Ukufunda Izifundo Ezingalungile ezivela e-Ukraine

NguDavid Swanson, World BEYOND War, Ngo-Ephreli 11, i-2022

I-Ukraine yaziyeka izikhali zayo zenuzi futhi yahlaselwa. Ngakho-ke wonke amazwe kufanele abe nezikhali zenuzi.

I-NATO ayizange ingeze i-Ukraine, ehlaselwe. Ngakho-ke wonke amazwe noma okungenani eziningi zazo kufanele zengezwe ku-NATO.

I-Russia inohulumeni omubi. Ngakho-ke kufanele ichithwe.

Lezi zifundo zidumile, zinengqondo - ngisho neqiniso elingangabazeki emiqondweni eminingi - futhi azilungile futhi azilungile ngokusobala.

Umhlaba ube nenhlanhla emangalisayo kanye nenani eliphezulu ngendlela exakayo yokuphuthelwa yizikhali zenuzi. Ukuhamba nje kwesikhathi kwenza i-apocalypse yenuzi ibe nokwenzeka kakhulu. Ososayensi abagcina Iwashi Losuku Lwenhlekelele bathi ubungozi manje bukhulu kunangaphambili. Ukuyibhebhethekisa ngokwanda nakakhulu kunezela engcupheni. Kulabo ababeka ukusinda kokuphila eMhlabeni ngaphezu kwanoma iyiphi ingxenye yalokho kuphila okubukeka (ngoba awukwazi ukuhoxisa ifulegi futhi uzonde isitha uma ungekho) ukuqeda izikhali zenuzi kufanele kube yinto ehamba phambili, njengokuqeda izikhali zenuzi. ukukhishwa kwegesi okucekela phansi isimo sezulu.

Kodwa kuthiwani uma wonke amazwe anikezela ngama-nukes ehlaselwa? Lokho kungaba intengo ekhuphukayo ngempela, kodwa akunjalo. I-Kazakhstan nayo yadela ama-nukes ayo. Kanjalo neBelarus. INingizimu Afrika yadela ama-nukes ayo. I-Brazil ne-Argentina bakhethe ukungabi nama-nukes. INingizimu Korea, iTaiwan, iSweden, neJapane bakhethe ukungabi nama-nukes. Manje, kuyiqiniso ukuthi iLibya yaluyeka uhlelo lwayo lwezikhali zenuzi futhi yahlaselwa. Futhi kuyiqiniso ukuthi amazwe amaningi angenazo izikhali zenuzi ahlaselwe: i-Iraq, i-Afghanistan, iSyria, iYemen, iSomalia, njll. I-Europe, ungayivimbi impi enkulu ye-proxy ne-US ne-Europe ehlomisa i-Ukraine ngokumelene neRussia, ungayeki ukucindezela okukhulu kwempi neChina, ungavimbeli ama-Afghan nama-Iraqi namaSyria ukulwa nebutho laseMelika, futhi ube kuningi okuphathelene nokuqala impi e-Ukraine njengoba ukungabikho kwabo kwenza ngokuhluleka ukuyivimbela.

Inkinga yemicibisholo yaseCuba yayihilela i-US ukuthi iphikisane nemicibisholo yaseSoviet eCuba, kanye ne-USSR ephikisana nemicibisholo yase-US eTurkey nase-Italy. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-US ilahle izivumelwano eziningi zokuhoxiswa kwezikhali, yagcina imicibisholo yenuzi eTurkey (kanye nase-Italy, eJalimane, eNetherlands, naseBelgium), futhi yabeka izisekelo ezintsha ezicitshwayo ePoland naseRomania. Phakathi kwezaba zeRussia zokuhlasela i-Ukraine kwakuwukubeka izikhali eduze komngcele wayo kunanini ngaphambili. Izaba, akudingekile ukusho, azizona izizathu, futhi isifundo esifundwe eRussia ukuthi i-US ne-NATO ngeke ilalele lutho ngaphandle kwempi iyisifundo esingamanga njengalezo ezifundwa e-US naseYurophu. IRussia ibingasekela umthetho futhi iwine ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba ohlangothini lwayo. Ikhethe ukungakwenzi.

Eqinisweni, i-United States neRussia awazona izingxenye ze-International Criminal Court. IMelika ijezisa abanye ohulumeni ngokweseka i-ICC. I-United States neRussia ziyazishaya indiva izinqumo zeNkantolo Yobulungisa Yamazwe Ngamazwe. Ukuketula umbuso okwesekwa yi-US e-Ukraine ngo-2014, imizamo yase-US neRussia yokunqoba i-Ukraine iminyaka, ukuhlomisana ngezingxabano e-Donbas, kanye nokuhlasela kweRussia ngo-2022 kugqamisa inkinga ebuholini bomhlaba.

Kwamalungelo abantu ayi-18 amakhulu izivumelwano, iRussia iyingxenye yabangu-11 kuphela, kanti i-United States yaba ngu-5 kuphela, abambalwa njenganoma yisiphi isizwe eMhlabeni. Zombili lezi zizwe zephula izivumelwano ngokuthanda kwazo, okuhlanganisa i-United Nations Charter, i-Kellogg Briand Pact, neminye imithetho emelene nempi. Zombili izizwe ziyenqaba ukusekela kanye nokudelela obala izivumelwano zokuncishiswa kwezikhali ezinkulu kanye nezivumelwano zokulwa nezikhali ezisekelwa iningi lomhlaba. Asisekeli iSivumelwano Sokuvinjelwa Kwezikhali Zenuzi. Futhi ayihambisani nemfuneko yokuncishiswa kwezikhali yeSivumelwano Sokungenzi Izikhali Zenuzi, futhi i-United States empeleni igcina izikhali zenuzi kwezinye izizwe ezinhlanu futhi icabanga ukuzifaka kokuningi, kuyilapho iRussia ikhulume ngokubeka ama-nukes eBelarus.

I-Russia ne-United States zimi njengemibuso ekhohlakele ngaphandle kweSivumelwano Semigodi Yomhlaba, i-Convention on Cluster Munitions, i-Arms Trade Treaty, nezinye eziningi. I-United States neRussia bangabathengisi ababili abahamba phambili bezikhali emhlabeni wonke, behlangene bebalwa ngezikhali eziningi ezithengiswa futhi zathunyelwa. Ngaleso sikhathi izindawo eziningi ezinezimpi azizenzi nhlobo izikhali. Izikhali zingeniswa emazweni amaningi emhlabeni zisuka ezindaweni ezimbalwa kakhulu. I-United States neRussia bangabasebenzisi ababili abaphezulu bamandla e-veto eMkhandlwini Wezokuphepha we-UN, ngamunye evamise ukuvala intando yeningi ngevoti elilodwa.

IRussia ibingavimba ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine ngokungahlaseli i-Ukraine. IYurophu ibingavimba ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine ngokutshela i-US neRussia ukuthi banake ezabo ibhizinisi. I-United States cishe yayingakuvimbela ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine nganoma yisiphi salezi zinyathelo ezilandelayo, ochwepheshe base-US abaxwayise ngokuthi kudingeka ukugwema impi neRussia:

• Ukuqeda i-NATO lapho i-Warsaw Pact iqedwa.
• Ukwenqaba ukwandisa i-NATO.
• Ukugwema ukusekela izinguquko zemibala nokuketula umbuso.
• Ukusekela isenzo esingenalo udlame, ukuqeqeshwa ukumelana okungahlomile, nokungathathi hlangothi.
• Ukushintsha kusuka kumafutha emvelo.
• Ukuyeka ukuhlomisa i-Ukraine, ukuhlomisa izikhali zaseMpumalanga Yurophu, nokuqhuba izivivinyo zempi eMpumalanga Yurophu.
• Ukwamukela izimfuno zaseRussia ezinengqondo ngokuphelele ngoDisemba 2021.

Ngo-2014, iRussia yaphakamisa ukuthi i-Ukraine ingahambelani neNtshonalanga noma iMpumalanga kodwa isebenzisane nakho kokubili. I-US yawuchitha lowo mbono futhi yasekela ukuketula umbuso kwamasosha okwafaka uhulumeni osekela iNtshonalanga.

Ngokuvumelana ne UTed Snider:

"Ngo-2019, uVolodymyr Zelensky wakhethwa endaweni yesikhulumi esibonisa ukuthula neRussia nokusayina Isivumelwano saseMinsk. Isivumelwano saseMinsk sanikeza ukuzimela ezifundeni zaseDonetsk naseLugansk zaseDonbas ezazivotele ukuzimela e-Ukraine ngemva kokuketula umbuso. Yanikeza ikhambi elithembisa kakhulu lamanxusa. Ebhekene nengcindezi yasekhaya, nokho, uZelensky uzodinga ukwesekwa yi-US. Akazange ayithole futhi, ngokusho kukaRichard Sakwa, uProfesa Wezombangazwe ZaseRussia NezaseYurophu eNyuvesi yaseKent, 'wavinjelwa ama- nationalists.' UZelensky wehla emgwaqeni we-diplomacy futhi wenqaba ukukhuluma nabaholi beDonbas nokusebenzisa izivumelwano zeMinsk.

“Njengoba ehlulekile ukweseka uZelensky esixazululweni sezokuxhumana neRussia, uWashington wabe esehluleka ukumcindezela ukuthi abuyele ekusetshenzisweni kweSivumelwano saseMinsk. USakwa utshele lo mbhali ukuthi, 'ngokuqondene neMinsk, i-US noma i-EU ayifaki ingcindezi enkulu ku-Kyiv ukuthi igcwalise ingxenye yayo yesivumelwano.' Nakuba i-US yagunyaza ngokusemthethweni uMinsk, u-Anatol Lieven, uzakwabo omkhulu wocwaningo eRussia naseYurophu e-Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, etshela lo mbhali, 'akenzanga lutho ukusunduza i-Ukraine ukuthi iyisebenzise.' Abase-Ukrainian banikeze uZelensky igunya lesixazululo sezombusazwe. IWashington ayizange ikusekele noma ikukhuthaze. ”

Yize ngisho noMengameli waseMelika uBarack Obama ephikisana nokuhlonyiswa kwezikhali i-Ukraine, uTrump noBiden bakuthanda, futhi manje iWashington isikunyuse ngendlela emangalisayo. Ngemva kweminyaka eyisishiyagalombili yokusiza uhlangothi lwase-Ukraine empini ebise-Donbas, futhi namagatsha ezempi yase-US njenge-RAND Corporation ekhiqiza imibiko yokuthi i-Russia ingangena kanjani empini elimazayo e-Ukraine, i-US yenqabile noma yiziphi izinyathelo ezingase zilethe impi. izingxoxo zokuqeda ukulwa nokuthula. Njengenkolelo yaphakade yokuthi uMongameli waseSyria usezoketulwa noma nini, futhi ukwenqaba kwakhe ukuhlaliswa ngokuthula kulelo zwe, uhulumeni wase-US, ngokusho kukaMongameli Biden, uthanda ukuketulwa kukahulumeni waseRussia, noma ngabe kanjani. abaningi base-Ukraine bayafa. Futhi uhulumeni wase-Ukraine ubonakala evuma kakhulu. Kubikwa ukuthi uMongameli wase-Ukraine uZelensky wenqatshelwe Isipho sokuthula ezinsukwini ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwemibandela ecishe yamukelwe yilabo - uma bekhona - abashiywe bephila.

Kuyimfihlo egcinwe kahle, kepha ukuthula akuntekenteke noma kunzima. Ukuqala impi kunzima kakhulu. Kudinga umzamo ohlangene ukuze kugwenywe ukuthula. I izibonelo okufakazela lesi simangalo kufaka phakathi zonke izimpi ezedlule eMhlabeni. Isibonelo esivame ukuphakanyiswa uma siqhathaniswa ne-Ukraine yiGulf War ka-1990-1991. Kodwa leso sibonelo sincike ekusuleni enkumbulweni yethu esiyiqoqo/yenkampani iqiniso lokuthi uhulumeni wase-Iraqi wayezimisele ukuxoxisana ngokuhoxa e-Kuwait ngaphandle kwempi futhi wagcina ethembise ukuvele ahoxe e-Kuwait kungakapheli amasonto amathathu ngaphandle kwemibandela. Inkosi yaseJordani, uPapa, uMongameli waseFrance, uMongameli weSoviet Union, nabanye abaningi banxusa ukuba kube nokuxazululwa okunjalo okunokuthula, kodwa i-White House yaphikelela “ekugcineni kwayo” impi. I-Russia ibilokhu ibala lokho okuzodingeka ukuqeda impi yase-Ukraine kusukela ngaphambi kokuthi kuqale impi - izimfuno okufanele zibhekwe nezinye izimfuno, hhayi izikhali.

Kulabo abanesikhathi sokufunda umlando futhi baqonde ukuthi ukuthula kungenzeka ngokuphelele, kungase kube lula ukubona iphutha embonweni wokuzifeza wokuthi i-NATO kumele yandiswe noma isongela iRussia, futhi noma iRussia ihlasela ukuyivimba. . Inkolelo yokuthi uhulumeni waseRussia uzohlasela noma yikuphi lapho angathola khona umphumela kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kwenzekani, ngisho noma kungeniswa ku-NATO kanye ne-EU, noma ngisho noma i-NATO yaqedwa, ayinabufakazi. Kodwa asikho isidingo sokukubheka njengephutha. Kungaba kuhle kakhulu. Ngokuqinisekile okufanayo kubonakala sengathi kungenzeka nge-US nakwabanye ohulumeni. Kepha ukwenqaba ukwandisa i-NATO bekungeke kuvimbele iRussia ukuthi ihlasele i-Ukraine ngoba uhulumeni waseRussia uwumsebenzi omuhle wokusiza umphakathi. Bekuzovimbela iRussia ukuthi ihlasele i-Ukraine ngoba uhulumeni waseRussia ubungeke ube nezaba ezinhle zokudayisela izikhulu zaseRussia, umphakathi waseRussia, noma umhlaba.

Phakathi neMpi Yomshoshaphansi yekhulu lama-20 kwakukhona izibonelo - ezinye zazo okwaxoxwa ngazo encwadini yakamuva ka-Andrew Cockburn - yamasosha ase-US naseSoviet abangela izigameko eziphezulu ngesikhathi nje olunye uhlangothi luphishekela uxhaso lwezikhali ezengeziwe kuhulumeni walo. Ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine kwenzele i-NATO okuningi kunalokho obekungenziwa yi-NATO iyodwa. Ukwesekwa kwe-NATO kwezempi e-Ukraine naseMpumalanga Yurophu eminyakeni yamuva nje kwenze okwengeziwe kwezempi yaseRussia kunanoma ubani eRussia. Umbono wokuthi okudingekayo manje kungaphezulu kwalokho okudale ukungqubuzana kwamanje kufana nokuqinisekisa imibono edinga kakhulu ukubuzwa.

Umbono wokuthi iRussia inohulumeni omubi ngakho-ke kufanele iketulwe yinto embi kakhulu ukuthi izikhulu zase-US zisho. Yonke indawo eMhlabeni inohulumeni omubi. Kufanele bonke baketulwe. Uhulumeni wase-US uhlomisa futhi uxhasa ngemali cishe bonke ohulumeni ababi kakhulu emhlabeni, futhi isinyathelo sokuqala esilula sokuyeka ukwenza lokho kufanele sikhuthazwe kakhulu. Kepha ukuketula ohulumeni ngaphandle kwenhlangano yendawo enkulu edumile nezimele engacindezelwa amabutho angaphandle nasezingeni eliphezulu kuyindlela engapheli efakazelwe yenhlekelele. Namanje angikacaci ukuthi yini eyalungisa uGeorge W. Bush, kodwa ngimdala ngokwanele ukuthi ngingakhumbula lapho ngisho nababukela izindaba ngezikhathi ezithile bezwa ukuthi ukuketula ohulumeni kwakuyinhlekelele noma ngokwemibandela yayo, nokuthi umqondo ophambili wokusabalalisa intando yeningi wawuzoba yinhlekelele. kube ukuhola ngesibonelo ngokuzama ezweni lakubo.