Isibhengezo ngu isiJamani U kuqala Ukubeka phantsi izixhobo zakho, ngesikhumbuzo sohlaselo lwaseRashiya eUkraine, ngoFebruwari 16, 2023
Ngohlaselo lwe-Ukraine yimikhosi yaseRussia nge-24 kaFebruwari 2022, imfazwe yeminyaka esixhenxe yobunzima obuphantsi eDonbass eyathi ngokutsho kwe-OSCE yabangela ukusweleka kwe-14,000, kubandakanywa nabemi abangama-4,000, isibini kwisithathu sala mazwe akwimimandla eqhekekileyo - yanda yaya kuthi ga ngoku. umgangatho omtsha wobundlobongela basemkhosini. Uhlaselo lwaseRashiya yayilulwaphulo-mthetho olubi kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kwaye lukhokelele ekufeni, intshabalalo, intlupheko, kunye nolwaphulo-mthetho lwemfazwe. Endaweni yokuthatha ithuba lothetha-thethwano (uthethwano lwenzekile, enyanisweni, lwaqhubeka de kwafika ngo-Epreli 2022), imfazwe yanda yaba "yimfazwe yommeli phakathi kweRussia neNATO", njengoko namagosa karhulumente e-USA ngoku avuma ngokuphandle. .
Ngelo xesha, isisombululo se-UN General Assembly ye-2 Matshi, apho amazwe e-141 agxeka uhlaselo, sele ecele ukulungiswa ngokukhawuleza kwengxabano "ngokusebenzisa iingxoxo zezopolitiko, uthethathethwano, ukulamla kunye nezinye iindlela zoxolo" kwaye bafuna "ukuthotyelwa kwemfazwe. izivumelwano zaseMinsk” nangokucacileyo nangefomathi yaseNormandy “ukusebenza ngendlela eyakhayo ekuphunyezweni kwazo ngokupheleleyo.”
Ngaphandle kwako konke oku, ikhwelo loluntu lwehlabathi alikhange lihoywe ngawo onke amaqela achaphazelekayo, nangona angathanda ukubhekisa kwizigqibo ze-UN kangangoko avumelana nezikhundla zawo.
Ukuphela kweenkohliso
Ngokomkhosi, iKiev ikwizikhuselo kwaye amandla ayo okulwa ngokubanzi ayancipha. KwangoNovemba ka-2022, intloko ye-US Joint Chiefs of Staff yacebisa ukuba uthethathethwano luqale njengoko wayecinga ukuba uloyiso lweKiev alunakwenzeka. Kutshanje eRamstein waphinda le ndawo.
Kodwa nangona abezopolitiko kunye namajelo eendaba bebambelele kwinkohliso yoloyiso, imeko yaseKiev iye yawohloka. Le yimvelaphi yokunyuka kwamva nje, oko kukuthi, ukuhanjiswa kwamatanki edabi. Noko ke, oku kuya kwandisa nje ungquzulwano. Imfazwe ayinakoyiswa. Endaweni yoko, eli linyathelo nje elinye ngaphezulu ecaleni kwethambeka elimtyibilizi. Ngokukhawuleza emva koko, urhulumente waseKiev wafuna ukunikezelwa kweejethi zokulwa ngokulandelayo, kwaye emva koko, ukubandakanyeka ngokuthe ngqo kwemikhosi ye-NATO - ekhokelela ekunyukeni kwenyukliya?
Kwimeko yenyukliya iUkraine iya kuba yeyokuqala ukubhubha. Ngokwamanani e-UN, inani lokufa kwabantu kulo nyaka uphelileyo lalingaphezulu kwama-7,000, kwaye ilahleko phakathi kwamajoni yayikuluhlu lweenombolo ezintandathu. Abo bavumela ukudubula kuqhutyelwe phambili kunokuba bathethe bafanele bazibuze enoba bakulungele kusini na ukuncama abanye abantu abali-100,000, 200,000, XNUMX okanye nangaphezulu ngenxa yeenjongo zemfazwe ezikhohlisayo.
Ubumbano lokwenyani kunye neUkraine kuthetha ukusebenza ukunqanda ukubulala ngokukhawuleza.
Yi-geopolitics – bubudenge!
Eyona nto ibalulekileyo yokuba kutheni iNtshona idlala ikhadi lomkhosi kukuba iWashington ibona ithuba lokuyenza buthathaka ngokupheleleyo iMoscow ngemfazwe yokulwa. Njengoko ulawulo lwehlabathi lwase-USA lusihla ngenxa yotshintsho lwenkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe, i-US izama ukuphinda ibango layo kubunkokeli behlabathi – nakukhuphiswano lwayo lwezelizwe kunye neTshayina.
Oku kuhambelana noko kwenziwa yi-US kwangethuba emva kweMfazwe yoMlomo ukuzama ukuthintela ukuvela kwembangi ekwinqanaba elifanayo neSoviet Union. Ke ngoko, esona sixhobo sibalulekileyo yayikukwandiswa kwe-NATO esempuma kunye ne-Ukraine “njengesithwala inqwelo-moya esingatshoniyo” kumnyango waseMoscow njengempumelelo yayo. Kwangaxeshanye, umanyano lwezoqoqosho lwase-Ukraine kumazwe aseNtshona lwakhawuleziswa ngendlela yeSivumelwano soMbutho we-EU ekwakuxoxiwe ngaso ukususela ngo-2007 ukuya phambili – neyayichaza ukuqhathwa kwe-Ukraine neRashiya.
Ubuzwe obuchasene namaRashiya eMpuma Yurophu baphenjelelwa njengesiseko seengcamango. E-Ukraine, oku kwanda kwiingxabano ezinobundlobongela kwi-Maidan ngo-2014, kwaye ekuphenduleni loo nto nakwi-Donbass, eyakhokelela ngokufanelekileyo ukuhlukana kweCrimea kunye neDonetsk kunye nemimandla yaseLuhansk. Ngeli xesha, imfazwe ibe yindibano yeengxabano ezimbini: - Kwelinye icala, ungquzulwano phakathi kweUkraine neRussia sisiphumo sokuqhekeka okumangalisayo kweSoviet Union yona ngokwayo ithwele nzima yimbali ephikisanayo yokusekwa kwe-Ukraine. isizwe, kwelinye icala, – ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo phakathi kwawona magunya mabini makhulu enyukliya.
Oku kuzisa iingxaki ezinobungozi nezintsokothileyo zolungelelwaniso lwamandla enyukliya (loloyiko). Ngokwembono yaseMoscow, ukudityaniswa komkhosi waseUkraine ukuya eNtshona kunengozi yogwayimbo lokunqunyulwa kwentloko eMoscow. Ngokukodwa ukususela kwizivumelwano zokulawula iingalo, ukusuka kwiSivumelwano se-ABM phantsi kweBush ngo-2002 ukuya kwi-INF kunye neSivumelwano se-Open Sky phantsi kweTrump ekuvunyelwene ngayo ngexesha leMfazwe ebandayo zonke ziye zapheliswa. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba semthethweni kwayo, imbono yaseMoscow kufuneka ithotyelwe. Uloyiko olunjalo alunakupheliswa ngamazwi nje kuphela, kodwa kufuna amanyathelo athembekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ngoDisemba 2021, iWashington yala amanyathelo ahambelanayo acetywayo yiMoscow.
Ukongezelela, ukusetyenziswa kakubi kwezivumelwano ezibhalwe phantsi komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kukwayenye yeendlela zaseNtshona, njengoko kubonisiwe, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngokuvuma kukaMerkel kunye noFrançois Hollande ukuba bagqiba kuphela uMinsk II ukuthenga ixesha lokuvumela ukuxhotyiswa kweKiev. Ngokuchasene nale mvelaphi, uxanduva lwemfazwe - kwaye oku kuyinyani ngakumbi kuba sijongene nemfazwe yeproxy - ayinakuncitshiswa ibe yiRussia kuphela.
Nokuba kunjalo, uxanduva lwe-Kremlin alupheli nangayiphi na indlela. Iimvakalelo zobuzwe zisasazeke eRashiya kwaye urhulumente ogunyazisiweyo uyomelezwa ngakumbi. Kodwa abo bajonga kwimbali ende yokunyuka kuphela kwilensi yemifanekiso ye-bogeyman emnyama-namhlophe banokuyihoya iWashington - kwaye ekuvukeni kwayo i-EU's - isabelo soxanduva.
Kwi-Bellicose Fever
Udidi lwezopolitiko kunye nosasazo oluninzi lutshayela zonke ezi zidibaniso phantsi kwekhaphethi. Kunoko, baye bawela kwi-bellicose fever yokwenene.
IJamani yiqela lemfazwe kwaye urhulumente waseJamani uye waba ngurhulumente wemfazwe. Umphathiswa wezangaphandle waseJamani ngokuzikhukhumalisa kwakhe wayekholelwa ukuba "angayonakalisa" iRashiya. Ngeli xesha, iqela lakhe (iQela eliHlaza) liye laguquka lisuka kwitheko loxolo laya kutsho kwelona qela lishushu kwiBundestag. Xa kwakukho impumelelo yobuchule kwibala ledabi e-Ukraine, ukubaluleka kwayo kobuchule yayibaxiwe ngaphaya komlinganiselo, inkohliso yadalwa ukuba uloyiso lomkhosi eRashiya lwalunokwenzeka. Abo bacenga uxolo lokulalanisa boyikeka “njengabacinezeli abathobelayo” okanye “abaphuli-mthetho bemfazwe yesibini”.
Imeko yezopolitiko efana nekhaya ngexesha lemfazwe iye yavela iqinisekisa uxinzelelo olukhulu lokuthobela abantu abaninzi abangafuni ukuyichasa. Umfanekiso wotshaba oluvela ngaphandle udityaniswe kukunganyamezeli okwandileyo ngaphakathi kwekhompawundi enkulu. Inkululeko yokuthetha kunye nenkululeko yokushicilela iyancipha njengoko kuboniswe ngokuvalwa, phakathi kwabanye, "iRashiya Namhlanje" kunye ne "Sputnik".
Imfazwe yezoQoqosho - i-squib emanzi
Imfazwe yezoqoqosho echasene neRussia eyayisele iqalile ngo-2014 yathatha indawo engazange ibonwe ngaphambili emva kohlaselo lwaseRussia. Kodwa oku akubanga nampembelelo kwisakhono sokulwa saseRashiya. Ngapha koko, uqoqosho lwaseRussia lwehla ngeepesenti ezintathu ngo-2022, nangona kunjalo, iUkraine yehla ngeepesenti ezingamashumi amathathu. Ibuza umbuzo, i-Ukraine inokunyamezela ixesha elingakanani imfazwe enjalo?
Kwangaxeshanye, izohlwayo zibangela ukonakala kwesibambiso kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. UMzantsi wehlabathi uchaphazeleke kakhulu. Ezi zohlwayo zandisa indlala nobuhlwempu, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kwaye zixhokonxa uqhushululu kwiimarike zehlabathi. Ngoko ke akumangalisi ukuba i-Global South ayifuni ukuthatha inxaxheba kwimfazwe yezoqoqosho kwaye ayifuni ukuhlukanisa iRashiya. Ayiyomfazwe yalo le. Nangona kunjalo, imfazwe yezoqoqosho inemiphumo emibi nakuthi. Ukuqhawulwa kwerhasi yendalo yaseRashiya kwandisa ubunzima bamandla obuchaphazela amakhaya abuthathaka ekuhlaleni kwaye kunokukhokelela ekuphumeni kwemizi-mveliso edinga amandla eJamani. Izixhobo kunye nomkhosi zihlala zihlawulela ubulungisa bentlalontle. Kwangaxeshanye kunye nerhasi ye-fracking evela e-USA efikelela kuma-40% eyingozi ngakumbi kwimozulu kunerhasi yendalo yaseRussia, kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamalahle, zonke iithagethi zokunciphisa i-CO 2 sele zifikile kumgqomo wenkunkuma.
Eyona nto iphambili kwidiplomacy, uthethathethwano kunye noxolo lwe-compromise
Imfazwe ifunxa izixhobo zezopolitiko, ezeemvakalelo, zobukrelekrele nezinto eziphathekayo ezifuneka ngokukhawuleza ukulwa nokutshintsha kwemozulu, ukuwohloka kwendalo kunye nobuhlwempu. Ukubandakanyeka kweJamani kwidabi kuyahlula uluntu kwaye ngakumbi loo macandelo azinikele kwinkqubela phambili yentlalontle kunye nenguqu yentlalo-ntlalontle. Sikhuthaza ukuba urhulumente waseJamani aphelise imfazwe yakhe kwangoko. IJamani kufuneka iqalise inyathelo lozakuzo. Yiloo nto abantu abaninzi abayibizayo. Sifuna ukupheliswa kokudubula kunye nokuqalisa uthetha-thethwano oluzinziswe kwisakhelo samazwe amaninzi esibandakanya ukuthatha inxaxheba kwe-UN.
Ekugqibeleni, kufuneka kubekho uxolo oluvumelanayo oluvula indlela yolwakhiwo loxolo lwaseYurophu oluhlangabezana neemfuno zokhuseleko zase-Ukraine, eRashiya kunye nabo bonke abo babandakanyekayo kwingxabano kwaye evumela ikamva elinoxolo kwilizwekazi lethu.
Isicatshulwa sabhalwa ngu: Reiner Braun (I-International Peace Bureau), uClaudia Haydt (iZiko leNgcaciso malunga noBukhosi), uRalf Krämer (iSocialist Ekhohlo kwiQela Die Linke), uWilli van Ooyen (iWorkshop yoXolo kunye neXesha Elizayo eFrankfurt), uChristof Ostheimer (i-Federal IBhunga loXolo lweKomiti), uPeter Wahl (Attac. Germany). Iinkcukacha zobuqu zezolwazi kuphela
