Kutheni sisenayo i-Bomb?

NguWilliam J. Perry noTom Z. Collina, Agasti 4, 2020

ukusuka CNN

UWilliam J. Perry wasebenza njengengqongqo yezokhuselo kuphando nobunjineli kulawulo lweCarter nanjengunobhala wezomkhosi kulawulo lukaClinton. Okwangoku uyalela iprojekthi ye-William J. Perry engenzi nzuzo ukuba ifundise uluntu malunga nezisongelo zenyukliya. UTom Z. Collina ngumlawuli womgaqo-nkqubo ku INgxowa yePlowshares, isiseko sokhuseleko emhlabeni wonke esizinze eWashington, DC, kwaye usebenze kwimicimbi yomgaqo-nkqubo wezixhobo zenyukliya iminyaka engama-30. Bangababhali abanomdla kwi incwadi entsha “Iqhosha: Umdyarho weZixhobo zeNyukliya eNtsha kunye naMandla kaMongameli ukusuka eTruman ukuya eTrump.

UMongameli uHarry Truman wayengenakuqonda ngokupheleleyo amandla ebhombu yeatom xa - ngokomyalelo wakhe - i-United States yaphosa amabini eHiroshima naseNagasaki kwiminyaka engama-75 eyadlulayo. Kodwa xa wabona imiphumo eyintlekele- izixeko ezibini zingamabhodlo, kunye nenani lokugqibela lokufa elafikelela kwi Qi kelelwa I-200,000 (ngokwembali yeSebe lezaMandla leProjekthi yeManhattan) -Truman misele angaze asebenzise iBomb kwakhona kwaye wafuna "ukuphelisa izixhobo zeatom njengezixhobo zemfazwe," (Ngelixa kamva wala ukulawula ukusebenzisa i-Bomb ngexesha leMfazwe yaseKorea, ekugqibeleni akazange athathe inyathelo).

Abongameli bexesha elizayo baseMelika kuwo omabini la maqela bavumelana ikakhulu noTruman kweli nqaku. “Awunakuba nayo nje le mfazwe. Azikho iibhulldozer ezaneleyo zokukhuhla imizimba ezitratweni, ” wathi UMongameli Dwight Eisenhower ngonyaka ka-1957. Kwiminyaka elishumi kamva, ngo-1968, uMongameli uLyndon Johnson sayinwe Isivumelwano sezizwe ngezizwe ezibophelela i-US kwimikhosi yenyukliya esasebenza nanamhlanje. Ukujongana noqhanqalazo oluninzi ngeminyaka yoo-1980 nasemva kokungqinwa kwentsimbi yenyukliya, uMongameli Ronald Reagan bafuna “Ukupheliswa ngokupheleleyo” kwezixhobo zenyukliya “ebusweni bomhlaba.” Ngo-2009, uMongameli uBarack Obama wangena esihlalweni kufuna “Uxolo nonqabiseko lwehlabathi elingenazixhobo zenyukliya.”

Ngaphandle kwengxelo enjalo kunye neenzame eziphindaphindiweyo kumanqanaba aphezulu orhulumente ukuvimbela i-Bomb, isekhona kwaye iphilile. Ewe, i-US kunye ne-Russian arsenals ziye zancipha kakhulu ukususela ukuphakama kweMfazwe ebandayo, ukusuka malunga I-63,476 warheads ngo-1986, kwi-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, ukuya kwi-12,170 kulo nyaka, ngokutsho kwi-Federation of American Scientists-ngokwaneleyo ukutshabalalisa umhlaba amaxesha amaninzi ngaphezulu.

Ngoku, phantsi kukaMongameli uDonald Trump, iBhomu ijongana nento yokuvuselelwa ngokutsha. UTrump ngu cwangciso Ukuchitha ngaphezulu kwe- $ 1 yezigidigidi kwisikrweqe somkhosi wenyukliya wase-US kule minyaka mithathu izayo. Nangona sinezinto ezingcono kakhulu zokuchitha imali kuyo, ezinje ngokuphendula i-coronavirus kunye nokwakha kwakhona uqoqosho, abameli be-The Bomb baye bayakholelwa kwiCongress ukuba ixhase iinkqubo zenyukliya ukuthatha indawo yangaphantsi komgodi, iibhombu kunye nemijikelezo esekwe emhlabeni ngokungathi yiCold. Imfazwe ayikaze iphele. Uninzi lwamalungu eCongress azimiselanga kucela umngeni kumagosa ePentagon nakwiikontraka zokhuselo ezikhuthaza izixhobo zenyukliya ezintsha, ngenxa yokoyika ukuba ziya kuhlaselwa ngabachasi bazo "njengezithambile" kukhuselo.

Kwangelo xesha, ulawulo lweTrump lishiya izivumelwano zokulawula iingalo. I-Trump wahamba ukusuka kwi-Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Therapy kunyaka ophelileyo kwaye uyi ukwala ukwandisa iSivumelwano seNguqulelo eNtsha esiphela ngoFebruwari 2021. Oku kuyakusishiya kungekho mda uqinisekisiweyo kwimikhosi yenyukliya yaseRussia okokuqala ngqa kumashumi amahlanu eminyaka, kwaye ngokunokwenzeka kusikhokelela kumdyarho onobungozi omtsha.

Ke, yintoni ephosakeleyo? Siphanda lo mbuzo wethu incwadi entsha, "Iqhosha: Umdyarho weZixhobo zeNyukliya eNtsha kunye naMandla kaMongameli ukusuka eTruman ukuya eTrump." Nantsi into esiyifumeneyo.

1. Ibhombu ayizange ihambe. Kuthathe umbutho wezopolitiko onamandla ngeminyaka yo-1980, kakhulu njenge-Black Lives Matter intshukumo yanamhlanje ngokubhekisele ekubandakanyekeni koluntu ngokubanzi ingakumbi phakathi kwabantu abancinci, ukuqaqambisa indawo ngeengozi zomdyarho wezikhali zenyukliye ekugqibeleni. Kodwa njengoko ama-arsenals ehla emva kokuphela kweMfazwe ebandayo phaya kwiminyaka yoo-1990, uluntu ngokubanzi lwalucinga ukuba le nkqubo iza kuzikhathalela. Ukuxhalaba kuguqulwe kweminye imicimbi ebalulekileyo, njengokutshintsha kwemozulu, ukungalingani ngokobuhlanga kunye nokulawulwa kwemipu. Kodwa ngaphandle kwengcinezelo yoluntu ebonakalayo, nditsho nabaongameli abanjengo-Obama bakufumanisa kunzima ukwakha kunye nokugcina intando yezopolitiko efunekayo ukuze kuguqulwe umgaqo-nkqubo obanzi.
2. Ibhombu iyachuma kwimithunzi. Isebenza ngezantsi kwe radar yezopolitiko, ulawulo lukaTrump kunye nemigangatho ye pro-yenyukliya, enjeya noMcebisi woKhuseleko kuZwelonke John Bolton kunye neLizwe likaMongameli eliKhethekileyo lokuLawula iiArms UMarshall Billingslea, bayisebenzise ngokupheleleyo le nkathalo yoluntu. Ibhombu ngoku ingomnye umba amaRiphabhlikhi anokuwusebenzisa ukwenza iiDemokhrasi zibukeke "zibuthathaka." Njengombandela wezopolitiko, Ibhombu inejusi eyaneleyo phakathi kwabalondolozi ukugcina uninzi lwedemokhrasi ekuzikhuseleni, kodwa alonelanga luluntu ngokubanzi ukukhuthaza amaDemokhrasi ukuba anyanzelise utshintsho lwenene.
3. Umongameli ozinikeleyo akonelanga. Nokuba umongameli olandelayo uzibophelele ekuguquleni umgaqo-nkqubo wenyukliya wase-US, kanye e-ofisini uya kujamelana nokumelana okukhulu neenguqu ukusuka kwiCongress kunye nabakhi bezokhuselo, phakathi kwezinye, ekuya kuba nzima ukwahlula ngaphandle kwenkxaso eqinileyo evela kuluntu. Sifuna indawo enamandla angaphandle yokunyanzela umongameli ukuba ahambise. Sineqela elinamandla okusebenza kumalungelo oluntu neminye imiba, kodwa ubukhulu becala, ayibandakanyi izixhobo zenyukliya. Ngapha koko, imali eninzi engena kulwakhiwo lwenyukliya ingasetyenziselwa ukuhlawula izinto ezibaluleke kakhulu njenge coronavirus, ubushushu behlabathi kunye nokulingana ngokobuhlanga. Ekugqibeleni, i-Bomb isekhona nathi ngoba, ngokungafaniyo ne-1980s, akukho ntshukumo ininzi ifuna ukuba siyiyeke. Kwaye akukho ndleko ibonakalayo kwezopolitiko kubaongameli okanye amalungu eCongress aqhubeka evotela imali ethe kratya ngezixhobo zenyukliya okanye ajonge phantsi izivumelwano ezibaphelayo.

Izisongelo ezivela kwi-Bomb azilihambanga. Ngapha koko, baye bekhula ngokuhamba kwexesha. Umongameli uTrump unegunya elilodwa ukuqala imfazwe yenyukliya. Wayekwazi ukuvelisa izixhobo zenyukliya kuqala ephendula ialam, engengozi zidityanisiwe ngezisongelo ze-cyber. Umkhosi woMoya uyakha kwakhona i-US umhlaba ojolise kumhlaba osisiseko se-dollar ezili-100 zeedola Nangona inokunyusa umngcipheko wokuqalisa imfazwe yenyukelo ngempazamo.

Iminyaka engamashumi asixhenxe anesihlanu emva kweHiroshima neNagasaki, sisiya kwicala elingelilo. Lixesha lokuba uluntu lwaseMelika lukhathalele malunga nemfazwe yenyukliya- kwakhona. Ukuba asiyenzi, iinkokheli zethu azizukuyenza. Ukuba asiyipheli iBomb, iBhombu iyakusiphelisa.