Indlela INtshonalanga Yavula Indlela Yezinsongo Zenuzi ZaseRussia Phezu kwe-Ukraine

ngoMilan Rai, Ukuthula Izindaba, Mashi 4, 2022

Phezu kokwesaba nokwethuka okubangelwa ukuhlasela kwamanje kweRussia e-Ukraine, abaningi baye bashaqeka futhi bethuswa amazwi nezenzo zikamongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin zakamuva mayelana nezikhali zenuzi.

UJens Stoltenberg, unobhala-jikelele wenhlangano ye-NATO ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi, uye esibizwa Izinyathelo zakamuva zenuzi zaseRussia phezu kwe-Ukraine 'ngokungaphenduli' kanye 'nezinkulumo eziyingozi'. Ilungu lePhalamende laseBrithani, uTobias Ellwood, ongusihlalo wekomidi elikhethiwe lezokuvikela le-house of commons, waxwayiswa (futhi ngomhla zingama-27 kuFebhuwari) ukuthi umongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin 'angasebenzisa izikhali zenuzi e-Ukraine'. Usihlalo weConservative wekomidi elikhethiwe lezindaba zangaphandle, uTom Tugendhat, ungeze ngo-28 February: 'akunakwenzeka ukuthi umyalelo wezempi waseRussia wokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi enkundleni yempi unganikezwa.'

Ekupheleni kwezinto, uStephen Walt, uprofesa wobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe eHarvard's Kennedy School of Government, utshele the New York Times: 'Amathuba ami okufa empini yenuzi asazwakala emancane ngendlela engenakulinganiswa, ngisho noma makhulu kunayizolo.'

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi mangakanani noma mancane kangakanani amathuba empi yenuzi, izinsongo zenuzi zaseRussia ziyaphazamisa futhi akukho emthethweni; zifana nobuphekula benuzi.

Ngeshwa, lezi akuzona izinsongo ezinjalo zokuqala ezibonwe umhlaba. Izinsongo zenuzi sezenziwe ngaphambili, okuhlanganisa - kunzima njengoba kungase kube ukukholelwa - yi-US kanye neBrithani.

Izindlela ezimbili eziyisisekelo

Kunezindlela ezimbili eziyisisekelo ongakhipha ngazo usongo lwenuzi: ngamazwi akho noma ngezenzo zakho (okwenzayo ngezikhali zenuzi).

Uhulumeni waseRussia wenze zombili izinhlobo zezimpawu ezinsukwini ezimbalwa namaviki ambalwa edlule. UPutin wenze izinkulumo ezisabisayo futhi usenyakazile futhi wahlanganisa izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia.

Ake sicacise, uPutin usevele usebenzisa Izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia.

Umkhulumeli wezempi waseMelika uDaniel Ellsberg uveze ukuthi izikhali zenuzi esetshenziswa lapho izinsongo ezinjalo zenziwa, ngendlela 'esetshenziswa ngayo isibhamu lapho usikhomba ekhanda lomuntu lapho ubhekene ngqo, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi isibhamu sikhishiwe noma cha'.

Ngezansi leyo ngcaphuno kumongo. Ellsberg uthi ukuthi izinsongo zenuzi zenziwe izikhathi eziningi ngaphambili - yi-US:

'Umbono ovamile cishe kubo bonke abantu baseMelika wokuthi "akukho zikhali zenuzi ezike zasetshenziswa kusukela eNagasaki" uyiphutha. Akunjalo ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zase-US zisanda kunqwabelana phakathi neminyaka edlule - sinezingaphezu kuka-30,000 zazo manje, ngemuva kokudiliza izinkulungwane eziningi eziphelelwe yisikhathi - ezingasetshenziswanga futhi ezingasetshenziswa, ngaphandle komsebenzi owodwa wokuvimbela ukusetshenziswa kwazo ngokumelene nathi. AmaSoviet. Ngokuphindaphindiwe, ngokuvamile ekusithekeni okuvela emphakathini waseMelika, izikhali zenuzi zase-US ziye zasetshenziswa, ngezinhloso ezihluke kakhulu: ngendlela eqondile isibhamu esisetshenziswa ngayo lapho usikhomba ekhanda lomuntu lapho ubhekene ngqo, noma ngabe isibhamu noma cha. uyadonswa.'

'Izikhali zenuzi zase-US zisetshenziselwe izinjongo ezihluke kakhulu: ngendlela eqondile isibhamu esisetshenziswa ngayo lapho usikhomba ekhanda lomuntu lapho nibhekana ngqo, noma ngabe isibhamu sikhishiwe noma cha.'

U-Ellsberg unikeze uhlu lwezinsongo zenuzi eziyi-12 zase-US, kusukela ngo-1948 kuya ku-1981. (Wayebhala ngo-1981.) Uhlu lunganwetshwa namuhla. Ezinye izibonelo zakamuva zanikezwa ku I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists ngo-2006. Isihloko sixoxwa ngokukhululekile e-US kunase-UK. Ngisho umnyango wezwe waseMelika uhlu izibonelo ezithile yalokho ekubiza ngokuthi 'imizamo ye-US yokusebenzisa usongo lwempi yenuzi ukuze kuzuzwe izinhloso zezokuxhumana'. Enye yezincwadi zakamuva ezikhuluma ngale ndaba UJoseph Gersonka- Umbuso kanye Nebhomu: I-US Izisebenzisa Kanjani Izikhali Zenuzi Ukubusa Umhlaba (Pluto, 2007).

Usongo lwenuzi lukaPutin

Uma sibuyela esikhathini samanje, umongameli uPutin wathi ngomhla zingama-24 kuNhlolanja, enkulumweni yakhe ememezela ukuhlasela:

'Manje ngithanda ukusho into ebaluleke kakhulu kulabo abangase balingeke ukuthi bagxambukele kulezi zigameko ngaphandle. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ubani ozama ukuma endleleni yethu noma ngaphezu kwalokho adale izinsongo zezwe lethu nabantu bakithi, kufanele bazi ukuthi iRussia izosabela ngokushesha, futhi imiphumela iyoba ngendlela ongakaze uyibone emlandweni wakho wonke.'

Lokhu kwafundwa abaningi, ngokufanelekile, njengosongo lwenuzi.

Putin qhubekile:

'Mayelana nezindaba zezempi, ngisho nangemva kokuhlakazwa kwe-USSR futhi ilahlekelwe ingxenye enkulu yamakhono ayo, iRussia yanamuhla isalokhu ingesinye sezifundazwe ezinamandla kakhulu zenuzi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunenzuzo ethile ezikhalini eziningana ezisezingeni eliphezulu. Kulo mongo, akumele kube nokungabaza kunoma ngubani ukuthi noma yimuphi umuntu ongase ahlasele uzobhekana nokunqotshwa kanye nemiphumela esabekayo uma ehlasela izwe lethu ngokuqondile.'

Esigabeni sokuqala, usongo lwenuzi lwalubhekene nalabo 'abaphazamisa' ukuhlasela. Kulesi sigaba sesibili, usongo lwenuzi kuthiwa lubhekene 'nabahlaseli' 'abahlasela izwe lethu ngokuqondile'. Uma sinquma le nkulumo-ze, u-Putin cishe usongela lapho ngokusebenzisa iBhomu kunoma yimaphi amabutho angaphandle 'ahlasela ngokuqondile' amayunithi aseRussia abandakanyeka ekuhlaselweni.

Ngakho-ke zombili izingcaphuno zingasho into efanayo: 'Uma imibuso yaseNtshonalanga ihileleka kwezempi futhi idale izinkinga zokuhlasela kwethu i-Ukraine, singase sisebenzise izikhali zenuzi, senze "imiphumela enjengale ongakaze uyibone emlandweni wakho wonke".'

Usongo lwenuzi lukaGeorge HW Bush

Yize lolu hlobo lolimi olusezingeni eliphezulu selumataniswa nowayengumengameli waseMelika uDonald Trump, aluhlukile kakhulu kulolo olwalusetshenziswa umengameli waseMelika uGeorge HW Bush.

NgoJanuwari 1991, uBush wakhipha usongo lwenuzi e-Iraq ngaphambi kweMpi YeGulf ka-1991. Ubhale umyalezo owethulwe ngesandla ngunobhala wezwe laseMelika uJames Baker kungqongqoshe wezangaphandle wase-Iraq, uTariq Aziz. Kweyakhe Incwadi, Bush wabhala kumholi wase-Iraq uSaddam Hussein:

'Mangisho futhi ukuthi i-United States ngeke ikubekezelele ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zamakhemikhali noma zebhayoloji noma ukucekelwa phansi kwezizinda zikawoyela zaseKuwait. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uzobhekana ngqo nezenzo zobuphekula ezibhekiswe kunoma yiliphi ilungu lomfelandawonye. Abantu baseMelika bazofuna impendulo enamandla kakhulu. Wena kanye nezwe lakini nizokhokha inani elibi uma ni-oda izenzo zokungalaleli zalolu hlobo.'

Baker ungeze isixwayiso ngomlomo. Uma i-Iraq isebenzisa izikhali zamakhemikhali noma zebhayoloji ngokumelene namasosha ahlaselayo ase-US, 'Abantu baseMelika bazofuna impindiselo. Futhi sinazo izindlela zokukuphoqa…. [T]kwakhe akulona usongo, kuyisithembiso.' Umbhaki wahamba ukuyosho ukuthi, uma izikhali ezinjalo zisetshenziswa, inhloso yase-US 'kungeke kube ukukhululwa kwe-Kuwait, kodwa ukuqedwa kombuso wamanje wase-Iraqi'. (U-Aziz wenqabile ukuthatha incwadi.)

Usongo lwenuzi lwaseMelika e-Iraq ngoJanuwari 1991 lunokufana okuthile nosongo lukaPutin lwango-2022.

Kuzo zombili izimo, usongo lwaluxhunywe emkhankasweni othile wezempi futhi, ngomqondo othile, kwakuyihawu lenuzi.

Odabeni lwase-Iraq, usongo lukaBush lwenuzi lwaluqondiswe ngqo ukuvimbela ukusetshenziswa kwezinhlobo ezithile zezikhali (zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji) kanye nezinhlobo ezithile zezenzo zase-Iraqi (ubuphekula, ukucekelwa phansi kwezizinda zikawoyela zaseKuwait).

Namuhla, usongo lukaPutin aluqondile kangako. UMatthew Harries webutho laseBrithani i-RUSI thinktank, utshele the Guardian ukuthi izitatimende zikaPutin, okokuqala, ukwesaba okulula: 'singakulimaza, futhi ukulwa nathi kuyingozi'. Baphinde baba yisikhumbuzo kwabaseNtshonalanga ukuthi bangahambi kakhulu beseka uhulumeni wase-Ukraine. U-Harries uthe: 'Kungase kube iRussia ihlela ukwanda okunonya e-Ukraine futhi lesi yisixwayiso "sokungangeni" esibhekiswe emazweni aseNtshonalanga.' Kulokhu, usongo lwenuzi luyisihlangu sokuvikela amabutho ahlaselayo ezikhalini ze-NATO ngokujwayelekile, hhayi uhlobo oluthile lwesikhali.

'Kusemthethweni futhi kunengqondo'

Lapho umbuzo wokuba semthethweni kwezikhali zenuzi ufika phambi kweNkantolo Yomhlaba ngo-1996, usongo lwenuzi lwase-US e-Iraq ngo-1991 lwashiwo ngelinye lamajaji embonweni walo obhaliwe. Ijaji leNkantolo Yomhlaba uStephen Schwebel (waseMelika) wabhala ukuthi usongo lwenuzi lukaBush/Baker, kanye nempumelelo yalo, lwabonisa ukuthi, 'kwezinye izimo, usongo lokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi - inqobo nje uma ziseyizikhali ezingavinjelwe umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe - kungaba kokubili okusemthethweni futhi okunengqondo.'

USchwebel waphikisa ngokuthi, ngenxa yokuthi i-Iraq ayizange isebenzise izikhali zamakhemikhali noma zebhayoloji ngemuva kokuthola usongo lwenuzi lukaBush/Baker, ngokusobala. ngoba ithole lo mlayezo, usongo lwenuzi kwakuyinto Enhle:

'Ngakho-ke kunobufakazi obuqand' ikhanda obukhomba ukuthi umhlaseli wayevinjiwe noma wayenqatshelwe ukusebenzisa izikhali ezingagunyaziwe zokucekela phansi amabutho kanye namazwe alungele ukulwa nodlame lwawo ngesikhathi kubizelwa iNhlangano Yezizwe ngalokho umhlukumezi akubona kuwusongo kuye. sebenzisa izikhali zenuzi ngokumelene nayo uma iqala ukusebenzisa izikhali ezibhubhisayo ngokumelene namandla omfelandawonye. Ingabe kungagcinwa ngempela ukuthi izibalo zikaMnu. Baker - futhi ngokusobala ziphumelele - zazingekho emthethweni? Impela izimiso zoMqulu weZizwe Ezihlangene zasekelwa kunokuba zeqiwe usongo.'

Kungase kube nejaji laseRussia, esikhathini esithile esizayo, eliphikisa ukuthi usongo lukaPutin lwenuzi luphinde 'lwasekela esikhundleni sokweqa' izimiso ze-UN Charter (kanye nawo wonke umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe) ngoba lwalusebenza kahle 'ekuvimbeni' ukuphazanyiswa kwe-NATO. .

E-Taiwan, 1955

Esinye isibonelo sosongo lwenuzi lwase-US olukhunjulwa eWashington DC 'njengolusebenza kahle' lwafika ngo-1955, phezu kweTaiwan.

Phakathi Nenhlekelele Yokuqala YaseTaiwan Strait, eyaqala ngoSepthemba 1954, iChinese Communist People's Liberation Army (PLA) yanisa umlilo wezikhali eziqhingini zaseQuemoy naseMatsu (ezibuswa uhulumeni waseTaiwan iGuomindang/KMT). Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa kuqale ukuqhuma kwamabhomu, izikhulu zabasebenzi ezihlangene zase-US zancoma ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi ngokumelene neChina ukuphendula. Izinyanga ezithile, leyo yahlala iyingxoxo yangasese, uma ibalulekile.

I-PLA yaqhubeka nemisebenzi yezempi. (Iziqhingi ezithintekayo ziseduze kakhulu nezwekazi. Enye ingamakhilomitha ayi-10 nje ukusuka ogwini ukusuka eShayina kuyilapho ingaphezu kwamamayela ayi-100 ukusuka esiqhingini esikhulu sase-Taiwan.) I-KMT iphinde yenza imisebenzi yezempi ezwenikazi.

Ngomhla ziyi-15 kuNdasa 1955, unobhala wezwe laseMelika uJohn Foster Dulles utshele isithangami sabezindaba sokuthi i-US ingase ingenelele ezingxabanweni zaseTaiwan ngezikhali zenuzi: 'izikhali ze-athomu ezincane... zinikeza ithuba lokunqoba enkundleni yempi ngaphandle kokulimaza izakhamuzi'.

Lo mlayezo waqiniswa ngumongameli waseMelika ngosuku olulandelayo. UDwight D Eisenhower utshele abezindaba ukuthi, kunoma yikuphi ukulwa, 'lapho lezi zinto [izikhali zenuzi] zisetshenziselwa izinjongo zezempi kanye nezinjongo zezempi eziqinile, angisiboni isizathu sokuthi kungani kungafanele zisetshenziswe njengoba nje ubungasebenzisa inhlamvu noma enye into. '.

Ngosuku olulandelayo, iphini likamongameli uRichard Nixon wathi: 'Iziqhumane ze-athomu zamaqhinga sezivamile futhi zizosetshenziswa ngokumelene nokuhlosiwe kwanoma yimaphi amandla anolaka' e-Pacific.

U-Eisenhower wabuya ngakusasa nolimi 'lwenhlamvu' olwengeziwe: impi yenuzi elinganiselwe yayiyisu elisha lenuzi lapho 'umndeni omusha walokho okubizwa ngezikhali zenuzi zamaqhinga noma zezempi' kungaba 'esetshenziswa njengezinhlamvu'.

Lezi kwakuyizinsongo zenuzi zomphakathi ngokumelene ne-China, okwakungeyona izwe lenuzi. (I-China ayizange ihlole ibhomu layo lokuqala lenuzi kuze kube yi-1964.)

Ngokuyimfihlo, amasosha ase-US ekhethiwe okuhlosiwe kwenyukliya okuhlanganisa imigwaqo, imizila yezitimela nezinkundla zezindiza eduze nogu oluseningizimu yeShayina kanye nezikhali zenuzi zase-US zithunyelwe endaweni yase-US e-Okinawa, e-Japan. Ibutho lase-US lilungiselele ukuphambukisa izikhali zenuzi ziye eTaiwan.

I-China yayeka ukuhlasela iziqhingi zaseQuemoy naseMatsu ngomhlaka-1 Meyi 1955.

Ekusungulweni kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US, zonke lezi zinsongo zenuzi ngokumelene neChina zibonakala njengokusetshenziswa ngempumelelo kwezikhali zenuzi zase-US

NgoJanuwari 1957, uDulles wagubha esidlangalaleni ukusebenza kwezinsongo zenuzi zase-US ngokumelene neChina. Yena utshele Ukuphila ukuthi ukusongela kwe-US ngokuqhumisa izikhali zenuzi eChina kwakulethe abaholi bayo etafuleni lezingxoxo eKorea. Uthe abaphathi bavimbele iChina ukuthi ithumele amasosha eVietnam ngokuthumela izindiza ezimbili zase-US ezihlome ngezikhali zenuzi olwandle olwandle lwaseSouth China ngo-1954. UDulles wengeza ngokuthi izinsongo ezifanayo zokuhlasela iChina ngezikhali zenuzi 'zagcina zabamisa eFormosa' (Taiwan). ).

Ekusungulweni kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US, zonke lezi zinsongo zenuzi ngokumelene neChina zibonakala njengokusebenzisa ngempumelelo izikhali zenuzi zase-US, izibonelo eziphumelelayo zokuxhashazwa kwenuzi (igama elihloniphekile lithi 'idiplomacy ye-athomu').

Lezi ngezinye zezindlela amazwe aseNtshonalanga avule indlela ezinsongweni zenuzi zikaPutin namuhla.

(Entsha, eyethusayo, Imininingwane mayelana nokusetshenziswa eduze kwezikhali zenuzi ku-Second Straits Crisis ngo-1958 embule nguDaniel Ellsberg ngo-2021. He tweeted ngaleso sikhathi: 'Qaphela ku-@JoeBiden: funda kulo mlando oyimfihlo, futhi ungaphindi lobu hlanya.')

Hardware

Ungenza futhi izinsongo zenuzi ngaphandle kwamagama, ngalokho okwenzayo ngezikhali ngokwazo. Ngokuzisondeza eduze nengxabano, noma ngokukhuphula izinga lokuxwayisa ngezikhali zenuzi, noma ngokwenza izivivinyo zezikhali zenuzi, umbuso ungathumela isignali yenuzi ngempumelelo; yenza usongo lwenuzi.

UPutin usethuthe izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia, wazibeka esicongweni, futhi wavula namathuba okuthi uzozithumela eBelarus. Omakhelwane baseBelarus i-Ukraine, bekuyisizinda sokwethulwa kwamasosha asenyakatho ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, futhi manje isithumele amasosha ayo ukuthi ajoyine ibutho laseRussia.

Iqembu lochwepheshe wabhala ku I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists ngo-16 February, ngaphambi kokuhlasela kabusha kweRussia:

'NgoFebhuwari, izithombe zemithombo evulekile yesakhiwo saseRussia zaqinisekisa ukuqoqwa kwemicibisholo yebanga elifushane i-Iskander, ukubekwa kwemicibisholo ecitshwayo eyethulwe phansi engu-9M729 eKaliningrad, kanye nokunyakaza kwemicibisholo yase-Khinzal eyethulwe emoyeni ukuya emngceleni wase-Ukraine. Sekukonke, le micibisholo iyakwazi ukushaya ijule eYurophu futhi isongele izinhloko-dolobha zamazwe amaningana angamalungu e-NATO. Izikhali ezicitshwayo zaseRussia azihloselwe ukusetshenziswa ngokumelene ne-Ukraine, kodwa kunalokho ukulwa nanoma yimiphi imizamo ye-NATO yokungenelela emcabangweni waseRussia "eduze naphesheya."'

Imicibisholo ye-Iskander-M ye-road-mobile, ibanga elifushane (amamayela angu-300) ingathwala ama-warheads avamile noma enuzi. Atshalwe esifundazweni saseRussia saseKaliningrad, ePoland engumakhelwane, cishe amakhilomitha angama-200 ukusuka enyakatho ye-Ukraine, kusukela 2018. IRussia izichaze ngokuthi isibali kumasistimu e-missile ase-US asetshenziswe eMpumalanga Yurophu. Kubikwa ukuthi abakwa-Iskander-Ms bahlanganiswe futhi bafakwa ukuqapha njengoba kuqhubeka lokhu kuhlasela kwakamuva.

I-9M729 cruise cruise missile ('Screwdriver' to NATO) kuthiwa amasosha aseRussia anebanga elingamamayela angu-300 kuphela. Abahlaziyi baseNtshonalanga Kholwa inobubanzi obuphakathi kwamamayela angu-300 no-3,400. I-9M729 ingathwala izikhali zenuzi. Ngokwemibiko, le micibisholo iphinde yabekwa esifundazweni saseKaliningard, emngceleni wePoland. Yonke iNtshonalanga Yurophu, kuhlanganise ne-UK, ingase ishaywe yile micibisholo, uma abahlaziyi baseNtshonalanga beqinisile mayelana nobubanzi be-9M729.

Idatha ye-Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ('I-Dagger') iwuhambo olujutshwe ngomoya olwethulwe emoyeni olunobubanzi obungamakhilomitha angu-1,240. Ingaphatha izikhali zenuzi, i-500kt warhead enamandla izikhathi eziningi kunebhomu laseHiroshima. Idizayinelwe ukuthi isetshenziswe ngokumelene 'nemigomo enenani eliphezulu'. Umcibisholo kwaba ithunyelwe ukuya eKaliningrad (futhi, enomngcele onelungu le-NATO, ePoland) ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari.

Nge-Iskander-Nks, izikhali zase zikhona, izinga labo lokuxwayisa liye laphakanyiswa futhi base bekulungele ukusebenza.

U-Putin wabe esephakamisa izinga lokuxwayisa konke Izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia. Ngomhla zingama-27 kuFebhuwari, uPutin wathi:

'Izikhulu eziphezulu zamazwe ahamba phambili e-NATO nazo zivumela izitatimende ezinonya ngokumelene nezwe lethu, ngakho-ke ngiyala ungqongqoshe wezokuvikela kanye nenduna yabasebenzi jikelele [yamasosha ahlomile aseRussia] ukuthi badlulisele amabutho okuvimbela amasosha aseRussia ngendlela ekhethekile. ngomsebenzi wokulwa.'

(umkhulumeli we-Kremlin uDmitry Peskov kamuva kucacisiwe ukuthi 'isikhulu esiphezulu' okukhulunywa ngaso kwakungunobhala wezangaphandle waseBrithani uLiz Truss, owayexwayise ngokuthi impi yase-Ukraine ingase ibangele 'izingxabano' kanye nokungqubuzana phakathi kwe-NATO neRussia.)

Matthew Kroenig, isazi senuzi e-Atlantic Council, utshele the Izikhathi Zezezimali: 'Leli iqhinga lezempi lase-Russia lokuhlehlisa ulaka oluvamile ngezinsongo zenuzi, noma lokho okwaziwa ngokuthi "isu lokwehliswa kwesisindo". Umlayezo oya entshonalanga, i-Nato kanye ne-US uthi, "Ningazibandakanyi noma singakhuphulela izinto ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu".'

Ochwepheshe badidwe ibinzana elithi 'indlela ekhethekile yomsebenzi wokulwa' njengoba linjalo hhayi ingxenye yemfundiso yenuzi yaseRussia. Ayinayo incazelo yezempi ethile, ngamanye amazwi, ngakho-ke akucaci kahle ukuthi isho ukuthini, ngaphandle kokubeka izikhali zenuzi kolunye uhlobo lokuqapha okuphezulu.

Umyalo kaPutin kwaba 'umyalo wokuqala' kunokuba ucuphe ukulungiselela isiteleka, ngokusho kuka-Pavel Podvig, omunye wochwepheshe abaphezulu emhlabeni ngezikhali zenuzi zaseRussia (kanye nososayensi e-UN Institute for Disarmament Research e-Geneva). I-Podvig wachaza: 'Njengoba ngiqonda indlela uhlelo olusebenza ngayo, ngesikhathi sokuthula alukwazi ukudlulisa ngokoqobo umyalo wokuqalisa, njengokungathi amasekhethi “anqanyuliwe”.' Lokho izindlela 'awukwazi ukudlulisa isignali ngokomzimba noma ufuna. Noma ungacindezela inkinobho, akukho okwenzekayo.' Manje, i-circuitry ixhunyiwe, 'ngakho-ke i-oda lokuqalisa lingahamba ngokusebenzisa uma ikhishiwe'.

'Ukuxhuma i-circuitry' kusho nokuthi izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia manje sezingaba khona umkhankaso ngisho noma u-Putin ngokwakhe ebulawa noma engenakufinyelelwa - kodwa lokho kungenzeka kuphela uma kutholakala ukuqhuma kwezikhali zenuzi endaweni yaseRussia, ngokusho kukaPodvig.

Phela, inhlolovo eBelarus ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari evula umnyango ukuhambisa izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia eduze nase-Ukraine, ngokuzimisa emhlabathini waseBelorussia okokuqala kusukela ngo-1994.

'Ukwakha inhlonipho efanele'

Kokubili ukusondeza izikhali zenuzi eduze nengxabano kanye nokwenyusa izinga lokuxwayisa ngenuzi kusetshenziselwe ukukhombisa izinsongo zenuzi amashumi amaningi eminyaka.

Isibonelo, ngesikhathi sempi yeBrithani ne-Indonesia (1963 - 1966), eyaziwa lapha ngokuthi 'i-Malaysian Confrontation', i-UK yathumela amabhomu enuzi abalulekile, izingxenye zamandla 'e-V-bomber' avimbela amandla enyukliya. Manje sesiyazi ukuthi izinhlelo zezempi zazihilela kuphela amabhomu kaVictor noma amaVulcan athwala futhi awisa amabhomu avamile. Nokho, ngenxa yokuthi babeyingxenye yebutho lenuzi elinamandla, babephethe usongo lwenuzi.

Ku-an I-RAF Historical Society Journal isihloko esikhuluma ngale nhlekelele, isazi-mlando sezempi kanye nomshayeli wendiza we-RAF u-Humphrey Wynn ubhala:

'Nakuba lawa ma-V-bhombers atshalwe ngendlela evamile akungabazeki ukuthi ukuba khona kwawo kube nomthelela ongemuhle. Njengama-B-29 i-United States eyawathumela eYurophu ngesikhathi senhlekelele yaseBerlin (1948-49), babaziwa ngokuthi “banamandla enuzi”, ukusebenzisa igama elilula laseMelika, njengoba kwakunjalo nabakwaCanberra base-Near. I-East Air Force kanye ne-RAF Germany.'

Kwabangaphakathi, 'ukuvimbela izikhali zenuzi' kufaka phakathi ukwethusa (noma 'ukudala inhlonipho' phakathi) kwabomdabu.

Ukuze kucace, i-RAF yayike yazungeza amabhomu e-V eSingapore ngaphambili, kodwa phakathi nale mpi, agcinwa ngaphezu kwesikhathi sawo esivamile. Isikhulu sezindiza ze-RAF uDavid Lee ubhala emlandweni wakhe we-RAF e-Asia:

'ulwazi lwamandla e-RAF nekhono lwakha inhlonipho eqotho kubaholi base-Indonesia, kanye ukuvimbela umphumela we-RAF air defense fighters, amabhomu alula kanye nama-V-bombers avela ku-Bomber Command wawuphelele.' (UDavid Lee, Ngasempumalanga: Umlando we-RAF eMpumalanga Ekude, 1945 - 1970, London: HMSO, 1984, p213, kugcizelelwe)

Siyabona ukuthi, kubantu bangaphakathi, 'ukuvinjelwa kwezikhali zenuzi' kuhlanganisa ukwethusa (noma 'ukudala inhlonipho eqotho') kubantu bomdabu - kulokhu, ngakolunye uhlangothi lomhlaba oluvela eBrithani.

Akudingeki ukuthi kuthiwe i-Indonesia, ngesikhathi se-Confrontation, njenganamuhla, izwe elingelona izikhali zenuzi.

Inkulumo kaPutin yokubeka amabutho 'okuvimbela' eRussia namuhla inencazelo efanayo mayelana 'nokuvimbela = ukwesabisa'.

Ungase uzibuze ukuthi ingabe abakwaVictor kanye namaVulcans bathunyelwe eSingapore ngezikhali ezijwayelekile nje. Lokho bekungeke kuthinte isignali enamandla yenuzi ethunyelwe yilawa mabhomu enuzi, njengoba abantu base-Indonesia kwakungafanele bazi ukuthi baphethe malini. Ungathumela umkhumbi-ngwenya we-Trident oLwandle Olumnyama namuhla futhi, noma wawungenalutho ngokuphelele kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lokuqhuma, ungahunyushwa njengosongo lwenuzi ngokumelene neCrimea namabutho aseRussia ngokubanzi.

Njengoba kwenzeka, undunankulu waseBrithani uHarold Macmillan wayenakho kugunyaziwe ukugcinwa kwezikhali zenuzi e-RAF Tengah e-Singapore ngo-1962. Isikhali senuzi esiwubuqili seNtshebe Ebomvu sandiza sayiswa eTengah ngo-1960 kanye nezintshebe ezibomvu ezingama-48 zangempela. ithunyelwe khona ngo-1962. Ngakho amabhomu enuzi ayetholakala endaweni phakathi nempi ne-Indonesia kusukela ngo-1963 kuya ku-1966. (Intshebe Ebomvu ayizange ihoxiswe kwaze kwaba ngo-1971, lapho iBrithani ihoxisa ukuba khona kwezempi eSingapore naseMalaysia ngokuphelele.)

Ukusuka eSingapore kuya eKaliningrad

Kukhona ukufana phakathi kweBrithani nokugcina ama-V-bhombers eSingapore ngesikhathi sempi ne-Indonesia neRussia ithumela imicibisholo ye-9M729 cruise futhi Khinzal imicibisholo eyethulwe emoyeni eya eKaliningrad ngesikhathi senhlekelele yase-Ukraine yamanje.

Kuzo zombili izimo, izwe lezikhali zenuzi lizama ukwesabisa abamelene naso ngokuthi kungenzeka kunyuke izikhali zenuzi.

Lokhu ubuxhwanguxhwangu benuzi. Kuwuhlobo lobuphekula benuzi.

Ziningi ezinye izibonelo zokusatshalaliswa kwezikhali zenuzi ezingashiwo. Kunalokho, asidlulele 'kusexwayiso senuzi njengosongo lwenuzi'.

Amacala amabili ayingozi kakhulu kulokhu avela phakathi nempi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi yango-1973.

Lapho u-Israyeli esaba ukuthi igagasi lempi lalizolwa naye, kwaba kufakwe imicibisholo ecitshwayo ye-Jericho ehlome nge-nuclear ephakathi nendawo isesixwayiso, okwenza amasignesha awo emisebe abonakale ezindizeni ezigadayo zase-US. Izinhloso zokuqala yilezi wathi ukuthi ihlanganise nekomkhulu lamasosha aseSyria, eduze kwaseDamaseku, kanye nekomkhulu lamasosha ase-Eygptian, eduze kwaseCairo.

Ngalo lolo suku okwatholwa ngalo ukuhlangana, i-12 Okthoba, i-US yaqala ukuthuthwa kwezikhali okukhulu u-Israyeli ayekade efuna - futhi i-US yayikade imelana - isikhathi eside.

Okuxakayo ngalesi sexwayiso ukuthi bekuwusongo lwenuzi ikakhulukazi oluhloselwe ozakwabo hhayi ezitheni.

Eqinisweni, kukhona impikiswano yokuthi lona umsebenzi oyinhloko wezikhali zenuzi zakwa-Israyeli. Le mpikiswano ibekwe ku-Seymour Hersh's Inketho kaSamsoni, ene-a i-akhawunti enemininingwane yezaziso zakwa-Israyeli zangomhla ziyi-12 kuMfumfu. (Omunye umbono wangomhla ziyi-12 kuMfumfu unikezwe kulokhu Ucwaningo lwase-US.)

Ngokushesha ngemva kwenhlekelele ye-12 Okthoba, i-US yaphakamisa izinga lokuxwayisa ngezikhali zayo.

Ngemuva kokuthola usizo lwezempi lwase-US, amabutho akwa-Israyeli aqala ukwenza intuthuko futhi kwamenyezelwa ukuthi kuqedwe ukulwa yi-UN ngomhlaka-14 Okthoba.

Umkhuzi wamathangi akwa-Israel u-Ariel Sharon wabe esephula isivumelwano sokuyeka ukudubula wawela iSuez Canal wangena eGibhithe. Esekelwa amabutho amakhulu ahlomile ngaphansi komkhuzi u-Avraham Adan, uSharon wasongela ukunqoba amabutho aseGibhithe ngokuphelele. I-Cairo yayisengozini.

ISoviet Union, eyayingumsekeli omkhulu waseGibhithe ngaleso sikhathi, yaqala ukuthutha amasosha ayo ukuze asize ukuvikela inhloko-dolobha yaseGibhithe.

Isikhungo sezindaba saseMelika i-UPI imibiko inguqulo eyodwa yalokho okwenzeka ngokulandelayo:

'Ukuze amise u-Sharon [no-Adan], u-Kissinger uphakamise isimo sokuqwashisa sawo wonke amasosha okuvikela ase-US emhlabeni jikelele. Abizwa ngokuthi ama-DefCons, esimweni sokuzivikela, asebenza ngokuhleleka kokwehla ukusuka ku-DefCon V kuya ku-DefCon I, okuyimpi. U-Kissinger wayala i-DefCon III. Ngokusho kowayeyisikhulu soMnyango WezoMbuso, isinqumo sokuthuthela ku-DefCon III “sithumele umyalezo ocacile wokuthi ukwephula kukaSharon isivumelwano sokuqeda impi kwakusidonsela engxabanweni namaSoviet nokuthi sasingenaso isifiso sokubona iButho LaseGibhithe libhujiswa.” '

Uhulumeni wakwa-Israel umise ukuhlasela kwe-Sharon/Adan kwe-Egypt.

UNoam Chomsky unikeza a incazelo ehlukene kwezenzakalo:

'Eminyakeni eyishumi kamuva, uHenry Kissinger wabiza isexwayiso senuzi ezinsukwini zokugcina zempi ka-1973 yakwa-Israel-Arab. Inhloso bekuwukuxwayisa abantu baseRussia ukuthi bangaphazamisi imizamo yakhe yobunxusa, eklanyelwe ukuqinisekisa ukuthi i-Israel iyanqoba, kodwa ibe nomkhawulo, ukuze i-US isazoqhubeka nokulawula isifunda ngaphandle kohlangothi. Futhi izindlela zokuqondisa zazintekenteke. I-US kanye neRussia ngokuhlanganyela babebeke isivumelwano sokuyeka ukudubula, kodwa uKissinger wazisa ngasese u-Israyeli ukuthi angakwazi ukukuziba. Ngakho-ke isidingo sesexwayiso senuzi ukuze kwethuse abaseRussia.'

Kunoma yikuphi ukuhumusha, ukukhushulwa kwezinga lesexwayiso senuzi lase-US kwakumayelana nokuphatha inkinga kanye nokubeka imingcele ekuziphatheni kwabanye. Kungenzeka ukuthi isexwayiso sikaPutin sakamuva 'sendlela ekhethekile yomsebenzi wokulwa' sinezisusa ezifanayo. Kuzona zombili lezi zimo, njengoba uChomsky engaveza, ukuphakamisa isixwayiso senuzi kunciphisa kunokuba kukhuphule ukuphepha nokuvikeleka kwezakhamizi zezwe.

Imfundiso kaCarter, Imfundiso kaPutin

Izinsongo zamanje zenuzi zaseRussia zombili ziyethusa futhi zephula ngokusobala i-UN Charter: 'Wonke Amalungu azogwema ubudlelwano bawo bamazwe ngamazwe usongo noma ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ngokumelene nobuqotho bendawo noma ukuzimela kwezombusazwe kwanoma yimuphi umbuso….' (I-athikili 2, isigaba 4, kugcizelelwe)

Ngo-1996, iNkantolo Yomhlaba wabusa ukuthi usongo noma ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi kuzoba 'ngokusemthethweni'.

Indawo eyodwa lapho yayingabona khona ukuthi kungenzeka ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi ngokomthetho kwakusesimweni esisongela 'ukusinda kwezwe'. Inkantolo wathi angeke 'iphethe ngokungaguqukiyo ukuthi usongo noma ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi kuzoba semthethweni noma kube semthethweni esimeni sokuzivikela esidlulele, lapho khona kanye ukusinda koMbuso kungaba sengozini'.

Esimeni samanje, ukusinda kweRussia njengombuso akukho engcupheni. Ngakho-ke, ngokwencazelo yeNkantolo Yomhlaba yomthetho, izinsongo zenuzi ezikhishwa iRussia azikho emthethweni.

Lokho kuya nasezinsongweni zenuzi zaseMelika kanye nezaseBrithani. Noma ngabe kwenzekani eTaiwan ngo-1955 noma e-Iraq ngo-1991, ukusinda kuzwelonke kwe-US kwakungekho engcupheni. Noma ngabe kwenzekani eMalaysia maphakathi nawo-XNUMX, kwakungekho ingozi yokuthi i-United Kingdom ngeke isinde. Ngakho-ke lezi zinsongo zenuzi (kanye nokunye okuningi okungashiwo) kwakungekho emthethweni.

Abahlaziyi baseNtshonalanga abajaha ukugxeka uhlanya lwenuzi lukaPutin bangenza kahle ukukhumbula umsangano wenuzi waseNtshonalanga wesikhathi esedlule.

Kungenzeka ukuthi lokho iRussia ekwenzayo manje ukudala inqubomgomo evamile, ukudweba umugqa wenuzi esihlabathini mayelana nalokho okuzokwenza futhi okungeke kuvumele ukuthi kwenzeke eMpumalanga Yurophu.

Uma kunjalo, lokhu kuzofana ngandlela thize ne-Carter Doctrine, okunye usongo lwenuzi 'olwesabekayo' oluhlobene nendawo. Ngomhla zingama-23 kuMasingana 1980, enkulumweni yakhe Yesimo SeNyunyana, owayengumongameli wase-US uJimmy Carter wathi:

Ukuma kwethu makucace ngokuphelele: Umzamo wanoma yimuphi amandla angaphandle wokulawula isifunda sasePersian Gulf uzothathwa njengokuhlasela okubalulekile kwe-United States of America, futhi lokho kuhlasela kuzohoxiswa nganoma iyiphi indlela edingekayo. , kuhlanganise nebutho lezempi.'

'Noma yiziphi izindlela ezidingekayo' zazihlanganisa nezikhali zenuzi. Njengezifundiswa ezimbili zasemanzini zase-US amazwana: 'Nakuba okuthiwa i-Carter Doctrine ingazange ikhulume ngokuqondile ngezikhali zenuzi, kwakukholelwa kakhulu ngaleso sikhathi ukuthi usongo lokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi lwaluyingxenye yesu lase-US lokuvimba amaSoviets ukuthi aqhubekele eningizimu esuka e-Afghanistan aye ezindaweni ezicebile ngowoyela. IPersian Gulf.'

I-Carter Doctrine yayingelona usongo lwenuzi esimweni esithile esibucayi, kodwa inqubomgomo emile yokuthi izikhali zenuzi zase-US zingasetshenziswa uma amandla angaphandle (ngaphandle kwe-US ngokwayo) ezama ukulawula uwoyela waseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Kungenzeka ukuthi uhulumeni waseRussia manje ufuna ukumisa isambulela sezikhali zenuzi esifanayo phezu kweMpumalanga Yurophu, iPutin Doctrine. Uma kunjalo, kuzoba yingozi futhi akukho emthethweni njengeCarter Doctrine.

Abahlaziyi baseNtshonalanga abajaha ukugxeka uhlanya lwenuzi lukaPutin bangenza kahle ukukhumbula umsangano wenuzi waseNtshonalanga wesikhathi esedlule. Cishe akukho lutho olushintshile emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule eNtshonalanga, kungaba olwazini lomphakathi kanye nezimo zengqondo noma emigomeni yombuso kanye nokwenza, ukuvimbela iNtshonalanga ekwenzeni izinsongo zenuzi esikhathini esizayo. Lona umcabango osangulukisayo njengoba sibhekene nokungabi namthetho kwezikhali zenuzi zaseRussia namuhla.

UMilan Rai, umhleli we Ukuthula Izindaba, ungumbhali we I-Tactical Trident: The Rifkind Doctrine and the Third World (Amaphepha e-Drava, 1995). Izibonelo ezengeziwe zezinsongo zenuzi zaseBrithani zingatholakala endabeni yakhe, 'Ukucabanga Okungacabangeki Ngokungacabangeki - Ukusetshenziswa Kwezikhali Zenuzi kanye Nomfuziselo Wenkulumo-ze' (2018).