Isiqingatha sesigidi seetoni zemethane zonyuka kumbhobho owonakalisiweyo weNord Stream. Ifoto: Swedish Coast Guard
NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Februwari 22, 2023
Ekubeni ngoku imfazwe yaseUkraine ifikelela kwinqanaba lonyaka omnye ngoFebruwari 24, amaRashiya akalufumananga uloyiso lomkhosi kodwa ngokunjalo neNtshona ayizange ilufezekise usukelo lwayo kwicala lezoqoqosho. Xa iRussia yahlasela iUkraine, iUnited States kunye namahlakani ayo aseYurophu bafunga ukuba baza kuwisa izohlwayo ezaziza kwenza iRussia iguqe kwaye iyinyanzele ukuba irhoxe.
Izohlwayo zaseNtshona beziya kwenza i-Iron Curtain entsha, amakhulu eekhilomitha ukuya kwimpuma yaleyo indala, eyahlula iRashiya ekwanti, eyoyisiweyo, ephuthileyo kwiNtshona ehlangeneyo, eyoyisayo nenempumelelo. Ayiphelelanga nje ekumelaneni neRussia kuhlaselo lwezoqoqosho, kodwa izohlwayo ziye zakhula-zibetha kwawona mazwe awanyanzelisayo.
Izohlwayo zaseNtshona eRussia zanciphisa unikezelo lwe-oyile kunye negesi yendalo kwihlabathi jikelele, kodwa kwakhona kunyusa amaxabiso. Ngoko iRashiya yafumana inzuzo kumaxabiso aphezulu, nanjengoko umthamo wayo wokuthumela kumazwe angaphandle wawusehla. I-International Monetary Fund (IMF) iingxelo Uqoqosho lwaseRussia lungene kuphela nge-2.2% ngo-2022, xa kuthelekiswa ne-8.5% yokucutha ebenalo. yaqikelelwa, kwaye iqikelela ukuba uqoqosho lwaseRashiya luya kukhula ngokwenene nge-0.3% kwi-2023.
Kwelinye icala, uqoqosho lwase-Ukraine lucuthe nge-35% okanye ngaphezulu, ngaphandle kwe-46 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kuncedo lwezoqoqosho oluvela kubarhafi base-US abanesisa, ngaphezulu kwe-67 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kuncedo lomkhosi.
Uqoqosho lwaseYurophu nalo luthatha inyathelo. Emva kokukhula nge-3.5% ngo-2022, uqoqosho lwendawo ye-Euro lu kulindeleke Ukudodobala nokukhula kuphela nge-0.7% ngo-2023, ngelixa uqoqosho lwase-Bhritane kuqikelelwa ukuba luza kuncipha nge-0.6%. IJamani yayixhomekeke kakhulu kumandla aseRashiya angeniswa kumazwe angaphandle kunamanye amazwe amakhulu aseYurophu ngoko ke, emva kokukhula kancinci nge-1.9% ngo-2022, kuqikelelwa ukuba ukukhula okungenakuphikiswa kwe-0.1% ngo-2023. ahlawule malunga ne-40% ngaphezulu kwamandla ngo-2023 kunokuba yenzayo ngo-2021.
I-United States inefuthe elingaphantsi ngokuthe ngqo kuneYurophu, kodwa ukukhula kwayo kwehle ukusuka kwi-5.9% ngo-2021 ukuya kwi-2% ngo-2022, kwaye kuqikelelwa ukuba iqhubeke iyancipha, ukuya kwi-1.4% ngo-2023 kunye ne-1% ngo-2024. Ngeli xesha i-India, ehlala ingathathi hlangothi. ngelixa kuthengwa i-oyile evela eRashiya ngexabiso elithotyiweyo, kuqikelelwa ukuba igcina izinga layo lokukhula lika-2022 elingaphezulu kwe-6% ngonyaka kuyo yonke i-2023 kunye no-2024. I-China iye yaxhamla ekuthengeni i-oyile yaseRashiya ethotyiweyo kunye nokunyuka kwezorhwebo ngokubanzi kunye neRashiya ye-30% ngo 2022. uqoqosho China kulindeleke ukukhula nge-5% kulo nyaka.
Abanye abavelisi be-oyile kunye negesi bavune ingeniso ye-windfall kwimiphumo yezohlwayo. I-GDP yaseSaudi Arabia ikhule nge-8.7%, eyona nto ikhawulezayo kuwo wonke uqoqosho olukhulu, ngelixa iinkampani zeoyile zaseNtshona zihleka yonke indlela eya ebhankini ukuze idipozithi. $ 200 billion kwingeniso: I-ExxonMobil yenze i-56 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ingxelo yexesha lonke yenkampani yeoli, ngelixa uShell wenze i-40 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwaye iChevron kunye neTotal yafumana i-36 yeebhiliyoni zeedola inye. I-BP yenza "kuphela" i-28 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, njengoko ivale imisebenzi yayo eRashiya, kodwa iphinda kabini inzuzo yayo ye-2021.
Ngokuphathelele igesi yendalo, ababoneleli be-US LNG (igesi yendalo engamanzi) njengeCheniere kunye neenkampani ezinjengeTotal ezisasaza irhasi eYurophu Misela Ubonelelo lweYurophu lwerhasi yendalo yaseRussia enerhasi eqhekekileyo evela eUnited States, malunga namaxabiso aphindwe kane kumaxabiso ahlawulwa ngabathengi base-US, kunye eyoyikisayo iimpembelelo zemozulu zokwaphuka. Ubusika obupholileyo eYurophu kunye ne-850 yeebhiliyoni zeedola Uncedo lukarhulumente waseYurophu ezindlini nakwiinkampani zazisa amaxabiso okuthengisa amandla abuyele ezantsi ukuya kumanqanaba angama-2021, kodwa emva koko i spiked ngokuphindwe kahlanu ngaphezulu kwehlobo lika-2022.
Ngelixa imfazwe yabuyisela ukuzithoba kweYurophu kwi-US hegemony kwixesha elifutshane, ezi mpembelelo zehlabathi zokwenyani zemfazwe zinokuba neziphumo ezahlukileyo kwixesha elide. Umongameli waseFransi u-Emmanuel Macron Utshilo, “Kwimeko yanamhlanje ye-geopolitical, phakathi kwamazwe axhasa i-Ukraine, kukho iindidi ezimbini eziyilwe kurhwebo lwerhasi: abo bahlawula kakhulu kunye nabo bathengisa ngamaxabiso aphezulu… I-United States ngumvelisi wegesi etshiphu zithengisa ngexabiso eliphezulu… andiqondi ukuba ilungile loo nto.”
Esona senzo singenabubele nangakumbi yayikukumoshakala kwemibhobho yerhasi ephantsi kolwandle iNord Stream nezise irhasi yaseRussia eJamani. Seymour Hersh umbiko ukuba imibhobho yaqhushumbiswa yiUnited States, ngoncedo lweNorway—amazwe amabini aye ashiya iRashiya njengamazwe amabini aseYurophu. enkulu ababoneleli ngegesi yendalo. Xa kudityaniswe nexabiso eliphezulu lerhasi eqhekekileyo yase-US, oku kuye kwenzeka zikhutshwe umsindo phakathi koluntu lwaseYurophu. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, iinkokeli zaseYurophu zinokugqiba kwelokuba ikamva lalo mmandla kukuzimela geqe kwezopolitiko nakwezoqoqosho kumazwe ahlasela umkhosi wawo, yaye oko kuya kuquka iUnited States neRashiya.
Abanye abaphumeleleyo kwimfazwe yaseUkraine ngokuqinisekileyo baya kuba ngabenzi bezixhobo, abalawulwa kwihlabathi liphela yi-US "inkulu ezintlanu": iLockheed Martin, iBoeing, iNorthrop Grumman, iRaytheon kunye neGeneral Dynamics. Uninzi lwezixhobo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ezithunyelwe eUkraine zivela kwimpahla esele ikhona eUnited States nakumazwe eNATO. Ugunyaziso lokwakha iistokhwe ezinkudlwana ezitsha lubhabhe kwiCongress ngoDisemba, kodwa iikhontrakthi ezibangeleyo azikabonakali kumanani entengiso yeefemu zezixhobo okanye iingxelo zenzuzo.
Indawo yeReed-Inhofe izilungiso ukuya kuMthetho we-FY2023 weSizwe wokuGunyanyiswa koKhuseleko ogunyazisiweyo "ngexesha lemfazwe" iminyaka emininzi, iikontraka ezingabiziyo "zokuzalisa" izitokhwe zezixhobo ezithunyelwe eUkraine, kodwa izixa zezixhobo eziza kuthengwa zigqithise izixa ezithunyelwa eUkraine ukuya kuthi ga kwi-500 ukuya kwelinye. . Owayesakuba ligosa eliphezulu le-OMB uMarc Cancian ugqabaze wathi, “Oku akuthathi ndawo esikunike yona [eUkraine]. Kukwakha iimfumba zemfazwe enkulu yasemhlabeni [neRashiya] kwixesha elizayo.”
Ekubeni izixhobo zisandul 'ukuqalisa ukukhupha imigca yemveliso yokwakha ezi zigciniweyo, isikali seenzuzo zemfazwe ezilindelekileyo kushishino lwezixhobo zibonakaliswa kakuhle, okwangoku, ekunyuseni kwe-2022 kumaxabiso empahla yabo: I-Lockheed Martin, i-37%; iNorthrop Grumman, inyuke ngama-41%; I-Raytheon, inyuke nge-17%; kunye ne-General Dynamics, inyuke nge-19%.
Ngoxa amazwe neenkampani ezimbalwa ziye zazuza ingeniso kule mfazwe, amazwe akude nendawo yongquzulwano aye akhathazwa kukudodobala kwezoqoqosho. I-Russia kunye ne-Ukraine ziye zaba ngababoneleli ababalulekileyo bengqolowa, umbona, ioli yokupheka kunye nezichumisi kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi. Imfazwe kunye nezohlwayo ziye zabangela ukunqongophala kwazo zonke ezi mveliso, kunye namafutha okubahambisa, nto leyo eyenza amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi anyuke kakhulu.
Ke abanye abalahlekileyo abakhulu kule mfazwe ngabantu abakuMazantsi eGlobal abaxhomekeke kubo ku ngeniswa ukutya nezichumiso ezivela eRashiya naseUkraine ukuze nje ondle iintsapho zabo. I-Egypt kunye neTurkey zezona zithenga kumazwe angaphandle ingqolowa yase-Russian ne-Ukrainian, ngelixa ishumi elinambini lamazwe asemngciphekweni kakhulu axhomekeke phantse ngokupheleleyo kwi-Russia ne-Ukraine ngokubonelelwa kwawo ngengqolowa, ukusuka e-Bangladesh, e-Pakistan nase-Laos ukuya e-Benin, e-Rwanda nase-Somalia. Shumi elinantlanu Amazwe ase-Afrika angenise ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sengqolowa evela eRashiya naseUkraine ngo-2020.
Inyathelo le-Black Sea Grain Initiative edityaniswe yi-UN kunye neTurkey iye yathomalalisa ingxaki yokutya kwamanye amazwe, kodwa isivumelwano sihlala sinqabile. Kufuneka ihlaziywe yiBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN ngaphambi kokuba iphele ngo-Matshi 18, 2023, kodwa izohlwayo zaseNtshona zisathintela ukuthunyelwa kwe-fertilizer yaseRashiya, ekumele ukuba ikhululwe kwizohlwayo phantsi kwenyathelo lokutya okuziinkozo. Umphathi we-UN wobuntu uMartin I-Griffiths uxelele iAgence France-Presse nge-15 kaFebruwari ukuba ukukhulula ukuthunyelwa kwezichumiso zaseRussia "yeyona nto iphambili."
Emva konyaka wokuxhela kunye nokutshabalalisa e-Ukraine, sinokuvakalisa ukuba abaphumeleleyo kwezoqoqosho kule mfazwe: I-Saudi Arabia; I-ExxonMobil kunye nezinye izigebenga zeoyile; I-Lockheed Martin; kunye neNorthrop Grumman.
Abalahlekileyo, okokuqala, ngabantu abazinikeleyo baseUkraine, kumacala omabini emigca engaphambili, onke amajoni aphulukene nobomi babo kunye neentsapho ezilahlekelwe ngabathandekayo babo. Kodwa nakwikholamu yokulahleka bayasebenza kwaye abantu abahluphekayo kuyo yonke indawo, ngakumbi kumazwe akuMazantsi eHlabathi axhomekeke kakhulu kukutya kunye namandla avela kumazwe angaphandle. Okokugqibela kodwa kuncinci nguMhlaba, iatmosphere kunye nemozulu yawo-zonke zibingelelwe kuThixo weMfazwe.
Yiyo loo nto, njengokuba imfazwe ingena kunyaka wayo wesibini, kukho isikhalo esisanda ehlabathini sokuba amaqela akungquzulwano afumane izicombululo. Amazwi kaMongameli waseBrazil uLula abonisa loo mvakalelo yandayo. Xa wayenyanzelwa nguMongameli uBiden ukuba athumele izixhobo eUkraine, yena wathi, “Andifuni kungenela le mfazwe, ndifuna ukuyiphelisa.”
UMedea Benjamin kunye noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Imfazwe e-Ukraine: Ukwenza ingqiqo yongquzulwano olungenangqiqo, efumaneka kwi-OR Books ngoNovemba 2022.
UMedea uBenjamin ngumseki we CODEPINK yoxolo, kunye nombhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanya Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran.
UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi nge-CODEPINK kunye nombhali we Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.
