Ingabe Ufuna Impi Entsha Yomshoshaphansi? I-AUKUS Alliance Iyisa Umhlaba Eqhekeni

Ngaphambi kokuthi kuphuze kakhulu, sidinga ukuzibuza umbuzo obalulekile: Ngabe ngempela - ngiqonde ngempela - sifuna iMpi Yomshoshaphansi entsha neChina?

Ngoba kulapho abaphathi beBiden basihambisa khona ngokusobala. Uma udinga ubufakazi, hlola okwenyanga edlule isaziso yombimbi lwezempi lwe-“AUKUS” (Australia, United Kingdom, US) e-Asia. Ngikholwe, kwesabeka kakhulu (futhi kunobandlululo) kunesivumelwano somkhumbi-ngwenya esinamandla enuzi kanye ne-French diplomatic kerfuffle eyayibusa ukusakazwa kwabezindaba ngakho. Ngokugxila ekuphenduleni kweFrance ethukuthele kakhulu ekulahlekelweni yisivumelwano sabo sokuthengisela i-Australia subs okungezona zenuzi, iningi labezindaba. ilahlekile Indaba enkulu kakhulu: ukuthi uhulumeni wase-US kanye nababambisene naye sebememezele ngokusemthethweni iMpi Yomshoshaphansi entsha ngokwethula ukwakhiwa kwamasosha okuhlanganisiwe eMpumalanga ye-Asia ngokungangabazeki okubhekiswe eChina.

Akukephuzi kakhulu ukukhetha indlela enokuthula. Ngeshwa, lo mfelandawonye wama-Anglo usondela ngokuyingozi ukuvala umhlaba engxabanweni enjalo nje engase ibe impi eshisayo, engase ibe namandla enuzi, phakathi kwamazwe amabili acebe kakhulu, anamandla kakhulu emhlabeni.

Uma umncane kakhulu ukuthi ungaphila phakathi neMpi Yomshoshaphansi njengami, cabanga ukulala usaba ukuthi ungahle ungavuki ekuseni, ngenxa yempi yenuzi phakathi kwamandla amakhulu omhlaba (ngalezo zinsuku, i-United Amazwe kanye neSoviet Union). Cabanga uhamba udlule nuclear izindawo zokuwa, wenza "idada nekhava” uzivivinya ngaphansi kwedeski lakho lesikole, futhi uthole ezinye izikhumbuzo ezivamile zokuthi, nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, impi enamandla amakhulu ingaqeda ukuphila eMhlabeni.

Ngabe silifuna ngempela ikusasa lokwesaba? Ngabe sifuna i-United States kanye nesitha sayo okuthiwa siphinde siphinde sichithe izigidigidi ezingenakubalwa zamadola ezindlekweni zamasosha ngenkathi ungazinaki izidingo zabantu eziyisisekelo, kufaka phakathi ukunakekelwa kwezempilo komhlaba wonke, imfundo, ukudla, nezindlu, ingasaphathwa eyokwehluleka ukubhekana ngokwanele nalolo lunye usongo oluzoba khona, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu?

Ukwakhiwa Kwezempi kwase-US e-Asia

Ngenkathi uMongameli uJoe Biden, uNdunankulu wase-Australia uScott Morrison, kanye noNdunankulu waseBrithani uBoris Johnson bememezela konke nabo-awuumfelandawonye oqanjwe ngokuthiwa yi-AUKUS, iningi labezindaba ligxile engxenyeni yesivumelwano esincane (yize singabalulekanga kangako): ukuthengiswa kwe-US kwemikhumbi-ngwenya esebenzisa amandla enuzi e-Australia kanye nokukhanselwa kwalelo lizwe kanyekanye nenkontileka yango-2016 yokuthenga izinkokhelo ezisebenzisa amandla kadizili kusuka EFrance. Ebhekene nokulahlekelwa ngamashumi ezigidigidi zama-euro nokuvalelwa ngaphandle kwe-Anglo Alliance, uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseFrance uJean-Yves Le Drian ubize isivumelwano ngokuthi "hlaba emhlane. ” Ngokokuqala ngqa emlandweni, iFrance kafushane ukhunjulwe inxusa lalo elivela eWashington. Izikhulu zaseFrance ngisho ikhanseliwe i-gala ehloselwe ukugubha ubudlelwano be-Franco-American kusukela ekuhlulweni kwabo kwe-Great Britain eMpini Yezinguquko.

Kuthathwe isimanga ngenxa yomfelandawonye (kanye nezingxoxo eziyimfihlo ezandulelayo), abaphathi beBiden bathatha izinyathelo zokulungisa ubudlelwano, inxusa laseFrance labuyela eWashington. NgoSepthemba e-United Nations, uMongameli Biden limenyezelwe umemezele ukuthi into yokugcina ayifunayo “iMpi Yomshoshaphansi entsha noma umhlaba ohlukaniswe waba amabutho aqinile.” Ngokudabukisayo, okwenziwa abaphathi bakhe kuphakamisa okuhlukile.

Cabanga ukuthi izikhulu zokuphatha zeBiden zizozizwa kanjani ngokumenyezelwa kombimbi lwe- “VERUCH” (VEnezuela, RUssia, neCHina). Cabanga ukuthi bangasabela kanjani ekwakhiweni kwezisekelo zamasosha aseChina kanye nezinkulungwane zamabutho amaShayina eVenezuela. Cabanga ukusabela kwabo ekuthunyelweni okuvamile kwazo zonke izinhlobo zezindiza zamasosha amaShayina, imikhumbi-ngwenya, nemikhumbi yempi eVenezuela, ekwandiseni ukuhlola, ukukhulisa amandla empi ye-cyberwarfare, kanye "nemisebenzi" yendawo efanele, kanye nokuzivocavoca kwezempi okubandakanya izinkulungwane zamabutho amaShayina nawaseRussia hhayi nje eVenezuela kodwa emanzini ase-Atlantic ebangeni eliqhakazile lase-United States. Ithimba likaBiden lizozizwa kanjani ngokulethwa okuthembisayo kwemikhumbi-ngwenya ephehlwa ngamandla enuzi kuleliya lizwe, okubandakanya ukudluliswa kobuchwepheshe benyukliya kanye ne-uranium esezingeni lezikhali zenuzi?

Akukho kulokhu okwenzekile, kodwa lokhu kungaba iNtshonalanga Yenkabazwe elingana nethi “izinhlelo ezinkulu zokuma ngamandla” Izikhulu zase-US, Australia, neBrithani zisanda kumemezela i-East Asia. Izikhulu ze-AUKUS ziveza umfelandawonye wazo njengowenza izingxenye ze-Asia “ziphephe futhi zivikeleke ngokwengeziwe,” kuyilapho zakhela “ikusasa lokuthula [kanye] nethuba labo bonke abantu bakuleyo ndawo.” Akunakwenzeka ukuthi abaholi baseMelika babuke ukwakhiwa kwamasosha aseShayina okufanayo eVenezuela noma kwenye indawo emazweni aseMelika njengendlela efanayo yokuphepha nokuthula.

Ukusabela ku-VERUCH, kudinga impendulo yezempi kanye nomfelandawonye oqhathaniswayo uzoshesha. Akufanele yini silindele ukuthi abaholi baseChina basabele ekwakheni i-AUKUS ngohlobo lwabo olufanayo? Okwamanje, uhulumeni waseChina okhulumela uphakamise ukuthi ababambisene ne-AUKUS "kufanele basuse umcabango wabo weCold War" futhi "bangakhi amabhulokhi ahlukanisayo abhekise noma alimaze izintshisekelo zabantu besithathu." Ukwanda kwamuva kwamasosha aseChina kokuzivocavoca okuvusa inkanuko eduze kwaseTaiwan, ngokwengxenye, kungaba enye impendulo.

Abaholi baseChina banesizathu esengeziwe sokungabaza inhloso yokuthula ye-AUKUS enikezwe ukuthi amasosha aseMelika asevele enayo Isikhombisa izisekelo zamasosha ku Australia futhi cishe 300 ngaphezulu isabalale yonkana iMpumalanga Asia. Ngokuphikisana, iChina ayinaso isisekelo esisodwa eNtshonalanga Nenkabazwe noma noma kukuphi eduze kwemingcele yase-United States. Faka kokunye futhi: kule minyaka engama-20 edlule, abalingani be-AUKUS banerekhodi lokuqalisa izimpi ezinolaka nokubamba iqhaza kwezinye izingxabano ezivela e-Afghanistan, Iraq, naseLibya kuya e-Yemen, eSomalia nasePhilippines, phakathi kwezinye izindawo. EChina impi yokugcina Ngaphesheya kwemingcele yayo kwakuseVietnam inyanga eyodwa ngo-1979.

I-War Trumps Diplomacy

Ngokuhoxisa amabutho ase-US e-Afghanistan, abaphathi beBiden baqala ukususa izwe emgomeni walo wempi engapheli yekhulu lamashumi amabili nanye. Umongameli, nokho, manje ubonakala ezimisele ukuhambisana nalabo abaseCongress, kumgomo omkhulu wezangaphandle "Blob," nakwabezindaba abangobani ngengozi ukugcwala umoya usongo lwezempi yaseShayina futhi icela impendulo yezempi emandleni omhlaba akhulayo alelozwe. Ukungaphathwa kahle kobudlelwano nohulumeni waseFrance kungolunye uphawu lokuthi, naphezu kwezithembiso zangaphambili, abaphathi be-Biden abanaki i-diplomacy futhi babuyela kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle echazwe ngamalungiselelo empi, isabelomali sezempi esikhukhumele, kanye nesiphithiphithi sezempi esinamandla.

Uma kubhekwa iminyaka engama-20 yempi eyinhlekelele eyalandela isimemezelo sokuphatha kukaGeorge W. Bush “seMpi Yomhlaba Wonke Yokwesaba” kanye nokuhlasela kwayo i-Afghanistan ngo-2001, iliphi ibhizinisi iWashington enalo lokwakha umfelandawonye wezempi omusha e-Asia? Akufanele ngabe abaphathi beBiden esikhundleni salokho ukwakha imifelandawonye ezinikezelwe ku ukulwa nokushisa komhlaba, izifo eziwumshayabhuqe, indlala, nezinye izidingo eziphuthumayo zabantu? Iliphi ibhizinisi abaholi abathathu abamhlophe bamazwe amathathu aneningi labamhlophe abazama ukubusa leso sifunda ngebutho lezempi?

Ngenkathi abaholi be abanye amazwe alapho amukele i-AUKUS, lawa maqembu amathathu abambisene akhombisa ubandlululo, ukubuyela emuva, kanye nobukholoni be-Anglo Alliance ngokukhipha amanye amazwe ase-Asia eqenjini labo abamhlophe. Ukuqamba iChina njengokuqondiwe kwayo okusobala nokwanda kwesitayela seCold War us-vs.-them amandla Ubandlululo oseluvele ludlangile ngokumelene namaShayina kanye nama-Asian e-United States nasemhlabeni jikelele. I-Belligerent, inkulumo-ze evame ukufana nempi ngokumelene neChina, ehlotshaniswa noMongameli wangaphambili uDonald Trump kanye namanye amaRiphabhlikhi akude kwesokudla, iye yamukelwa kakhulu ngabaphathi beBiden kanye namanye amaDemocrat. "Kube nomthelela ngokuqondile ekunyukeni kodlame olumelene ne-Asia ezweni lonke," bhala Ochwepheshe base-Asia uChristine Ahn, Terry Park, noKathleen Richards.

Iqembu le-“Quad” elingahlelekile kangako iWashington elihlele e-Asia, futhi okuhlanganisa i-Australia kanye ne-India ne-Japan, lingcono kancane futhi selivele liba ngcono. egxile kwezempi umfelandawonye we-anti-Chinese. Amanye amazwe esifundeni bakhombisile ukuthi "bakhathazeke kakhulu ngokuqhubeka komjaho wezikhali namandla kagesi lapho, njengoba Uhulumeni wase-Indonesia kusho isivumelwano somkhumbi-ngwenya onamandla enuzi. Njengoba icishe ithule futhi kunzima ukuyibona, imikhumbi enjalo iyizikhali ezihlaselayo eziklanyelwe ukuhlasela elinye izwe ngaphandle kwesixwayiso. Ukuthola kwe-Australia kwakusasa kuyingozi kuyanda umjaho wezingalo wesifunda futhi uphakamisa imibuzo ehluphayo ngezinhloso zabaholi base-Australia nabase-US.

Ngaphandle kwe-Indonesia, abantu emhlabeni wonke kufanele babe ukhathazeke ngokujulile mayelana nokuthengiswa kwe-US kwemikhumbi-ngwenya eqhutshwa ngamandla enuzi. Lesi sivumelwano sibukela phansi imizamo yokunqanda ukusakazeka kwezikhali zenuzi njengoba sikhuthaza i ukwanda yobuchwepheshe benuzi kanye nebanga lezikhali elicebise kakhulu i-uranium, okuzodingeka ukuthi ohulumeni baseMelika noma baseBrithani banikeze i-Australia ukuphehla isibonelelo. Lesi sivumelwano sinikela nangesibonelo sokuvumela amanye amazwe angewona amandla enuzi njengeJapan ukuqhubekisela phambili ukuthuthukiswa kwezikhali zenuzi ngaphansi kwesisekelo sokwakha izibonelelo zabo ezisebenzisa amandla enuzi. Yini engavimba iChina noma iRussia manje ukuthi ithengise imikhumbi yabo engaphansi komhlaba enikwe amandla enuzi kanye ne-uranium ebangeni lezikhali e-Iran, eVenezuela, noma kwelinye izwe?

Ngubani Olwa Ngezempi e-Asia?

Abanye bazothi i-United States kumele ilwe namandla akhulayo amasosha aseChina, kaningi icilongo ngabezindaba baseMelika. Ngokwandayo, izintatheli, ochwepheshe bezombusazwe kanye nosopolitiki lapha bebelokhu beqagela ngokunganaki ukuboniswa okukhohlisayo kwamandla ezempi aseChina. Kunjalo ukwesaba sekuvele ibhaluni isabelomali sezempi kuleli zwe, ngenkathi kubhebhethekisa ukuqhudelana kwezikhali nokwanda kwezingxabano, njengoba nje nangesikhathi seMpi Yomshoshaphansi yokuqala. Kuyakhathaza, ngokusho komkhandlu wakamuva weChicago on Global Affairs Ucwaningo, iningi e-US manje selibonakala likholwa - kepha ngokungalungile - ukuthi amandla ezempi aseChina alingana noma makhulu kunalawo ase-United States. Eqinisweni, amandla ethu ezempi adlula kakhulu awaseChina, okulula nje ayiqhathanisi kuya eSoviet Union yakudala.

Uhulumeni waseChina uwaqinisile impela amandla akhe ezempi eminyakeni yamuva ngokwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali, ngokuthuthukisa izinhlelo zezikhali ezithuthukile, nokwakha isilinganiso esilinganisiwe 15 kuya 27 ikakhulukazi izisekelo ezincane zamasosha neziteshi ze-radar eziqhingini ezenziwe ngabantu eSouth China Sea. Noma kunjalo, i-US isabelomali sezempi ihlala okungenani ubukhulu obuphindwe kathathu kunozakwabo waseShayina (futhi iphakeme kunasekuphakameni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi yasekuqaleni). Engeza kubhajethi yezempi yase-Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, namanye amadlelandawonye e-NATO afana ne-Great Britain futhi umehluko udlulela kokuyisithupha ukuya kokukodwa. Phakathi cishe Izisekelo zamasosha e-750 zase-US phesheya, cishe i-300 kukhona ehlakazekile ngaphesheya kwe-East Asia kanye ne-Pacific futhi inqwaba eyengeziwe ikwezinye izingxenye ze-Asia. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amasosha aseShayina anakho eziyisishiyagalombili izisekelo phesheya (Isikhombisa eziQhingini zaseSouth China Sea eSpratley Islands nase one eDibibouti e-Afrika), kanye nezisekelo eziseTibet. Izwe laseMelika izikhali zenuzi iqukethe amakhanda empi angaba ngu-5,800 320 uma kuqhathaniswa nalawo angaba ngu-68 emkhakheni wezikhali waseChina. Amasosha ase-US anama-XNUMX imikhumbi-ngwenya ephehlwa ngamandla enuzi, amasosha aseShayina 10.

Ngokuphikisana nalokho abaningi okuholelwe ukuthi bakukholelwe, iChina akuyona inselelo yezempi e-United States. Abukho ubufakazi uhulumeni wabo onawo ngisho nomcabango wokude wokusongela, ingasaphathwa eyokuhlasela, i-US uqobo. Khumbula, iChina yagcina ukulwa ngaphandle kwemingcele yayo ngo-1979. kuchazwe ngokufanele.

Kusukela uMongameli Ezika-Obama "zungeza i-Asia, ”Amasosha ase-US asebenze eminyakeni eminingi yokwakhiwa kwesisekelo esisha, ukuzivocavoca kwezempi okunolaka, nokukhombisa amabutho empi esifundeni. Lokhu kukhuthaze uhulumeni waseChina ukuthi akhe amakhono akhe ezempi. Ikakhulukazi ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, umbutho wezempi waseChina uzibandakanye ngokwandayo umzimba eduzane neTaiwan, yize ama-fearmongers aphinde futhi ukumela kabi nehaba zisabisa kangakanani. Ngokunikezwa kwezinhlelo zikaBiden zokukhulisa ukwakhiwa kwamasosha angaphambi kwakhe e-Asia, akekho okufanele akumangaze uma iBeijing imemezela impendulo yezempi futhi ilandela umfelandawonye ofana nowayo we-AUKUS. Uma kunjalo, umhlaba uzophinde uvalelwe emzabalazweni onjengezinhlangothi zombili onjengeCold-War ongaba nzima ngokwengeziwe ukuwuqeda.

Ngaphandle kokuthi iWashington neBeijing banciphise ukungezwani, izazi-mlando zesikhathi esizayo zingabona i-AUKUS ingafani nje kuphela nezivumelwano ezahlukahlukene zenkathi yeCold-War, kepha naku-1882 Triple Alliance phakathi kweJalimane, i-Austria-Hungary ne-Italy. Leso sivumelwano sakhuthaza iFrance, iBrithani neRussia ukuthi bakhe i-Triple Entente yabo, nayo ubuzwe obukhulayo kanye nokuncintisana kwe-geo-economic, wasiza ukuhola IYurophu yangena eMpini Yezwe I (okuyinto, nayo, eyazala iMpi Yezwe II, eyazala iMpi Yomshoshaphansi).

Ukugwema Impi Yomshoshaphansi Entsha?

Ukuphathwa kweBiden kanye ne-United States kumele yenze kangcono kunokuvuselela amasu wekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalolunye nesikhathi seCold War. Esikhundleni sokuqhubeka nokubhebhethekisa umjaho wezingalo zesifunda ngezisekelo ezengeziwe kanye nokwakhiwa kwezikhali e-Australia, izikhulu zase-US zingasiza ekunciphiseni ukungezwani phakathi kweTaiwan nezwekazi laseChina, ngenkathi kusetshenzelwa ukuxazulula izingxabano zezindawo oSouth China Sea. Ngemuva kwempi yase-Afghanistan, uMongameli Biden angafaka i-United States kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle yezingxoxo, ukwakha ukuthula, nokuphikisana nempi kunokuba kube nengxabano engapheli nokulungiselela okufanayo. Izinyanga zokuqala eziyi-18 ze-AUKUS isikhathi sokubonisana inikeza ithuba lokuhlehlisa inkambo.

Ukuvota kwakamuva kuphakamisa ukuthi ukunyakaza okunjalo kuzoduma. Bangaphezu kokuphindwe kathathu abaningi e-US abangathanda ukubona ukwanda, esikhundleni sokuncipha, ekuhlanganyeleni kwezokuxhumana emhlabeni, ngokusho kwenhlangano engenzi nzuzo. I-Eurasia Group Foundation. Iningi labahloliwe lingathanda futhi ukubona ukuthunyelwa kwamasosha ambalwa phesheya kwezilwandle. Ngokuphindwe kabili abaningi bafuna ukwehlisa isabelomali sezempi njengoba befuna ukusikhulisa.

Umhlaba wasinda ngokulambisa the Impi Yomlomo yokuqala, okwakunjalo noma yini ngaphandle kokubanda yezigidi zabantu abaphila noma abafa ezimpini zommeleli zangaleso sikhathi e-Afrika, eLatin America nase-Asia. Ngabe singabeka engozini enye inguqulo efanayo, kulokhu kungenzeka neRussia kanye neChina? Ngabe sifuna umjaho wezingalo kanye nokwakhiwa kwamasosha okuncintisana okungaphambukisa izigidigidi zamaRandi ngaphezulu ekucindezeleni izidingo zabantu ngenkathi egcwalisa isikhwama yabakhiqizi bezikhali? Ngabe sifuna ngempela ukubeka engcupheni yokudala ukungqubuzana kwezempi phakathi kwe-United States neChina, ngengozi noma ngenye indlela, okungase kuphume kalula ekulawuleni futhi kube impi eshisayo, okungenzeka ukuthi yenuzi, lapho impi ukufa nokubhujiswa yeminyaka engu-20 yokugcina “yezimpi zaphakade” izobukeka incane uma iqhathaniswa.

Lowo mcabango uwodwa kufanele upholise amandla. Lowo mcabango uwodwa kufanele wanele ukumisa enye iMpi Yomshoshaphansi ngaphambi kokuba kuphuze kakhulu.

I-copyright 2021 uDavid Vine

Landela TomDispatch on Twitter futhi ujoyine nathi Facebook. Bheka iDispatch Books entsha, inoveli entsha kaJohn Feffer, ESinglands(owokugcina ochungechungeni lwakhe lweSplinterlands), inoveli kaBeverly Gologorsky Wonke Umzimba Unendaba, noTom Engelhardt Isizwe Esenziwe Ngempi, kanye no-Alfred McCoy Emthunzini Wenkulungwane YaseMelika: Ukuvuka Nokwehla Kwamandla Amandla OseMelika noJohn Dower I-American Century Ebudlova: Impi Nezobuphekula Kusukela Empi Yezwe II.