By Mel Gurtov
Njengoba bekulindelwe kabanzi, i-Permanent Court of Arbitration ngaphansi kwe-UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) yakhipha isinqumo ngoJulayi 12 ivuna icala lasePhilippines lokumemezela ukuthi izimangalo zaseChina eSouth China Sea (SCS) azikho emthethweni. * Kukho konke, inkantolo ithole ukuthi izimangalo zaseChina — ezichazwe yilokho okubizwa ngokuthi yi “nine-dash line” - endaweni enabile yolwandle kanye nezinsizakusebenza zayo ezingaphansi kolwandle azikho emthethweni, ngakho-ke ukuthi ukubuyiselwa komhlaba nokwakhiwa kwawo eziqhingini kuyaphazamisa endaweni yezomnotho ekhethekile yasePhilippines. Yize lesi sinqumo singazange sidlulele odabeni lobukhosi eziqhingini zeSCS, sacacisa impikiswano yemingcele. Lesi sinqumo saphinde sathola iChina inecala lokulimaza imvelo yasolwandle ngokwakha iziqhingi ezingezona ezokwenziwa, zokuphazamisa ngokungemthetho ukudoba nokuhlolwa kukawoyela basePhilippines, kanye “nokwenza ingxabano” nePhilippines ngemisebenzi yayo yokwakha. (Umbhalo wesinqumo uku https://www.scribd.com/document/318075282/Permanent-Court-of-Arbitration-PCA-on-the-West-Philippine-Sea-Arbitration#download).
I-China yayinqume impendulo yayo ezinyangeni eziningi ezedlule. UMnyango Wezangaphandle umemezele ukuthi isinqumo senkantolo yokulamula “asisebenzi futhi asinamandla okubopha.” Lesi sitatimende siphindaphinde izimangalo zokuzimela kweChina eziqhingini zeSCS. Igcizelela ukuthi ukuma kweChina kuyahambisana nomthetho wamazwe omhlaba, umbono ongezona izikwele ngokwenqaba kwawo amandla enkantolo yokulamula, ingasaphathwa eyesinqumo sawo. I-China izinikele ekubonisaneni ngqo nalabo abathintekayo nasekuxazululeni izingxabano ngokuthula, isitatimende sithi; kodwa "maqondana nezindaba zendawo kanye nezimpikiswano zokunciphisa umkhawulo wasolwandle, iChina ayemukeli noma yiziphi izindlela zokuxazululwa kwezingxabano zomuntu wesithathu noma yisiphi isixazululo esibekwe eChina" (Xinhua, Julayi 12, 2016, "Isitatimende Esigcwele.")
Sekukonke, bekuwusuku olubi enkantolo kwiPeople's Republic. Yize ithembisa ukungalaleli lesi sinqumo, okusho ukuthi iChina isazoqhubeka nokulwa neziqhingi eziphikisanayo futhi ivikele "izintshisekelo" zayo lapho — ibutho laso lasolwandle labamba izivivinyo zalo zokuqala zomlilo eSSCS ngosuku olwandulela isinqumo senkantolo — ekufuneni kweChina ukuthi "kungamandla amakhulu aqondayo." UMongameli u-Xi Jinping wayeveze ngonyaka we-2014 ukuthi iChina idinga ukuba "nenqubomgomo yayo yamandla amakhulu yamazwe angaphandle enezici ezikhethekile," eyayibiza ngokuthi "abaphikisi abayisithupha" (liuge jianchi). Le migomo okuthiwa izodala “uhlobo olusha lobudlelwano bamazwe omhlaba,” futhi ifake nemibono efana nokuthi “ukubambisana nokuwina,” izwi elikhulu lamazwe asathuthuka, kanye nokuvikela ubulungiswa bamazwe omhlaba. Kodwa laba baphikisi abayisithupha baphinde bahlanganisa "ukungalokothi sishiye amalungelo nezintshisekelo zethu ezisemthethweni" (zhengdang quanyi), okuvame ukuba yizaba zokwenza izindlela eziphikisana ngqo nomthwalo wamazwe omhlaba. (Bheka: http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/1201/c1002-26128130.html.)
Abaholi baseChina nakanjani babelindele ukuthi ukusayina nokuqinisekisa i-UNCLOS kuzoba wusizo ezweni. Kungakhombisa ukuzibophezela kweChina ezivumelwaneni zamazwe omhlaba, kukhombise inhlonipho yaseChina ngamalungelo abanye abantu asolwandle (ikakhulukazi omakhelwane bayo baseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia) kanye nokwenza amalungelo ayo abe semthethweni, futhi kwenziwe lula nokuhlolwa kwezinsizakusebenza ngaphansi kolwandle. Kepha izivumelwano azihlali zivela njengokulindelekile. Manje njengoba umthetho usuyiphikisile, amaShayina ngokuzumayo afuna ukwenqabela inkantolo ye-UNCLOS futhi ahumushe kabusha inhloso yengqungquthela. Abekho ohulumeni abaningi okungenzeka bakusekele ukuhlehla okunjalo.
I-US, yize ihlale isisekela isikhundla sePhilippines, ayinanto yokujabula lapha. Okokuqala, i-US ayisayinanga futhi ayivumanga i-UNCLOS, ngakho-ke isesimweni esibuthakathaka sokuphikisana nayo noma ukufaka isicelo kumthetho wamazwe omhlaba kanye "nohlelo olusekelwe emithethweni 'lapho ohulumeni bephula noma yikuphi (njengokuthathwa kweRussia eCrimea). Okwesibili, njengeChina, i-US ibilokhu ibheka kancane ngomthetho wamazwe omhlaba lapho "izintshisekelo zikazwelonke" zisengozini. Noma ngabe iNkantolo Yomhlaba Yezobulungiswa noma iyiphi enye inkantolo yamazwe omhlaba, i-US ayikaze yamukele umqondo wokuphatha okuyimpoqo, futhi empeleni iye yaziphatha ngokungathi ekhululiwe kusuka emithethweni nasezimisweni. Ngakho-ke, futhi njengeChina, umthwalo wase-US njengamandla amakhulu awamukeli ngokungaguquki inhlonipho nokunamathela ezivumelwaneni nasemibuthanweni yamazwe omhlaba, izinhlangano zezomthetho zomhlaba wonke (njengeNkantolo Yamacala Obugebengu Emhlabeni Wonke), noma izinkambiso zomthetho zomhlaba jikelele (njengalezo eziphathelene nokungangeneleli, ukubulawa kobuhlanga , nokuhlukumeza). (Bheka: www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/05/america-and-international-law.) Kokubili i-US neChina, ngamafuphi, bayayikhuluma le nkulumo kepha abahambihamba-ngaphandle uma umthetho usebenza inqubomgomo yawo.
Futhi leso yisifundo sangempela lapha — ukunganaki kwamandla amakhulu, indlela yabo yokuzenzela umthetho womhlaba wonke, kanye namandla alinganiselwe ezinhlangano zomthetho ukunqanda ukusebenza kwabo. Mhlawumbe esimweni seSCS iChina nePhilippines, manje ezingaphansi kukamongameli omusha, bazothola indlela yokubuyela etafuleni lezingxoxo bese benza isivumelwano esinciphisa inkinga yobukhosi ehlale inzima. (Bona engikuthumele kokugcina ngale ndaba: https://mgurtov.wordpress.com/2016/06/11/post-119-too-close-for-comfort-the-dangerous-us-china-maritime-dispute/Kungakuhle lokho; kepha ngeke ibhekane nenkinga eyisisekelo yokuthi ukuziphatha okugcina umthetho kungakhuthazwa futhi kuphoqelelwe kanjani emhlabeni ovame ukuba nesiphithiphithi.
* Inkantolo, osebenza ngayo ecaleni le-SCS yaqala ngo-2013, iqukethe amacala avela eGhana, ePoland, Netherlands, eFrance naseJalimane.
