Njengoba bekulindelekile, uMongameli Trump usekuqinisekisile ukuthi i-Iran iyahambisana nesivumelwano senuzi noma, ukuze ayinike igama layo eliphelele, i-Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi wasiqinisekisa kabili ngaphambili. Muva nje mhla ziyi-14 kuSepthemba 2017, uTrump uphinde wahoxisa unswinyo oluthize ngokumelene ne-Iran njengoba kudingwa ngaphansi kwemibandela yesivumelwano.

Nokho, endaweni enempi kakhulu futhi enobutha inkulumo, ubeke inqubomgomo yakhe entsha maqondana ne-Iran.

Ukuqinisekiswa kwalesi sivumelwano akuyona ingxenye yesivumelwano, kodwa njengoba oklebe abamelene ne-Iran kuzo zombili izinhlangothi bebefuna ukubukela phansi uMengameli u-Barrack Obama nokudala izithiyo endleleni yesivumelwano badinga ukuthi umengameli aphinde aqinisekise njalo ezinsukwini ezingu-90 i-Iran isakuso. ukuhambisana nezinhlinzeko zesivumelwano. Leso sitifiketi asinakho ukuqinisekiswa kwamazwe ngamazwe.

UTrump unikeze uhlu olude lwezinkinga eziphikisanayo mayelana nezinsolo zokuthi i-Iran inethonya elibi esifundeni kanye nokwephulwa kwayo okucatshangwayo kwe-JCPOA, kuyilapho eshaya indiva ngokuphelele irekhodi elide laseMelika lezimpi ezihlangene kanye nobugebengu bempi kanye nokusekelwa kokuqala kwamaqembu amaphekula, njenge-Al Qaeda, i-Taliban. namanye amaqembu amaphekula eMpumalanga Ephakathi nangale kwayo.

Ngokomthetho, iCongress inezinsuku ezingama-60 zokubuyisela unswinyo e-Iran, okungaphula izinhlinzeko ze-JCPOA, noma ishiye izinto zinjengoba zinjalo. Uma kubhekwa inqwaba yoklebe kuCongress, kungenzeka ukuthi bazolandela ukuhola kukaTrump futhi bazozama ukubulala isivumelwano.

Ngesikhathi somkhankaso, uTrump wayevame ukugxeka isivumelwano njengesivumelwano esibi kakhulu emlandweni futhi wathembisa ukuthi uzosidabula. Enkulumweni yakhe yokuvula i-UN General Assembly, uTrump umemezele ukuthi isivumelwano se-Iran "singesinye sezentengiselwano ezimbi kakhulu futhi ezisohlangothini olulodwa i-United States eyake yangena kukho," waze wathi "kuyihlazo e-United States." Waxwayisa ngokwesabekayo ukuthi umhlaba awuzange “uzwe okokugcina, ngikholwe.”

Manje, ngokuqinisekisa ukuthi i-Iran iyahambisana nesivumelwano, uTrump usephile ngokuvumelana nenkulumo yakhe ye-hyperbolic mayelana nesivumelwano esithathwa njengenye yezimpumelelo ezimangalisa kakhulu kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi.

Lokhu ukwenza ngesikhathi lapho abaphathi bakhe bedidekile, lapho kungekho neyodwa yezikweletu zakhe ezinkulu ezigunyazwe yiCongress, lapho usongo lobuphekula eMpumalanga Ephakathi lungakapheli, lapho impi eyinhlekelele yaseSaudi Arabia esekelwe yi-US ngokumelene neYemen. isaqhubeka nokubulala nokulimaza inqwaba yabantu kulelo zwe elikhungethwe ubumpofu nsuku zonke, futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke lapho usongo lukaTrump "lomlilo nolaka olungakaze lubonwe umhlaba" ngokumelene neNorth Korea lungazange lusebenze futhi lokho kuqubuka okuyingozi namanje. iyaqhubeka.

Phakathi kwakho konke lokhu, uthathe isinqumo sokwengeza enye futhi impi engenasidingo ngokuphelele ohlwini futhi ahlukanise i-United States ngokuqhubekayo emhlabeni.

Okokuqala nje, kubalulekile ukuveza ukuthi i-JCPOA akusona isivumelwano samazwe amabili phakathi kwe-Iran ne-United States esingachithwa ngaphandle kohlangothi ngumongameli wase-US. Kwakuyisivumelwano phakathi kwe-Iran nawo wonke amalungu amahlanu ahlala unomphela oMkhandlu Wezokuphepha (iBrithani, China, France, Russia kanye ne-United States) kanye neJalimane.

Ngenxa yaleso sivumelwano esiyingqopha-mlando, i-Iran isuse izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zama-centrifuge futhi iyekile ukwakha ama-centrifuge athuthuke kakhulu eyayiqale ukuwafaka. Ishintshe isiphehli senuzi esinamandla amakhulu ukuze isuse amandla ayo okukhiqiza i-plutonium esesigabeni sezikhali, inikele ngamaphesenti angama-98 ezinto zayo zenuzi, yajoyina i-Add Protocol, futhi yahambisa ekuhlolweni okungenele yi-IAEA ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi iyahambisana yini.

Selokhu kwaqala ukusebenza lesi sivumelwano, ezikhathini eziyisishiyagalombili ezahlukene, i-International Atomic Energy Agency, i-IAEA, isiqinisekise ukuthobela kwe-Iran ngokugcwele izibopho zayo ngaphansi kwalesi sivumelwano. Ngemva kokuphelelwa yisikhathi lokho okubizwa ngokuthi izigaba zokushona kwelanga, i-Iran njengelungu le-NPT kanye Nesivumelwano Esengeziwe sizoqhubeka nokuhlala ngaphansi kokuhlolwa kwe-IAEA futhi izovinjelwa ekwakheni isikhali senuzi.

Ukubuyisela lokho kuvumelana okukhulu ohlelweni lwakhe lwenuzi, zonke unswinyo oluhlobene nezikhali zenuzi bekufanele zisuswe, okwenza i-Iran ibe nobudlelwano obujwayelekile bezomnotho namabhange nomhlaba wonke. Lesi sivumelwano esiyingqopha-mlando sokungabhebhetheki kwafezwa ngaphandle kokudutshulwa futhi ngaphandle kwempi ebhubhisayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Iqiniso lokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi uTrump akazange azihluphe ngisho nangokufunda noma ukuqonda isivumelwano, okuwumphumela weminyaka eminingi yezingxoxo nezinkulumo-mpikiswano ezishubile nezibuhlungu zochwepheshe abahamba phambili abavela emazweni ayisikhombisa, okuhlanganisa noNobhala Wezamandla wase-US ongungoti wezikhali zenuzi. eceleni kwephuzu. Abanye balabo abamzungezile nababhala izinkulumo zakhe, futhi ikakhulukazi umeluleki wakhe, uNdunankulu wase-Israel ophiko lwesokudla uNetanyahu, bamtshele ukuthi kwakuyisivumelwano esibi futhi lokho kwanele kuye.

Isinqumo sikaTrump siphikisana neminye imibuso emihlanu ehamba phambili emhlabeni wonke, leyo ngokusho kukaWolfgang Ischinger, owayeyinxusa laseJalimane e-United States, “ezobonisa ukungawahloniphi ngokuphelele amadlelandawonye aseMelika.” (1)

Kuphinde kungqubuzane nayo yonke i-EU exhase leso sivumelwano futhi ebumbene ekusekeleni i-JCPOA. Ummeleli Ophakeme we-EU uFederica Mogherini ugcizelele kaningi ukuthi isivumelwano siyalethwa futhi sizosetshenziswa njengoba kuvunyelwene.

Kusele usuku ngaphambi kokugunyazwa kukaTrump, uNksz Mogherini wagcizelela ukuthi isivumelwano siyasebenza futhi i-EU izohlala ithembekile kuso (2). Isenzo sikaTrump siphinde sephule uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN owavumelana ngazwi linye isivumelwano ne-Resolution 2231 ngo-2015.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuqaphela ukuthi nakuba wonke amazwe ase-Europe kanye nengxenye enkulu yomhlaba wonke beyigxekile inkulumo kaTrump enobudlova, i-Israel neSaudi Arabia kube yiwona kuphela amazwe ayincomayo. UNetanyahu uhalalisele uTrump “ngesinqumo sakhe sesibindi”, kanti ukwesekwa kweSaudi Arabia sekuthuliswe kakhulu.

Ngenkathi uTrump ekhetha iSaudi Arabia njengezwe lokuqala ukulivakashela ngemuva kokugcotshwa kwakhe ukubamba iqhaza ekwamukelweni kanokusho futhi asayine isivumelwano esingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400 ngezikhali nezinye izimpahla zaseMelika, wabe esendizela e-Israel eyodumisa undunankulu wakwa-Israel, kwaba. acacise ukuthi iyiphi isiqondiso azosithatha ngesikhathi esengumongameli.

Uhlale echema nama-autocrats kanye nemibuso elwa nomakhelwane babo futhi uzame ukubukela phansi zonke izimpumelelo zentando yeningi zomanduleli wakhe.

UMengameli wase-Iran, u-Hassan Rouhani, ubeke ubuso besibindi kulokhu kuqubuka kukaTrump, wathi: “Namuhla i-United States ihlukaniswe kakhulu kunangaphambili ekuphikisaneni kwayo nesivumelwano senuzi kanye nezinhlelo zayo zokulwa nabantu base-Iran. Okwakuzwakala namuhla kwakumane kuwukuphindaphindwa kokumangalelwa okungenasisekelo nenhlamba osekuneminyaka beyiphindaphinda.”

Uthe ngoTrump: “Akazange awufundele umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. Ingabe umongameli angachitha yedwa isivumelwano samazwe ngamazwe? Ngokusobala, akazi ukuthi lesi sivumelwano akusona isivumelwano samazwe amabili phakathi kwe-Iran ne-United States kuphela. "

Kodwa-ke le nkulumo ibaqinise ngempela abaqinile e-Iran ababona ubutha bukaTrump ne-Iran njengobufakazi bezexwayiso zabo zokuthi iMelika ngeke yethenjwa. Kuphinde kwalimala ubudlelwano phakathi kwala mazwe womabili nokwenza ukuthi iMiddle East ingavikeleki.

Njengoba u-Mohamed ElBaradei, inhloko yangaphambili ye-IAEA, ebhale ku-Twitter ukuthi “uTrump eshaya indiva imiphumela yokuhlolwa kwe-IAEA mayelana nokuhambisana kwe-Iran nesivumelwano senuzi kukhumbuza impi yase-Iraq. Ngabe sizofunda?"

Lesi akusona esokuqala sempumelelo enkulu kaMongameli Obama uTrump azame ukuyibukela phansi.

Ulahle uxhaso olubalulekile lokunakekelwa kwezempilo ukuze ashaye i-Obamacare, kanti umthethosivivinywa awuthumele kuCongress ungavunyelwanga. Ukhiphe iMelika ku-Paris Climate Accord, okuyisivumelwano esingaphakathi kwe-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, amalungu angu-195 aseyisayinile futhi amalungu angu-168 asevele asevumile.

Ukhiphe i-United States ku-Trans-Pacific Partnership, kwathi mhla ziyi-11 kuMfumfu wamemezela ukuthi i-US izophuma esivumelwaneni se-North America Free Trade Agreement.

I-United States kanye ne-Israel bamemezele ukuthi bazohoxa ku-UNESCO ngenxa yezinsolo zokuthi bamelene no-Israel.

Ngaphakathi, uTrump uxabene nobuhlakani baseMelika, ebaqhathanisa namaNazi. Uhlasele iningi labezindaba ngokuthi “uyisitha esikhulu sabantu” futhi ekhiqiza izindaba ezingamanga.

Uhlasele “ababizwa ngamajaji” ngokuzama ukuvimba umyalo wakhe ophambene nomthethosisekelo ovimbela ababaleki abangamaSulumane noma abokufika abavela emazweni ayisikhombisa amaSulumane amaningi.

Kodwa-ke, akufanele sinciphise isinqumo sakamuva sikaTrump nge-Iran nazo zonke ezinye izinqubomgomo zakhe zasendle ekhaya naphesheya, ngoba ngokuqinisekisa isivumelwano senuzi uTrump ubeka engcupheni enkulu ukuthula nokuvikeleka kwamazwe ngamazwe futhi wephula isinqumo soMkhandlu Wezokuphepha.

Kunabantu abaningi, okuhlanganisa nabase-Irani abaningi, abafisa ukubona uguquko kuzinqubomgomo zase-Iran, ikakhulukazi emlandweni wayo ongemuhle wamalungelo abantu. Kodwa-ke, okuwukuphela kwenguquko enengqondo e-Iran kuzoba yileyo eyalethwa ama-Irani uqobo, hhayi abekwe ngaphandle yilabo abanezinhloso ezimbi kanye nesisekelo sezaba ezakhiwe.

Akekho ofuna ukubona impinda yezinqubomgomo zase-US e-Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Yemen naseSyria okuholele ekuchithekeni kwegazi okuhlasimulisayo nokudale isihlava samaphekula kanye nenkinga yababaleki eYurophu.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuqaphela ukuthi i-United States izigcine ivikelekile emiphumeleni yezinqubomgomo zayo ezinodlame ngokuvimbela noma yibaphi abokufika abavela eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kuyilapho iYurophu kanye namazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi kuye kwadingeka athwale ubunzima bale nkinga.

Ukuxoxisana kabusha kwesivumelwano sase-Iran kuyisu kuphela lalabo abafisa ukuhlahla indlela yempi ne-Iran..

Izikhulu zase-Iran zigcizelele kaningi ukuthi nakuba zikulungele ukuxoxa ngezinye izinkinga nomphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe, isivumelwano senuzi ngeke siphinde sixoxwe. UMongameli Rouhani utshele i-NBC News ngoSepthemba: "Wonke amagama ahlaziywa kaningi ngamazwe abandakanyekayo ngaphambi kokuqinisekiswa kwawo, ngakho-ke uma i-United States ibingeke ihambisane nezibopho futhi isinyathele lesi sivumelwano, lokhu kuzosho ukuthi izohambisana nayo. ukuntula ukwethenjwa okulandelayo okuvela emazweni abheke e-United States.”

Akungabazeki ukuthi inqubomgomo entsha kaTrump maqondana ne-Iran inophawu lukaNetanyahu nabasekeli bakhe eWhite House abambhalela izinkulumo zikaTrump.

Kunezindaba ezintathu ezibalulekile ezisengozini.

Umbuzo wokuqala ngowokuthi ngabe osopolitiki baseMelika sebekulungele yini ukunqoba ubutha babo beminyaka engama-40 bebhekene ne-Iran futhi baxazulule ukungezwani kwabo ngezingxoxo, njengoba kwenziwa ngesivumelwano sase-Iran, noma bayaphikelela nephupho lokuketula uhulumeni wase-Iran ngezindlela ezinodlame.

Okwesibili ukuthi ngabe amazwe ase-Europe kanye nomhlaba wonke ayakuvuma yini ukubanjwa yizinqubomgomo zaseMelika kanye nezakwa-Israel noma azomelana noTrump avikele izimfuno zawo zezwe.

Iphuzu lesithathu nelibaluleke kakhulu ukuthi - ukuze kushwelezwe undunankulu wakwa-Israel olwela amalungelo amaningi kanye nabasekeli bakhe base-US - bazimisele ukudonsa i-Middle East kwenye impi ebhubhisayo futhi mhlawumbe baqale ukungqubuzana komhlaba, noma ukuthi isikhathi ekugcineni eze ezotshela u-Israyeli ukuthi axazulule udaba lwasePalestine futhi aqede le ngxabano edonsa isikhathi eside, ewumsuka wazo zonke ezinye izingxabano eMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Masingalenzi iphutha, impi iwumqondo ongenakugwemeka wezinqubomgomo zikaTrump kanye nezakwa-Israel, futhi bazobhekana bodwa uma kuqubuka enye impi eMiddle East.

Imibhalo yaphansi
1- Roger Cohen, "I-Iran's Derangement" I-New York Times, Okthoba 11, 2017.
2- Ingxoxo kaMogherini ne-PBS, "Isivumelwano se-Iran sizohlala sisebenza ngaphandle kwesinqumo saseMelika"

* UFarhang Jahanpour uyisizwe saseBrithani esidabuka e-Iran. Uke waba nguSolwazi kanye neDini leFaculty of Languages ​​eNyuvesi yase-Isfahan. Uchithe unyaka njengeSenior Fulbright Research Scholar eHarvard waphinde wafundisa iminyaka emihlanu eNyuvesi yaseCambridge. Ube nguthisha wesikhashana eMnyangweni Wezemfundo Eqhubekayo futhi eyilungu leKellogg College eNyuvesi yase-Oxford kusukela ngo-1985, efundisa izifundo zomlando nepolitiki yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. UJahanpour uyilungu lebhodi ye-TFF.