nguRobert Alvarez, Septhemba 11, 2017, I-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Ibuyiselwe kabusha ngoDisemba 1, 2017
Sekuyisikhathi sokuthola indlela yokuqeda impi yaseKorea eyathatha iminyaka engu-67. Njengoba usongo lokungqubuzana kwezempi lusondela, umphakathi waseMelika awuwazi kakhulu amaqiniso asangulukisayo mayelana nempi ende kunazo zonke eMelika engaxazululiwe kanye neyodwa echitha igazi eliningi emhlabeni. Isivumelwano sango-1953 sokulwa nezikhali esasungulwa uMongameli u-Eisenhower—esamisa “isenzo samaphoyisa” esathatha iminyaka emithathu esaphumela ekufeni kwezigidi ezimbili kuya kwezine kwezempi kanye nezakhamuzi—sesilibele kudala. Behlaselwe abaholi bezempi baseNyakatho Korea, i-United States, iSouth Korea, kanye nabalingani babo beNhlangano Yezizwe ukuba bamise ukulwa, ukumiswa kwezikhali akuzange kulandelwe yisivumelwano sokuthula esisemthethweni sokuqeda le ngxabano yeMpi Yomshoshaphansi.
Isikhulu soMnyango Wezwe sangikhumbuza ngalesi simo esingalawuleki ngaphambi kokuba ngiye endaweni yenuzi yase-Youngbyon ngo-November 1994 ukuze ngiyosiza ukuvikela uphethiloli we-reactor egcwele i-plutonium njengengxenye Yohlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo phakathi kwe-United States neNyakatho Korea. Ngangiphakamise ukuthi sithathe izifudumezi zasemkhathini siye endaweni yokugcina uphethiloli esichithiwe, ukuze sinikeze ukufudumala kubantu baseNyakatho Korea ababezosebenza ebusika ukuze babeke izinsimbi ezisetshenziswa uphethiloli ezinemisebe eminingi ezitsheni, lapho zingaba ngaphansi kwe-International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA) ukuvikela. Isikhulu soMnyango Wezwe sacasuka. Ngisho neminyaka engu-40 ngemva kokuphela kwezitha, sasenqatshelwe ukunikeza noma iyiphi induduzo esitha, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amakhaza ashubisa umnkantsha aphazamisa umsebenzi wabo—nowethu—.
Ukuthi Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo lugoqeke kanjani. Entwasahlobo nasehlobo lika-1994, i-United States yayisendleleni yokushayisana neNyakatho Korea ngemizamo yayo yokukhiqiza i-plutonium ukuze ifuthe izikhali zayo zokuqala zenuzi. Sibonga kakhulu ekukhulumeni kukaMongameli wangaphambili uJimmy Carter, owahlangana ubuso nobuso noKim Il Sung, umsunguli weDemocratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), umhlaba wasuka onqenqemeni. Kulo mzamo kwaphuma uhlaka olujwayelekile loHlaka Okuvunyelenwe ngalo, olwasayinwa ngo-Okthoba 12, 1994. Kusewukuphela kwesivumelwano sikahulumeni nohulumeni esake senziwa phakathi kwe-United States neNyakatho Korea.
Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo kwakuyisivumelwano samazwe amabili sokungabhebhetheki okwavula umnyango wokuphela okungenzeka kwempi yase-Korea. INorth Korea yavuma ukumisa uhlelo lwayo lokukhiqiza i-plutonium ukuze ithole uwoyela osindayo, ukubambisana kwezomnotho, kanye nokwakhiwa kwezizinda ezimbili zanamuhla zokuphehla amandla enuzi. Ekugcineni, izikhungo zenuzi zaseNyakatho Korea zazizohlakazwa futhi kukhishwe uphethiloli we-reactor osetshenziswe ezweni. INingizimu Korea ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekusizeni ukulungiselela ukwakhiwa kwama-reactor amabili. Ngesikhathi sabo sesibili ehhovisi, abaphathi bakaClinton babebheke ekusunguleni ubudlelwano obujwayelekile neNyakatho. Umeluleki kamongameli u-Wendy Sherman uchaze isivumelwano neNorth Korea sokuqeda imicibisholo yayo yebanga eliphakathi nendawo futhi “njengesisondele ngokumangalisayo” ngaphambi kokuba izingxoxo zifinyelelwe okhethweni lukamongameli lwango-2000.
Kodwa lolu hlaka lwaphikiswa kakhulu amaRiphabhulikhi amaningi, kwathi lapho i-GOP ithatha izintambo zokuphatha iCongress ngo-1995, yafaka izivimbamgwaqo endleleni, yaphazamisa ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela eNyakatho Korea kanye nokuvikeleka kwezinto ezithwala i-plutonium ezitholakala lapho. Ngemva kokuba uGeorge W. Bush eqokwe njengomongameli, imizamo yokuphatha uClinton yathathelwa indawo umgomo ocacile wokushintsha umbuso. Enkulumweni yakhe yeSimo SeNyunyana ngoJanuwari 2002, uBush wamemezela ukuthi iNorth Korea iyilungu le-charter "le-axis of evil." Ngo-September, UBush uyisho ngokucacile iNorth Korea kunqubomgomo yezokuphepha kazwelonke eyayifuna ukuhlasela kwamazwe asakha izikhali ezibhubhisayo.
Lokhu kwabeka inkundla yomhlangano wamazwe omabili ngo-Okthoba 2002, lapho uMsizi kaNobhala Wezwe u-James Kelly efuna ukuthi iNorth Korea imise uhlelo “oluyimfihlo” lokunothisa i-uranium noma ibhekane nemiphumela emibi. Nakuba iBush Administration yagomela ngokuthi lolu hlelo lokucebisa lwalungakadalulwa, kwakuwulwazi lomphakathi—kuKhongolose nasemithonjeni yezindaba—ngonyaka ka-1999. INorth Korea yayihambisane ngokuqinile ne-Agreed Framework, ukukhiqizwa kwe-plutonium okuqandisayo iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili. Ukuvikela ukunothiswa kwe-uranium bekuhoxisiwe isivumelwano kuze kube yilapho kwenziwa inqubekelaphambili eyanele ekuthuthukisweni kwama-reactors amanzi alula; kodwa uma lokho kubambezeleka bekubhekwa njengokuyingozi, isivumelwano besingachitshiyelwa. Ngokushesha ngemva kwesinqumo sikaSullivan, iNorth Korea yaqeda uhlelo lokuvikela amafutha enuzi asetshenzisiwe futhi yaqala ukuhlukanisa i-plutonium futhi ikhiqize izikhali zenuzi - okwadala inkinga egcwele, njengoba nje abaphathi bakaBush base belungele ukuhlasela i-Iraq.
Ekugcineni, imizamo yabaphathi bakaBush yokuxazulula inkinga yohlelo lwenuzi lwaseNyakatho Korea—olwaziwa ngokuthi iSix-Party Talks—yehlulekile, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwesekwa okuqinile kwe-United States ngokushintshwa kombuso eNyakatho Korea kanye nezimfuno eziqhubekayo “konke noma lutho”. ukuze kuhlakazwe ngokuphelele uhlelo lwenuzi lwaseNyakatho ngaphambi kokuba kuxoxiswane kanzima. Futhi, njengoba sekusondele ukhetho lukamongameli wase-US, abantu baseNyakatho Korea kwadingeka bakhumbule ukuthi ipulaki idonswe kungazelelwe kanjani Ohlakeni Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo ngemva kokhetho lwango-2000.
Ngesikhathi uMengameli u-Obama ethatha izintambo, iNorth Korea yayisisendleleni yokuba izwe lezikhali zenuzi futhi yayisifinyelela emngceleni wokuhlola imicibisholo ecitshwayo ye-intercontinental ballistic. Ichazwa “njengesineke samasu,” inqubomgomo ka-Obama yayithonywe kakhulu ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kwezikhali zenuzi kanye nemicibisholo, ikakhulukazi njengoba uKim Jong-un, umzukulu womsunguli, enyukela emandleni. Ngaphansi kokuphatha kuka-Obama, unswinyo lwezomnotho kanye nokuzivocavoca okuhlangene kwamasosha okwesikhathi eside kwahlangatshezwana nezingxabano eziqinile zaseNyakatho Korea. Manje, ngaphansi kokuphatha kukaTrump, ukuzivocavoca okuhlangene kwezempi okwenziwe yi-United States, iSouth Korea kanye neJapane-okuhloswe ukukhombisa "umlilo nokufutheka" okungabhubhisa umbuso we-DPRK-kubonakala sengathi kusheshise isivinini iNorth Korea eye yanyathela ngaso. ukuhlola kwayo imicibisholo yebanga elide nokuqhunyiswa kwezikhali zenuzi ezinamandla kakhulu.
Ukubhekana nezwe lezikhali zenuzi laseNyakatho Korea. Imbewu ye-DPRK ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi yatshalwa ngenkathi i-United States ihlakaza Isivumelwano Se-Armistice sango-1953. Kusukela ngo-1957, i-US yephula ukuhlinzekwa okubalulekile kwesivumelwano (isigaba 13d), esavimbela ukwethulwa kwezikhali ezicekela phansi kakhulu enhlonhlweni yaseKorea, ngo. ekugcineni kuthunyelwa izinkulungwane zezikhali zenuzi zamaqhinga eSouth Korea, okuhlanganisa amagobolondo ezikhali ze-athomu, imicibisholo eyethulwe namabhomu adonsela phansi, imizuliswano ye-athomu “ye-bazooka” kanye nezikhali zokubhidliza (ama-nukes angu-20 kiloton “back-pack”). Ngo-1991, owayenguMongameli uGeorge HW Bush wahoxisa wonke ama-nukes amaqhinga. Nokho, eminyakeni engu-34 eyalandela, i-United States yadedela umncintiswano wezikhali zenuzi—phakathi kwamagatsha ayo ezempi eNhlonhlweni YaseKorea! Lokhu kwakhiwa okukhulu kwezikhali zenuzi eNingizimu kunikeze umfutho omkhulu eNyakatho Korea ukuthi ithumele phambili ibutho elikhulu lezikhali elivamile elingacekela phansi iSeoul.
Manje, abanye abaholi bezempi baseNingizimu Korea bafuna ukuthunyelwa kabusha kwezikhali zenuzi zamaqhinga e-US ezweni, okungeke kwenze lutho ngaphandle kokwandisa inkinga yokubhekana neNyakatho Korea yenuzi. Ukuba khona kwezikhali zenuzi zase-US akuzange kuvimbe ukwanda kolaka lweNorth Korea ngeminyaka yawo-1960 kanye nawo-1970, inkathi eyaziwa ngokuthi "Impi Yesibili YaseKorea," lapho kwabulawa amasosha aseNingizimu Korea angaphezu kuka-1,000 kanye nama-75 aseMelika. Phakathi kwezinye izenzo, amabutho aseNyakatho Korea ahlasela futhi athatha umkhumbi we-Pueblo, umkhumbi wezobunhloli wase-US Naval, ngo-1968, kwashona ilungu labasebenzi futhi bathumba abanye abangu-82. Umkhumbi awuzange ubuyiselwe.
INorth Korea sekunesikhathi eside iphokophela izingxoxo zamazwe amabili ezizoholela esivumelwaneni sokungalwi ne-United States. Uhulumeni wase-US ubelokhu echitha izicelo zakhe zesivumelwano sokuthula ngoba zithathwa njengamaqhinga aklanyelwe ukunciphisa ukuba khona kwamasosha ase-US eSouth Korea, okuvumela ukuthi kube nolaka olwengeziwe eNyakatho. UJackson Diehl weWashington Post unanele lo mbono muva nje, egomela lokho INorth Korea ayinandaba ngempela nesinqumo esinokuthula. Ngenkathi ecaphuna isitatimende seSekela LeNxusa LeNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene eNyakatho Korea uKim In Ryong sokuthi izwe lakhe "alisoze labeka ukuvimbela ukuzivikela kwezikhali zenuzi etafuleni lokuxoxisana," u-Diehl ushiye kalula inkulumo kaRyong. i-caveat ebalulekile: "inqobo nje uma i-US isaqhubeka nokusongela."
Eminyakeni engu-15 edlule, izivivinyo zezempi zokulungiselela impi neNorth Korea ziye zanda ngezinga kanye nobude besikhathi. Muva nje, uTrevor Noah, ongumsakazi weComedy Central obukwe kakhulu I-Daily Show, kubuza uChristopher Hill, umxoxisi omkhulu wase-US ngezingxoxo ze-Six-Party phakathi neminyaka kaGeorge W. Bush, mayelana nokuzivocavoca kwezempi; UHill ukumemezele lokho “Asikaze sikuhlele ukuhlasela” E-North Korea. U-Hill wayengazi kahle noma wayehlakaniphe. I Washington Post ibike ukuthi ukuzivocavoca kwezempi ngoMashi 2016 kwakusekelwe ohlelweni, okwavunyelwana ngalo yi-United States kanye neNingizimu Korea, olwaluhlanganisa "imisebenzi yezempi yokuqala" kanye "nokuhlasela kokuqothula" amabutho akhethekile aqondise ubuholi baseNyakatho. Kwe Washington Post esihlokweni, uchwepheshe wezempi waseMelika akazange aphikise ukuba khona kwalolu hlelo kodwa wathi mancane kakhulu amathuba okuthi luqaliswe.
Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi maningi kangakanani amathuba azoke asetshenziswe, lezi zivivinyo zaminyaka yonke zokuhlela isikhathi sempi zisiza ukuqhubekisela phambili futhi mhlawumbe ngisho nokuqinisa ukuphoqwa okunonya kobuholi baseNyakatho Korea babantu bayo, abaphila ngokwesaba njalo impi eseduze. Phakathi nokuvakasha kwethu eNyakatho Korea, sabona indlela umbuso owawuzalisa ngayo izakhamuzi zawo ngezikhumbuzo mayelana nokubulawa kwabantu okubangelwe i-napalm izindiza zaseMelika ezawisa phakathi nempi. Ngo-1953, ukuqhuma kwamabhomu e-US kwase kucekele phansi cishe zonke izakhiwo eNyakatho Korea. UDean Rusk, uNobhala Wezwe ngesikhathi sokuphatha kukaKennedy noJohnson, wathi eminyakeni embalwa kamuva ukuthi amabhomu ajikijelwa "kuyo yonke into ehamba eNyakatho Korea, zonke izitini zimi phezu kwesinye." Ngokuhamba kweminyaka, umbuso waseNyakatho Korea usungule uhlelo olukhulu lwemigudu engaphansi komhlaba esetshenziswa lapho kuvivinywa njalo ukuvikela umphakathi.
Cishe sekwephuze kakhulu ukulindela i-DPRK ukuthi idedele izikhali zenuzi. Lelo bhuloho lacekelwa phansi lapho Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo lulahlwa ekuphishekeleni okuhlulekile kokushintsha umbuso, okuphishekelayo okunganikezanga nje kuphela isikhuthazo esinamandla kodwa futhi nesikhathi esiningi sokuba i-DPRK iqongelele izikhali zenuzi. UNobhala Wezwe uTillerson muva nje uthe “asifuni ukushintshwa kombuso, asifuni ukubhidlika kombuso.” Ngeshwa, u-Tillerson ucwiliswe wukumbozwa kwama-tweets anempi kaMongameli uTrump kanye nokuxokozela okwake kwaba yizikhulu zezempi nezobunhloli.
Ekugcineni, isinqumo esinokuthula esimweni senuzi saseNyakatho Korea sizobandakanya izingxoxo eziqondile kanye nokuthinta kwezinhlangothi zombili zokholo, njengokunciphisa noma ukumiswa kokuzivocavoca kwezempi yi-United States, South Korea, kanye ne-Japan, kanye nokubuyisana. ukumiswa kwesikhali senuzi kanye nokuhlolwa kwemicibisholo eyi-ballistic yi-DPRK. Izinyathelo ezinjalo zizodala ukuphikiswa okukhulu kwezikhulu zezokuvikela zase-US ezikholelwa ukuthi amandla ezempi kanye nezijeziso kuwukuphela kwezindlela zokusebenzisa amandla ezizosebenza ngokumelene nombuso waseNyakatho Korea. Kodwa Uhlaka Okuvunyelenwe Ngalo kanye nokuwa kwalo kunikeza isifundo esibalulekile mayelana nezingibe zokuphishekela uguquko lombuso. Manje, isivumelwano sokulawula izikhali zenuzi kungase kube ukuphela kwendlela yokuletha lesi sahluko sesikhathi eside seMpi Yomshoshaphansi esiphethweni esinokuthula. Kunzima ukuncenga umuntu ukuthi enze isivumelwano, uma eqinisekile ukuthi uhlela ukumbulala, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi wenzani.
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Isazi esiphezulu e-Institute for Policy Studies, u-Robert Alvarez usebenze njengomeluleki omkhulu wenqubomgomo kanobhala woMnyango wezaMandla kanye nesekela likanobhala wezokuphepha kuzwelonke kanye nemvelo kusukela ngo-1993 kuya ku-1999. Ngalesi sikhathi, wahola amaqembu eNyakatho Korea ukuze asungule ukulawula zezinto zezikhali zenuzi. Uphinde waxhumanisa ukuhlelwa kwesu lempahla yenuzi yoMnyango Wezamandla futhi wasungula uhlelo lokuqala lomnyango lokuphatha impahla. Ngaphambi kokujoyina uMnyango Wezamandla, u-Alvarez wasebenza iminyaka emihlanu njengomphenyi ophezulu weKomidi leSenate lase-US lezindaba zikahulumeni, eliholwa nguSen. John Glenn, futhi njengomunye wochwepheshe bezisebenzi eziyinhloko zeSenate ohlelweni lwezikhali zenuzi lwase-US. Ngo-1975, u-Alvarez wasiza ekutholeni nasekuqondiseni i-Environmental Policy Institute, inhlangano kazwelonke ehlonishwayo enentshisekelo yomphakathi. Usize futhi ukuhlela icala eliyimpumelelo egameni lomndeni ka-Karen Silkwood, isisebenzi senuzi nelungu lenyunyana elikhuthele owabulawa ngaphansi kwezimo ezingaqondakali ngo-1974. U-Alvarez ushicilele izihloko ku- Isayensi, lo I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, Ukubuyekeza kobuchwepheshe, Futhi The Washington Post. Uke abonakale ezinhlelweni zethelevishini ezifana nalezi I-NOVA futhi 60 Amaminithi.
