Ukusuka ePacific Pivot kuya kuGreen Revolution

Le ndatshana iyingxenye yochungechunge lwamasonto onke lwe-FPIF ku-“Pacific Pivot” yokuphatha kuka-Obama, ehlola imithelela yokubuthana kwamasosha ase-US e-Asia-Pacific—kokubili kwezombusazwe zesifunda kanye naleyo ebizwa ngokuthi imiphakathi “esingethe”. Ungafunda isingeniso sikaJoseph Gerson ochungechungeni lapha.

Amagquma aphansi esifunda sase-Dalateqi e-Inner Mongolia andaba kancane ngemva kwendlu yasepulazini ependiwe ewupende. Izimbuzi nezinkomo zidla ngokuthula emasimini azungezile. Kodwa hamba ubheke entshonalanga nje ngamamitha ayi-100 ukusuka endlini yasepulazini futhi uzobhekana neqiniso elincane kakhulu lokwalusa: amagagasi esihlabathi angapheli, angekho noma yiziphi izimpawu zokuphila, afinyelela kude lapho iso lingabona khona.

Lolu wugwadule lwaseKubuchi, isilo esizalwa ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esizulazula ngokungenakuvinjwa empumalanga ngaseBeijing, amakhilomitha angama-800 ukusuka lapho. Uma ingahloliwe, izogubuzela inhloko-dolobha yaseChina esikhathini esizayo esingekude kangako. Lesi silo singase singabonakali okwamanje eWashington, kodwa imimoya enamandla ithwala isihlabathi sayo iye eBeijing naseSeoul, futhi eminye isenza sifike ogwini olusempumalanga ye-United States.

Ukuphenduka ugwadule kuwusongo olukhulu ekuphileni komuntu. Izingwadule zibhebhetheka ngesivinini elandayo kuwo wonke amazwekazi. Izwe laseMelika lalahlekelwa kakhulu yimpilo kanye nendlela yokuziphilisa ngesikhathi seDust Bowl yase-American Great Plains ngeminyaka yawo-1920, njengoba kwenza isifunda saseSahel eNtshonalanga Afrika ekuqaleni kwawo-1970. Kodwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubeka ugwadule kwelinye izinga, kusongela ukudala izigidi, ekugcineni izigidigidi, zababaleki abangabantu bemvelo kulo lonke elase-Asia, e-Afrika, e-Australia, naseMelika. Ingxenye eyodwa kwesithupha yabantu baseMali naseBurkina Faso sebevele baba ababaleki ngenxa yokusabalala kwezingwadule. Imiphumela yazo zonke lezi zihlabathi ezinwabuzelayo kubiza umhlaba wonke amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-42 ngonyaka, ngokohlelo lwe-UN Environmental Programme.

Ukusabalala kwezingwadule, kuhlangene nokomisa kwezilwandle, ukuncibilika kwezingqimba zeqhwa ezitholakala ezindaweni ezishisayo, kanye nokuwohloka kwezitshalo nezilwane emhlabeni, kwenza umhlaba wethu ungabonakali. Izithombe zezindawo eziwugwadule ezithunyelwe i-Curiosity Rover ye-NASA zisuka ku-Mars zingase zibe izithombe zekusasa lethu elibuhlungu.

Kodwa ubungeke wazi ukuthi ugwadule yisibikezelo se-apocalypse uma ubheka amawebhusayithi e-Washington think tanks. Ukusesha kusizindalwazi seBrookings Institution kwegama elithi “missile” kufake izicelo eziyi-1,380, kodwa “ukugwaduleka” kuveze okuncane okungama-24. Ukusesha okufanayo kwiwebhusayithi ye- I-Heritage Foundation ikhiqize amagama angu-2,966 XNUMX egama elithi “missile” kanti amathathu kuphela asho “ugwadule.” Nakuba izinsongo ezinjengokuba ugwadule sezivele zibulala abantu—futhi zizobulala abaningi ngokwengeziwe emashumini eminyaka azayo—azitholi ukunakwa okungako, noma izinsiza, njengezinsongo zokuphepha ezivamile njengobuphekula noma ukuhlasela kwemicibisholo, okubulala abambalwa.

Ukuphenduka ugwadule kungenye yenqwaba yezinsongo zemvelo—kusukela ekuswelekeni kokudla nezifo ezintsha kuya ekuqothulweni kwezitshalo nezilwane okubaluleke kakhulu endaweni ezungezile—okusongela ukuqothulwa kwezinhlobo zethu zezilwane. Nokho asikaqali ngisho nokuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe, amasu, kanye nombono wesikhathi eside odingekayo ukuze sibhekane ngqo nalolu songo lwezokuphepha. Abathwali bezindiza zethu, imicibisholo ejikijelwayo, kanye ne-cyber warfare akusizi ngalutho ukulwa nalolu songo njengoba izinduku namatshe kumelana namathangi nezindiza ezinophephela emhlane.

Uma sizosinda ngale kwaleli khulu leminyaka, kufanele ngokuyisisekelo siguqule ukuqonda kwethu ukulondeka. Labo abasebenza kwezempi kumele bamukele umbono omusha ngokuphelele wamabutho ethu ahlomile. Kusukela e-United States, amasosha omhlaba kumele anikele okungenani amaphesenti angama-50 esabelomali sawo ekuthuthukiseni nasekusebenziseni ubuchwepheshe bokunqanda ukusabalala kwezingwadule, ukuvuselela izilwandle, nokuguqula ngokuphelele izinhlelo zezimboni ezibhubhisayo zanamuhla zibe umnotho omusha. esimeme ngomqondo wangempela wegama.

Indawo engcono kakhulu ongaqala ngayo iseMpumalanga ye-Asia, okugxilwe kuyo “i-Pacific pivot” yokuphatha kuka-Obama. Uma singasebenzisi uhlobo oluhluke kakhulu lwe-pivot kuleyo ngxenye yomhlaba, futhi maduzane, izihlabathi zasogwadule namanzi akhuphukayo azosimboza sonke.

I-Environmental Imperative yase-Asia

I-East Asia iya ngokuya isebenza njengenjini eqhuba umnotho womhlaba, futhi izinqubomgomo zayo zesifunda zibeka amazinga omhlaba. I-China, i-South Korea, i-Japan, kanye ne-Eastern Russia ngokuya ngokuya ikhula bakhulisa ubuholi bawo bomhlaba wonke ocwaningweni, ekukhiqizweni kwamasiko, kanye nokusungulwa kwezinkambiso zokubusa nokuphatha. Yiminyaka ethokozisayo yase-East Asia ethembisa amathuba amahle kakhulu.

Kodwa izitayela ezimbili eziphazamisayo zisongela ukuhlehlisa leli Khulu le-Pacific. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthuthukiswa komnotho okusheshayo kanye nokugcizelelwa komphumela womnotho osheshayo - ngokuphambene nokukhula okusimeme - kube nomthelela ekusabalaleni kwezingwadule, ukwehla kwamanzi ahlanzekile, kanye nesiko labathengi elikhuthaza izimpahla ezilahlwayo kanye nokusetshenziswa okungenangqondo endaweni. izindleko zemvelo.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwanda okungapheli kwezindleko zezempi esifundeni kusongela ukubukela phansi isithembiso saleso sifunda. Ngo-2012, eChina yandise ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezempi ngamaphesenti angu-11, ephase umaki wezigidigidi eziyi-100 okokuqala ngqa. Ukwenyuka okunamadijithi amabili okunjalo kusizile ukuphusha omakhelwane baseShayina ukuthi banyuse isabelomali sabo sezempi. INingizimu Korea ibilokhu ikhulisa kancane ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezempi, nokulinganiselwa ukuthi izonyuka ngamaphesenti amahlanu ngonyaka wezi-5. umchithimali omkhulu wesithupha emhlabeni, ngokweStockholm International Peace Research Institute. Lokhu kusetshenziswa kwemali kugqugquzele umjaho wezikhali osevele usabalalisa abantu abaningi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eNingizimu Asia, nase-Asia Ephakathi.

Konke lokhu kusetshenziswa kwemali kuxhumene nezindleko ezinkulu zempi e-United States, umgqugquzeli oyinhloko wokulwa kwezempi emhlabeni jikelele. ICongress njengamanje icubungula isabelomali sePentagon samabhiliyoni angama- $ 607, okungaphezulu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu kunalokho okucelwe ngumongameli. I-United States idale umbuthano ononya wethonya endaweni yezempi. I-Pentagon ikhuthaza ozakwabo abambisene nabo ukuthi bakhulise imali yabo ukuze bathenge izikhali zase-US futhi balondoloze ukusebenzisana kwezinhlelo. Kepha njengoba i-United States ibheka ukusikwa kwePentagon njengengxenye yesivumelwano sokunciphisa izikweletu, icela abalingani bayo ukuthi bathwale umthwalo omningi. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yikuphi, iWashington icindezela abalingani bayo ukuthi banikele ngezinsiza eziningi kwezempi, okuphinde kuqinise umjaho wezikhali esifundeni.

Osopolitiki baseYurophu babephupha ngezwekazi elihlangene elinokuthula eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule. Kodwa izingxabano ezingaxazululiwe mayelana nomhlaba, izinsiza, nezindaba ezingokomlando, kuhlangene nokwenyuka kwezindleko zempi, kwabangela izimpi zezwe ezimbili ezibhubhisayo. Uma abaholi base-Asia bengawubambi umjaho wabo wamanje wezikhali, bazifaka engcupheni yomphumela ofanayo, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi bakhuluma kanjani ngokuphilisana ngokuthula.

I-Pivot Eluhlaza

Izinsongo zemvelo kanye nezindleko zezempi ezibalekayo ziyi Scylla neCharybdis okufanele kuzulazule kuzo i-East Asia kanye nomhlaba wonke. Kodwa mhlawumbe lezi zilo zingaphendukelana zodwa. Uma bonke ababambiqhaza e-East Asia edidiyelwe bechaza kabusha “ukuphepha” bebonke ukuze babhekisele ikakhulukazi ezinsongweni zemvelo, ukubambisana phakathi kwebutho lezempi elifanele ukubhekana nezinselele zemvelo kungase kusebenze njengesisusa sokukhiqiza ipharadigm entsha yokuphilisana.

Wonke amazwe abelokhu ekhulisa kancane kancane indlela asebenzisa ngayo imali ezindabeni zezemvelo – uhlelo lwaseShayina oludumile lwe-863, iphakethe lokuvuselela okuluhlaza lokuphatha kuka-Obama, ukutshalwa kwezimali okuluhlaza kuka-Lee Myung-bak eNingizimu Korea. Kodwa lokhu akwanele. Kumele kuhambisane nokwehliswa okukhulu kwezempi evamile. Kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo i-China, i-Japan, i-Korea, i-United States kanye nezinye izizwe zase-Asia kumele ziqondise kabusha ukusetshenziswa kwazo kwezempi ukuze kubhekwane nokuphepha kwemvelo. Umgomo wazo zonke izigaba zamasosha kulelo nalelo zwe kumele uchazwe kabusha ngokuyisisekelo, futhi ojenene abake bahlela izimpi zezwe kanye nokuhlaselwa kwemicibisholo kumele baphinde baziqeqeshe ukuze babhekane nalolu songo olusha ngokubambisana eduze.

I-American Civilian Conservation Corps, eyasebenzisa uhlobo lwezempi njengengxenye yomkhankaso wokuxazulula izinkinga zemvelo e-United States ngeminyaka yawo-1930, ingaba yisibonelo sokubambisana okusha eMpumalanga Asia. Kakade i-NGO yamazwe ngamazwe i-Future Forest ihlanganisa intsha yaseKorea neyamaShayina ukuze isebenze njengeqembu itshala izihlahla ukuze “Udonga lwayo Olukhulu Oluluhlaza” luqukathe Ugwadule lwaseKubuchi. Ngaphansi kobuholi balowo owayeyinxusa laseNingizimu Korea eChina uKwon Byung Hyun, iFuture Forest ihlanganyele nabantu bendawo ukutshala izihlahla nokuvikela inhlabathi.

Isinyathelo sokuqala kuzoba ukuthi amazwe abize i-Green Pivot Forum echaza izinsongo ezinkulu zemvelo, izinsiza ezidingekayo ukuze kuliwe nezinkinga, kanye nokubeka obala ekusetshenzisweni kwezempi kwezempi okudingekayo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi wonke amazwe avumelana ngezibalo eziyisisekelo.

Isinyathelo esilandelayo sizoba inselele kakhulu: ukwamukela ifomula ehlelekile yokunikezwa kabusha kwayo yonke ingxenye yesistimu yezempi yamanje. Mhlawumbe ibutho lasolwandle lalizobhekana ngokuyinhloko nokuvikela nokubuyisela ulwandle, umbutho wezomoya wawuzosingatha umkhathi kanye nesisi esikhipha umoya, ibutho lamasosha lalizonakekela ukusetshenziswa komhlaba namahlathi, amasosha asolwandle ayezosingatha izinkinga zemvelo eziyinkimbinkimbi, futhi ezobunhloli zizosingatha izinto ngendlela ehlelekile. ukuqapha isimo semvelo yomhlaba. Phakathi neminyaka eyishumi, ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-50 esabelomali sezempi saseChina, eJapane, eKorea, nase-United States—kanye nezinye izizwe—besizonikelwa ekuvikelweni kwemvelo nokubuyiselwa kwesimiso semvelo.

Uma sekuguquliwe ukugxila kokuhlelwa kwezempi nokucwaninga, ukubambisana kuzokwenzeka ngezinga okwakucatshangwa ngalo ngaphambili. Uma isitha siwukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukubambisana okuseduze phakathi kwe-United States, i-China, i-Japan, ne-Republic of Korea akunakwenzeka kuphela, kubaluleke kakhulu.

Njengamazwe ngamanye kanye nomphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe, sinokukhetha: Singaqhubeka nokujaha ukuphepha ngamandla ezempi. Noma singakhetha ukubhekana nezinkinga ezicindezela kakhulu esibhekene nazo: inkinga yezomnotho emhlabeni wonke, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, nokwanda kwezikhali zenuzi.

Isitha sisemasangweni. Ingabe sizolulalela lolu bizo olucacile enkonzweni, noma sizomane sifihle amakhanda ethu esihlabathini?