxweni zase-US-North Korea kubalulekile—ikakhulukazi njengoba ukuthambekela kokubuka izingxoxo njengokushweleza, noma ukusebenzisana njengezivumelwano, kukhula ngamandla. Okuningi kwalokho kuvela endleleni abagxeki abasungule ngayo isivumelwano sokuqala esiholwa yi-US neNyakatho Korea nokuwa kwaso ekugcineni.
Isivumelwano Esimise I-Nukes yaseNyakatho Korea
Ngo-1994, i-United States neNyakatho Korea zazisonqenqemeni lwempi. Kwakungokokuqala ukuthi umbuso ongaziwa enyakatho ye-38th i-parallel yasongela ukuhamba nge-nuclear. Ngemva kokuxosha bonke abahloli bamazwe ngamazwe ezweni, iNyakatho Korea yalungiselela ukukhipha amabhomu ayisithupha e-plutonium yezinga lezikhali ezindongeni zikaphethiloli kumshini wayo wokucwaninga wase-Yongbyon.
Ngaleso sikhathi, uMengameli onobuso obusha uBill Clinton wayecabanga ukuthatha isinyathelo sezempi, okuhlanganisa nohlelo lokuhlinzwa ezikhungweni zenuzi zaseNyakatho Korea. Iningi lezikhulu zakhe eziphezulu lalingabaza ukuthi lingakwazi ukunxenxa abaseNyakatho Korea ekukhiqizeni izikhali zenuzi. Njengomsizi kaNobhala Wezokuvikela Wezokuphepha Kwamazwe Ngamazwe u-Ashton Carter wathi, “Sasingaqinisekanga nganoma iyiphi indlela ukuthi singabaxoxisa ekuthatheni leso sinyathelo.”
Kodwa-ke, njengoNobhala Wezokuvikela uWilliam Perry ukhunjulwe, ubungozi bokubhebhetheka kweMpi yesibili yaseKorea kwaphoqa abaphathi ukuthi baphishekele indlela yokusebenzelana nezwe. Umhlangano phakathi kukaMongameli wangaphambili uJimmy Carter kanye nomholi waseNyakatho Korea uKim Il Sung waholela ezingxoxweni ezibucayi zamazwe amabili ezafinyelela umvuthwandaba ngoHlaka Lwesivumelwano Se-US-North Korea ngo-Okthoba 21, 1994.
Kulesi sivumelwano esiyingqopha-mlando, i-North Korea yavuma ukumisa iqhwa futhi ekugcineni ihlakaze ama-reactors ayo alinganiswe nge-graphite ukuze ithole uphethiloli kanye nezinsimbi ezimbili ezikwazi ukumelana nokwanda kwamanzi. Lezi ziphehlimandla zingakhiqiza amandla, kodwa azikwazanga, empeleni, zisetshenziselwe ukwenza izikhali zenuzi.
Cishe iminyaka eyishumi, i-United States ibambe ulayini oqondile, ovulekile wokuxhumana nombuso odidekile futhi ongavikelekile. Lelo zinga lokusebenzisana lenze kwaba nokwenzeka ukuthi izitha ezimbili zizibophezele esivumelwaneni esinomphumela obalulekile, wezinto ezibonakalayo: INorth Korea yayeka ukukhiqiza i-plutonium iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili. NjengowayeyiNxusa laseMelika eNingizimu Korea uThomas Hubbard waphetha, Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo “lwabonakala lungaphelele… Kodwa lwayivimbela iNorth Korea ekukhiqizeni izikhali zenuzi ezingaba yi-100 njengamanje.”
Ngeshwa, lezi zimpumelelo zisithwe ukuwohloka koHlaka Okuvunyiwe, lapho “ukugoqa” kufane nokuthi “ukwehluleka.” Kodwa ukusho ukuthi isivumelwano sehlulekile kuchaza kancane ukuthi iyiphi impumelelo engahlanganisa nezwe elithwele imithwalo eminingi yomlando njengeNorth Korea. Ukusakazwa kahle kwemithombo yezindaba, okuhlanganisa nokushiywa ngaphandle kokushiyeka ngasohlangothini lwase-US lwesivumelwano, kuyimbangela yecala. Kepha ama-hawkish Conservatives, osekuyisikhathi eside exhaphaza isivumelwano njengesexwayiso sokushweleza ngenkululeko, ikakhulukazi anephutha.
Kokubili i-United States neNyakatho Korea babambe iqhaza ekubhidlikeni koHlaka Lwesivumelwano Esivunyiwe, kodwa ukugomela kokuthi iNorth Korea yakhomba kuyalifihla lelo qiniso. Ngokushesha ngemva kokuba abaphathi bakaClinton benze isivumelwano, amaRiphabhlikhi athola ukulawula iCongress, okwaholela "ekungabini kwentando yezombangazwe," ngokuvumelana ne umxoxisi omkhulu uRobert Gallucci, futhi kwaholela ekubambezelekeni okukhulu ekulethweni kwezibopho zase-US.
Ukuphikiswa kweCongressional kwaphinda kwanda ngo-1998 phakathi kwezinsolo zokuthi iNyakatho yayifihla indawo yenuzi engaphansi komhlaba eKumchang-ri. Esikhundleni sokuthatha indlela yokujezisa, abaphathi bakaClinton badlulisela ukukhathazeka kwabo ngqo kwabaseNyakatho Korea futhi, befuna ukuhlenga isivumelwano, baxoxisana ngesivumelwano esisha esivumela i-United States ukuthi ihlolwe njalo indawo okusolwa ukuthi kuyona, lapho yehluleka khona ukuthola noma yibuphi ubufakazi balokho. umsebenzi wenuzi.
Le ndlela yokusebenzelana nezikhulu yaqhubeka njengoba uhlelo lwezikhali ezicitshwayo lwaseNyakatho Korea oluthuthukayo lukhala ama-alamu amasha. Kulandela ukwethulwa kweNorth Korea komcibisholo webanga elide elijikijelwayo phezu kweJapan ngo-1998, abaphathi bakaClinton bajube ithimba elincane lochwepheshe bangaphakathi nangaphandle bakahulumeni ngokuBuyekezwa Kwenqubomgomo YaseNyakatho Korea okwakuzohlanganisa imigomo eshiwo Ohlakeni Okuvunyelenwe ngalo.
OwayenguNobhala Wezokuvikela uWilliam Perry usebenzisane nohulumeni waseNorth Korea, South Korea, China, kanye neJapan kulokho okwaziwa ngokuthi yiPerry Process. Izingxoxo eziningana zafinyelela umvuthwandaba ngo-1999 ngombiko owawuchaza izincomo zokuthi i-United States iphishekele ukumiswa okungaqinisekiswa futhi ekugcineni kuhlakazwe imisebenzi ejikijelwayo yaseNyakatho neyebanga elide. Ngokulandelayo, ithimba elibuyekeza inqubomgomo lithole ukuthi i-United States kufanele ithathe izinyathelo zokubhekana nezinkinga zokuphepha zaseNyakatho futhi isungule ubudlelwano obujwayelekile.
INorth Korea yasabela kahle ngokungagcini ngokuvuma ukumisa ukuhlolwa kwayo kwemicibisholo ngesikhathi sezingxoxo, kodwa futhi yathumela umeluleki wayo omkhulu wezempi eWashington ukuze axoxe ngemininingwane yesiphakamiso sikaPerry noMongameli Clinton. UNobhala Wezwe uMadeleine Albright wamukele lokhu kuvakasha ngokuya ePyongyang emhlanganweni noKim Jong Il kamuva kuleyo nyanga.
Nokho, umfutho kulokho owake waba nguMeluleki Okhethekile kuMongameli Wendy Sherman esibizwa isiphakamiso “esisondele ngokumangalisayo” samiswa ngenyanga ezayo ngokukhethwa kukaGeorge W. Bush. Owabe enguNobhala Wombuso u-Colin Powell wathi inqubomgomo yaseNyakatho Korea izoqhubeka lapho uClinton egcine khona, kodwa uBush, owanquma ukukhansela zonke izingxoxo neNorth Korea eminyakeni emibili ezayo, wamchitha.
Abaphathi bakaBush baphambukela kude nenkambo yobunxusa abaphathi bakaClinton abazama ukuyigcina. UBush wengeze iNorth Korea ku-triad yakhe ye-"axis of evil" ithi. U-Dick Cheney wenqabile i-diplomacy mayelana nokushintshwa kombuso, wathi, “Asixoxisana nobubi. Siyayinqoba.” U-Undersecretary of State for Arms Control uJohn Bolton wasebenzisa imibiko yezobunhloli mayelana nohlelo okusolwa ukuthi luyimfihlo lokunothisa i-uranium ukuze abulale isivumelwano ayengakaze asithande. Ngamazwi akhe, “Lesi bekuyisando ebengikade ngisifuna ukubhidliza Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngayo.”
Ekugcineni, abaphathi bakaBush basola ukuthi isikhulu saseNyakatho Korea saqinisekisa ukuba khona kohlelo okusolwa ukuthi lunothiswe nge-uranium. INorth Korea ikuphikile lokhu, okuholele ekutheni kube nezinsolo zokuthi uhlangothi ngalunye lwephula isivumelwano. Esikhundleni sokusebenzela ukunqoba ukungathembani okwandayo, i-United States yahoxa esivumelwaneni ngo-2002.
I-Agreed Framework Redux
Ukwenqaba kukaBush ukusebenzisana neNyakatho Korea kwabuya kwadumaza abaphathi bakhe ngo-2003. INorth Korea yaluqalisa ngokushesha uhlelo lwayo lwe-plutonium futhi yamemezela ukuthi inesikhali senuzi. Iqiniseka ngesidingo sokuphinda ingene ezingxoxweni, i-United States yajoyina i-China, i-Russia, i-Japan, ne-South Korea ku-Six Party Talks.
Imijikelezo eminingana yezingxoxo yaholela empumelelweni eminyakeni emibili kamuva ngeSitatimende Esihlanganyelwe sango-2005, esathembisa iNyakatho ukuthi ilahle “zonke izikhali zenuzi nezinhlelo zenuzi ezikhona.” Kodwa kuthe kungakapholi maseko la maqembu ayisithupha ememezele isivumelwano lapho uMgcinimafa wase-US emise impahla yaseNyakatho Korea ebhange laseMacau, iBanco Delta Asia.
Ebuholini baseNyakatho Korea, ukuvala ukufinyelela kwabo emalini eyizigidi ezingama- $ 25 kwakuyicala elikhulu futhi baphakamisa ukuthi i-United States yayingazimisele ngokwenza isivumelwano. Ngisho nalabo abasebenzela abaphathi, njengenxusa elikhulu lezingxoxo uChristopher Hill, babone lesi senzo njengomzamo “wokuphazamisa izingxoxo ngokuphelele.”
Noma ngabe iziphi izinhloso zoMnyango Wezezimali wase-US, ukubanjwa kweqhwa kube nomthelela wokudalula iminyaka yenqubekelaphambili etholakale kanzima ukuze kwakhiwe kabusha ukwethembana. INorth Korea yaziphindiselela ngo-2006 ngokungagcini nje ngokuvivinya imicibisholo eyisishiyagalombili, kodwa futhi yaqhumisa isisetshenziswa sayo sokuqala senuzi.
I-United States isanda kusizakala izingxoxo ngokususa iqhwa futhi isuse iNyakatho Korea ohlwini lwabaxhasi bombuso Bobuphekula ngo-2007. Ngokubuyisela emuva, iNorth Korea yaphinda yaphinda yabahloli bezikhali zenuzi futhi yakhubaza i-reactor yayo yase-Yongbyon, yaqhuma umbhoshongo opholile emcimbini omangalisayo wethelevishini. Kodwa umonakalo owanele wenzeke kangangokuthi ngesikhathi kuphakama izingxabano ezintsha mayelana nezinyathelo zokuqinisekisa, Izingxoxo Zeqembu Eliyisithupha zafika kwangqingetshe futhi zahluleka ukuya esigabeni sokugcina sokuhlakaza uhlelo lwezikhali zenuzi lwaseNyakatho Korea.
Imikhawulo Yokubekezela Kwamasu
Njengabaphathi abangaphambi kwakhe, uMongameli u-Obama wephuza ukuxoxisana nabathengi neNorth Korea. Yize u-Obama akwenza kwacaca zisuka nje ukuthi uzothatha indlela ye-pro-diplomacy futhi “elule isandla” kuleyo mibuso “ezimisele ukukucisha isibhakela,” iNorth Korea yehlela phansi ohlwini lwayo lwezinto eziza kuqala kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle.
Esikhundleni salokho, inqubomgomo "yesineke samasu" yamela noma yimuphi umzamo ohlosiwe wokubuyisela iNorth Korea etafuleni lezingxoxo. Yize umnyango wezingxoxo usavuliwe ngobuchwepheshe, iMelika ilandele unswinyo nemikhankaso yengcindezi ngendlela engafani nokuma kwamanje kokuphatha kukaTrump. INorth Korea yahoxisa ingxenye yayo yezehlakalo, okuhlanganisa isivivinyo sesibili senuzi kanye nezimpi ezimbili ezibulalayo emngceleni wayo neSouth Korea.
Kwaze kwafika ngo-2011 lapho abaphathi baka-Obama baqala kabusha izingxoxo zokuqeda amandla enyukliya. Ngemuva kwesikhashana ngemuva kokushona kukaKim Jong Il, la mazwe womabili amemezela isivumelwano se-"Leap Day" ngoFebhuwari 2012. INorth Korea yavuma ukumiswa kokuhlolwa kwayo kwemicibisholo emide nezikhali zenuzi ukuze ithole amathani angama-240,000 wosizo lokudla. .
Ezinsukwini eziyishumi nesithupha kamuva, iNorth Korea yamemezela izinhlelo zayo zokwethula isathelayithi emkhathini. I-United States ibambe umbono wokuthi ukwethulwa okunjalo kuzokwephula imigomo yesivumelwano, kanti iNorth Korea bathi, “ukwethulwa kwesathelayithi akufakiwe ekuthuthweni kwezikhali ezicitshwayo zebanga elide” futhi saqhubeka nezinhlelo zakhona.
Abaphathi basichitha ngokushesha isivumelwano, okuyisinyathelo esididayo esinikezwe imizamo yangaphambilini yase-US yokubhekana nezingozi zokusetshenziswa okubili kobuchwepheshe bemicibisholo. Isibonelo, amashumi eminyaka i-United States yenqaba izicelo ze-South Korea zokwelula ububanzi bemicibisholo ejikijelwayo ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi uzoqala umjaho wezikhali wesifunda. Phakathi nengcindezi ekhulayo, i-United States yafinyelela esivumelwaneni ngo-2001 esandisa ububanzi bemisebenzi ecitshwayo yaseNingizimu Korea ngenkathi sihlanganisa izithiyo ezithile ohlelweni lwayo lokwethulwa komkhathi, njengokusetshenziswa okuveziwe kukaphethiloli owuketshezi.
Esikhundleni sokubukeza kabusha isivumelwano ukuze ihlukanise ngokucacile lokho okwamukelekayo mayelana nokwethulwa kwesathelayithi noma imicibisholo, i-United States yavumela izingxoxo neNorth Korea, futhi, zawela endleleni.
Okuwukuphela Kwenketho
Ukube uBush wayelugcinile Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo, ukube abaqinile abazange bachithe Izingxoxo Zeqembu Eliyisithupha, futhi ukube u-Obama wayeyicacisile imigomo yesivumelwano seLeap Day, iNorth Korea ingase ingabi yinhlekelele yenuzi ephethe i-United States namadlelandawonye ayo namuhla.
Kodwa izithembiso ezephulwayo namabhuloho ashisiwe akuzona izaba zokulahla izingxoxo. Kunezifundo eziningi phakathi kokuqhekeka kwerekhodi lezingxoxo elingalingani okufanele likhishwe, okuhlanganisa nesidingo sokubhekana ngqo nezindaba zokuphepha zaseNyakatho Korea kanye nokubaluleka okubalulekile kokuxhumana kwe-US.
Kusenokuvulwa kwesivumelwano neNorth Korea, kodwa uTrump usabisa ngokuyivala njalo uma ebukela phansi ukubaluleka kwezingxoxo. Njengoba wonke umongameli selokhu uClinton egcine eqonda, uma enye indlela ngeNorth Korea kuyimpi, yonke inketho yezokuxhumana kufanele ihlolwe ngokugcwele. Izigidi zabantu ziphila ngokulingana.
U-Catherine Killough ungu-Roger L. Hale Fellow ku-Plowshares Fund, isisekelo sezokuphepha emhlabeni wonke. Uthole i-MA yakhe ezifundweni zase-Asia eSikoleni Senkonzo Yangaphandle eYunivesithi yaseGeorgetown. Landela ku-Twitter @catkillough. Isithombe: UJimmy Carter noKim Il Sung.
