I-US Ingasiza Kanjani Ukuletha Ukuthula E-Ukraine?

NguNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Ephreli 28, 2022
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Ngo-Ephreli 21, uMongameli Biden wamemezela ukuthunyelwa okusha wezikhali eziya e-Ukraine, ngezindleko zamaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-800 kubakhokhi bentela baseMelika. Ngomhla zingama-25 kuMbasa, oNobhala Blinken no-Austin bamemezele $ 300 million usizo lwezempi olwengeziwe. I-United States manje isisebenzise ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-3.7 ezikhalini zase-Ukraine kusukela ekuhlaselweni kweRussia, iletha lonke usizo lwezempi lwase-US e-Ukraine kusukela ngo-2014 kuya cishe. $ 6.4 billion.

Okuhamba phambili kwezindiza zaseRussia e-Ukraine kube nguku ukubhubhisa eziningi zalezi zikhali ngangokunokwenzeka ngaphambi kokuba zifinyelele phambili zempi, ngakho-ke akucaci ukuthi lezi zikhali ezinkulu zisebenza ngempumelelo kangakanani kwezempi. Omunye umlenze we-US "usekelo" lwe-Ukraine izijeziso zayo zezomnotho nezezimali ngokumelene neRussia, ukusebenza kwayo nakho kuphezulu kakhulu engaqiniseki.

Unobhala-jikelele we-UN u-Antonio Guterres ukuvakashela I-Moscow ne-Kyiv zizame ukukhahlela izingxoxo zokuthi kuqedwe ukulwa kanye nesivumelwano sokuthula. Njengoba amathemba ezingxoxo zokuthula zangaphambilini eBelarus naseTurkey asegugulekile ngenxa yokwanda kwezempi, izinkulumo ezinobutha kanye nezinsolo zobugebengu bezempi obunepolitiki, umsebenzi kaNobhala Jikelele uGuterres manje ungase ube ithemba elingcono kakhulu lokuthula e-Ukraine.  

Le phethini yamathemba okuqala esixazululo sezokusebenzela esichithwa ngokushesha yi-war psychosis ayiyona into engavamile. Idatha yokuthi izimpi ziphela kanjani kusukela ku-Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) ikwenza kucace ukuthi inyanga yokuqala yempi inikeza ithuba elihle kakhulu lesivumelwano sokuthula okuxoxiwe ngaso. Lelo windi selidlulile e-Ukraine. 

An ukuhlaziywa yedatha ye-UCDP yeCentre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ithole ukuthi ama-44% ezimpi eziphela kungakapheli inyanga esivumelwaneni sokuqeda umlilo nokuthula esikhundleni sokuhlulwa okuwujuqu kwanoma yiluphi uhlangothi, kuyilapho lokho kwehla ku-24% ezimpini. lokho kuhlala phakathi kwenyanga nonyaka. Lapho izimpi sezidlulele onyakeni wesibili, ziba nzima nakakhulu futhi ngokuvamile zithatha iminyaka engaphezu kweyishumi.

Uzakwabo we-CSIS uBenjamin Jensen, owahlaziya idatha ye-UCDP, waphetha, “Isikhathi sokuxoxisana manje. Uma impi ithatha isikhathi eside ngaphandle kwemvume yezinhlangothi zombili, kulapho maningi amathuba okuthi ikhule ibe ukungqubuzana okuthatha isikhathi eside... Ngaphezu kwesijeziso, izikhulu zaseRussia zidinga umzila osebenzayo wokuxoxisana obhekana nokukhathazeka kwazo zonke izinhlangothi.”

Ukuze uphumelele, idiplomacy eholela esivumelwaneni sokuthula kumele ihlangabezane nezidingo ezinhlanu eziyisisekelo izimo:

Okokuqala, zonke izinhlangothi kumelwe zithole izinzuzo esivumelwaneni sokuthula esidlula lokho ezicabanga ukuthi zingakuzuza ngempi.

Izikhulu zase-US kanye ne-allied zenza impi yolwazi ukuze kuthuthukiswe umbono wokuthi iRussia ilahlekelwa yimpi nokuthi i-Ukraine ingakwazi ngezempi. ukunqoba Russia, njengoba nje ezinye izikhulu vuma ukuthi lokho kungathatha iminyaka eminingana.      

Eqinisweni, alukho uhlangothi oluyozuza empini ethatha isikhathi eside ethatha izinyanga noma iminyaka eminingi. Izimpilo zezigidi zabantu base-Ukraine zizolahleka futhi zonakaliswe, kuyilapho iRussia izobe igcwele uhlobo lodaka lwezempi i-USSR kanye ne-United States eseluvele lwabhekana nayo e-Afghanistan, nezimpi zakamuva zase-US eziphenduke zaba yiyo. 

E-Ukraine, izinhlaka eziyisisekelo zesivumelwano sokuthula sezivele zikhona. Yilawa: ukuhoxiswa kwamabutho aseRussia; ukungathathi hlangothi kwe-Ukraine phakathi kwe-NATO neRussia; ukuzimisela kwabo bonke abantu base-Ukraine (kuhlanganise eCrimea naseDonbas); kanye nesivumelwano sokuphepha sesifunda esivikela wonke umuntu futhi esivimbela izimpi ezintsha. 

Izinhlangothi zombili empeleni zilwela ukuqinisa isandla sazo esivumelwaneni ekugcineni ngaleyo migqa. Ngakho-ke bangaki abantu okufanele bafe ngaphambi kokuthi imininingwane isetshenzwe etafuleni lezingxoxo esikhundleni sokuchitha imfucumfucu yamadolobha namadolobha ase-Ukraine?

Okwesibili, abalamuli kumele bangakhethi futhi bethenjwa yizinhlangothi zombili.

I-United States ithathe amashumi eminyaka esikhundleni sokuba ngumlamuleli enkingeni yase-Israel-Palestine amashumi eminyaka, njengoba ihlehla ngokusobala futhi. izingalo uhlangothi olulodwa futhi ukuhlukumeza I-veto yayo ye-UN ukuvimbela isenzo samazwe ngamazwe. Lokhu kube imodeli esobala yempi engapheli.  

ITurkey kuze kube manje isisebenze njengomxazululi oyinhloko phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, kodwa iyilungu le-NATO elinikezile. drones, izikhali nokuqeqeshwa kwezempi e-Ukraine. Zombili izinhlangothi zamukele ukulamula kweTurkey, kodwa ingabe iTurkey ingaba umthengisi othembekile ngempela? 

I-UN ingadlala indima esemthethweni, njengoba yenza eYemen, lapho izinhlangothi zombili zigcina khona ukubuka ukumiswa kwezinyanga ezimbili. Kodwa ngisho nangemizamo emihle kakhulu ye-UN, kuthathe iminyaka ukuxoxisana ngalokhu kumiswa kwempi okuntekenteke.    

Okwesithathu, isivumelwano kumele sibhekane nezinto ezikhathaza bonke abathintekayo empini.

Ngo-2014, ukuketula umbuso okusekelwa yi-US kanye ne- ukubulala yababhikishi abamelene nokuketulwa umbuso e-Odessa kwaholela ekumemezeleni inkululeko yiDonetsk kanye neLuhansk People's Republics. Isivumelwano sokuqala seMinsk Protocol ngoSepthemba 2014 sehlulekile ukuqeda impi yombango eyalandela eMpumalanga ye-Ukraine. Umehluko obalulekile ku- Minsk II isivumelwano ngoFebhuwari 2015 sasiwukuthi abamele i-DPR kanye ne-LPR bafakwe ezingxoxweni, futhi yaphumelela ukuqeda ukulwa okubi kakhulu nokuvimbela ukuqubuka kwempi okusha okukhulu iminyaka engu-7.

Kukhona elinye iqembu elalingekho kakhulu ezingxoxweni zaseBelarus naseTurkey, abantu abayingxenye yabantu baseRussia nase-Ukraine: abesifazane bamazwe womabili. Ngenkathi abanye babo belwa, abanye abaningi bangakhuluma njengezisulu, abalimala bezakhamuzi kanye nababaleki empini ededelwe ikakhulukazi ngamadoda. Amazwi abesifazane etafuleni ayoba isikhumbuzo esiqhubekayo sezindleko zomuntu zempi kanye nempilo yabesifazane kanye izingane ezisengozini.    

Ngisho noma uhlangothi olulodwa lunqoba impi ngokwezempi, izikhalo zabahluliwe kanye nezindaba zezombangazwe namasu ezingaxazululiwe ngokuvamile zihlwanyela imbewu yokuqubuka okusha kwempi esikhathini esizayo. Njengoba uBenjamin Jensen we-CSIS ephakamisile, izifiso zosopolitiki base-US naseNtshonalanga zokujezisa futhi bathole amasu. Inzuzo phezu kweRussia akumele kuvunyelwe ukuvimbela isinqumo esibanzi esibhekana nokukhathazeka kwazo zonke izinhlangothi futhi siqinisekise ukuthula okuhlala njalo.     

Okwesine, kumele kube nomhlahlandlela wesinyathelo ngesinyathelo oya ekuthuleni okuzinzile nokuhlala njalo zonke izinhlangothi ezizinikele kukho.

The Minsk II isivumelwano siholele ekumisweni kwezikhali okuntekenteke futhi kwasungula umhlahlandlela oya esixazululweni sezombangazwe. Kodwa uhulumeni wase-Ukraine kanye nephalamende, ngaphansi koMongameli uPoroshenko bese kuba uZelensky, behlulekile ukuthatha izinyathelo ezilandelayo uPoroshenko avumelana nazo eMinsk ngo-2015: ukudlulisa imithetho nezinguquko zomthethosisekelo ukuze kuvunyelwe ukhetho oluzimele, olugadwe ngamazwe ngamazwe ku-DPR kanye ne-LPR, kanye ukubanikeza ukuzimela ngaphakathi kwesifunda sase-Ukraine esihlangene.

Manje njengoba lokhu kwehluleka kuholele ekuqashelweni kweRussia ukuzimela kwe-DPR kanye ne-LPR, isivumelwano esisha sokuthula kufanele siphinde sixazulule isimo sabo, kanye neseCrimea, ngezindlela zonke izinhlangothi ezizozibophezela kuzo, noma ngabe lokho kungenxa yokuzimela okuthenjisiwe I-Minsk II noma ukuzimela okusemthethweni, okuqashelwa e-Ukraine. 

Iphuzu elibambelele ezingxoxweni zokuthula eTurkey kwakuwukudinga kwe-Ukraine iziqinisekiso zokuphepha eziqinile zokuqinisekisa ukuthi iRussia ngeke iphinde iyihlasele. I-UN Charter ivikela ngokusemthethweni wonke amazwe ekuhlaselweni kwamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa yehlulekile kaningi ukwenza lokho lapho umhlaseli, ngokuvamile i-United States, esebenzisa ivoto yoMkhandlu Wezokuphepha. Ngakho-ke i-Ukraine engathathi hlangothi ingaqinisekiswa kanjani ukuthi izovikeleka ekuhlaselweni esikhathini esizayo? Futhi zonke izinhlangothi zingaqiniseka kanjani ukuthi ezinye zizonamathela esivumelwaneni kulokhu?

Okwesihlanu, amandla angaphandle akumele abukele phansi ukuxoxisana noma ukuqaliswa kwesivumelwano sokuthula.

Nakuba i-United States namadlelandawonye ayo e-NATO bengewona amaqembu alwayo e-Ukraine, indima yabo ekubhebhezeleni le nkinga ngokunwetshwa kwe-NATO kanye nokuketula umbuso ngo-2014, base besekela ukushiya kukaKyiv isivumelwano seMinsk II nokukhukhula kwe-Ukraine ngezikhali, kubenza “indlovu. ekamelweni” elizokwenza kube nesithunzi eside phezu kwetafula lezingxoxo, noma ngabe likuphi.

Ngo-April 2012, owayenguNobhala Jikelele we-UN u-Kofi Annan wenza isu elinamaphuzu ayisithupha lokuyeka ukudubula okuqashwe yi-UN kanye noguquko lwezepolitiki eSyria. Kodwa ngaleso sikhathi lapho uhlelo luka-Annan luqala ukusebenza futhi abaqaphi bokuqeda ukudubula be-UN base besendaweni, i-United States, i-NATO kanye nabalingani bayo be-Arab monarchist babambe izingqungquthela ezintathu ze-"Friends of Syria", lapho bathembisa khona usizo olungenamkhawulo lwezezimali nezempi ku-Al. Amavukelambuso ahlobene neQaeda abeseka ukuketula uhulumeni waseSyria. Lokhu wakhuthazwa amavukelambuso akushaya indiva ukumiswa kwezikhali, futhi kwaholela kwenye iminyaka eyishumi yempi kubantu baseSyria. 

Isimo esintekenteke sezingxoxo zokuthula phezu kwe-Ukraine senza impumelelo ibe sengozini enkulu emathonyeni anjalo angaphandle anamandla. I-United States yeseka i-Ukraine ngendlela yokubhekana nempi yombango eDonbas esikhundleni sokusekela imibandela yesivumelwano saseMinsk II, futhi lokhu kubangele impi neRussia. Manje uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseTurkey, uMevlut Cavosoglu, utshele I-CNN Turk ukuthi amalungu e-NATO angashiwongo “afuna impi iqhubeke,” ukuze aqhubeke enza buthaka iRussia.

Isiphetho  

Ukuthi i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo be-NATO benza kanjani manje nasezinyangeni ezizayo kuzobaluleka ekunqumeni ukuthi i-Ukraine ibhujiswa iminyaka yempi, njenge-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, iLibya, iSomalia, iSyria neYemen, noma ukuthi le mpi iphetha ngokushesha ngokusebenzisa impi. inqubo yobunxusa eletha ukuthula, ukuphepha kanye nokuzinza kubantu baseRussia, Ukraine kanye nomakhelwane babo.

Uma i-United States ifuna ukusiza ukubuyisela ukuthula e-Ukraine, kufanele isekele izingxoxo zokuthula, futhi ikwenze kucace kumfelandawonye wayo, i-Ukraine, ukuthi izokweseka noma yiziphi izivumelwano ezikholelwa ukuthi izingxoxo zase-Ukraine ziyadingeka ukuze kufinyelelwe esivumelwaneni sokuthula neRussia. 

Noma ngabe yimuphi umlamuleli iRussia ne-Ukraine abavuma ukusebenzisana naye ukuzama ukuxazulula le nkinga, i-United States kumele inikeze inqubo yezobunxusa ukwesekwa kwayo okugcwele, okungagodliwe, esidlangalaleni nangemuva kweminyango evaliwe. Kufanele futhi iqinisekise ukuthi izenzo zayo azilinyazisi uhlelo lokuthula e-Ukraine njengoba benza uhlelo luka-Annan eSyria ngowezi-2012. 

Esinye sezinyathelo ezibucayi abaholi base-US kanye ne-NATO abangazithatha ukuze banikeze isisusa sokuthi iRussia ivume ukuthula okuxoxiwe ngakho ukuzibophezela ekususeni unswinyo uma futhi iRussia ihambisana nesivumelwano sokuhoxa. Ngaphandle kokuzibophezela okunjalo, unswinyo luzolahlekelwa ngokushesha yinoma yikuphi ukubaluleka kokuziphatha noma okungokoqobo njengethonya phezu kweRussia, futhi kuyoba uhlobo olungenamthetho lwesijeziso esihlangene ngokumelene nabantu bayo, futhi ngokumelene neRussia. abantu abampofu yonke indawo abasakwazi ukuthenga ukudla okondla imindeni yabo. Njengomholi we-de facto womfelandawonye wezempi we-NATO, isikhundla sase-US kulo mbuzo sizobaluleka. 

Ngakho-ke izinqumo zenqubomgomo ze-United States zizoba nomthelela omubi wokuthi maduze kuzoba nokuthula e-Ukraine, noma impi ende futhi enegazi. Ukuhlolwa kwabakhi benqubomgomo base-US, kanye nabantu baseMelika ababakhathalelayo abantu base-Ukraine, kufanele kube ukubuza ukuthi imiphi yale miphumela ukukhetha kwenqubomgomo yase-US okungase kuholele kuyo.

UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimele, umcwaningi we-CODEPINK kanye nomlobi we Igazi ezandleni Zethu: I-American Invasion kanye nokubhujiswa kwe-Iraq.