NguWinslow Myers
Ukungezwani okwandayo e-Ukraine kuphakamisa ukukhathazeka ngokuthi "ukugqashuka komlilo" phakathi kwezikhali zenuzi ezivamile kanye namaqhinga ezingase zitholakale kuzo zonke izinhlangothi ezingxabanweni kungase kwephulwe, kube nemiphumela engalindelekile.
U-Loren Thompson uchazwe kumagazini we-Forbes (http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2014/04/24/four-ways-the-ukraine-crisis-could-escalate-to-use-of-nuclear- izikhali/) ukuthi inkinga yase-Ukraine ingahamba kanjani enuzi: ngokusebenzisa ubuhlakani obunephutha; ngokusebenzisa amaqembu aphikisayo ukuthumela izimpawu ezixubile komunye nomunye; ngokuhlulwa okuzayo kuzo zombili izinhlangothi; noma ngokuhlukaniswa komyalo enkundleni yempi.
Ngendlela elula kakhulu, isimo se-Ukraine esiyinkimbinkimbi sigxila ekuchazeni okungqubuzanayo kanye nezinhlelo zenani: ku-Putin, i-NATO-izing yase-Ukraine yayihlambalaza izwe laseRussia elingenakuphikiswa, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa umlando wokuhlasela okuphindaphindiwe kweRussia. ngamabutho angaphandle. Ngokombono waseNtshonalanga, i-Ukraine yayinelungelo njengesizwe esizimele ukujoyina i-NATO futhi ijabulele ukuvikelwa kwayo, nakuba le nkinga ibuza umbuzo wokuthi kungani kusene-NATO nhlobo uma kubhekwa ukususwa kwethu empini ebandayo-impi yangaphambili yamakhaza. Ingabe i-NATO iyisivikelo ngokumelene nombuso kaPutin ovuselelwe waseRussia, noma ingabe ukweqisa kwe-NATO kuze kufike emingceleni yaseRussia kwakuyimbangela yokuqala yempendulo yakhe ye-paranoid?
Nakuba ubukhosi kanye nentando yeningi kuyizimiso ezibalulekile zezombusazwe, umuntu kufanele ahlehlise isimo sase-Ukraine ukuze aqale ukuqonda, uma engazwelani, nokuthumela kukaPutin ngobuso. Isibonelo esihlanekezelwe esifaneleka kakhulu sesivele senzeka kudala ngo-1962. Impela yi-Cuban Missile Crisis, lapho i-United States yezwa ukuthi “indawo yayo yethonya” ingena ngendlela engamukelekile. Eminyakeni engu-53 kamuva umphakathi womhlaba wonke ubonakala ungafundile kangako ngokuvela ekubhujisweni.
Inkinga yase-Ukraine iyisibonelo esifundisayo sokuthi kungani ukubambezeleka kwamazwe amakhulu ukuhlangabezana nezibopho zawo ngaphansi kweSivumelwano Sokungabhebhetheki KweNuclear kungase kuphele esimweni esibi kakhulu. Osomaqhinga bethu abakaqali ukuqonda ukuthi kungakanani ukuba khona kwezikhali eziqeda umhlaba kuyihlela kabusha indima yamasosha ekuxazululeni izingxabano zamaplanethi.
Kuyasiza ngalokhu kumiswa kabusha ukuvuma ukuvela kwebhayoloji yabesilisa (owesifazane naye, kodwa ikakhulukazi owesilisa) ekungqubuzaneni—ukulwa kwethu noma ukuphaphama kwendiza. Izikhulu zikahulumeni kanye nabahlaziyi bemithombo yezindaba basinikeza isithunzi lesi sikhundla noma leso ngezizathu ezishiwo ngokhulumelazwe, kodwa ngaphansi kwazo zonke lezi zinkulumo sisesendaweni yesikole, sishaya izifuba futhi sibhonga njengama-gorilla.
Kuwukubukela phansi okukhulu ukusho ukuthi kudingeka umfuziselo omusha wobudoda. Esidala, ngiyindoda ngoba ngivikela isikhundla sami, indawo yami. Kokusha, ngivikela ukuphila okuqhubekayo emhlabeni wonke. Esikhathini esidala, ngithembekile ngoba ngisekela izinsongo zami ngama-megatons wamandla acekela phansi (yize ekugcineni ezilimazayo). Kokusha, ngiyavuma ukuthi ukuqina kwezinkolelo zami kungase kugcine kuwuqeda umhlaba. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi okunye ukufa kwabantu abaningi, ngibheka ukubuyisana.
Ingabe ushintsho olukhulu kangaka lungenzeka kulesi simo samanje sobudlova bamadoda obusa kakhulu imithombo yezindaba yomhlaba, ezemidlalo nemidlalo yamavidiyo, kanye nonxiwankulu olunokuncintisana ngokweqile, ngokuvamile olukhohlakele? Kepha iqiniso elizayo lezinkinga eziningi zeMissile yaseCuba, kucatshangwa ukuthi umhlaba uyasinda kuzo, kuzocindezela amadoda ukuthi ande aze afike ezingeni leplanethi ukuthi kusho ukuthini ukuba ngumnqobi, ukuba umvikeli hhayi womndeni noma wesizwe kuphela, kodwa iplanethi, ikhaya lakho konke esabelana ngakho futhi esikwazisayo.
Akungathi asikho isibonelo salo mshophi oqhamukayo wobudoda. Cabanga uGandhi kanye neNkosi. Ingabe babenama-wimpy noma bebuthakathaka? Nakancane. Amandla okwandisa ukuhlonza ukuze afake ukunakekela umhlaba wonke kanye naso sonke isintu angaphakathi kwethu sonke, silindele amathuba okwenza isimo sokudala.
Isibonelo esisodwa esingavezwanga kahle sepharadigm entsha evela kungxabano yokudala nendala iRotary. I-Rotary yaqalwa ngosomabhizinisi. Ibhizinisi ngokwemvelo liyaqhudelana—futhi ngokuvamile lilondoloza ezombusazwe ngenxa yokuthi izimakethe zidinga uzinzo kwezombusazwe—kodwa izindinganiso ze-Rotary zedlula izici zesikole zokuncintisana, ngokuvuna ubulungisa, ubungane, kanye nezindinganiso eziphakeme zokuziphatha ezihlanganisa ukubuza umbuzo owodwa obonisa ukuhlonza iplanethi: ingabe a Isinyathelo esinikezwayo sizozuzisa bonke abathintekayo? I-Rotary inamalungu angaphezu kwesigidi esingu-1.2 emaqenjini angaphezu kuka-32,000 phakathi kwamazwe angu-200 nezindawo zezwe. Bathathe umsebenzi omkhulu ngokungavamile, obonakala ungenakwenzeka wokuqeda uvendle emhlabeni, futhi sebesondele kakhulu empumelelweni. Mhlawumbe izinhlangano ezifana ne-Rotary zizoba yizinkundla zokuzivocavoca lapho i-paradigm entsha yamadoda izobambana nendala iphelelwe yisikhathi. Yini iRotary engase ikwazi ukuyenza uma iqunga isibindi sokuqeda impi?
UWinslow Myers ungumbhali wencwadi ethi “Living Beyond War: A Citizen’s Guide,” futhi ukhonza ku-Advisory Board of the War Prevention Initiative.
