NguGareth Porter, ngoMeyi 5, 2020
ukusuka I-Greyzone
Umongameli uDonald Trump ukhwebise isivumelwano senyukliya neIran kwaye eqhubeka nokuzibeka emngciphekweni wokulwa nemfazwe ne-Iran esekwe kwinkulumbuso ye-Nkulumbuso yase-Israeli uBenjamin Netanyahu ibangqina ngokucacileyo ukuba i-Iran yayizimisele ukwenza izixhobo zenyukliya. INetanyahu ayikhange igqogqe iTrump kuphela kodwa uninzi lweendaba zosasazo, ibabhala ngakubabhengeza esidlangalaleni kwinto awayeyibanga ukuba iyimfihlo ye-Iran yonke.
Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli 2018, iNetanyahu uxelelwe UTrump ngasese kwindawo yokugcina izinto zenyukiliya yaseIran kwaye wagcina isithembiso sakhe sokushiya isiCwangciso esiDibeneyo sokuSebenza (i-JCPOA). Ngomhla wamashumi amathathu ku-Epreli, iNetanyahu yathatha intetho eluntwini ngendlela ebabazekayo ababephila ngayo apho athi ibango lika-Mossad leenkonzo zobuntlola zakwa-Mossad libile yonke i-Iran egcina i-Iran. “Uyazi ukuba iinkokheli zase-Iran ziphika kaninzi ukulandela izixhobo zenyukliya…” uNetanyahu wathi. “Kulungile, ngobu busuku, ndilapha ukukuxelela into enye: I-Iran ixoke. Ixesha elikhulu."
Nangona kunjalo, uphando olwenziweyo lamaxwebhu enukliya laseIran yi-Greyzone lubatyhola ukuba bayimveliso yokusebenza kwe-disinformation e-Israeli encedise ekubangeleni isoyikiso esibi kakhulu semfazwe ukusukela oko ukungqubana ne-Iran kwaqala malunga namashumi amane eminyaka eyadlulayo. Olu phando lufumene iimpawu ezininzi zokuba ibali lika-Mossad lokufumana amaphepha angama-50,000 XNUMX eefayile zenyukiliya ezifihlakeleyo ezivela eTehran yayingeyonyani kwaye ukuba amaxwebhu ayenziwe nguMossad uqobo.
Ngokwenguqulelo yaseburhulumenteni yase-Israel, amaIran abuthathe amaxwebhu enyukliya avela kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo bawafudusela koko uNetanyahu ngokwakhe wakuchaza njenge "ndawo yokugcina amanzi" emazantsi eTehran. Nokuba ucinga ukuba i-Iran inamaxwebhu ayimfihlo abonisa ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, isimangalo esithi amaxwebhu aphezulu emfihlo aza kubanjwa kwindawo yokugcina iimpahla kunye nokugcinwa kwindawo engagcinwanga eCentral Tehran ayinakulindeleka kangangokuba bekufanele ukuba iphakamise iintsimbi ezikhawulezileyo malunga nokubaluleka kwebali.
Eyona ngxaki yayiyeyona ibango ligosa laseMossad kwintatheli yase-Israeli u-Ronen Bergman ukuba u-Mossad wayengazi nje kuphela ukuba yeyiphi na i-commandos yakhe eya kufumana amaxwebhu kodwa ngokuchanekileyo yeyiphi i-safes onokuqhekeza kuyo nge-blowtorch. Igosa lixelele uBergman ukuba iqela laseMossad likhokelwe yimpahla yobukrelekrele kwizisefu ezimbalwa kwindawo yokugcina izinto ezinabaphethe ezona mpepha zibalulekileyo. UNetanyahu ukuqhayisa esidlangalaleni ukuba "bambalwa kakhulu" abantu base-Irani ababekwazi indawo yokugcina; igosa laseMossad laxelela uBergman “bambalwa kuphela abantu” abaziyo.
Kodwa abo babesakuba ngamagosa aphezulu e-CIA, bobabini babesebenza njengomhlalutyi ophambili we-Middle East, bazichithile izimangalo zikaNetanyahu njengezisilela ekuthembekeni ekuphenduleni umbuzo ovela eGreyzone.
NgokukaPaul Pillar, owayeligosa loBukrelekrele beLizwe kulo mmandla ukusukela ngo-2001 ukuya ku-2005, "Nawuphi na umthombo ngaphakathi kwokhuseleko lwe-Iranian yezokhuseleko lwelizwe uyakuxabisa kakhulu emehlweni e-Israeli, kwaye iingxoxo zakwa-Israeli malunga nokusingathwa kolwazi lomthombo ngokufanelekileyo ube nokukhetha ixeshana ukhusela umthombo. ” Ibali lase-Israeli ngendlela iintlola zalo elizifumene ngayo amaxwebhu “kubonakala ngathi ayentlanzi,” watsho uPilar, ingakumbi xa kujongwa umzamo ocacileyo we-Israeli wokufumana "imowudi yezopolitiko-yezopolitiko" ekucingelwa ukuba uyinto enjalo.
UGraham Fuller, igqala elineminyaka engama-27 elisebenza e-CIA elasebenza njengeGosa loBuntlola leSizwe kwiPhondo elikufuphi neMpuma ye-Asiya kunye noSekela-Sihlalo we-National Intelligence Council, banikezela ngovavanyo olufanayo nebango lakwa-Israeli. U-Fuller uthe: "Ukuba ama-Israel abenomthombo obenqabileyo eTehran, bebengayi kufuna ukumbeka emngciphekweni." UFuller waqukumbela ngelithi ibango lakwa-Israel lokuba banolwazi oluchanekileyo olukhuselekileyo ekuqhekekeni “luyinto engathandekiyo, kwaye yonke loo nto inokwenzeka.”
Akukho bungqina bokwenyani
YeNetanyahu's Epreli 30 umboniso wesilayidi wazisa uthotho lwamaxwebhu ase-Iranian angathathi ntweni awayebonisa ukuba bubungqina bokunyanzelisa ukuba i-Iran ixoke malunga nomdla wayo ekwenzeni izixhobo zenyukliya. Ezi zixhobo ezibonakalayo zazibandakanya ifayile ekucingelwa ukuba yenzeka ekuqaleni kuka-2000 okanye ngaphambi kwendlela eneenkcukacha zokufezekisa a cwangcisa ukwakha izixhobo zenyukliya ezintlanu phakathi ku-2003.
Olunye uxwebhu oluye lwabangela umdla ngokubanzi kwimithombo yeendaba ngesityholo Xela kwingxoxo phakathi kwezazinzulu ezikhokelayo zase-Iranian ngesigqibo sokucocwa phakathi kuka-2003 ngu-Mphathiswa Wezomkhosi wase-Iran ukwahlula inkqubo ekhoyo yezixhobo zenyukliya eyimfihlo ukuba ibe yinxalenye yeendawo ezifihlakeleyo.
Ukushiywa kwinkcazo yemithombo yeendaba "yenyukliya" amaxwebhu ayinyani yayilula kakhulu kuNetanyahu: akukho nto malunga nabo ebanike ubungqina bokuba banyanisekile. Umzekelo, akukho nanye iqulethe amanqaku asemthethweni ase-Iranian arhente efanelekileyo.
UTariq Rauf, owayeyintloko yeOfisi yoQinisekiso loMgaqo-nkqubo woKhuseleko kwi-Arhente ye-Atomic Energy (IAEA) ukusuka ngo-2001 ukuya ku-2011, uxelele I-Greyzone ukuba olu phawu lwalusebenza kakhulu kwifayile zase-Iranian.
"I-Iran yinkqubo egunyaziswe kakhulu," utshilo uRauf. "Ngenxa yoko, umntu unokulindela inkqubo efanelekileyo yokugcina iincwadi eya kuthi irekhode imbalelwano engenayo, nomhla ofunyenwe ngawo, igosa elisebenza, isebe, ukusasazwa kwamagosa awongezelelweyo, iileta ezifanelekileyo, njl. Njl."
Kodwa njengoko uRauf watshoyo, amaxwebhu “enyukliya” amaxwebhu ayengako Ipapashwe yiWashington Post babengenabo obo bungqina bemvelaphi yoburhulumente baseIran. Kwaye babengenalo nolunye uphawu lokumakela indalo yabo phantsi kwephiko likarhulumente waseIran.
Into amaxwebhu afana ngayo luphawu lwesitampu serabha senkqubo yokufayilisha ebonisa amanani "irekhodi", "ifayile" kunye ne "ledger binder" - njengezibophelelo ezimnyama ezatyhilwa nguNetanyahu kwikhamera ngexesha leslayidi yakhe . Kodwa ezi zinokuthi zenziwe ngokulula nguMossad zaza zafakwa istampu kumaxwebhu kunye neenombolo ezifanelekileyo zasePersi.
Ukuqinisekiswa kobungqina bobunyani bekuya kufuna ukufikelela kumaxwebhu okuqala. Kodwa njengoko uNetanyahu ephawulile kumdlalo wakhe wesilayidi ka-Epreli 30, 2018, "izinto zaseIran zantlandlolo" zagcinwa "kwindawo ekhuselekileyo" - okuthetha ukuba akukho mntu uya kuvunyelwa ukuba afumane olo hlobo.
Ukubamba ukufikelela kwiingcali zangaphandle
Ngapha koko, nditsho nezona ndwendwe zakwa-Israeli zakwa-Tel Aviv ziye zavinjwa ukufikelela kumaxwebhu asisiseko. UDavid Albright weZiko lezeNzululwazi kunye noKhuseleko lweHlabathi kunye no-Olli Heinonen weSiseko sokuKhuselwa kweeDemokhrasi - bobabini bakhusela umgca osemthethweni wase-Israeli kumgaqo-nkqubo wase-Irani wenyukliya - umbiko ngo-Okthobha ka-2018 banikwe kuphela “istayile esilayidi” esibonisa ukuphinda bavelise okanye iindawo ezingaphaya kwamaxwebhu.
Xa iqela leengcali ezintandathu ezivela kwiHarvard Kennedy School iBelfer Centre yeZenzululwazi neMicimbi yaMazwe ngaMazwe lityelele i-Israel ngoJanuwari 2019 ukuze lifumane ingcaciso malunga nogcino-mpepha, nabo banikwa kuphela ukukhangela nje amaxwebhu ekucingelwa ukuba ayintsusa. UNjingalwazi waseHarvard uMateyu Bunn ukhumbule kudliwanondlebe kunye nalo mbhali ukuba eli qela laboniswa elinye lamaphepha aqulathe oko kwakusithiwa ngamaxwebhu okuqala anxulumene nobudlelwane be-Iran ne-IAEA kwaye "babekhe bayenza kancinci."
Kodwa ababoniswanga amaxwebhu ngomsebenzi wase-Iran wezixhobo zenyukliya. Njengoko uBunn avumileyo, "Besingazami ukwenza naluphi na ucazululo lwalo maxwebhu."
Ngokwesiqhelo, iya kuba ngumsebenzi worhulumente wase-US kunye ne-IAEA yokuqinisekisa amaxwebhu. Ngela xesha, abathunywa beBelfer Centre banike ingxelo yokuba urhulumente wase-US kunye ne-IAEA babefumene ikopi egciniweyo kuphela, hayi iifayile zoqobo. Kwaye ama-Israel abengakhawulezi ukubonelela ngamanqaku ayinyani: i-IAEA ayifumananga iseti epheleleyo yamaxwebhu kude kube ngoNovemba 2019, ngokutsho kukaBunn.
Ngeli xesha, uNetanyahu wayengekagqibeli kuphela ukutshabalalisa isivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran; yena kunye nomphathi kaTrump ngokukhohlakala komphathi weCIA uMike Pompeo baphembelele umongameli kumgaqo-nkqubo wokungqubana kukaTehran.
Ukuza kwesibini kwemizobo yokungekho mthethweni
Phakathi kwamaxwebhu uNetanyahu wakhanyisela kwiscreen esakhe Ngomhla wamashumi amathathu ku-Epreli, i-30 slide show yayinguye ukuzoba yesithuthi esijikelezayo esimalunga ne-Iranian Shahab-3, isibonisa into ekucingelwa ukuba imele isixhobo senyukliya ngaphakathi.
Lo mzobo yayiyinxalenye yeseti yemizobo yobugcisa yeshumi elinesibhozo ye Sha Sha-3 yeemoto. Ezi zinto zifunyenwe kuqokelelo lwamaxwebhu akhuselwe kwisithuba seminyaka eliqela phakathi kolawulo lweBush II kunye nolawulo luka-Obama ngumhloli waseIran osebenzela inkonzo yobukrelekrele yaseJamani ye-BND. Okanye ke ibali laseburhulumenteni lase-Israeli liye.
Ngo-2013, nangona kunjalo, igosa laseburhulumenteni laseJamani laseKhanada eligama linguKarsten Voigt lazisa lo mbhali ukuba amaxwebhu ayenikezelwe kubukrelekrele baseJamani lilungu likaMujaheddin E-Khalq (MEK).
I-MEK ngumbutho ochasene nomkhosi ochasayo waseIran owayesebenza phantsi kolawulo lukaSaddam Hussein njengomlo ochasene neIran ngexesha lomlo wase-Iran-Iraq. Kwaqhubeka ukusebenzisana kunye ne-Mossad yase-Israeli ukuqala ngo-1990s, kwaye bonwabele ubudlelwane obusondeleyo kunye ne-Saudi Arabia ngokunjalo. Namhlanje, uninzi lwamagosa angaphambili e-US abhatala kwi-MEK, basebenze njengabaphembeleli bezikhundla yotshintsho lolawulo eIran.
UVoigt ukhumbule indlela alumkise ngayo amagosa aphezulu e-BND ukuba awawuqwalaseli umthombo we-MEK okanye izixhobo awazinikezela ukuba zithembekile. Babenenkxalabo yokuba ulawulo lweBush belucinga ukusebenzisa amaxwebhu angenantsingiselo ukuzithethelela ngokuhlaselwa kweIran, kanye njengokubaxhaphaza amabali amade aqokelelwa kumchazi waseIraq abhalwe "I-Curveball" ukuthethelela ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq ngo-2003.
Njengombhali ingxelo yokuqala ngo-2010, Ukubonakala kwe "dunce-cap" yemoto yeShahab-3 yokungena kwakhona kwimizobo yayiluphawu lokuxela ukuba amaxwebhu ayenziwe. Nabani na ozobe le mifanekiso iqingqiweyo ngo-2003 wayecaca phantsi koxinzelelo olungeyonyani lokuba i-Iran yayixhomekeke kwi-Shahab-3 njengamandla ayo aphambili. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, i-Iran yabhengeza esidlangalaleni ngo-2001 ukuba i-Shahab-3 yayiza kungena "kwimveliso ye-serial" kwaye ngo-2003 "iyasebenza".
Kodwa la mabango asemthethweni e-Iran yayiyigriza ejolise ikakhulu ekukhohliseni u-Israyeli, owayesongele ukuhlaselwa komoya kwiinkqubo zenyukiliya kunye ne-Iran. Ngapha koko, iSebe Lezokhuselo lase-Iran lalisazi ukuba i-Shahab-3 ayinalo uluhlu olwaneleyo lokufikelela kwa-Israyeli.
NgokukaMichael Elleman, umbhali wabona ingxelo echanekileyo ye-IranUkusukela ngonyaka ka-2000, iSebe Lezokhuselo lase-Iran lalisele liqalisile ukuphucula uhlobo oluphuculweyo lwe-Shahab-3 enesithuthi esirhabaxa eqhayisa ubume be "triconic baby bhotile" ngaphezulu-hayi dunce-cap.
Njengoko u-Elleman axelele lo mbhali, nangona kunjalo, iiarhente zobukrelekrele bamanye amazwe zahlala zingazi ngomjukujelwa omtsha nophuculweyo weShahab ngokumila okwahlukileyo de kwaba kukuthatha uvavanyo lokuqala lwenqwelomoya ngo-Agasti 2004. Phakathi kweearhente ezigcinwe ebumnyameni malunga noyilo olutsha yayinguMossad wakwa-Israyeli. . Oko kuchaza ukuba kutheni amaxwebhu obuxoki ekwenziweni ngokutsha kweShahab-3-eyokuqala yayiye-2002, Ngokwexwebhu le-IAEA elingashicilelwanga -Bonise uyilo lwezithuthi ezi-reentry ukuba i-Iran yayilahliwe.
Indima ye-MEK ekudluliseni isiqwenga esikhulu semibhalo yenyukliya eyimfihlo ye-Iranian kwi-BND kunye nobudlelwane bayo be-glove kunye ne-Mossad ishiya indawo encinci yokuthandabuza ukuba amaxwebhu aziswe kubukrelekrele baseNtshona 2004, eneneni, ayenziwe iMossad.
Kwi-Mossad, i-MEK yayiyunithi efanelekileyo yokukhupha i-Iran malunga ne-Iran eyayingafuni ukuba ibhekiswe ngqo kwi-intelligence yase-Israel. Ukuphucula ukuthembeka kwe-MEK emehlweni amajelo eendaba angaphandle kunye neearhente zobukrelekrele, uMossad wadlulisa uququzelelo lwezixhobo zenyukliya ze-Iran ze-Natanz kwi-MEK ngo-2002. Emva kwexesha, yanikezela ngolwazi lwe-MEK olufana nenombolo yepaspoti kunye nenombolo yomnxeba wasekhaya ye-Iranian physics Unjingalwazi Mohsen Fakhrizadh, ogama lakhe livele kumaxwebhu enyukliya, Ngokubambisana nababhali a incwadi ethengiswa kakhulu yakwa-Israel kwimisebenzi yokufihla kaMossad.
Ngokukhuphela umzobo wobuchwephesha ofanayo obonisa isithuthi esingalunganga sokuphinda ungene kwakhona e-Iranian-iqhinga awayekhe walisebenzisa ukwenza ityala lokuqala lokumangalela i-Iran ngokhuseleko lwezixhobo zenyukliya-inkulumbuso yase-Israeli ibonakalise indlela azithemba ngayo kwi-hoodwink IWashington kunye nemithombo yeendaba yeNtshona.
Amanqanaba okukhohlisa eNetanyahu aphumelele ngokumangalisayo, ngaphandle kokuba exhomekeke kwimigangatho emibi ukuba nawuphi na umbutho weendaba okhutheleyo kufanele ukuba ubonile. Ngobuqhetseba bakhe oorhulumente bamanye amazwe kunye namajelo eendaba, uye wakwazi ukuqhubela uDonald Trump kunye ne-United States kwinkqubo eyingozi yokujongana neye yazisa i-US kwimpixano yengxabano yomkhosi ne-Iran.
U-Gareth Porter yintatheli ezimeleyo yophando oye wagubungela umgaqo-nkqubo wezokhuseleko wesizwe ukusukela ngo-2005 kwaye waye wamkela i-Gellhorn Prize for Journalism ngo-2012. Eyona ncwadi yakhe yakutshanje Sisikhokelo se-CIA Insider kwiNgxubakaxaka yase-Iran esabhalwa noJohn Kiriakou, esandula ukupapashwa EyoMdumba.
