Ibhalwe ngu-Alison Broinowski Arena, Julayi 7, i-2022
Impi yase-Ukraine ayizuzanga lutho futhi ayilungele muntu. Labo ababhekene nalokhu kuhlasela ngabaholi baseRussia nabaseMelika abakuvumela ukuthi kwenzeke: UMongameli uPutin owayala 'ukusebenza kwezempi okukhethekile' ngoFebhuwari, kanye noMongameli Biden nabangaphambi kwakhe abakugqugquzela ngempumelelo. Kusukela ngo-2014, i-Ukraine bekuyisizinda lapho i-United States ilwela ubukhosi neRussia. Abanqobi baseSoviet naseMelika eMpini Yezwe Yesibili, ababengabambisene ngaleso sikhathi kodwa izitha kusukela ngo-1947, bobabili bafuna ukuthi izizwe zabo 'zibe zinkulu futhi'. Bezibeka ngaphezu komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, abaholi baseMelika nabaseRussia benze abantu base-Ukraine baba izintuthwane, banyathelwa phansi njengoba izindlovu zilwa.
Impi eya e-Ukraine yokugcina?
Umsebenzi okhethekile wezempi waseRussia, owethulwe ngomhla zingama-24 kuFebhuwari 2022, ngokushesha waphenduka waba ukuhlasela, nezindleko ezinkulu nhlangothi zombili. Esikhundleni sokuhlala izinsuku ezintathu noma ezine futhi uvalelwe eDonbas, sekuphenduke impi enzima kwenye indawo. Kodwa kwakungagwenywa. Ezivumelwaneni zaseMinsk ngo-2014 nango-2015, kwahlongozwa ukuvumelana ukuze kuqedwe ukungqubuzana eDonbas, futhi ezingxoxweni zokuthula e-Istanbul ngasekupheleni kuka-March 2022 iRussia yavuma ukuhoxisa amabutho ayo e-Kyiv nakwamanye amadolobha. Kulesi siphakamiso, i-Ukraine izongathathi hlangothi, ingeyona eyenuzi futhi izimele, ibe neziqinisekiso zamazwe ngamazwe zaleso simo. Ngeke kube khona amasosha angaphandle e-Ukraine, futhi umthethosisekelo wase-Ukraine uzochitshiyelwa ukuze uvumele ukuzimela kweDonetsk neLuhansk. I-Crimea izobe izimele unomphela e-Ukraine. Ikhululekile ukujoyina i-EU, i-Ukraine izozibophezela ukuthi ngeke ijoyine i-NATO.
Kepha ukuphela kwempi akuyona into uMongameli Biden ayeyifuna: i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo be-NATO, wathi, bazoqhubeka nokweseka i-Ukraine '.hhayi nje ngenyanga ezayo, inyanga elandelayo, kodwa ingxenye esele yalo nyaka wonke'. Futhi ngonyaka ozayo futhi, kubonakala sengathi, uma yilokho okushintsha umbuso eRussia. UBiden wayefuna hhayi impi ebanzi kodwa ende, ehlala kuze kube yilapho uPutin eketulwa. Ku Mashi 2022 utshele ingqungquthela ye-NATO, EU kanye nezifunda ze-G7 ukuthi ziqinise 'impi ende ezayo'.[1]
'Kuyimpi yommeleli neRussia, noma ngabe sisho noma cha', uLeon Panetta avunyelwe ngoMashi 2022. Umqondisi we-CIA ka-Obama kanye noNobhala Wezokuvikela kamuva wanxusa ukuthi ukusekelwa okwengeziwe kwezempi yase-US kunikezwe i-Ukraine ngokwenza lokho okufunwa yiMelika. Ubuye wengeza, 'Ubuchwephesha bezobuchwephesha abuyi ndawo ngaphandle uma sinamandla, ngaphandle uma abantu base-Ukraine benamandla, futhi indlela othola ngayo amandla, ngokusobala, ukungena nokubulala amaRussia. Yilokho abantu base-Ukraine'—hhayi abaseMelika—'okufanele bakwenze'.
Ukuhlupheka okubi okwenzelwe abantu ezingxenyeni eziningi ze-Ukraine kubizwe ngokuqothulwa kohlanga nguBiden kanye noMongameli uZelensky. Ukuthi leli gama linembile noma cha, ukuhlasela kuwubugebengu bempi, njengobudlova bezempi.[2] Kodwa uma impi ngommeli iqhubeka, icala kufanele lihlolwe ngokucophelela—izibalo ziphezulu. Umfelandawonye wase-US wawunamacala womabili amacala ngesikhathi sempi yase-Iraq. Ngokuhambisana naleyo mpi yangaphambili yolaka, naphezu kophenyo lwamanje lweNkantolo Yamazwe Ngamazwe, noma yikuphi ukushushiswa kwabaholi base-United States, eRussia noma e-Ukraine mancane amathuba okuthi kuphumelele, ngoba akekho oseke wagunyaza iSitatimende SaseRome ngakho akekho noyedwa kubo ovumayo ukuthi inkantolo ikhiphe isinqumo. igunya.[3]
Indlela entsha yempi
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, impi ibonakala ijwayelekile: Abantu baseRussia nabase-Ukraine bamba imisele futhi balwa ngezibhamu, amabhomu, imicibisholo namathangi. Sifunda ngamasosha ase-Ukraine asebenzisa ama-drones esitolo sokuzilibazisa namabhayisikili angama-quad, futhi ecosha ojenene baseRussia ngezibhamu zokudumba. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo banikeza i-Ukraine izikhali zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, ubuhlakani namandla okusebenza kwe-cyber. I-Russia ibhekene namakhasimende aseMelika e-Ukraine, kodwa okwamanje ulwa nabo ngesandla esisodwa ngemuva—leso esingase sibhubhise izikhali zenuzi.
Izikhali zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji nazo zikungxubevange. Kodwa yiluphi uhlangothi olungazisebenzisa? Kusukela okungenani i-2005 i-United States ne-Ukraine bekulokhu ukubambisana ocwaningweni lwezikhali zamakhemikhali, nabanye izithakazelo zebhizinisi othintekayo manje sekuqinisekisiwe ukuthi ukhona ehlotshaniswa noHunter Biden. Ngisho nangaphambi kokuhlasela kweRussia, uMongameli Biden uxwayise ngokuthi kungenzeka iMoscow ilungiselela ukusebenzisa izikhali zamakhemikhali e-Ukraine. Esinye isihloko sezindaba ze-NBC sivume ngokungananazi ukuthi, 'I-US isebenzisa i-intel ukulwa impi ne-Russia, ngisho nalapho i-intel ingaqinile kahle'.[4] Maphakathi noMashi, uVictoria Nuland, uNobhala Wombuso wase-US Wezindaba Zezepolitiki kanye nomsekeli okhuthele we-2014 Maidan coup ngokumelene nohulumeni wase-Azarov osekelwa yiRussia, wakuphawula lokho 'I-Ukraine inezikhungo zocwaningo lwebhayoloji' futhi yazwakalisa ukukhathazeka kwe-US ngokuthi 'izinto zokucwaninga' zingawela ezandleni zaseRussia. Kwakuyini lezo zinto, akashongo.
Bobabili iRussia neChina bakhononda e-United States ngo-2021 mayelana nezindawo zokucwaninga zamakhemikhali nezebhayoloji ezixhaswe yi-US ezifundazweni ezisemngceleni weRussia. Kusukela okungenani ngo-2015, lapho u-Obama evimbela ucwaningo olunjalo, i-United States isungule izikhungo zezikhali ze-biological ezindaweni zangaphambili zaseSoviet eduze nemingcele yaseRussia neShayina, kuhlanganise naseGeorgia, lapho ukuvuza ngo-2018 kwabikwa ukuthi kubangele ukufa kwabantu abangamashumi ayisikhombisa. Noma kunjalo, uma kusetshenziswa izikhali zamakhemikhali e-Ukraine, iRussia iyona eyosolwa. Unobhala-Jikelele we-NATO uJens Stoltenberg uxwayiswe kusenesikhathi ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-Russian kwezikhali zamakhemikhali noma zebhayoloji 'kuzoshintsha ngokuyisisekelo imvelo yokungqubuzana'. Ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli, uZelensky uthe wesaba ukuthi iRussia izosebenzisa izikhali zamakhemikhali, kanti abakwaReuters bacaphuna 'imibiko engaqinisekisiwe' emithonjeni yezindaba yase-Ukraine yama-agent amakhemikhali alahlwa eMariupol esuka ku-drone - umthombo wabo i-Azov Brigade yase-Ukraine eyingozi. Kuyacaca ukuthi kube nohlelo lwabezindaba lokuqinisa imibono ngaphambi kweqiniso.
Impi yolwazi
Sibonile futhi sezwa ingxenye encane yalokho okwenzekayo ekulweleni i-Ukraine. Manje, ikhamera ye-iPhone iyimpahla nesikhali, njengoba kunjalo ngokukhohlisa kwesithombe sedijithali. 'Ama-Deepfakes' angenza umuntu osesikrinini abonakale esho izinto angakazikhulumanga. Ngemva Zelensky kwaba kubonakala sengathi iyala ukuzinikela, ukukhwabanisa kwadalulwa ngokushesha. Kodwa ingabe amaRussia akwenza lokhu ukuze ameme umaluju, noma ingabe abase-Ukraine bakusebenzisa ukuze baveze amaqhinga aseRussia? Ubani owaziyo ukuthi yini eyiqiniso?
Kule mpi entsha, ohulumeni balwela ukulawula ukulandisa. I-Russia ivala i-Instagram; I-China ivimbela i-Google. OwayenguNgqongqoshe Wezokuxhumana e-Australia uPaul Fletcher utshela izinkundla zokuxhumana ukuthi zivimbe konke okuqukethwe kwabezindaba zombuso waseRussia. I-United States ivala i-RA, insizakalo yezindaba yaseMoscow yolimi lwesiNgisi, futhi i-Twitter (pre-Musk) ikhansela ngokulalela ama-akhawunti ezintatheli ezizimele. I-YouTube isusa amavidiyo aphikisayo mayelana namacala empi yaseRussia e-Bucha aboniswe ngu-Maxar. Kodwa qaphela ukuthi i-YouTube ingeka-Google, a Usonkontileka we-Pentagon osebenzisana nezinhlangano zezobunhloli zase-US, futhi uMaxar ungumnikazi we-Google Earth, ekabani izithombe ezivela e-Ukraine ziyangabaza. I-RA, TASS kanye ne-Al-Jazeera babika ukusebenza kwamabutho e-Azov, kuyilapho i-CNN kanye ne-BBC bekhomba ababuthelwe base-Chechen kanye ne-Wagner Group yamasosha aseRussia asebenzayo e-Ukraine. Ukulungiswa kwemibiko engathembekile kumbalwa. Isihloko ku The Sydney Morning Herald Ngomhla ziyi-13 kuMbasa 2022 kufundeka ukuthi, 'Izimangalo "zezindaba ezingezona zangempela" zaseRussia zingamanga, kusho ochwepheshe bamacala empi e-Australia'.
Ngomhla zingama-24 kuNdasa wezi-2022, izithunywa eziyi-141 kuMkhandlu-jikelele we-UN avotela evumelana nesinqumo esibambe iRussia ibe necala lenhlekelele yobuntu nokucela ukuthi kumiswe ukulwa. Cishe wonke amalungu e-G20 avotele ukuvumelana naye, ebonisa ukuphawula kwabezindaba kanye nemibono yomphakathi emazweni awo. Amanxusa amahlanu avotele ngokumelene nayo, kwathi amashumi amathathu nesishiyagalombili asala, okuhlanganisa i-China, i-India, i-Indonesia kanye nawo wonke amanye amazwe e-ASEAN ngaphandle kwaseSingapore. Alikho iningi lezwe lamaSulumane elaseka lesi sinqumo; kanjalo no-Israel, lapho inkumbulo yokubulawa kwamaJuda acishe abe ngu-34,000 eBabi Yar eduze kwaseKyiv ngoSepthemba 1941 yibutho laseJalimane ingenakucimeka. Ngemva kokuhlanganyela ukuhlupheka kweRussia eMpini Yezwe Yesibili, u-Israyeli wenqaba ukuxhasa isinqumo se-US eMkhandlwini Wezokuphepha we-UN ngomhla zingama-25 kuFebhuwari 2022, nowahluleka.
Hhayi kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Iraq kwe-2003 umbono wezwe uhlukaniswe kakhulu. Hhayi kusukela ngeMpi Yomshoshaphansi kunezizwe eziningi kangaka ezimelene neRussia. Ngasekupheleni kukaMashi, kwagxilwa kakhulu eBucha, enyakatho yeKyiv, lapho imibiko ethusayo yabantu ababulawa ngesihluku iphakamisa ukuthi amaRussia, uma kungenjalo abulala abantu, okungenani babengamaqaba. Izinkulumo eziphikisayo zivele ngokushesha ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, ezinye zavalwa ngokushesha. Ezinye izenzakalo ezishaqisayo zenzekile, kodwa singaqiniseka kanjani ukuthi ezinye azizange zihlelwe? Izithombe ezihlolwe kaningi zamathoyizi acwebile agxishiwe alele ngobunono phezu komonakalo kubukeka sengathi umsolwa kulabo abajwayelene nomsebenzi wama-White Helmet oxhaswe yi-Europe eSyria. EMariupol, inkundla yemidlalo yeshashalazi lapho izakhamuzi zazikhoseliswe ngezansi yaqhunyiswa ngamabhomu, kwacekelwa phansi isibhedlela sokubeletha. Imicibisholo kubikwa ukuthi idutshulwe esiteshini sesitimela eKramatorsk lapho izinkumbi zabantu bezizama ukubaleka. Nakuba abezindaba abavamile baseNtshonalanga bayamukele ngokungagxeki imibiko yase-Ukraine esola iRussia ngakho konke lokhu kuhlasela, ezinye izintatheli ezizimele ziye zaphakamisa ukungabaza okukhulu. Abanye baye bathi Ukuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu kwasetiyetha kwakuwumcimbi wefulegi lamanga lase-Ukraine nokuthi isibhedlela sasikhishwe futhi sahlala i-Azov Brigade ngaphambi kokuba iRussia isihlasele, nokuthi imicibisholo emibili yaseKramatorsk kwakungeye-Ukrainian, edutshulwe endaweni yase-Ukraine.
EMoscow, impi yolwazi ibonakala sengathi ilahlekile. Ukusakazwa kwethelevishini okusezingeni lokugcwala kanye nokuphawula kwabezindaba kuye kwanqoba lezo zinhliziyo nezingqondo zaseNtshonalanga ezazingabaza noma ziphikisana nokungenelela kwe-US phakathi nezimpi zaseVietnam nase-Iraq. Nalapha kufanele siqaphe. Ungakhohlwa ukuthi i-United States izihalalisela ngokuqhuba umsebenzi wokuphatha imiyalezo osezingeni eliphezulu, okhiqizayo 'inkulumo-ze eyinkimbinkimbi ehloselwe ukugqugquzela ukwesekwa komphakathi nezikhulu'. I-American National Endowment for Democracy ixhasa ngezimali ulimi lwesiNgisi oluvelele Kyiv Independent, imibiko yabo ye-pro-Ukrainian-eminye etholakala ku-Azov Brigade-isakazwa ngokungagxeki yizitolo ezifana ne-CNN, i-Fox News kanye ne-SBS. Umzamo wamazwe ngamazwe ongakaze ubonwe uholwa 'isikhungo sobudlelwane bomphakathi' saseBrithani, i-PR-Network, kanye 'nenhlangano yezobunhloli kubantu', iBellingcat yase-UK- kanye ne-US exhaswe yi-US. Izizwe ezisebenzisanayo zibe yimpumelelo, uMqondisi we-CIA uWilliam Burns ngokungananazi wafakaza mhla zi-3 kuNdasa, 'ekuboniseni umhlaba wonke ukuthi lokhu kuwubudlova obuhleliwe futhi obungaphenduki'.
Kodwa iyini inhloso yase-US? Inkulumo-ze yempi ihlale idimoni ngesitha, kepha inkulumo-ze yaseMelika edala u-Putin izwakala ijwayelekile ezimpini zangaphambilini eziholwa yi-US zokushintsha umbuso. UBiden ubize uPutin ngokuthi 'ungubhusha' 'ongeke ahlale emandleni', yize uNobhala Wezwe u-Blinken kanye no-Olaf Scholz we-NATO bephike ngokushesha ukuthi i-United States ne-NATO bafuna izinguquko zombuso eRussia. Ekhuluma okungeyona irekhodi emabuthweni aseMelika ePoland ngomhla zingama-25 kuNdasa, uBiden waphinda washelela, ethi 'uma ukhona [e-Ukraine]', ngenkathi owayengumeluleki weDemocratic Alliance U-Leon Panetta wanxusa, 'Kufanele siqhubeke nempi. Lona umdlalo wamandla. UPutin uyawaqonda amandla; akayiqondi ngempela idiplomacy…'.
Abezindaba baseNtshonalanga bayaqhubeka nalokhu kulahlwa kweRussia noPutin, asebemhlanganise namademoni iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi. Kulabo abasanda kuphikisa 'ukukhansela isiko' kanye 'namaqiniso angamanga', ukushisekela izwe okusha okuhlangene kungase kubonakale kukhulula. Isekela abantu base-Ukraine abahluphekayo, isola iRussia, futhi ithethelela i-United States ne-NATO nganoma yisiphi isibopho.
Izixwayiso zazirekhodiwe
I-Ukraine yaba i-republic yaseSoviet ngo-1922 futhi, nayo yonke iSoviet Union, yahlushwa iHolodomor, Indlala Enkulu eyabangelwa ukuqoqwa kwezolimo ngempoqo okwafa izigidi zabantu base-Ukraine, kusukela ngo-1932 kuya ku-1933. I-Ukraine yahlala eSoviet Union. kwaze kwaba yilapho eyokugcina iwa ngo-1991, lapho isizimele futhi ingathathi hlangothi. Bekubikezelwa ukuthi ukunqoba kwaseMelika kanye nokuhlazeka kweSoviet ekugcineni kuzodala ukungqubuzana phakathi kwabaholi ababili abanjengoBiden noPutin.
Ngo-1991, i-United States ne-United Kingdom baphinda lokho izikhulu zaseMelika ezazikutshele uMongameli Gorbachev ngo-1990: ukuthi i-NATO izokwandisa 'hhayi iyintshi eyodwa' eMpumalanga. Kodwa iye, ithatha amazwe aseBaltic nasePoland—amazwe ayishumi nane esewonke. Ukuzithiba kanye nezokuxhumana kwasebenza kafushane ngo-1994, lapho iMemorandamu yaseBudapest ivimbela iRussian Federation, i-United States kanye ne-United Kingdom ukuthi zisabise noma zisebenzise amandla ezempi noma ukucindezela kwezomnotho ngokumelene ne-Ukraine, Belarus noma Kazakhstan 'ngaphandle kokuzivikela noma ngenye indlela ngokuvumelana i I-Charter yeZizwe Ezihlangene'. Ngenxa yezinye izivumelwano, phakathi kuka-1993 no-1996 amazwe amathathu ayengama-republic aseSoviet ayeka izikhali zenuzi, into i-Ukraine engase izisole ngayo manje futhi iBelarus ingase ihoxise.
Ngo-1996 i-United States yamemezela ukuzimisela kwayo ukwandisa i-NATO, futhi i-Ukraine neGeorgia yanikezwa ithuba lokufuna ubulungu. Ngo-2003-05, 'izinguquko zombala' ezimelene neRussia zenzeka eGeorgia, eKyrgyzstan nase-Ukraine, kanti lokhu kwakamuva kwabonwa njenge. umklomelo omkhulu eMpini Yomshoshaphansi entsha. UPutin wabhikisha kaningi emelene nokwanda kwe-NATO futhi waphikisana nobulungu be-Ukraine, okungenzeka ukuthi amazwe aseNtshonalanga agcina ephila. Ngo-2007, ochwepheshe benqubomgomo yezangaphandle abangamashumi amahlanu abavelele babhalela uMongameli uBill Clinton bephikisana nokwandiswa kwe-NATO, bekubiza ngokuthi.'iphutha lenqubomgomo yezilinganiso zomlando'. Phakathi kwabo kwakukhona uGeorge Kennan, usomlomo waseMelika kanye nochwepheshe waseRussia, owakugxeka ngokuthi 'iphutha elibulala kakhulu lenqubomgomo yaseMelika kuyo yonke inkathi yangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi'. Noma kunjalo, ngo-April 2008 i-NATO, ngokuyala kukaMongameli uGeorge W. Bush, yabiza i-Ukraine neGeorgia ukuba iyijoyine. Eqaphela ukuthi ukudonsela i-Ukraine emzileni waseNtshonalanga kungalimaza uPutin ekhaya naphesheya, uMongameli wase-Ukraine osekela iRussia uViktor Yanukovych. wenqabile ukusayina Isivumelwano Senhlangano ne-EU.
Izixwayiso zaqhubeka. Ngo-2014, uHenry Kissinger waveza ukuthi ukuba ne-Ukraine ku-NATO kuzoyenza inkundla yemidlalo yaseshashalazini yokubhekana ne-East-West. Anthony Blinken, ngaleso sikhathi eMnyangweni Wezwe ka-Obama, weluleka izethameli eBerlin ngokumelene ne-US ephikisana neRussia e-Ukraine. 'Uma udlala endaweni yezempi e-Ukraine, udlalela amandla eRussia, ngoba iRussia iseduze nendawo', esho. 'Noma yini esiyenzile njengamazwe ngokweseka amasosha e-Ukraine kungenzeka ifaniswe bese iphindwe kabili futhi iphindwe kathathu futhi iphindwe kane yiRussia.'
Kodwa ngo-February 2014 e-United States wasekela ukuketulwa kukaMaidan lokho kwakhipha uYanukovych. I uhulumeni omusha wase-Ukraine wavala ulimi lwesiRashiya futhi wahlonipha amaNazi esikhathi esidlule namanje, naphezu kokubulawa kukaBabi Yar nokubulawa kwabantu abangu-1941 30,000 e-Odessa ngo-2014, ikakhulukazi amaJuda. Amavukelambuso aseDonetsk naseLuhansk, esekelwa yiRussia, ahlaselwa entwasahlobo ka-XNUMX emsebenzini 'wokulwa namaphekula' nguhulumeni waseKyiv, esekelwa abaqeqeshi bezempi base-US nezikhali zase-US. I-plebiscite, noma 'ireferendamu yesimo', yaba ebanjelwe eCrimea, futhi ngenxa yokusekelwa okungamaphesenti angu-97 kwababekhona abantu abangamaphesenti angu-84, iRussia yaphinde yathatha le nhlonhlo ebalulekile.
Imizamo yokuqeda ukungqubuzana kwe-Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe yaveza izivumelwano ezimbili zaseMinsk zika-2014 no-2015. Nakuba bathembisa ukuzibusa esifundeni saseDonbas, ukulwa kwaqhubeka lapho. UZelensky wayephikisana nokuphikiswa okuboshelwe eRussia kanye ne izivumelwano zokuthula akhethwa ukuba azifeze. Emzuliswaneni wokugcina wezingxoxo zaseMinsk, ezaphetha emasontweni amabili nje ngaphambi kokuhlasela kweRussia ngoFebhuwari, 'isithiyo esibalulekile', The Washington Post kubika, 'kwakuwukuphikisa kuka-Kyiv ekuxoxisaneni nama-separatists asekela iRussia'. Njengoba izingxoxo zazima, the Thumela wavuma, 'akukacaci ukuthi ingakanani ingcindezi i-United States eyibeka ku-Ukraine ukuze ifinyelele ukuvumelana neRussia'.
UMongameli u-Obama wayegodle ukuhlomisa i-Ukraine ngokumelene neRussia, futhi kwakunguTrump, owangena esikhundleni sakhe, okwakuthiwa uRussophile, owenza njalo. NgoMashi 2021, uZelensky wayala ukuthi kuphinde kuthathwe iCrimea futhi wathumela amasosha emngceleni, esebenzisa ama-drones ngokwephula izivumelwano zaseMinsk. Ngo-Agasti, iWashington neKiev yasayina i-a US-Ukraine Strategic Defense Framework, ethembisa ukwesekwa kwe-US kwe-Ukraine 'ukugcina ubuqotho bendawo yezwe, inqubekelaphambili ekusebenzisaneni kwe-NATO, nokukhuthaza ukuphepha kwesifunda'. Ukubambisana okuseduze phakathi kwemiphakathi yabo yezobunhloli kwanikezwa 'ukusekela ukuhlela amasosha kanye nemisebenzi yokuzivikela'. Ezinyangeni ezimbili kamuva, i-US-Ukraine I-Charter on Strategic Partnership imemezele ukwesekwa kweMelika 'kwezifiso ze-Ukraine zokujoyina i-NATO' kanye nesimo sayo 'njenge-NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner', ihlinzeka i-Ukraine ngokukhuphuka kwezikhali ze-NATO futhi ihlinzeka ngokuhlanganisa.[5]
I-United States ifuna abambisene ne-NATO njengezwe elivikelekile ngokumelene neRussia, kodwa 'ubambiswano' luyasilela ekuvikeleni i-Ukraine. Ngokulinganayo, iRussia ifuna izifundazwe ezivikelekile phakathi kwayo ne-NATO. Eziphindiselela ezivumelwaneni zase-US-Ukraine, uPutin ngoDisemba 2021 wathi iRussia ne-Ukraine ayisebona 'abantu oyedwa'. Ngomhla ziyi-17 kuFebhuwari 2022, uBiden wabikezela ukuthi iRussia izohlasela i-Ukraine ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezilandelayo. Ukuhlasela kwe-Donbas kwase-Ukraine kuqinisiwe. Ezinsukwini ezine kamuva, uPutin wamemezela ukuzimela kweDonbas, okwakunayo iRussia kuze kube yileso sikhathi ngenxa yesimo sokuzimela noma sokuzinqumela. 'IMpi Enkulu Yezwe Lobaba' yaqala ezinsukwini ezimbili kamuva.
Ingabe i-Ukraine izosindiswa?
Izandla zombili ziboshelwe emhlane, i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo be-NATO banezikhali kuphela nezijeziso abangazinikeza. Kodwa ukuvimbela ukungeniswa okuvela eRussia, ukuvala ukufinyelela kweRussia ekutshalweni kwezimali kwamanye amazwe, nokuvala ukufinyelela kweRussia ohlelweni lokushintshaniswa kwebhange le-SWIFT ngeke kusindise i-Ukraine: ngosuku lokuqala ngemva kokuhlasela. U-Biden waze wavuma ukuthi 'Izijeziso azikaze zivimbe', futhi umkhulumeli ka-Boris Johnson washo ngokungananazi ukuthi unswinyo 'izokwehlisa umbuso kaPutin'. Kodwa unswinyo aluzange lukhiqize umphumela ofunwa yiMelika eCuba, North Korea, China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela nanoma yikuphi okunye. Esikhundleni sokukhipha igazi ekuhanjisweni, iRussia izoyinqoba impi, ngoba uPutin kufanele. Kodwa uma i-NATO iyijoyina, konke ukubheja kuvaliwe.
I-Moscow kungenzeka ithole ukulawula unomphela kwe-Mariupol, i-Donetsk ne-Luhansk, futhi ithole ibhuloho eliya e-Crimea kanye nendawo esempumalanga yoMfula i-Dneiper lapho ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba wezolimo kanye nemithombo yamandla e-Ukraine ikhona. IGulf of Odessa kanye noLwandle Lwase-Azov zinezinqolobane zikawoyela negesi, ezingase ziqhubeke zithunyelwa eYurophu, ezidingayo. Ukuthunyelwa kukakolweni eChina kuzoqhubeka. Yonke enye i-Ukraine, inqatshelwe ubulungu be-NATO, ingaba yicala likabhasikidi wezomnotho. Amazwe adinga ukuthunyelwa kwe-Russian kwamanye amazwe agwema amadola ase-US futhi ahweba ngama-ruble. Isikweletu somphakathi saseRussia singamaphesenti angu-18, siphansi kakhulu kunase-United States, Australia kanye nezinye izizwe eziningi. Naphezu kwezijeziso, kuphela ukuvinjelwa kwamandla okuphelele kuzothinta kakhulu iRussia, futhi lokho akunakwenzeka.
Abantu base-Australia badonsa kuphela ama-akhawunti emidiya ajwayelekile. Iningi lishaqekile ukuhlupheka okutholwa abantu base-Ukraine, futhi Amaphesenti angama-81 afuna i-Australia yeseke i-Ukraine ngosizo lwabantu, izikhali zempi kanye nezijeziso. Izilaleli ze-studio zama-ABC Q + A Uhlelo lwangomhla zi-3 kuNdasa lwamukele kakhulu ukuxoshwa kukamethuli we-Stan Grant insizwa eyabuza ngokwephulwa kwe-Minsk Accords. Kepha labo abahlobana ne-Ukraine — umfelandawonye wase-US olahlwayo — kufanele bacabangele ukufana kwayo ne-Australia.
UMongameli Zelensky uxwayise iphalamende lase-Australia ngomhla zingama-31 kuNdasa ngezinsongo ezibhekene ne-Australia, ngokusobala ezivela eChina. Umyalezo wakhe wawuwukuthi asinakuthembela e-United States ukuthi ithumele amasosha noma izindiza ukuze zivikele i-Australia njengoba i-Ukraine ingenza. Ubonakala eqonda ukuthi i-Ukraine iyisibambiso somonakalo ohlelweni olude lweBrithani ne-United States, oluhlose ukushintsha umbuso. Uyazi ukuthi inhloso yokusungula i-NATO kwakuwukuphikisana neSoviet Union. Ohulumeni base-Australia abalandelanayo baye baphumelela ukufuna isiqinisekiso esibhaliwe—i-ANZUS engasihlinzeki—sokuthi i-United States izovikela i-Australia. Kodwa umyalezo ucacile. Izwe lakini ngelakho ukuthi ulivikele, kusho i-United States. Umphathi Wezempi WaseMelika muva nje ukhombe ezifundweni zase-Ukraine kubalingani baseMelika, bebuza, 'Ingabe bazimisele ukufela izwe labo?' Ukhulume ngeTaiwan, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi ukhuluma nge-Australia. Esikhundleni sokunaka, ngaleso sikhathi uNdunankulu uScott Morrison walingisa inkulumo yomongameli baseMelika besikhathi esidlule ngombuso omubi kanye ne-eksisi yobubi, ngezinkulumo 'zomugqa obomvu' kanye 'ne-arc of autocracy'.
Okwenzeka e-Ukraine kuzobonisa i-Australia ukuthi abalingani bethu baseMelika bathembeke kangakanani. Kufanele kwenze ongqongqoshe bethu abalindele impi neChina bacabange ukuthi ngubani ozosivikela futhi ozoyinqoba.
[1] IWashington izimisele, I-Asia Times waphetha, 'ukucekela phansi umbuso kaPutin, uma kunesidingo ngokwandisa impi yase-Ukraine isikhathi eside ngokwanele ukopha iRussia yomile'.
[2] Ubugebengu bokuhlukumeza noma ubugebengu obuphikisana nokuthula ukuhlela, ukuqaliswa, noma ukubulawa kwesenzo esikhulu nesibucayi sobudlova kusetshenziswa ibutho lezempi lombuso. Lobu bugebengu ngaphansi kwe-ICC buqale ukusebenza ngo-2017 (U-Ben Saul, 'Ukubulawa, ukuhlukunyezwa: I-Australia Kumele Iphushe Ukuze Ibambe I-Russia I-Akhawunti', I-Sydney Morning Herald, 7 Ephreli 2022.
[3] UDon Rothwell, 'Ukubamba uPutin ukuze Aphendule Ngobugebengu Bezempi', I-Australia, 6 April 2022.
[4] Ken Dilanian, Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee kanye noDan De Luce, 6 Ephreli 2022; UCaitlin Johnstone, 10 Ephreli 2022.
[5] Aaron Umlingani, 'Inxusa ushintsho lombuso eRussia, uBiden udalula izinhloso zase-US e-Ukraine', 29 March 2022. I-US yavuma ukuhlinzeka ngemicibisholo yebanga eliphakathi nendawo, ukunikeza I-Ukraine amandla okushaya izindiza zaseRussia.
