I-ICBM: I-Incubating Catastrophe Beyond Measure

NguDavid Swanson, World BEYOND War, Disemba 29, 2022

Kunombono olula, othuthuke ngempumelelo kakhulu UDaniel Ellsberg. Ukuthi uyazithanda izikhali zenuzi, kholwa ukuthi ziyadingeka ngeshwa, noma ucabanga ukuthi ziyisiphukuphuku esake sachitha isenti - ngaphansi kwezigidigidi zamaRandi - kuzo, akufanele neze ucabange isidingo sokungaphezu kwama-nukes emikhumbi-ngwenya futhi. izindiza. Ukuba nazo emhlabeni futhi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uyibiza ngokuthi i-Holy Triad yezinhlobo zezikhali zenuzi noma cha, kufanele kuqondwe njengokuyisimungulu ngempela, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ucabangani ngokulayisha izindiza ezingaphansi nezindiza ezinezikhali ezanele ukuqeda yonke impilo. Umhlaba izikhathi eziningi. Ungase, njengoba ngenza, ukholelwa ukuthi cishe akukho lutho olungaba lukhuni ngaphezu kwama-nukes kuma-subs kanye nezindiza; noma ungafunga ukuthi ukuthunyelwa okunjalo kufinyelela esenzweni esihlakaniphe kunawo wonke esake sathathwa uhlobo lwabantu, noma ngamaphesenti angu-4 abantu obagxekayo, nanoma yini ephakathi. Kodwa kukhona into embi kakhulu, okufanele sonke sikwazi ukuhlangana futhi siyibone njengento eyodwa ehlakazekile kakhulu: ama-nukes emhlabeni, ama-ICBM, ama-Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.

Ama-ICBM ayahlanya ngoba iRussia iyazi ukuthi akuphi wonke ama-US, futhi okuphambene nalokho, futhi ngoba kunezinhlelo ezimbili kuphela zokuthi zisetshenziswe nini: (1) ukuqalisa ukuphela kokuphila emhlabeni, (2) ukwenza uhlanya. isinqumo esisheshayo emizuzwini embalwa ukuthi kunobufakazi obuqand' ikhanda bokuthi kukhona omunye umuntu oqale ukuphela kokuphila emhlabeni futhi wadubula ngokushesha ama-ICBMs ukuze aqiniseke ukuthi ubamba iqhaza ekubhujisweni komhlaba. Vele kunezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene zezingozi ezingenzeka, kepha uhlobo olulodwa wukwenza isinqumo esingalungile samaqiniso, sikholelwa ngamanga ukuthi omunye umuntu wethule ama-nukes aqondiswe ngqo kuma-nukes akho, futhi angatholi ngesikhathi (njengoba sekwenzekile. ) ukuthi empeleni inkinga umhlambi wamahansi noma iphutha lekhompyutha. Ngama-nukes ezindizeni nemikhumbi-ngwenya, isimo sesibili asikho ngenxa yokuthi izindiza nama-sub akusiwo amadada ahlezi, omunye umfana akazi ukuthi akuphi, ngakho-ke angacabanga ngendima yawo kulobu buhlanya obungalandela ngokukhululeka okwengeziwe.

Ngisho noma sonke sivumelana ngesidingo sokukwazi ukwenza umhlaba ungaphili izikhathi eziningi - futhi ukuvumelana nalokho kuhlanganisa isenzo esibalulekile senhliziyo enhle mayelana nokwamukela noma yini ocabanga ukuthi uyayiqonda - kufanele sikwazi ukuvumelana ngakho. Inzuzo yokuba nemizuzu embalwa eyengeziwe phakathi nokuqinisekisa ukuthi imbubhiso isivele idaliwe noma cha, ukuze ukwazi ukugwema ukuyiqala uma ingazange, kuyilapho ukwazi ukufeza isenzo esibonakala sibalulekile uma isenzo sokugula ukubamba iqhaza ngenkuthalo kukho uma sekwenzekile.

Kunjalo, ungase uhlele ukuvumela ama-ICBMs (kanye nengxenye engenhla emaphakathi nentshonalanga ye-United States) ukuba abhujiswe imicibisholo osola ukuthi iyeza, ngoba, uma uqinisile, i-United States engenhla emaphakathi nentshonalanga izobhujiswa noma ngabe uvula imicibisholo noma uyishiye phansi, futhi umhlaba wonke uzobulawa ubusika benuzi uma uqinisile noma unephutha kodwa uqhume imicibisholo. Ungashiya imishini endizayo ye-apocalypse emhlabathini futhi uthathe izinqumo zakho ngokuzola mayelana nokwethulwa kusuka kubancane nezindiza.

Kodwa lokho ngeke kusebenze. Futhi isizathu sokuthi ingasebenzi akuhlangene nokuvimbela. Ungakholelwa zonke izinhlobo zezinto mayelana nokuvimbela, kodwa awukwazi ukuthi zingaki izikhali zenuzi i-United States neRussia inazo, kanye nekhono lokuzibeka ezindizeni nasezikhunjini ezingaphansi kwamanzi, nokuthi buyini ubusika benuzi, futhi uthi noma ukuthi ama-ICBM anezela ekuvimbeleni noma ukuthi iRussia ephoqelelayo (noma i-China, noma i-Russia ne-China oyiqhubela ekubambisaneni ngokumelene nawe) ukuqhumisa imicibisholo eminingi enhla nentshonalanga ye-United States ngandlela-thile kuphazamisa ikhono leRussia lokucekela phansi lonke izwe. Umhlaba. Ukuphawula ukuthi isifunda esisodwa esinokuqhuma kwezikhali zenuzi, ngasinye izikhathi ezingamakhulukhulu lokho okwenziwa e-Hiroshima noma e-Nagasaki, kungabhubhisa yonke impilo eMhlabeni noma ngabe imikhumbi-ngwenya nezindiza bezingekho.

Cha, isizathu sokuthi ngeke kusebenze ukugcina wonke lawo ma-ICBM kodwa uhlele ukungawasebenzisi, ukuthi awukwazi ukuthola abantu ukuthi bawuthathe ngokungathi sína umsebenzi wokuwanakekela njengamanje. Uma abasebenzi bezempi ababelwe ukuba banakekele futhi baqaphe futhi bazijwayeze ukusebenzisa izinto zonke zenziwe ukuze ziqonde ukuthi azisoze zasetshenziswa - hhayi nje ukuthi i-deterrence theory ithi ngeke zisetshenziswe, kodwa empeleni azisoze zasetshenziswa - ingozi ye-apocalypse gibela amahhashi amane. Kakade, njengoba kunjalo, inani lokuphuthelwa okuseduze iphakamisa ukuthi ukugcina nje noma yiziphi izikhali zenuzi zikhona kusinikeza isikhathi esilinganiselwe sokuba inhlanhla yethu iqhubeke. Kakade, abantu ngephutha (noma okubi kakhulu) unamathisele ama-nukes angaziwa ezindizeni futhi undize uzungeze i-US ngaphandle kokutshela muntu. Kakade, ukuqapha izikhali ezinamandla kunawo wonke kuthathwa njengendlela yomsebenzi efiseleka kakhulu embuthweni wamasosha ase-US, futhi abantu abakwenzayo uthukuthele, uma kungenjalo udakiwe futhi ukukopela ezivivinyweni zabo, noma ukuthola edakiwe futhi eshayela ama-nukes ezweni lonke, nge edakiwe ephethe yalo lonke uhlelo, ingasaphathwa e-US omongameli zaphuma ezingqondweni zabo ezibuhlungu. Kakade, i-ICBMs ibhekene nayo izikhukhula izingozi. Kakade, abantu abanjalo hlala eduze kwezinto kunzima ukubanika umcabango odlulayo.

Ungenza njengeShayina futhi ugcine ama-nukes futhi ugcine imicibisholo, kodwa uwagcine ngokwehlukana, ungakulungeli ukundiza umzuzwana nje, kodwa ungaba nenkinga efanayo: akekho noyedwa ongashaya sengathi uzithatha ngokungathi sína. Uma ama-nukes engabonisi ukudayiswa ku-eBay, amathikithi okuwavakashela abengaba khona. Ngakho-ke ukukhetha ukukususa, ngaphandle kokubheka eceleni kwanoma ubani ngaphandle kwalabo abazuza ngokwezimali, noma bagcine futhi bonke batshelane ukuthi babaluleke kakhulu, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi siyakukholelwa noma cha, ukuze sibambezele usuku. ngengozi ethile eyisiphukuphuku iqeda yonke into. Lesi ngesinye sezinqumo ezibaluleke kakhulu esibhekene nazo. Akuyona into enzima. Iyona ebhekene nenkohlakalo yezimali, kodwa inkinga enkulu ukuthi akubona kuphela abantu abahlala eduze kwezinto abagwema ukucabanga ngazo. Darn eduze wonke umuntu ugwema ukucabanga ngabo. Futhi uma kukhulunywa ngazo, kusuke kunolwazi olunganembile nokuqagela, noma izeluleko eziyindida zeDolobha laseNew York ukuthi kufanele usingathe inkinga yempi yenuzi ngokuhlela ukungena endlini.

Pho, senzani? UDan Ellsberg uyabhala izincwadi futhi wenza videos. Sonke do ezingenakubalwa webinars. Ku-webinar ngayinye sitshelana ngokungapheli ukuthi kungaba yini umqondo omuhle ukuthi ithelevishini yenethiwekhi iphinde ivezwe Usuku Emva. Thina i-imeyili nefoni Congress. Sibhala futhi sibize abezindaba, bonisa, umbhikisho, yenza ubuciko kanye t-shirts, qasha amabhodi amabhodi, futhi amaphesenti amancane kakhulu abantu abanolwazi lokuthi kwenzakalani. Abantu ababili noma abathathu ngaphezulu, ngokuvamile abantu asebevele beseqenjini elincane elingafuni ukuphila kuqedwe ukucekelwa phansi kwemvelo, bafike bangafuni ukuthi kuphele ngokushesha ngokucekelwa phansi kwemvelo yenuzi. Nokho, nakhu okusha kimi okungase kuthuthukise izinombolo zethu kancane. Nakhu okungigqugquzele ukuthi ngibhale lokhu. U-Peter J. Manos ushicilele inoveli, indaba eqanjiwe yalokho okungenzeka ngumuntu oyedwa eMinot, eNyakatho Dakota, ozinikele kuma-ICBM aphikisayo.

Incwadi ibizwa Shadows. Indaba emnandi, egcwele uthando nobungane kanye nozungu. Indaba yokusangana okwesabekayo, nokho ngaphakathi, uma kungekude kakhulu, kweqiniso. Ngingathanda ukwazi ukuthi abantu baseMinot, North Dakota, nanoma ikuphi okunye emhlabeni, bacabangani ngakho. Indaba ngokwengxenye iwukuzindla ngalokho okungase kuthathe ukuze abezindaba bezinkampani benze umsebenzi owusizo. Kodwa ngezinga izincwadi zezinganekwane ezingafinyelela ngayo kubantu izincwadi ezingelona iqiniso ezingeke zikwazi, futhi zisishukumise sonke ngezindlela izincwadi ezingelona iqiniso ezingenakho, ukusungulwa kwalencwadi kungase kube impendulo yombuzo ewuphakamisayo futhi ewuphendula ngendlela ehlukile phakathi nenkambo yomlando. ukulandisa kwayo okujabulisa kakhulu.