Isicwangciso Sokuthula Eside Esikhohliweyo Sokuba Ngameli Abahlanu baseMelika abadlulileyo
nguNjingalwazi uJames T. Ranney (ngeenguqulelo ezipheleleyo, i-imeyile: jamestranney@post.harvard.edu).
Simele siphele imfazwe. Ungayiphepha njani imfazwe yenyukliya ngowona mbandela ubalulekileyo ojamelene noluntu. Njengoko u-HG Wells esitsho (ngo-1935): “Ukuba asiyiphelisi imfazwe, imfazwe iyakuphela. Okanye, njengoko uMongameli uRonald Reagan kunye no-Nobhala Jikelele weSoviet uMikhail Gorbachev besitsho kwingxelo yabo edibeneyo kwi-1985 Geneva Summit: "imfazwe yenyukliya ayinakuphumelela, kwaye akufuneki ilwe."
Kodwa kuyacaca ukuba khange sicinge ngeziphumo ezizeleyo zale nkcazo ingentla. Ukuba esi sicelo singasentla is nyaniso, kulandela ukuba kufuneka sihlakulele ezinye iindlela zokulwa. Kwaye ke kulele i-crux elula yesindululo sethu: iindlela ezizezinye zokusombulula imbambano-ikakhulu ulamlo lwamanye amazwe, olwandulelwa kukulamla kwamazwe kunye nokuxhaswa ngumgwebo wamazwe aphesheya.
Imbali yalo mbono. Le ayisiyombono intsha, kwaye ayingombono oqinisekileyo. Imvelaphi yayo ibuyela (1) kwisithandi sobulumko saseBritane kwezomthetho uJeremy Bentham, owathi ngo-1789 IsiCwangciso soPhuhliso lweSizwe kunye noPhakade, waphakamisa “iNkundla Eqhelekileyo Yezomthetho yesigqibo sokungavisisani phakathi kwamazwe aliqela.” Abanye abaxhasi ababalulekileyo baquka: (2) uMongameli Theodore Roosevelt, owathi ngo-1910 uNobel Peace Prize wamkelwa intetho yokuthetha ulamlo lwamazwe aphesheya, inkundla yehlabathi, kunye "nohlobo oluthile lwamandla amapolisa aphesheya" ukunyanzelisa imithetho yenkundla; (3) UMongameli uWilliam Howard Taft, owanyanzelisa "inkundla yamatyala" kunye namapolisa aphesheya ukuba anyanzelise ukubhenela ekulamleni nasekugwebeni; kunye (4) noMongameli uDwight David Eisenhower, owabongoza ukwenziwa kwe "Inkundla yezoBulungisa yaMazwe ngaMazwe" ngegunya elinyanzelekileyo kunye nohlobo oluthile "lwamagunya asebupoliseni angamazwe aphesheya abonwa kwaye omelele ngokwaneleyo ukuba afumane intlonipho kwindalo iphela." Okokugqibela, kule meko, phantsi kolawulo lwe-Eisenhower kunye neKennedy, "Ingxelo edibeneyo yemigaqo ekuvunyelwene ngayo yokuThetha ngezixhobo" kwaxoxwa ngayo kwiinyanga ezininzi ngummeli wase-US uJohn J. McCloy kunye nommeli weSoviet uValerian Zorin. Esi siVumelwano seMcCloy-Zorin, esapasiswa yi-UN General Assembly nge-20 kaDisemba ngo-1961 kodwa ayagqitywa, yamisela ukusekwa "kweenkqubo ezinokuthenjwa zokuzinzisa iimbambano ngoxolo" kunye nomkhosi wamapolisa wamazwe aphesheya owawunokuba nolawulo lwehlabathi lonke- Ukusetyenziswa komkhosi.
Uxolo Lwehlabathi Ngomthetho (WPTL) lulushwankathelo. Umbono osisiseko, ongacacanga kunesiVumelwano seMcCloy-Zorin, unamacandelo amathathu: 1) ukupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya (kunye nokuncitshiswa okufanayo kwimikhosi yesiqhelo); 2) iindlela zokusombulula iimbambano zehlabathi; kunye ne-3) iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokunyanzeliswa, ukusukela kunyanzeliso loluntu kwihlabathi ukuya kumkhosi woxolo wamanye amazwe.
- Ukupheliswa: kuyimfuneko kwaye kunokwenzeka: Lixesha leNgqungquthela yokuNqandwa kwezixhobo zeNyukliya. Ukusukela ngo-Januwari 4, 2007 Wall Street Journal yokuhlelwa ngabo babesakuba "ngabanyangi benyukliya" uHenry Kissinger (owayengunobhala welizwe), uSenator Sam Nunn, uWilliam Perry (owayenguNobhala Wezomkhosi), kunye noGeorge Shultz (owayengunobhala welizwe), Uluvo oluphakamileyo kwihlabathi liphela lufikelele kwimvumelwano ngokubanzi yokuba izixhobo zenyukliya ziyingozi ecacileyo nesondeleyo kubo bonke abanazo nakwihlabathi liphela.[1] Njengokuba uRonald Reagan wayedla ngokutsho kuGeorge Shultz: “Yintoni entle kangaka ngehlabathi elinokuqhushumba ngemizuzu engama-30?”[2] Ngaloo nto, konke esikufunayo ngoku kungumqhubi wokugqibela ukuguqula inkxaso kawonkewonke ebanzi ekupheliseni[3] kumanyathelo anokwenzeka. Nangona i-United States yingxaki, nje ukuba i-United States kunye ne-Russia ne-China zivume ukupheliswa, ezinye (nkqu ne-Israel ne-France) ziyakulandela.
- Iinkqubo zoSombululo zoSombululo kwiLizwe loMhlaba: I-WPTL yayiza kuseka inkqubo enamacandelo amane yokusombulula iimbambano kwihlabathi liphela-uthethathethwano olunyanzelekileyo, ulamlo olunyanzelekileyo, ulamlo olusisinyanzelo, kunye nokugweba okunyanzelekileyo — kwayo nayiphi na imbambano phakathi kwamazwe. Ngokusekwe kumava kwiinkundla zasekhaya, malunga nama-90% awo onke “amatyala” aya kusonjululwa ngothethathethwano nolamlo, ze amanye ama-90% azinziswe emva komlamli, ishiye intsalela encinci yokugweba okunyanzelekileyo. Inkcaso enkulu ephakanyiswe kule minyaka idlulileyo (ngakumbi i-neo-cons) kulawulo olunyanzelekileyo kwiNkundla yezoBulungisa yaMazwe ngaMazwe ibikukuba iiSoviet azinakuze zivume. Ewe, inyani kukuba iiSoviet phantsi kukaMikhail Gorbachev wenza uyavuma, ukuqala kwi-1987.
- Iinkqubo zokunyanzeliswa kwamanye amazwe: Uninzi lwabaphengululi bezomthetho bamanye amazwe bachaze ukuba ngaphezulu kwe-95% yamatyala, amandla oluntu oluntu asebenzayo ekuqinisekiseni ukuthotyelwa kwezigqibo zenkundla zamanye amazwe. Ingxaki eyamkelweyo inzima ibiyindima edlalwa ngumkhosi woxolo kwilizwe liphela kunyanzeliso, ingxaki nakuphi na ukunyanzeliswa okunjalo ngamandla e-veto kwi-UN Security Council. Kodwa izisombululo ezahlukeneyo ezinokubakho kule ngxaki zinokufikelelwa (umz. Inkqubo edityanisiweyo yokuvota / inkqubo yesininzi), ngendlela efanayo naleyo yoMthetho weSivumelwano soLwandle wayila iinkundla zokugweba ezingekho phantsi kovoto lwe-P-5.
Sigqibo. I-WPTL yiphakamiso esisisiseko esiphakamileyo esisisigxina "esincinci" (isicwangciso sethu sangoku "sokungakhuselekanga okuhlangeneyo") okanye "kakhulu" (urhulumente wehlabathi okanye ulawulo lwehlabathi okanye i-pacifism). Yona ngcamango eye yayinakekelwa ngokungalindelekanga kwiminyaka engamashumi amahlanu edlulileyo[4] ekufuneka iqwalaselwe kwakhona ngamagosa karhulumente, i-academia kunye noluntu jikelele.
[1] Phakathi kwamakhulu amajoni kunye nabasemagunyeni abaphumeze ukupheliswa: u-Admiral Noel Gaylor, u-Admiral u-Eugene Carroll, u-General Lee Butler, u-General Andrew Goodpaster, u-General Charles Horner, u-George Kennan, u-Melvin Laird, u-Robert McNamara, u-Colin Powell, kunye UGeorge HW Bush. Cf. UPhilip Taubman, amaQabane: AmaQela amaHlaziya abandayo kunye nokufuna kwawo ukuBhola iBomb, nge-12 (2012). Njengokuba uJoseph Cirincione esandula ukuhla, ukupheliswa ngumbono othandwayo "kuyo yonke indawo… ngaphandle kweDC" kwinkongolo yethu.
[2] Udliwano-ndlebe noSusan Schendel, uncedo kuGeorge Shultz (ngoMeyi 8, 2011) (ukuthumela oko uGeorge Shultz akuxelele).
[3] Iipolls zibonisa malunga ne-80% yoluntu lwaseMelika oluthanda ukupheliswa. Jonga i-www.icanw.org/poll.
[4] Jonga uJohn E. Noyes, "uWilliam Howard Taft kunye neziVumelwano zoLamlo zeTaft," i-56 Vill. L. Rev. 535, 552 (2011) ("umbono wokuba ulamlo lwamazwe ngamazwe okanye inkundla yezizwe ngezizwe ingakuqinisekisa ukusonjululwa ngoxolo kweembambano eziphakathi kwamazwe aphikisanayo iye yanyamalala ubukhulu becala.") NoMark Mazower, olawula ilizwe: Imbali yeMbono , ngo-83-93 (2012) (isindululo solamlo lwamazwe aphesheya "sisahleli ezithunzini" emva kokwenza izinto ezininzi emva kwexesha kwe-19th kunye ne20 yokuqalath ngeenkulungwane).
