Ngabe i-NATO Isadingeka?

NguSharon Tennison, uDavid Speedie noKrishen Mehta

April 18, 2020

Kusukela Intshisekelo Yezwe

Umqedazwe we-coronavirus odala umhlaba uletha ubunzima obude bezempilo yomphakathi-Kukhona nethemba elimfushane lomnotho wesikhathi eside ongabhubhisa isimo senhlalo ezizweni zonke.

Abaholi bomhlaba kumele baphinde babheke ukusetshenziswa kwezinsiza ngokuya ngezinsongo zangempela nezamanje zokuphepha kwezwe-ke futhi ukuthi baphinde babhekane kanjani. Ukuzibophezela okuqhubekayo kwi-NATO, okufiswa yizifiso zomhlaba wonke kuqhutshwa futhi kuxhaswe yi-United States, kumele kungabazeki.

Ngo-1949, uNobhala-Jikelele wokuqala we-NATO, wachaza ukuthunyelwa kweNATO ngokuthi "ukukhipha iRussia, amaMelika ngaphakathi, namaJalimane." Iminyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa, imvelo yezokuphepha isishintshe ngokuphelele. ISoviet Union neWarsaw Pact azisekho. Udonga lwaseBerlin seluwile, futhi iJalimane alinazifiso zokuphikisana nomakhelwane. Kodwa-ke, iMelika iseseYurophu nenhlangano yeNATO yamazwe angamashumi amabili nesishiyagalolunye.

Ngo-1993, omunye wababhali, uDavid Speedie, waxoxisana noMikhail Gorbachev futhi wambuza ngeziqinisekiso athi uzitholile ngokungakhuphuki kweNATO ngasempumalanga. Impendulo yakhe ibingasho lutho: “Mnu. Speedie, sihlasile. " Wayecace bha esinqumweni sakhe ukuthi ukwethemba okwabekwa yiSoviet Union eNtshonalanga, ngokuhlangana kweJalimane nokuchithwa kweWarsaw Pact, akuzange kubuyiselwe emuva.

Lokhu kuphakamisa umbuzo obalulekile: ngabe ngabe i-NATO namuhla ikhulisa ukuphepha komhlaba noma empeleni iyakunciphisa.

Sikholelwa ukuthi kunezizathu eziyishumi eziphambili zokuthi i-NATO ayisadingeki:

One: I-NATO yadalwa ngo-1949 ngenxa yezizathu ezintathu eziphambili ezichazwe ngenhla. Lezi zizathu azisasebenzi. Isimo sezokuphepha eYurophu sihluke ngokuphelele namuhla kunaseminyakeni engamashumi ayisikhombisa edlule. Umongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin empeleni uhlongoze uhlelo olusha lokuphepha ezweni lonke “ukusuka eDublin kuye eVladivostok,” okwaliwa yiNtshonalanga ngaphandle. Uma yamukelwa, khona-ke ngabe ifaka neRussia ekwakhiweni kwezokuphepha ngokubambisana obekungaphephisa umphakathi womhlaba jikelele.

Two: Kuphikiswa abanye ukuthi usongo lweRussia yanamuhla yingakho iMelika idinga ukuhlala eYurophu. Kepha cabanga ngalokhu: Umnotho we-EU wawungama- $ 18.8 trillion ngaphambi kweBrexit, futhi uyi- $ 16.6 Trillion ngemuva kweBrexit. Uma uqhathanisa, umnotho waseRussia ungama- $ 1.6 trillion namuhla. Njengoba sinomnotho we-EU izikhathi ezingaphezu kweshumi ngomnotho waseRussia, siyakholelwa yini ukuthi iYurophu ayikwazi ukukhokhela ukuzivikela kwayo eRussia? Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi i-UK izohlala nakumbimbi yezokuvikela i-Euro futhi isazoqhubeka nokufaka isandla kulokhu kuvikela.

Three: Impi Yomshoshaphansi ngaba ngomunye ubungozi obukhulu bomhlaba wonke — nginezitha ezimbili eziphakeme ngokwedlula zonke zihlome ngezihloko zezempi zenuzi ezingamashumi amathathu nantathu. Imvelo yamanje inengozi enkulu ngokwedlulele, yokuthi kunokungazinzi ngokwengeziwe okuvela kubalingisi okungebona abombuso, njengamaqembu amaphekula, ukuthola izikhali zokubhubhisa abantu abaningi. I-Russia kanye nothishanhloko be-NATO banekhono elilodwa lokubhekana nalezi zinsongo-uma benza ekhonsathi.

Four: Isikhathi esisodwa lapho ilungu le-NATO lifake khona i-Article 5 (isigatshana esithi "ukuhlaselwa koyedwa ukuhlaselwa kubo bonke" kwakuyi-United States ngemuva kokuhlaselwa kwamaphekula ngo-Sep 11, 2001. Isitha sangempela sasingeyona esinye isizwe kepha sasiyisongo esivamile ubuphekula. I-Russia iqhubekile nokuqhubekisela phambili lesi sizathu sokubambisana — impela iRussia inikeze ubuhlakani bokusebenza obusemqoka kanye nokusekelwa okuyisisekelo kokuzibandakanya kwe-post-9/11 Afghan. ICoronavirus ilingise okunye ukukhathazeka okukhulu: okwabashokobezi abanezikhali zebhayoloji futhi abazisebenzisayo. Lokhu akukwazi ukubukelwa phansi kwisimo sezulu esiphila kuso manje.

Five: Lapho iRussia iba nezitha ezingaba khona emngceleni wayo, njengoba kwenzeka ngempi yama-2020 ye-NATO, iRussia izophoqeleka kakhulu ukuba ibheke ukuzimela kanye nokwenza buthaka wentando yeningi. Lapho izakhamizi zizizwa zisongelwa, zifuna ubuholi obuqinile futhi bubavikele.

Six: Izenzo zempi zeNATO eSerbia ngaphansi kukaMongameli Clinton kanye naseLibya ngaphansi kukaMongameli Barack Obama, kanye neminyaka ecishe ibe ngamashumi amabili yempi e-Afghanistan — eyinde kunazo zonke emlandweni wethu — yayiqhutshwa kakhulu yi-US. Akukho "Russia factor" lapha, kepha lezi zingxabano zisetshenziselwa ukuphikisana ne-raison d'etre ngokuyinhloko ukubhekana neRussia.

Isikhombisa: Kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, usongo olukhulu kakhulu olukhona lokuqothulwa kwenyukliya-le nkemba yeDamocles isasibekele sonke. Njengoba i-NATO inezisekelo emazweni angamashumi amabili nesishiyagalolunye, amaningi emingceleni yaseRussia, amanye ebangeni lobuciko eSt. Ingozi yengozi noma "i-alamu yamanga" yabhalwa kaningi ngesikhathi sempi ebandayo futhi eyethusa kakhulu manje, njengoba kunikezwe ijubane leMach 5 lemicibisholo yanamuhla.

Eight: Uma nje iMelika iqhubeka nokusebenzisa cishe amaphesenti angama-70 ebhajethi yayo ebusayo kwezempi, kuzohlale kunesidingo sezitha, kungaba zangempela noma zibonwa. Abantu baseMelika banelungelo lokubuza ukuthi kungani “ukusetshenziswa kwemali” okunjalo kudingekile futhi kusiza bani ngempela? Ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwe-NATO kuza ngezindleko zezinye izinto ezibalulekile kuzwelonke. Sithola lokhu phakathi kwe-coronavirus lapho amasistimu okunakekela ezempilo entshonalanga engasekelwa kahle futhi engahlelekile. Ukunquma izindleko nezindleko ezingenasidingo ze-NATO kuzonika ithuba lokunye okubaluleke kakhulu kuzwe lonke okuhle kakhulu emphakathini waseMelika.

Nine: Sisebenzise i-NATO ukwenza ngokungathandeki, ngaphandle kwemvume yezomthetho noma yamazwe omhlaba. Izingxabano zaseMelika neRussia empeleni ezepolitiki, hhayi ezempi. Kukhalela i-diplomacy yokudala. Iqiniso liwukuthi iMelika idinga ukukhulumisana okuthe xaxa ebudlelwaneni bamanye amazwe, hhayi ithuluzi lamasosha elifushane le-NATO.

Ten: Okokugcina, imidlalo yempi eyenzeka endaweni yaseRussia — ehambisana nokuqothula izivumelwano zokulawula izingalo — inikeza usongo olukhulayo olungabhubhisa wonke umuntu, ikakhulukazi uma ukunakwa kwamanye amazwe kugxile “esitheni” esidangalisa ngokwengeziwe. I-coronavirus ijoyine uhlu lwezinsongo zomhlaba wonke ezifuna ukubambisana kunokuba ibhekane ngokuphuthumayo nangaphambilini.

Kuzobakhona ezinye izinselelo zomhlaba wonke amazwe azohlangabezana nazo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kodwa-ke, i-NATO eneminyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa ayisiyo ithuluzi lokubhekana nazo. Sekuyisikhathi sokusuka kuleli khethini lokulwa nokubumba indlela yezokuphepha yomhlaba wonke, ebheka izinsongo zanamuhla nezangakusasa.

USharon Tennison nguMongameli weCenter for Citizen Initiatives. UDavid Speedie ungumsunguli kanye noMqondisi wangaphambili walolu hlelo ngokuzibandakanya kwe-US emhlabeni wonke eMkhandlwini weCarnegie for Ethics in International Affairs. UKrishen Mehta ungumlingani omkhulu we-Global Global Justice eYale University.

Isithombe: Reuters.